9-22-08

Brandon Lang

MONDAY
10 Dime Jets



FREE - Jets/Chargers OVER

Dr Bob



SAN DIEGO (-8.5) 27 NY Jets 17
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-22 - Stats Matchup
The Chargers have lost each of their first two games in the final minute, but they should notch their first of many wins this week against the Jets. San Diego’s offense is better than ever with Philip Rivers averaging an impressive 9.5 yards per pass play in leading an attack that has averaged 7.3 yards per play against the Panthers and Broncos. The Jets have been good defensively, allowing 4.4 yppl to the Dolphins and Patriots, but I don’t expect them to hold down the Chargers tonight. New York’s offense hasn’t exactly been the aerial display that many expected (I didn’t) when the Jets signed Brett Favre, as the Jets have averaged a modest 5.3 yppl in their first two games. San Diego’s defense doesn’t figure to be nearly as strong without star LB Shawne Merriman, who decided to have surgery on his ailing knee after being ineffective in week 1. The Chargers have allowed 6.0 yppl to Carolina and Denver, but I still rate that unit as a bit better than average. Overall my ratings favor San Diego by 10 points and there are situations favoring both sides in this game. I’ll lean slightly with the Chargers to get their first victory.

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (now 56-33 since May 26 with MLB Insiders!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.Almost everyone will remember that last season the Phillies went 13-4 down the stretch and won the NL East on the final day of the regular season, while the Mets lost 12 of their final 17. New York is not in a 'free fall" this September but Philadelphia has erased a 3 1/2-game deficit in the division and with a 5-2 win yesterday afternoon in Florida, has won NINE of its last 10 games to take a 1 1/2 game lead in the NL East into the season's final week. More good news comes Philly's way in that Phillies couldn't ask for a better way to end the season than back-to-back three-game home series with the Braves (69-87) and the then the Nationals (58-98). First things first. The Phillies swept a three-game series at Turner Field (9/16-18) to finish the season 9-0 in Atlanta this season, giving the Phillies a 13-2 lead in this year's season series with the Braves. Atlanta will 'limp' into this series at 26-49 on the road in '08, with their minus-$2,136 moneyline mark representing the most any team in all of MLB has lost this season away from home. Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for Atlanta and the pitcher who the team acquired from a trade with Detroit before the season began, has struggled lately. Jurrjens allowed three ERs or less in 19 of his first 24 starts this year but in his last six outings, has allowed three ERs or less just TWO times, allowing 22 ERs over 30 innings of work for a 6.60 ERA during that span. That's doesn't spell good news against the red-hot Phils, who have averaged six runs per game in winning NINE of their last 10 games overall and for a pitching staff which has held opponents to three runs or less in EIGHT of their most recent nine wins. Jurrjens will be facing a Philadelphia team which has averaged 6.6 RPG in their last 11 games against the Braves, batting .308 and hitting 22 HRs. Speaking of pitching, lefty JA Happ (1-0, 4.24 ERA) gets the start for the Phils. Happ pitched six scoreless innings in Philadelphia's 6-1 over Atlanta on Wednesday night, notching his first career win. He allowed three hits, walked one and struck out two in his third start this year and fourth of his career. Happ is replacing struggling Kyle Kendrick in the rotation and was recalled from Triple A on September 1 (third time TY he's been with the big club). Happ's posted a 2.12 ERA in his three starts this year (4 ERs in 17 IP), with Philadelphia winning all three. As already mentioned, the Braves are a terrible road team and they are also just 19-31 in '08 when facing a lefty starter, including a 3-11 mark in road night games (averaging 3.6 RPG). Las Vegas Insider Phi Phillies.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner (6-1 MLB run the L4 days!)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on LA Angels at 10:10 ET. The Angels and Mariners open a four-games series tonight, concluding the season-series between the two AL West rivals. What a difference a year makes. The Angels won the AL West last year but the Mariners finished '07 with 88 wins (just six games behind LA) while going plus-$1,924 vs the moneyline, making Seattle MLB's 2nd-biggest "money-maker." The Angels cruised to the AL West title again in '08 (own MLB's best record of 96-59 and a division lead of 21 1/2 games over second-place Texas), while the Mariners come into this game (minus-$3,701 against the moneyline for the year, the worst mark in MLB), a half-game worse than the Nationals (who own MLB's poorest record), 10 1/2 games worse than any other AL team and a ridiculous 39 games worse than the Angels! Seattle will also open this series on an 11-game losing streak, getting outscored 62-27. The team's home mark is 31-43 and its minus-$1,712 money-line mark is also MLB's worst home record. Seattle will give the ball to Ryan Rowland-Smith (4-2, 3.53 ERA), who has made 45 appearances in '08, including 10 starts. He's made eight consecutive starts since the beginning of August and while he hasn't pitched poorly, the Mariners are 2-6 in those games. He'll face an LA team which is MLB's best road team at 47-30 and by far its best moneyline team on the road with a plus-$1,871 mark. LA has also done great against lefties in '08, posting a 32-15 record! Ervin Santana (15-6, 3.33 ERA) pitched the finale of the most recent series between the two teams, allowing two ERs and six hits over seven innings but leaving without a decision in that 4-3 LA win on September 14. He hasn't pitched since, so he's well-rested as the Angels look to "set their rotation" for the upcoming postseason. It's been quite ayear for Santana, who after solid seasons of 12-8 and 16-8 with the Angels in '05 and '06, fell to 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA last year. He was just horrific away from Anaheim last year, as the Angels went 3-11 in his road starts, while Santana posted an 8.87 ERA. Many wondered if he would even make the team this year but Santana responded with a super season in which he was named to the All Star teamand most impressively, has figured out his problems on the road. He'll take a 10-2 road mark (3.16 ERA) into this game. What's NOT to like about the Angels in this one? Weekly Wipeout Winner LA Angels.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Prime Time Delight-NYJ/SD (PERFECT 3-0 on MNF in '08!)
My Prime Time Delight is on the SD Chargers at 8:35 ET. The Chargers opened 1-3 in '07 under Norv Turner and the chants of "We want Marty" quickly began. However, Turner got this talented team turned around (with more than a little help from LT and Rivers) and the Chargers wound up in the AFC championship game, where they lost in a very competitive game to the Patriots, despite numerous star players being hurt (LT, Gates and Rivers). San Diego was among an elite group of favorites to win in the AFC at the start of the year but in "crushing fashion," the team's opened 0-2. San Diego fell behind in Week 1 at home to the Panthers but were led back by Rivers, taking a 24-19 lead (three TDs and 0 INTs). However, the Chargers were edged on literally, the game's final play, when Delhomme connected on an unlikely TD pass. Rivers was terrific again in Week 2 at Denver, throwing for a career-high 377 yards (with three more TDs). Sparked by Darren Sproles' 317 all-purpose yards, the Chargers again overcame an early deficit to have the "game in hand" (38-31) in the final minutes. This time, a fumble by Broncos QB Jay Cutler was incorrectly whistled dead as an incomplete pass, allowing Denver to score very late and win the game by converting a two-point play. As for the Jets, they won their opener in Miami in less than impressive fashion and then were beaten by the Brady-less Pats in Week 2, in Matt Cassell's first start since high school. It should be pointed out that yesterday, in Cassell's second career start, the Pats were thumped at home (ending a 21-game regular season winning streak) by the Dolphins, who had lost 11 straight road games. There are many question marks surrounding the Jets, the first being are they going to "take the handcuffs off" Brett Favre? Conservative play-calling has hurt the team in each of the first two weeks. Favre (375 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) has a 104.1 QB rating and a 68.8 completion percentage but the team's averaged just 15.0 PPG. WRs Cotchery (82 catches in each of the last two years) and Coles (reportedly still pouting over the treatment of Pennington) each have just four catches, while second-year player Chansi Stuckey leads the team in receiving with just six receptions (two TDs).The OL has allowed five sacks and RB Thomas Jones just doesn't look the same as when he was in Chicago. San Diego's defense has underachieved so far (an understatement) but this is a talented group. Offensively, LT has "toe problems" but Rivers took over as the leader of this team playing through a painful injury in last year's AFC title game (while LT sat on the sidelines with a less serious injury) and he's off to a terrific start (six TDs / one INT / 122.5 QB rating). "Must win" doesn't mean "will win" but these are desperate times for San Diego and it can't go overlooked that Rivers is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS at home as a starting QB. Favre may be 5-0 all-time in head-to-head meetings with the Chargers but "that was THEN and this is NOW!" Prime Time Delight 15* SD Chargers.

Good Luck...Larry

BURNS
BIG GAME ALERT

I'm laying the points with SAN DIEGO. The public will see Brett Favre's team getting all these points on a Monday night and will be quick to back the underdog Jets. The Chargers are favored by this much for good reason though. This is a San Diego team which has been very close the last couple of years and which was expected to be a serious contender for the Super Bowl this season. They could easily be 2-0 (and should be at least 1-1) but instead are 0-2. That makes this an absolutely critical game. That's particularly true when considering that no team this millennium has made it to the playoffs after starting 0-3 - the Bills were the last to do so and that was back in 1998. While Favre was fairly impressive in his opener, he struggled last week. The Jets lost 19-10 at home vs. the Patriots. After watching the Patriots get crushed 38-13 by Miami - the Jets' loss arguably looks even worse. Favre will face another formidable defense this week. While the Chargers defense does miss Merriman, they are still a very strong unit and they'll be looking to make amends for their performance through the first two weeks. Keep in mind that prior to Week 1 (when Carolina got 26) the Chargers had held seven straight opponents here to 21 points or less and six of those opponents to 14 points or less. Those seven opponents averaged a mere 11.7 points. In other words, this defense is much better than it has shown, particularly here at home. On the other side of the ball, QB Rivers is looking better than ever. Through two games, he already has six touchdown passes and 594 passing yards to go along with an impressive 122 QB rating. It's true that Tomlinson hasn't been his usual 'super' self. However, he's had an extra week to get healthy and I expect the bright lights to bring out his best. He was quoted as saying: "...I'm hoping that it's going to make big progress this week and by Monday night hopefully I'll be as close to 100 percent as possible... " Despite failing to cover in Week 1 vs. Carolina, the Chargers are still a highly profitable 8-1 SU/ATS the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 point range. During the same stretch, the Chargers have gone a terrific 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS when coming off a game vs. a divisional opponent. Look for them to improve on those numbers with a double-digit victory on primetime. *GOW

Root

Chairman - Sd Chargers

Millionaire - Ny Mets

PRIVATE PLAYERS (gavazzi)
2* opinion
Jets