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Monday 3/11/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis
March 11, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)
4-Semi Tough (2-1)-Classy veteran didn’t leave last time and still gobbled up the field on Feb 26 for his 3rd straight. Draws inside of his biggest threat Nandolo N and that could be the winning difference. Does step up but won’t blush at the competition and is sharp enough to keep rolling.
Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)
3-Im A Powerplay A (6-1)-Comes right back in sequence in the 2nd start for the Adamczyk barn off a claim after a 2nd place finish. Should be in line for another cozy trip and is worth a swing at the morning line price.
4-Odds On Pick Six (5-1)-Meets a field without much gate speed and the Di Domenico trainee races well when landing on the point. The Minister of Speed should be out and rolling when the wings fold and play catch me if you can.
6-Pat Stanley N (9/2)-Pat should be a player but will need the right set-up to take a picture. This looks like an opportunity for Matt Kakaley to work a winning stalking trip.
Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)
2-Maximus Red A (5-1)-Used one-nice move to win last week off a sharp drive. Joe B can work a cozy trip again and could roll by to double up.
3-Artist Best (7/2)-Hasn't posted a win in 2024 (7-0-1-2) and may have met a beatable field. Willing to leave the program chalk #5 off the ticket and look for some better value in this leg. George Brennan has options, maybe getting on the point is the plan for tonight.
6-Flow With Joe (9/2)-This will be the 1st start for the Choate barn off a claim and Yannick Gingras gets the assignment. The driver change could help, this is another one-move type that fits but needs the right set-up to win.
Race 12 (10:40 PM EST)
2-Great Somewhere (4-1)-Won last easily, now Joe B takes over for Jordan Stratton. Moves up and so do a few others. Has the gate speed to get good position and get sucked-around.
3-American Dealer N (2-1)-Comes off a win in the slop at M1 and now steps-up but has beaten better than this at Yonkers in the fall. Stratton will steer for Linda Toscano and will probably be bet hard. Deserves the favorite's tag but hasn't raced at YR this year, so will respect, and use others as well.
8-Shine A Light (6-1)-Drops after 4 even efforts against better and there was almost a month between the last 2 starts. Has won 8 of 43 at Yonkers and could grind its way around or leave for a close-up seat. Jason Bartlett has choices and might be aggressive versus this kind.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
4/3,4,6/2,3,6/2,3,8
Total Bet=$27
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Mahoning Valley - Race #6
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #2 Poker Partner |
He might be quickest early, and a bit cleaner break will help him establish position better today. Better stuff from earlier this meet might do the job. |
| #7 Buehler's Day Off |
That was a decent local debut that seems competitive right back if he can hold form, and he should be in line for a great trip while tracking the splits. |
| #5 El Bandido |
He graduated easily against cheaper in that last one, but he might be in a decent enough spot to grind away late for a share while rising to face winners. |
| Race Summary |
Poker Partner might be able to control the tempo today, and I think he's capable of something a bit better than what he has shown in those last two starts. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #7 Capture Mi |
He has some tactical route pace while cutting back to this sharper trip off the claim, and this is in intriguing spot to see if he can turn back and get past a few horses late. |
| #9 Wildcat Express |
Think he's the one to beat with some dangerous pace from the outside, and I really like the race he's coming out of. Price might not be much to write home about. |
| #5 Moester |
He's an honest enough finisher, but he has to turn the tables on Wildcat Express from their last meeting and gives away a big tactical edge to that guy. |
| Race Summary |
Capture Mi races off the claim while turning back to easily the shortest trip on his page, and I'm hoping he'll get towed into an advantageous trip behind the quicker players. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #2 Zashixiarayan |
Nothing wrong with the debut effort when she moved past horses on the turn and never looked back. Not sure who she beat that day, but I'm also not sold that this is the deepest race for the local level. |
| #9 Pride and Attitude |
Tough for me to split the top pair, but I think this one is going to be right there, just potentially at a shorter price. Lots to like about her local debut, and something similar puts her in the frame again. |
| #3 Sweet Mobiltee |
She's one of the logical players, but there are a lot of running lines on her page in which she was overbet, so I wouldn't be enthusiastic about being here at too short a price. In the mix. |
| Race Summary |
Zashixiarayan looked good in the debut run and might still have a little room to come forward, and I think she's playable at something shorter than the 6/1 ML offering. |
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Turf Paradise - Race #3
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #2 WORK N FLIRT (7-2) |
Caught odds-on fave in win, good value play on return to winning level. |
| #6 MARY MARGARET (8-1) |
Ran well off similar rest in the fall, projects ideal trip at a price. |
| #1 CHOCOLATE FRECKLES (3-1) |
Gets class relief but speed will be tested from the rail. |
| Race Summary |
WORK N FLIRT Is hitting her best stride at age 4. She chased and passed the 2-to-5 favorite in victory two starts back and can be excused for a troubled follow-up try as the favorite. She has been slowed at the start several times but she’s worth a win and place wager on the class drop. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #6 BANGIE GO (8-1) |
Dueled and tired off layoff in long sprint, proven form at Turf Paradise. |
| #1 AMARETTO DI AMORE (5-2) |
Missed four times by neck or less in last nine dirt sprints, Espinoza sticks. |
| #5 RUBY RAY (2-1) |
Dead game in victory upon arrival from California, barn is hot. |
| Race Summary |
BANGIE GO is the only two-race winner in the field and shortens up off a useful 6-1/2F try after 11 months away. She was stakes placed twice at Turf Paradise as a 3-year-old. Bet to win and place. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #5 ECONOMICAL (6-1) |
Stacked up favorably with same-day allowance in win, takes catching again. |
| #7 TENTH STREET DAWN (9-2) |
Surged wide in 6-1/2F win, can’t afford another slow start for new barn. |
| #1 ECHO CANYON (4-1) |
Plays to a steady beat in sprints, question of readiness for 4yo debut. |
| Race Summary |
ECONOMICAL moved clear near the half-mile point and kept the rallying favorite well safe to win off the Silva claim. He set faster interior fractions and checked home 3/5 of a second slower than a 6F allowance in the next race on the card. He must carry his speed an extra-half furlong but is too good to pass up for a win and place bet and 5-ALL exacta. |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE
| Turf Paradise - Race 3 |
$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 3-4) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) |
| Claiming $4,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 2:22P |
| FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250. |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Lone Trailer. MARY MARGARET is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MARY MARGARET: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WORK N F LIRT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. POETIC PURSUIT: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. CHOCOLATE FRECKLES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. |
6 |
MARY MARGARET |
8/1 |
3/1 |
2 |
WORK N FLIRT |
7/2 |
6/1 |
5 |
POETIC PURSUIT |
4/1 |
10/1 |
1 |
CHOCOLATE FRECKLES |
3/1 |
10/1 |
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
1 |
CHOCOLATE FRECKLES |
1 |
3/1 |
Front-runner |
66 |
63 |
83.4 |
53.6 |
44.6 |
4 |
SUPER ANNIE |
4 |
2/1 |
Front-runner |
57 |
58 |
56.2 |
47.1 |
37.6 |
2 |
WORK N FLIRT |
2 |
7/2 |
Alternator/Stalker |
66 |
70 |
65.8 |
65.6 |
61.6 |
5 |
POETIC PURSUIT |
5 |
4/1 |
Alternator/Stalker |
75 |
68 |
55.7 |
56.7 |
51.2 |
6 |
MARY MARGARET |
6 |
8/1 |
Trailer |
82 |
73 |
54.4 |
69.6 |
66.6 |
3 |
ROSES FOR SUZZETT |
3 |
8/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
69 |
67 |
47.0 |
43.4 |
33.4 |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE
| Parx Racing - Race 7 |
Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 7-10) / 10 cent Superfecta |
| Maiden Special • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 3:26P |
| (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Lone Stalker. TREBLE CLEF is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TREBLE CLEF: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. |
1 |
TREBLE CLEF |
4/1 |
5/2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
6 |
PAVED IN GOLD |
6 |
6/1 |
Front-runner |
76 |
76 |
72.0 |
72.0 |
64.0 |
4 |
BURN THE EVIDENCE |
4 |
15/1 |
Front-runner |
81 |
70 |
64.8 |
64.8 |
56.8 |
1 |
TREBLE CLEF |
1 |
4/1 |
Alternator/Stalker |
88 |
88 |
34.6 |
84.1 |
81.1 |
5 |
TRICOLOUR |
5 |
2/1 |
Trailer |
82 |
76 |
55.0 |
74.6 |
69.6 |
2 |
BRUSHBACK |
2 |
5/2 |
Trailer |
81 |
73 |
46.5 |
68.3 |
60.8 |
7 |
CRACK THE CODE |
7 |
6/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
67 |
70 |
35.6 |
43.7 |
30.7 |
3 |
CHANGING THE KARMA |
3 |
6/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
75 |
70 |
30.1 |
55.8 |
45.3 |
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:28pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 88
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#10 SENSIBLE JIM (ML=6/1)
#3 FINALIST (ML=8/1)
#7 SOPHOS (ML=8/1)
#4 SENIOR INVESTMENT (ML=9/2)
#8 ARTISTIC REASON (ML=5/1)
SENSIBLE JIM - This jock and trainer's horses have been producing a favorable return on investment. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Lake. Better beware this angle. This gelding is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on February 27th, finishing second. FINALIST - Just check out his last figure, 87. That one looks good in this group. Nunez comes to saddle up after getting to know the gelding in the last affair. The outside post position didn't help this horse's chances last out at Parx Racing. Today's inside post should be just fine. SOPHOS - I like to play this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong race within the last thirty days. When Vasquez and Bouchard combine forces on equines the ROI has been fabulous at +47. This thoroughbred is in great demand coming off two claims in his last two starts. Don't overlook this gelding in your wagering today. Multiple victories over the surface right here at Parx Racing. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle in today's race. SENIOR INVESTMENT - Is ranked highest in earnings per start. A strong effort right here will add to the lifetime total. ARTISTIC REASON - Taking this jockey/conditioner combination is a good decision. I like that last contest on Feb 21st at Parx Racing where he ran first. A repeat of that latest effort on Feb 21st where he recorded a rating of 87 looks strong enough to win in this affair.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MEGA CHARLIE (ML=4/1), #9 HEY PORTER (ML=6/1), #5 DESANTIS (ML=8/1),
MEGA CHARLIE - Trying to beat this entrant this time at the price of 4/1. HEY PORTER - Doubtful that the fig he earned on February 12th will hold up in this clash. DESANTIS - Pedestrian speed rating in the last race at Penn National at 6 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
#10 SENSIBLE JIM is going to be the play if we are getting 6/1 or better |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Box [3,7,10] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
Pass |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
[3,10] with [3,7,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $24 |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race CoursePURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $25900 Class Rating: 90
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS.
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 9 WILDCAT EXPRESS 3/1
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# 5 MOESTER 7/2
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# 4 SENSEI LAWRENCE 5/1
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WILDCAT EXPRESS looks to be a solid contender. Win percentage one of the top in this group. Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the halfway point of the race. Has to be given consideration in this event if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last race. MOESTER - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 86 - of his last contest. Appears to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept. SENSEI LAWRENCE - Has formidable Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this contest. He has respectable class ratings, averaging 95, and has to be considered here.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Will Rogers Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 53
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#2 GRAY PEARL (ML=3/1)
GRAY PEARL - Looking at today's class figure, this campaigner is up against an easier group than in the last race at Fair Grounds. That 25 fig this mare earned in her last event tells me she's a big time player in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 OKIE HOPE (ML=8/5), #6 LIQUOR CAT (ML=9/5), #5 LITTLE MO BROWN (ML=8/1),
OKIE HOPE - Speed ratings of 50/40/19 are started the wrong direction. I usually try to beat these types of chalk off the long layoff. LIQUOR CAT - Difficult to play any thoroughbred in a short distance contest at 9/5 when she hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last couple months. Doubtful that the speed rating she notched on Nov 21st will be enough in this event. LITTLE MO BROWN - Awfully tough to invest in this racer when she hasn't been showing any gumption recently.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
Bet on #2 GRAY PEARL to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Skip |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
Pass |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
Pass |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf ParadisePURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 90
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 NON-WINNER OF FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
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# 4 THIRSTY JOHN 3/1
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# 3 STABILITY 7/2
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# 2 BUGLER 5/1
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THIRSTY JOHN has a very strong shot to take this race. Earning some nice paychecks in dirt sprint events. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 94, has one of the best class advantages in this field. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Bravo ought to have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. STABILITY - Over time, this handler has a formidable return on investment at this distance/surface. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the midpoint of the affair. BUGLER - Has been close up at the wire most every time recently.
