Service Plays Saturday 10/7/17

Dave Cokin:

371 Arizona +7
395 LSU +7

Double dragon sports - ncaa week #6 - hydra

Double dragon sports

11-unit hydra
miami u. -3

Brad Powers

3 star San Diego St -9

2 star Maryland +32

2 star Utah +6.5

Spartan

3* SEC GAME OF THE Month

Kentucky-10

Mega Locks

Arkansas -2 1/2 (No higher than -3)

TONY FINN

PLAY: (365) San Diego State -10.5 (good to -12.5)
4% rating

(365) San Diego State at (366) UNLV
San Diego State football arrived long before their 5-0 start this season or winning a game, last week, while residing in the top-25. The big victory last Saturday night by the Rebels over San Jose State, a 41-13 victory, assisted in raising the market value of UNLV allowing the line in this event to stay well under the -14-plus I had placed on this contest.
The football history of the Aztecs is rich. The school was under the direction of the man that changed the scheme of the National Football League, when Don "Air" Coryell was walking the sidelines for SDSU. Coryell coached 12 seasons with the San Diego State University Aztecs, using the philosophy of recruiting only junior college players. There, he compiled a record of 104 wins, 19 losses and 2 ties including three undefeated seasons in 1966, 1968 and 1969.
The current head coach, Rocky Long, is on his way to being one of the Aztecs sideline legends if he continues his program as is. Long just does it a bit differently than Coryell did. The Aztecs are, in truth, coming off their best season, and despite some player personnel losses, are head and shoulders more talented and own more depth than any team in the pedestrian MWC.
Since the school began the 2015 campaign at 1-3 they have owned the turf going 21-3 since. The school has won two straight MWC titles and just finished in the AP poll for the first time since 1977. There is an attitude and confidence surrounding the coaching staff and the roster. They expect to win and know how to do so with a scheme that is run in combination with stopping the run.
Note: No. 19 ranked SDSU at UNLV will be televised on ESPN2 at 7:45 p.m. local time here in Las Vegas.
The Rebels are extremely young, impressionable and inconsistent. I had my largest rated play on this team last weekend against a tired and outmanned San Jose State group, a game we laid two possessions with, and covered. To give you an example of how difficult a team to read, even the local sportsbook managers have had, UNLV lost their season opener to Howard, straight up, as 45 point favorites, allowing 43 points on their home turf.
Since that point they have defeated Idaho State and as mentioned, last week's victory over San Jose St. The team is 2-2 overall with a 33 point loss to Ohio State at the "Shoe".
There was as all of you know tragedy in our town this past week, the Sunday night shooting, on the strip. How much will the event effect the team, both teams, for that matter? This can only be speculated but the variable comes into play when examining this game.
This is, of course just football, and while these kinds of events can motivate teams, this life changing occurrence will have been a distraction for the UNLV team more than that of SDSU, and for good reason. It happened in the kids back yard.
It is safe to say that the Rebels will have an issue focusing, in typical fashion, on this game. Coach Tony Sanchez isn't going to emphasize football over what he and his players will be doing in the community this week. This isn't Sanchez and this young group of players will eventually be a solid unit... they are overmatched this weekend, however.
There will be a large amount of reminders of the Sunday night shooting, before and during this game, a moment of silence before the game and signage during the game.
This event hasn't escaped the Aztecs completely. They have three assistant coaches with ties to LV. Bobby Hauck and Jeff Horton were formally on the UNLV staff and Hunkie Cooper played for the Rebels and even coached at Canyon Springs High School. There are also a handful of players from the desert playing for the Aztecs. But focus for Long's kids will be a much more normal than for that of Sanchez' troop.
Not only is this the toughest remaining game on UNLV's slate it comes in the same week when these kids will be asked to do things that are outside of their routine. And not to overuse the event as an excuse to invest in this game but these kids are going to be emotionally fatigued by Saturday night.
This game comes down to talent and experience and San Diego owns the edge in both areas.
San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny leading the Mountain West with 164.6 yards per game and has executed this against a tough schedule. The Aztecs have defeated two Pac-12 teams, Arizona State and Stanford.
UNLV’s Lexington Thomas is averaging 142.8 yards on the ground per game but Penny's 164-plus is a bit more impressive.
Offensively, UNLV is averaging 36.5 PPG and face a San Diego State Aztecs defense that ranks No. 42 in FBS allowing just 21.2 PPG over their handful of wins this year. Strength of schedule for both of these teams, again, strongly favors the Aztecs, despite the fact that the Rebels had Ohio State on their plate a couple of weeks ago.
The UNLV Rebels, under Sanchez, want to be balanced and throw the ball effectively, but this is an offense that averages only 176 yards per game through the air. San Diego State, playing the likes of ASU's Wilkins and Stanford this season, have allowed only 184.4 YPG passing.
Just how good is, or has the potential to be, is this San Diego State Aztecs unit? They are a top-50 team in terms of rating their defensive front seven. They have allowed 132 yards per game as a visitor and are, without question, a defensive minded team, that runs the ball on offense with authority.
The Aztecs are top to bottom better than the young Rebels. They have prepared for the likes of the Arizona State Devils passing attack, a dual quarterback much like the Rebels possess in Rodgers, they have face and defeated Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love and Stanford, and squared off against the difficult option of Air Force and won that affair, as well. And they are coming off a game and a win over NIU, the same team that went into Lincoln, Nebraska, and defeated the Cornhuskers.
The roster and player personnel that Long has on the defensive side of the football are a superb fit for Longs 3-3-5 scheme. And this is a group of players that have been defensively dominate over the last couple of seasons ranking 26th and 24th in Def. S&P+, respectively over the last two seasons.
Defense travels and this is a very good defensive club. They held the Sun Devils to 20 points, the Cardinals to just 17 and Air Force to 24, all victories for the 5-0 Aztecs. SDSU' record-setting Donnel Pumphrey and four of the five offensive linemen are gone from last season but Penny and his front-men have five games under their belt, have defeated all five, including wins at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe and at altitude against the Falcons of the Air Force academy. They are loaded on the defensive side of the football and while there may be a few more fans in the stands at Boyd this weekend the Rebels have no home field advantage. They are not close to where SDSU is as a program nor do they have the following.
What I expected and what UNLV’s offense was able to do a week ago to SJSU and their 125th ranked defense was terrific stuff however this week's task against SDSU is a completely different animal.
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS -10.5

Maddux
20 LSU +6
10 Buff +7
10 Mizzou +13'

SSI WINS
Risked 5 units to win 4.55*Texas A&M +26.5 -110*vs Alabama
Risked 5 units to win 4.55*Utah +5.5 -110*vs Stanford

SSI WINS PARLEY LIFESTYLE PICKS
Florida ML/Miami (FL) ML/Washington State ML-NCAAF (3.5 UNITS)

Northwestern +15/Iowa State +28/Maryland +30/Texas A&M +26.5-NCAAF (1.5 UNITS)

6* Tops
NW +14.5
AUBURN -21 (-120)
TCU -13
KANSAS ST. +4
ALABAMA -26.5
MICH ST. +11

Megalocks
Kansas state/Texas under 50 play to 48

Dave Essler

CFB

Triple (3*) Max-Bet utah +6

2* south carolina +2

Goodfella

3* PAC-12 underdog game of the month

Utah +7


3* Washington st +3

Greg shaker

3* TOTAL Of The MONTH

Michigan / Michigan st over 39


2* Connecticut / Memphis under 73.5