Wildcard Saturday

Atlanta +1 (-105)

Too much balance on offense for the Falcons. I hate the line movement on this game, as well as backing a rookie QB on the road for his firstplayoff game, but Matt Ryan has been nothing short of fantastic, despite his rookie status. Arizona is 30th in the NFL in Defensive Passer Rating, and has not been able to run the ball effectively this year, ranking 31st in the NFL gaining just 3.46 yards/rush. Michael Turner and the Falcons should be able to sustain drives and keep Warner off the field, with Turner keeping the Falcons in 3rd and managable situations for his young QB. Arizona ranks near the bottom in opponents 3rd down conversion rate (28th) allowing 1st downs 44.4% of the time. The Falcons counter on offense, ranking 6th in the NFL, converting 43.4% of the time. I lean to the Under but not playing the total.

PROP BET:

1st TD in game scored by Jerious Norwood -- pays 10-1

BOL on the play Richard!

BOL today Richard!

ADDING

Atlanta ML +120
Atlanta +3 (-120)

San Diego ML +105

The Chargers lead the league in passing yards per attempt, and bring a 3-4 defense that Peyton Manning has struggled against in the playoffs. The Charger offense ranks fourth in 3rd down conversions (45.9%) and will be going against a Colts defense that allows teams to convert 47.4% of 3rd down opportunities. On defense the Chargers should be able to stop the running attack of Indy that ranks dead last in yards per rush, and commit more defenders to stopping league MVP Peyton Manning.

The Dog in this fight is 6-0 ATS recently, and the Colts are just 1-4 ATS the last 5 games. San Diego is 21-5 SU at home over the last 3 years, and 7-3 SU revenging a loss over the past 3 years (2-0 this year).

Lean to the UNDER 49.5

Colts UNDER last 4 road playoff games, and 4-1 Under last 5 against AFC foes

Chargers UNDER 6-1 last 7 in January, 6-2-1 UNDER last 8 against the AFC

Atlanta +1 (-105) LOSS
Lean UNDER LOSS
PROP BET:
1st TD in game scored by Jerious Norwood -- pays 10-1 LOSS


San Diego ML +105 WIN
Lean UNDER WIN



What a great start to the playoffs, with both games being contested the entire way. This year should be one of the greats for pro football. Eat your heart out NCAA. Hopefully tomorrow brings more of the same.