Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
You know my feelings on the WEC... but I am trying to be a little looser.
I am looking @ Courtney Buck vs. Fredson Paixao- Paixao to win
and Jorgensen should be a lock.
If the odds are right on either or both of those, I am going to make a play.
I agree that Cruz could win that, though I am not betting it.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
I have been looking at this card and theres no way imo Bowles will be -135 .I was thinking closer to -300 but maybe I'm crzy
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
I have been looking at this card and theres no way imo Bowles will be -135 .I was thinking closer to -300 but maybe I'm crzy
Have you seen Cruz fight?
If Bowles is -300 then that should be Cruz around +220 and I would completely be all over Cruz at that price. I'll just say that I only hope you're right, Luke.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by MMA_scientist
I am looking @ Courtney Buck vs. Fredson Paixao- Paixao to win
and Jorgensen should be a lock.
Jorgensen fucked up my bet on Mizugaki last time around.
I'll have to look at these fights. The problem for me and the WEC is that a lot of times you can't find the fights so it's really difficult to do research.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
I have been looking at this card and theres no way imo Bowles will be -135 .I was thinking closer to -300 but maybe I'm crzy
Have you seen Cruz fight?
If Bowles is -300 then that should be Cruz around +220 and I would completely be all over Cruz at that price. I'll just say that I only hope you're right, Luke.
i could be way off .I'll be the first to admit I dont know much about WEC and have mostly just watched videos on the fighters
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
Quote:
Originally Posted by MMA_scientist
I am looking @ Courtney Buck vs. Fredson Paixao- Paixao to win
and Jorgensen should be a lock.
Jorgensen fucked up my bet on Mizugaki last time around.
I'll have to look at these fights. The problem for me and the WEC is that a lot of times you can't find the fights so it's really difficult to do research.
I expect Jorgenson to be a massive favorite- probably at least -350.
Buck is like Houston Alexander junior. Paixao is a bjj guy. It is possible for Buck to KO him in the opening minute, but if he does not do so, he will lose. I think the line will be closer, but still pretty steep. I will be on Paixao for anything under -200 for sure though.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
I went ahead and took Cruz for .75u @ +235.
Hesitant to pull the trigger on Torres at that price, even though I do think he will win.
Kind of hoping that Pulver will be pushed into underdog territory.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
All my bookmaker money is on Anderson Silva. I have to wait for 5 dimes. At current odds, all I like is Vasquez and Roop, maybe Koch.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
I went ahead and took Cruz for .75u @ +235.
Hesitant to pull the trigger on Torres at that price, even though I do think he will win.
Kind of hoping that Pulver will be pushed into underdog territory.
Pulver is the dog now. Bowles opened at -310 so I guess I wasnt crazy
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
I don't know who half of these guys are.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by zY|
I don't know who half of these guys are.
you and me both
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
I usually do horrible betting the WEC, but Torres may be a play for me.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
I usually avoid these events as well, but I am trying to loosen up a little.
Pulled the trigger on Jorgenson @ -390 for 5u- I simply see no way for buck to win.
I am thinking about Cruz at those odds... Paixao came in a lot higher than I expected. I thought he would be like -230, so I am gonna wait there.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
Pulver is the dog now. Bowles opened at -310 so I guess I wasnt crazy
Indeed, sir. You were right. I like it. I immediately rushed to Bookmaker and by the time I hit the "submit" button Cruz had already dropped from +250 to +235. I still like that bet, though.
I see Pulver is now +120. If that line holds until I get home, then I'll take him for .5u. Pulver's my man.
If Torres stays at -270 then I'll jump on him, too. I think he wins this one probably 80% of the time, so that's a good price. I just don't think Benavidez is going to be able to deal with Torres' height/reach/experience/pace.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Parlays for WEC
Lammas, Paixao, Castillo, Koch, Jorgensen, Bart, Davis, Vasquez, Torres and Bowles .03u to win 5.93u
Lammas, Paixao, Castillo, Jorgensen, Vasquez, Torres and Bowles .16u to win 1.76u
Bart, Davis, Vasquez, Torres, and Bowles .06u for 1.16u
Total risk for parlays is .26u.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
I got 5U on Jorgensen
I am definitely considering and likely to bet on Bowles. Cruz hasn't finished ANY of his last 4 opponents in the WEC, and I highly doubt he is going to start with Bowles. Bowles has a chin of iron, fists of steel, strong wrestling, and strong subs. I just can't see Cruz fending him off for five rounds and winning the fight. Bowles has steamrolled top guys like Torres, Page, Ribeiro, Galvao, and Valencia finishing all of them and dominating. I keep reading about Cruz's reach and everything, but I am sure Torres had a pretty good reach on him as well
I won't even consider touching the Torres fight. For one, that is one of my biggest losses of all time before I learned about betting conservatively. Secondly, he barley beat Mizugaki, and Mizugaki seemed like top of the food chain after that performance only to get a controversial split win over Curran and lose to Scott J. Torres should be able to win but if he can't KO or sub Joseph, then Benavidez may win on points with TD's. Not to mention Torres had his lights turned off in that last fight and was knocked down fairly easily. Not to mention Benavidez has several different subs on his record so his sub defense should be decent, and Torres weakness in wrestling is Joseph's strength which should always be red flag went betting IMO.
I would like to stay conservative on this card because I will be dropping loads (haha) on the UFC on VS card.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Holy shit!
Pulver at +145 on Bodog. I really hope that holds until I get home. I can't imagine it staying that high for long. He's a legend fighting a guy who's 0-2 in the WEC.
Re: WEC 47: Bowles VS Cruz
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
Holy shit!
Pulver at +145 on Bodog. I really hope that holds until I get home. I can't imagine it staying that high for long. He's a legend fighting a guy who's 0-2 in the WEC.
I wouldn't touch that line with the governments money! Vasquez may be 0-2 but both of those losses were to really good guys and by a split decision. So that means it was close enough that one judge thought he won. Pulver is a legend that I have much respect for, but the truth is he's fighting because he has to and not because his heart is in it. Pulver has lost his quickness, his confidence, and his chin. I don't think his power is necessarily gone which is why I won't be betting on it.