1.14.12

The 49ers have their work cut out for them today, as they face off against a fantastic offense, and will need to play well on both sides of the ball to have a chance to advance past this round. Having an extra week off to rest, and prepare is a huge advantage for them.

The Saints have been a different team on the road then in the friendly confines of the Super Dome, and the Drew Brees numbers on the road are very comparable to Alex Smiths numbers at home.

Brees road vs. Smith home in key passing efficiency indicators
Brees on road: 70.6% completions, 4.8% TD, 2.2% INT, 8.0 YPA, 100.7 rating
Smith at home: 62.7% completions, 5.7% TD 1.4% INT, 7.8 YPA, 99.8 rating

The 49ers defense should be able to keep them in this game if they can continue to play outstanding inside the 20. This year they allowed TD's on just 25% of Red Zone possessions at home (#1 in NFL) , and as good as the Saints offense is, on the road this year their Red Zone offense has struggled, ranking 26th in the NFL, scoring TD's on 43.75% of Red Zone possessions. They will need to do better offensively in the Red Zone as they have been horrible over the season, but have shown improvement over their last 3 games, and face off against a Saints team that was 31st in Red Zone defense, and allowed TD's on 73.68% of RZ drives on the road (62.79% overall)


I like the 49ers to come out focused and prepared and fully expect them to give the Saints all they can handle. I am concerned about the added pressure of a playoff game, and the experience on the Saints side of the field, however I like getting the 3 points in the 1st Half before Payton can make his halftime adjustments.

San Francisco +3 (-120) 1st Half

On them for the game my man, GL.

You take the half and give me the game GL! ::handshake::

::luck::

Not expecting Tebow to have the success this week as he did last week. Patriots have a big edge, not just due to the bye week, but having played the Broncos already a few weeks back, and the consultation of McDaniels.

Make no mistake, the Patriot defense is bad. Their schedule was soft (no wins against a wining team this year) But IMO Tebow is not the type of quarterback that will be able to have a big week thru the air against them, and that is how to beat the Patriots. I do not see Bellichick making the same mistakes the Steelers did against the Broncos, and Tom Brady and the Patriots offense, should be able to tee off on an extremely suspect Broncos pass defense ranking 28th in Defensive Passer Rating. I expect to see the Patriots come out with their foot down on the gas pedal, a big lead would add that much more pressure on the young Tebow, and force him into more passing situations. New England has been a poor defense in terms of yardage, however they have been able to come up with the big plays, ranking 3rd in the NFL in takeaways (2.1 per game, 2.4 at home) where as Denver ranks 25th in giveaways, coughing it up 1.8 times per game. Looking for Tebow mania to come crashing to earth tonight as the Patriots experience pays dividends.


New England -13.5 (-108)

also

Broncos Team Total UNDER 19 (-115)

San Francisco +3 (-120) 1st Half WIN


Nice not to have to sweat Drew Brees in the 2nd Half

San Francisco +3 (-120) 1st Half WIN
New England -13.5 (-108) WIN
Broncos TT Under 19 (-115) WIN

3-0



Playoffs: 4-5 (-3.85)

Nice job man!