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Monday 5/6/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 6, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)
2-Great Somewhere (5-1)-Paul Stafford trainee gets some needed class relief and lands at the same level of its last win coming back on 2-28. Joe B should get a close-up seat when the wings fold and be in the mix at the wire.
3-Bugaboo Lou (8/5)-Likes to go gate to wire and could do so as was the case in its last start on 4-23. This will be 2nd time for Lasix, steps-up but should have the ability to down this bunch.
5-Ocean Ridge N (5/2)-The 10-year-old workhorse had 17 wins in 44 races last year but at Yonkers is just 2-11 lifetime. Tonight, lands in a spot to extend that total. Should be heard from unless there is a battle early on with #3 for the lead.
Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)
3-Hemsworth N (7/2)-Got a very good steer by Scott Zeron in last as he pushed the button at the right time and took control. It was an impressive effort, now Jordan Stratton takes over for Zeron and he could follow a similar plan.
4-Captivate Hanover (4-1)-In the last 43 starts this veteran has won 15 times. Moved up to this level and had no shot off the trip he got. Will give him another chance and the price should be right to take a swing.
Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)
4-YS Do It Right 5-1-The Stratton brothers could have this one ready to deliver in the first start after a claim. Won 2 back at this level and has been competitive with a decent post. Will look to fade the 9/5 choice #2, Motive Hanover as his form seems to have fallen off and will probably still be bet hard.
5-My Ultimate Byron 7/2-Was claimed by the Dilloian barn for $30k off a win. Was pushed up in class and found the water too deep versus the $40k claimers. This barn is ice cold, but Byron is in a good spot to cash the top check and Matt Kakaley takes a seat.
Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)
4-Real Willey (5/2)-Willey was caught at the wire after drawing off by 6 lengths. He might have been a handful to rate last week. But if he gets the top this time my take is Joe B won't let him burn every drop of gas.
5-San Domino A (6-1)-Raced well in the last 2 at this level and then was claimed by the Herrera barn. Found the $50k claimers tough and now drops down to face the $40's. Will look for a big try as Mark MacDonald gets the call tonight.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
2,3,5/3,4/4,5/4,5
Total Bet=$24
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Thistledown - Race #6
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #3 Miz Keeta |
Forward player might be in a perfect spot to prompt the pace the whole way, and she was sharp in the layoff score back in March at Mahoning. Edge in a short, but fun, field. |
| #4 Officially Yours |
She couldn't see it out at 4/5 last time, but she's another with some pace to be in the mix early on. Feel like the three favorites are going to battle this one out from the start. |
| #1 Exactitude |
She can win this one, too, but I worry she's going to take the worst of the pace battle with the other listed pair likely to be breathing down her neck the whole way. |
| Race Summary |
Miz Keeta might be slightly more playable than the 1/5 offering in the score last time out, and she might still have some upside with just the three lifetime starts under her belt. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #4 Sharp Shot |
Not sure he's going to be much of a price, but he drilled claimers at Keeneland last time out and should find a really good spot up on the pace while moving around two turns. |
| #5 Shortly |
Took him a long time to graduate, but he makes a little bit of sense right back if the top choice can't see it out. Pressing trip gives him some hope. |
| #6 Sergeant Countzler |
The form started trending the wrong way earlier this year, and now he returns after three months off. Could see him bringing something better today off the freshening -- he ran well here last season. |
| Race Summary |
Sharp Shot and Shortly should be up on the splits early today, and I assume one of them will be able to land this. Sergeant Countzler could come along for a piece. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #3 Lucky Victor |
His form has been all over the place, but there are a couple tries on the page that might stack up well enough here while getting into claiming company for the first time. Might wake up. |
| #1 Mor Crafty |
He's probably supposed to be tough with his better stuff, but he's prone to giving away ground late in his races and could be vulnerable again in the final yards today. |
| #7 Synergistic |
She wasn't running poorly with special weight company here last fall, but she's back off the break for a tag and might be well spotted for the return. Take a look at her. |
| Race Summary |
Lucky Victor didn't bring anything off the bench, but he might be able to move forward today with that race under his belt, and the price may still be appealing enough while trying this level for the first time. |
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Louisiana Downs - Race #1
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #6 LONG SHOT LOUISE (5-2) |
Could prove best of class droppers with duplicate of her race two back. |
| #4 GET GUSSIED UP (8-5) |
Bumped at break, in tight on turn in heavily-bet debut, gets Lasix again. |
| #2 DISCREET DEAL (8-1) |
Flashed speed against better at Fair Grounds but faded badly. |
| Race Summary |
LONG SHOT LOUISE ran second against Louisiana-breds two starts back in Maiden Special Weight company and the winner, Tensas Lu Lu, just ran second as the favorite in a $7,500/nw2 claiming race at Lone Star Park. She should sit a good stalking trip at a suitable distance in her 13th try to win. Bet to win and place. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #2 MO HAWK MAN (3-1) |
Ran best races here in fall but form tailed off against better at Fair Grounds. |
| #6 SIMPLICATED (8-1) |
Prepped at FG, debuted in stakes company at Evangeline, gets Lasix again. |
| #5 CLASSY SHIPMAN (5-2) |
Towers over field on paper, returns at age 5 off 1-1/2-year layoff. |
| Race Summary |
MO HAWK MAN ran second to 1-to-9 favorite Sea Force (3-10, $33k) when last seen here in August. He circled the turn 5-wide, took aim and held off the deep closers for the place spot. He back-pedaled in higher-tagged sprints at Fair Grounds this winter. Bet to win and place. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #1 HOWARD’S GRIT (9-5) |
Form reversal produced 11-1 upset on the lawn, taken to repeat. |
| #5 BRIARTOWN (3-1) |
Bid to stretch lead and got caught, can get the jump on main rivals. |
| #4 KLIPTOMANIAC (4-1) |
Strong turf numbers, ran third in route dominated by deep closers. |
| Race Summary |
HOWARD’S GRIT awakened in his second start on turf, saving ground and running down a rival who drew clear in the stretch at this distance. He has the bloodlines to do it again. Get to win and place and play 1-4 and 1-5 exactas. |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
| Finger Lakes - Race 3 |
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * PICK 6 WITH CARRYOVER ($1 Minimum: Races 3-4-5-6-7-8) |
| Optional Claiming $20,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 2:13P |
| FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 6, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
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Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FLYING EMPEROR is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLYING EMPEROR: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. TRA LAD: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing of f a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. LADY'S GOLDEN GUY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. H orse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. THE INSTITUTE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. |
4 |
FLYING EMPEROR |
8/5 |
4/1 |
3 |
TRA LAD |
7/2 |
5/1 |
1 |
LADY'S GOLDEN GUY |
2/1 |
6/1 |
2 |
THE INSTITUTE |
9/2 |
10/1 |
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
5 |
WARRIORS REVENGE |
5 |
8/1 |
Front-runner |
98 |
91 |
90.0 |
87.0 |
79.0 |
4 |
FLYING EMPEROR |
4 |
8/5 |
Stalker |
97 |
88 |
99.2 |
88.4 |
83.4 |
1 |
LADY'S GOLDEN GUY |
1 |
2/1 |
Stalker |
95 |
85 |
91.4 |
81.8 |
76.3 |
3 |
TRA LAD |
3 |
7/2 |
Stalker |
95 |
98 |
76.0 |
87.6 |
81.6 |
2 |
THE INSTITUTE |
2 |
9/2 |
Trailer |
99 |
92 |
54.4 |
85.0 |
82.0 |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer ParkPURCHASE
| Mountaineer Park - Race 4 |
2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 5 (races 4-8) $.50 Wheel |
| Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 8:15P |
| FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Dominant Class. FREE RAMBLING MAN is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FREE RAMBLING MAN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. |
1 |
FREE RAMBLING MAN |
6/5 |
6/5 |
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
3 |
WHOOP GONE |
3 |
20/1 |
Front-runner |
0 |
0 |
69.8 |
32.6 |
21.1 |
1 |
FREE RAMBLING MAN |
1 |
6/5 |
Alternator/Stalker |
89 |
79 |
49.0 |
71.8 |
67.3 |
6 |
SINALOA |
6 |
8/1 |
Alternator/Stalker |
71 |
66 |
41.9 |
53.1 |
48.6 |
7 |
BROADWAY RED |
7 |
8/1 |
Alternator/Trailer |
65 |
64 |
37.8 |
45.8 |
39.8 |
2 |
DANELAND |
2 |
6/1 |
Alternator/Trailer |
56 |
49 |
33.1 |
46.7 |
35.7 |
4 |
MR BINGO |
4 |
8/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
0 |
0 |
55.9 |
42.7 |
35.7 |
8 |
MAKE THE BED |
8 |
10/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
0 |
0 |
55.0 |
42.7 |
33.7 |
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,400 Class Rating: 40
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#4 CRYSTAL M (ML=2/1)
CRYSTAL M - Faced tougher last race out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders. Last time out, finished fifth in the mud at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Have to do better in this race. Look at this pattern of improvement. 23/32/36 are the last three Equibase speed figures.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TITEBLUEJEANS (ML=8/5), #1 SPOOKY LITTLE GIRL (ML=5/2), #5 STARLITESLEW (ML=9/2),
TITEBLUEJEANS - You think this animal is going to be victorious just because she's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's class figure. SPOOKY LITTLE GIRL - Didn't look so hot last time out. Probably won't do much running in today's event. Ran squirrelly on Mar 27th. Be leery this time out. STARLITESLEW - Hard to put any money on this mare on the win end. Likes to finish in the money though.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
Play #4 CRYSTAL M to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
None |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
None |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
None |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race TrackPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 55
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 2 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. 5# A CLASFS.$4,000 Y DEBTS ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 2 SHEA D SECRET 2/1
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# 3 CATIRUSIA 15/1
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# 1 LADY RUNNER 7/2
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SHEA D SECRET is my choice. Lately Figueroa has been hot which may give the edge to this filly. She has very good class ratings, averaging 66, and has to be considered in this race. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this racer look very strong in this contest. CATIRUSIA - This horse has some longshot angles going for her. LADY RUNNER - Looks respectable to be close to the front end at the first call. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Diaz will probably have this filly in excellent position to win the contest.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 5:20pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 86
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#5 BRIARTOWN (ML=3/1)
#3 BACK BAYOU (ML=10/1)
#1 HOWARD'S GRIT (ML=9/5)
BRIARTOWN - Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the first try on Feb 21st. Should be in touch with the animal even better in this race. You always have to be on the lookout for revenue generating rider/conditioner tandems; we have it right here. BACK BAYOU - Vargas rode this horse for the first time last time out and comes right back this time around. A repeat of that latest performance on April 19th where he notched a speed rating of 83 looks good enough to win in this race. HOWARD'S GRIT - I seem to always make money betting Wilson horses on the grass. That barn has a solid win percent for this distance/surface. Early speed is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Running 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This horse has the tops in the bunch. This colt is in fine condition. Finished first on April 17th.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KLIMTOMANIAC (ML=4/1), #7 BENDETTIJOE (ML=6/1),
KLIMTOMANIAC - In this type of situation, this steed's inability to close in the last event is a matter of concern. Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint races in order to bet on him. BENDETTIJOE - Tough to bet on this racer in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint affair before you bet on him in a race of 7 1/2 furlongs. Recorded a mediocre speed fig last race out in a $16,000 Claiming race on Mar 3rd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating.
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BACK BAYOU - The TrackMaster Power Rating tells me that this beautiful animal looks good versus the rest of this field. I'm making a wager.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
Bet on #5 BRIARTOWN to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Box [3,5] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6 |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
None |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 49
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
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# 2 LADY RASHEN 4/1
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# 8 AUNT KENDRA 3/1
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# 4 RUN DOTTIE RUN 10/1
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LADY RASHEN is the strongest wager in this race. The average class fig alone makes this entrant a solid choice. I can't pass on this filly given one of the best jock and trainer combos on the grounds. AUNT KENDRA - Like the finishing positions in the last several contests. RUN DOTTIE RUN - This racer is at the top in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface.
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Do you know where I can find the MLB stats you use to post? Specifically, the stats that included the first 5 records
