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WEEK 6 NFL
NY Giants -3 (-123)
This should be the Bills toughest road game to date (Won at KC, lost at Cinci), and will be playing a NYGiants team that looked and played like crap last week, in losing SU at home as a DD favorite against the Seahawks. I love playing home teams as short favorites or dogs that are off a poor showing, against teams that won, and are in the public favor. Bills are 4-1 SU this year, and have benefited from winning the turnover battle in each game. However, their defense has given up more than 450 yards in offense in every game since week 2, and will be with out starting LB Shawn Merriman. The Giants should be able to move the ball effectively here today against a soft Bills run defense (31st in NFL, allowing 5.54 yards/carry), and thru the air, where despite last weeks game, Eli has been quite good at moving the ball. The Giants have struggled in 3rd downs this year, but should find the going easier with more 3rd and shorts against the Bills soft front.
Both teams will head into bye weeks after today, and the Giants should have extra focus this week to keep pace in the NFC East, and attone for last week. Buffalo is 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS last 11 pre bye weeks, NYGiants have won 6 of last 8 pre bye game (just 1-4 ATS as favorite thou).
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Leaning this way too my man. GL today
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UNDER 47 (-108) Philadelphia/Washington
Big Game here for the division. If Washington can pull it out at home, they can be in the drivers seat for the NFC East crown, as well as put a stake thru the heart of the Eagles season. Washington's defense has been the key to their season, and will be amped up for a chance to erase the memory of the last time the Eagles came to town, a 59-28 beat down on MNF last year, and had an extra week to prepare. (Washington 9-2 under last 11 games.) Turnovers by Vick and the offense, and an inablility to tackle and stop anyone on the defensive side of the ball have derailed the dream team, and I expect Andy Reid to try to control the time of possession more today, and limit the the exposure of his defense which gave up 31 last week to the Bills. (Eagles 6-2 under L8 after allowing 30+) Philly has issues with their offensive line, esp. at the tackles, and will need to highlight their running to keep Vick upright and in 3rd and manageable situations. Washingintons offense should be able to find room to run, and will also try to control the clock to limit Vicks opportunities.
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Bumping GMEN to a 2*
2* NYG -3 (-123)
1* Under 47 iggles/skins
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Tampa Bay +7 (-125)
Tough spot for the Saints as they are on the road for their 3rd straight game (2nd stright div game). Tampa could not have looked worse last week at San Fran, and the public has been pounding the Saints at nearly 80% clip. An interesting trend I will plagerize is
teams that lose to the spread by 25 points or more are 96-54-5 ATS the next week since 2001, including 73-26-3 ATS for teams that have a winning percentage of .333 or better
Buying it up a half to +7
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Dallas Cowboys +7 (-113)
Lot of points to lay to a hungry talented offensive team off a bye, even for the Brady bunch. Cowboys 2 losses are by a combined 7 points, and have played in 10 straight games decided by 4 or fewer. Last time New England did not score 30+ points was agaisnt the defensive coordinator now calling the shots for Big D's, D. Cowgirls make enough plays in this one to hang around and have a shot at the upset in New England.
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Love seeing this bro, also this is the first week the Cowboys defense is completely healthy. GL!
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2* NY Giants -3 PUSH
UNDER 47 PhiLLY/Wash WIN
Tampa Bay +7 WIN
Dallas +7 WIN
3-0-1 +3 Units
Reg Season 13-5-1 (+8.40)
NFLx 8-3 (+5.04)
A good day, and a hair away from a great day.
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