9-2-08

LANG

TUESDAY

10 Dime - Mets

Free - Rays

Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (won 12 of L17 weeks)
My 15* play is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The Pirates traded OFs Xavier Nady and Jason Bay shortly before the end of July and promptly went 7-21 in the month of August, averaging a pathetic 2.93 RPG. When you own the NL's worst team ERA (5.23), as well as its worst bullpen ERA (4.71), not scoring runs is a 'death sentence!' The Pirates open the month of September on a 10-game losing streak (outscored), the longest active one in MLB and the team's longest since losing 13 straight in June 2006. Now let me give you the "quote of the year." Pittsburgh's general manager Neil Huntington said, "We don't tolerate losing. It's not OK." I wonder if anyone reminded him that the Pirates have not had a winning season since 1992, the longest drought in MLB? If the Pirates don't tolerate losing, than who does? Pittsburgh opens the new month with a three-game series at Cincinnati and the Reds are hardly world-beaters themselves. They are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Giants (scored 27 runs in the three wins) but they are only 61-76 for the season, including just 35-33 at home. The Pirates have won seven of the 12 meetings this year but let's remember that Pittsburgh is just 23-42 away from home this year, losing by the average score of 4.75-to-6.12. Ian Snell gets the start and he's been a huge disappointment this year. He won 14 games in '06 and despite going just 9-12 last year, owned a team-best 3.76 ERA. No much has gone right for him in '08 though, as he'll take a 5-10 mark with a 5.77 ERA into tonight's game. He's been dreadful on the road, going 2-7 with a 7.07 ERA in 14 starts (team is 5-9). He's 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA in three starts against the Reds in 2008 and 3-6 with a 5.58 ERA in his 10 career starts against them (team is 3-7). Starting for the Reds is Aaron Harang. Harang won 16 games in both '06 and '07 for the Reds and last year, the Reds went 24-10 (plus-$1,347) in his starts, making him MLB's biggest "money-maker." How quickly things can turn. Harang is just 4-14 with a 5.27 ERA in '08, as the Reds have gone 9-14 (minus-$602) in his starts. Harang has pitched well in his last two starts though, with a 2.08 ERA plus 13 Ks and just three walks. The Reds are off a good series vs the Giants and as for the Pirates, they are just the Pirates. NL Game of the week 15* Cin Reds.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (46-26 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins at 7:05 ET. The Twins have been on the road for quite some time and will begin the final leg of their 14-game trip tonight in Toronto. The Twins have gone 5-6 so far, playing the Angels, Mariners and A's. They now face the Blue Jays who have beaten them SIX straight times, including a three-game sweep in Minnesota back on May 13-15. The Twins enter this game at 77-60, tied with the White Sox for the AL Central lead and three games back of the Red Sox in the wild card chase. As for the Jays, their 70-66 record leaves them an impossible to make up 14 1/2 games behind the Rays in the AL East and also some 9 1/2 games behind the Red Sox. Tonight's starting pitchers are both rookie left-handers with one of them, Minnesota's Glen Perkins, making a run at this year's rookie-of-the-year award. Perkins had made just 23 relief appearances (less than 35 innings) in '06 and '07 before starting this year in the minors. He was called up in early May and the Twins promptly lost his first two starts. However, the team is 14-5 in his 19 starts since, making them 14-7 (plus-$925) in his 21 starts this year, which makes him MLB's 10th-best "money-maker" among starters. Perkins has pitched at least six innings in his last 11 outings, going 8-1 with a 3.56 ERA (team is 8-3). He's won his last five decisions and is 2-0 on Minnesota's current road trip. Toronto lefty David Purcey hasn't seen nearly as much action this year as Perkins. He made a start in Aril and another in May before joining the team for good in late July (this will be his seventh straight start). He's 2-5 with a 5.53 ERA in eight starts, with the Jays going 2-6. He is off his first career complete game though, losing a pitcher's duel with Matt Garza of the Rays 1-0 at Tampa last Wednesday (11 Ks / no walks). Incredibly, Purcey will be the SEVENTH straight lefty the Twins have faced and while they are just 3-3 their last six games, they are 27-19 vs left-handed starters this year, averaging a healthy 5.4 RPG. As for the Jays, they have really struggled vs lefties in night games in '08, going 7-18 while barely averaging above three runs per game. Las Vegas Insider on the Min Twins.

Good Luck...Larry

Ben Burns

8:05PM ET MLB 4* Best Milwaukee Brewers (-140) vs New York Mets
8:35PM ET MLB 4* Best San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies OVER 9.0 (-110)

Big Al

Whitesox

Ben Burns

8:05PM ET MLB 4* Best Milwaukee Brewers (-140) vs New York Mets
8:35PM ET MLB 4* Best San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies OVER 9.0 (-110)

indiancowboy


Atlanta/Seattle Over 154 (POD)

Frankly, I have no idea why this total is moving down, I thought the Seattle/Conn Total should not be moving down this past weekend but it was and I stayed away from it and it consequently went over. Given that, it just goes to show that you should roll with the research that you feel strong with. I am focusing heavily on football this weekend including getting all the research out by Thursday including the entire football card for the weekend. As per this play, look, Seattle comes off a loss at Connecticut and they are furious. Atlanta has lost 7 straight covers and they continue to struggle and getting beat at home. Atlanta will show effort today and will be an active dog - Seattle also scores plenty of points as well as remember this is similar to the Phoenix game as the Dream are a poor woman's Phoenix Mercury team except they lose ballgames at a higher rate. Atlanta has had no problem allowing teams to score well above 80 points and they consequently love a high paced game and score above 70 points. Having said this, look for a game that hits the mid 160's when all is said and done. The over is 4-0 for the Storm on the road of late and the over is 4-0 for the Dream as of late as well.