-
Sunday 4/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
-
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/7/24
April 7, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Sunday, April 7, 2024
RACE 1
1-WHAT A DUDE
Degree of confidence: B-
• Second start off a layoff after a much needed prep in turf dash.
• Raised a notch in a sign of confidence, lands the favorable rail.
• Steady, one-paced grinder should be in the fray throughout.
Others to consider: 3-Derecho Dandy; 7-Remote.
RACE 2
4-MIDNIGHT SILENCE
Degree of confidence: C+
• In the money in five of her last six starts; a logical contender.
• Lacks a winning punch but at this restricted level they all do.
• Speed figures have stagnated but are good enough to win.
Others to consider: 3-Bossy Bruin Gal.
RACE 3
7-PROOF SHE ZIPS
Degree of confidence: A-
• Been away for almost a year but has trained like she is fit and ready.
• Employs an effective stalking style; should enjoy the Hillside course.
• Stakes placed up north, facing softer, excellent form over local lawn.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 4
2-ANTONSEN
Degree of confidence: B-
• Burned money when beaten at 6/5 but earned a career top speed figure.
• Was well clear of the rest and not much better will be required today.
• Projects to be on the lead or in a pressing spot; should have no excuses.
Others to consider: 6-The Big Cheeseola.
RACE 5
1-KING OF GOSFORD (GB)
Degree of confidence: B-
• Clever win sprinting over the flat course in recent North American debut.
• Switches to the Hillside Course and faces stakes company; will get tested.
• Irish from was moderate but has improved for Euro specialist Phil D’Amato.
Others to consider: 4-Heart Headed; 6-Nesso’s Lastharrah.
RACE 6
4-DORIE MILLER
Degree of confidence: C+
• Returns to her claim level after being pitched too high in starter races.
• Back on dirt; form suggests she is most comfortable on the main track.
• Lacks early speed, reunited with win rider Pereira; will be rolling late.
Others to consider: 2-Belle Epoque; 5-We’ll Do It Live.
RACE 7
11-BIT’S TIGER MAGIC
Degree of confidence: A-
• Extremely well meant in debut and ran a winning race but was tagged late.
• Filly who beat her returned to win a stakes race yesterday to frank the form.
• Barn has terrific stats with the second time starter angle; picks up Hernandez.
Others to consider: 12-Epione.
RACE 8
4-PATRON D’ORO
Degree of confidence: C
• Easily won his last two with big figs but was claimed by low percentage barn.
• Dropping from $16,000 to $12,500, so the connections are looking to bail.
• Current condition is questionable but will win if he has one good one left.
Others to consider: 1-Lansdowne (GB).
RACE 9
8-ANTIFONA (FR)
Degree of confidence: B
• Clearly most comfortable as a late running turf sprinter, gets ideal conditions.
• Displayed winning success down the Hill two back in the Sweet Life Stakes.
• Should find enough help up front to compliment her deep closing style.
Others to consider: 6-Zona Verde; 7-Laulne (FR).
RACE 10
2-MOTORCADE
Degree of confidence: C
• All-out win in an abbreviated maiden claiming sprint; properly spotted today.
• Must leave sharply from the rail and open up, then try to hang on close home.
• Competitive on numbers but will have to deal with an extra half furlong today.
Others to consider: 6-American Cat; 7-Thales.
RACE 11
10-NITTI (IRE)
Degree of confidence: B-
• Improving form and appears to be acclimating, packs a dangerous late kick.
• Irish bred colt boosted his Beyer figure by 17 points; can step forward again.
• Pace projection looks moderate; needs some help up front to be effective.
Others to consider: 1-Siennois (Ire); 5-Ngannou.
-
Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
April 7, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 13-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 10. The sequence has a $25,000 Guaranteed Pool with a low a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10
4-Daytona Dreamin (12-1)-Draws inside of the main players and Nick Roland has been taking pictures lately. Will swing for a price in a race without a standout.
5-Louis (9/2)-Team Cutting entry is consistent versus this kind and has hit the board in all 8 starts this year with 2 pictures. Looks like a player and this isn't the most talented field.
6-Help Page (4-1)-Winner of 4 straight and 5 of 13 at CalX should be in the hunt. Using because my feeling is this 4-year-old could go off at a higher price than the program odds.
7-Jack Rabbit Slims (2-1)-The morning line choice beat some of these on March 17 and has been off since. Will likely be bet and could win again if leaves and gets the top without much stain. That was the case last time but doesn't have great gate speed.
Race 11
3-Outlawburntpopcorn (4-1)-Trainer Jesse Pacheco will steer his own and should be there at the wire if he can work an efficient trip. Has not won this year (0-10) but drops to soft level and should fit well with this crew.
4-Brooklyn Moonshine (7/2)-Team Plano entry left when dropped to this TM level in last and had no pop in the last 1/2 mile. Was bet down to 2/5, should be a better price tonight and has a chance to make amends.
5-DT Per Attack (2-1)-Drops to a competitive level and is Cutting's choice over #2. This is another who is winless in '24 but did race better in last from post 7. Not loving the short price but is a player with the right trip and is useable.
Race 12
1-Dougsmonkeybusiness (5/2)-Doug got jammed up early on due to a breaker and it may have cost him a better finish, but he wasn't going to win. This is mostly a new crew this week and Cutting should have in play. Needs a ground saving trip to win and cold get one this time.
2-Maui (3-1)-Has the speed to win and raced well last time to DH for 2nd after coming off a sick scratch. Luke Plano steers tonight and he has done well driving the 6-year-old and this might be the time for a picture. Does bump up but draws inside and that should help.
5-Officer Jim (2-1)-Comes out of the same race as #1 and James Kennedy could have the pedal down and get the point. Should be in the mix and hopefully won't be over bet.
Race 13
4-Bettor's Promise (6-1)-Going with a veteran who won his last outing and comes right back. Got a pocket ride at 12-1 to win and pulled away down the lane. The 13-year-old has one nice move and James Kennedy should keep in striking range.
6-Some Playa (5/2)-Dropped to this level in last and wasn't bet and raced like it. But that was on an off-track and its record on a wet surface is 2 wins in 40 tries. Will give another chance and should be in the thick of it at the wire with a big effort.
0.20 Pick 4
4,5,6,7/3,4,5/1,2,5/4,6
Total Bet=$14.40
-
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #7
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #9 Committee Of One |
He held reliable form through a couple Fair Grounds dirt starts, but he's back to his best game going short on the turf today. He graduated in a stakes spot over this course last fall and should get plenty of speed to chase. |
| #4 No Nay Mets |
He's one of the obviously capable players in here racing for Wesley Ward, and he wasn't embarrassed behind a very well-meant Euro winner at the Breeders' Cup. |
| #5 Silent Heart |
Tough to split so many of them, but this guy has never run a bad one and has previous turf sprint form that makes him appealing enough with these. |
| Race Summary |
Think there are some good cases to be made for taking a look at a lot of them in here -- price player #1 Mattingly only got this trip once and finished second to No Nay Mets in the career debut. Committee Of One gets the edge in a fun race. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #6 Youalmosthadme |
She's probably the most likely to control the tempo from the outside in a race without any kind of serious early burn -- and she can attack from the outside if someone else wants to have a go at it. Probably tough at a short price. |
| #1 Denim and Pearls |
Think the pair from the Cox barn will settle this score, and this one might be fast enough to stay in the frame early from the inside. She's coming out of the best race of any of these and fits well in what feels like a modest renewal of this race. |
| #3 Tipsy Tammy |
She's capable of something better than she showed last time out, as she appeared to be a pretty high-ceiling and high-upside filly after that good February score. Wouldn't be a total shock. |
| Race Summary |
There is a shockingly unserious amount of committed pace lined up in this one, and Youalmosthadme draws well to control or prompt the tempo the entire way. She's probably tough. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #8 Cadencia |
She'll need to build on the comeback run, but there is some obvious upside today with a good forward trip waiting for her. Set to stretch out today. |
| #7 Holy Foley |
She typically has a little enthusiasm late in her races, and she only missed by a length here with similar last fall. Along for at least a share. |
| #4 Squash Blossom |
Late runner is a little cheap and has never tried turf, but she she ran pretty well on the rise last time out and might be able to get past some of these late at a price. |
| Race Summary |
Also eligibles could play a big part in this one if any of them draw in, so take a look after changes. Cadencia has some tactical appeal and can get the jump on a handful of serious late threats. |
-
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers
PURCHASE
| Golden Hour Wagers - Race 3 |
Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Double |
| Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 103 • Purse: $65,000 • Post: 6:00P |
| SA - R11 - (RAIL AT 10 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST STARTS PREFERRED). |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * AMERICAN GLORY (GB): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the hi ghest TrackMaster Power Rating. LE MANS: A first time starter with a trainer that has a win percentage with first time starters of at least 25 (minimum 10 starts). Horse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). NITTI (IRE): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BRITISH ISLES: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. |
6 |
AMERICAN GLORY (GB) |
6/1 |
9/2 |
2 |
LE MANS |
8/1 |
5/1 |
10 |
NITTI (IRE) |
4/1 |
7/1 |
4 |
BRITISH ISLES |
10/1 |
9/1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
5 |
NGANNOU |
5 |
5/2 |
Front-runner |
90 |
88 |
90.3 |
84.1 |
73.6 |
11 |
FAST CHAZ |
11 |
15/1 |
Front-runner |
93 |
89 |
80.6 |
72.0 |
65.5 |
7 |
UNCHARTED |
7 |
30/1 |
Alternator/Front-runner |
86 |
82 |
98.0 |
83.1 |
69.6 |
4 |
BRITISH ISLES |
4 |
10/1 |
Trailer |
97 |
96 |
100.4 |
84.1 |
71.6 |
6 |
AMERICAN GLORY (GB) |
6 |
6/1 |
Trailer |
100 |
93 |
86.0 |
89.4 |
84.9 |
10 |
NITTI (IRE) |
10 |
4/1 |
Trailer |
94 |
94 |
79.3 |
85.0 |
78.5 |
8 |
SHOT OF COURAGE |
8 |
30/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
101 |
98 |
104.4 |
81.4 |
73.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE
| Gulfstream Park - Race 1 |
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5) |
| Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 1:10P |
| FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 122 LBS.). |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Dominant Stalker. YLANG YLANG is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SPLURGE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. YLANG YLANG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DOVE IN CHARGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the dist ance/surface. |
7 |
SPLURGE |
1/1 |
4/1 |
5 |
YLANG YLANG |
4/1 |
4/1 |
2 |
DOVE IN CHARGE |
7/2 |
5/1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
5 |
YLANG YLANG |
5 |
4/1 |
Alternator/Stalker |
70 |
71 |
64.4 |
63.6 |
58.6 |
7 |
SPLURGE |
7 |
1/1 |
Alternator/Stalker |
75 |
72 |
63.2 |
61.0 |
57.0 |
2 |
DOVE IN CHARGE |
2 |
7/2 |
Alternator/Stalker |
70 |
64 |
57.2 |
59.8 |
54.3 |
4 |
TRUE MARTINI |
4 |
6/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
63 |
63 |
52.4 |
58.6 |
52.1 |
3 |
AVE FENIX |
3 |
20/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
70 |
67 |
49.0 |
42.8 |
32.3 |
1 |
INDIA PILAGA (ARG) |
1 |
30/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
67 |
61 |
48.8 |
35.0 |
21.5 |
6 |
GENERAL ROBINSON |
6 |
8/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
61 |
57 |
36.0 |
40.9 |
29.9 |
-
Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Fonner Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:39pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,000 Class Rating: 45
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#9 RICHIE'S GAL (ML=5/1)
#1 TEDDYISTRUCKING (ML=8/1)
#4 FLAT OUT HOT (ML=10/1)
RICHIE'S GAL - Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a sharp outing on March 24th. Trainer Ramaekers moves this thoroughbred down in class to face a lower class field. Look for a good race with this class drop. Medina and Ramaekers partnered with one another are a handicapper's friend. This horse ran outside the top 3 at Fonner Park last time out on the mud. She should improve in this event on a fast track. TEDDYISTRUCKING - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Ramaekers. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return. Ran in the last race against a better field at Fonner Park. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit her well. Getting a weight break of 5 lbs from last race at Fonner Park on Mar 24th. Certainly could make the difference right here. Sub-par outing in the last race at Fonner Park was due to the off-going (she ran seventh). Will most certainly do better in this field under normal track conditions. FLAT OUT HOT - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 WOKE JOKE (ML=2/1), #2 SENSE OF HEART (ML=3/1), #7 DRIVING (ML=6/1),
WOKE JOKE - Doesn't seem to be worth 2/1 this time around. Pass on her this time. SENSE OF HEART - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as often as this entrant does. DRIVING - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint contests recently. Doubtful to see her doing it this time around either.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
Bet on #9 RICHIE'S GAL to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
9 with [1,4] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
Box [1,4,9] Total Cost: $6 |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
Pass |
-
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland ParkPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 68
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 5 NOT NOW VICTORIA 4/1
|
# 11 MAFIA 8/1
|
# 1 BLOOMING RESOURCE 6/1
|
NOT NOW VICTORIA has a quite good shot to take this race. She has been racing quite well lately while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures. Ought to come out very strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved swiftly to the lead recently. The Equibase Speed Figure of 71 from her most recent contest looks solid in here. MAFIA - Garrett has a sharp win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Has a solid shot in here if you like back class.
-
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - SA - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 93
OP - R9 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2024 AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 7, 2023. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 7, 2023 ALLOWED 4 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 7, 2023 ALLOWED 8 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 6 SHACKS WAY 4/1
|
# 7 T BONES TRICK 15/1
|
# 11 CITY LEGEND 20/1
|
I back SHACKS WAY here. Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying decent figs lately and an average speed figure of 89 under similar conditions. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 99, has one of the top class advantages in this group of horses. I expect a respectable performance from this horse whose conditioner has one of the best ROI percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. T BONES TRICK - He has to be given a shot given the competitive speed figures. Will almost certainly come out very solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the lead recently.
-
Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Oaklawn Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 68
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#8 PERCEPTIVE (ML=5/2)
#6 DOMINA (ML=6/1)
PERCEPTIVE - You have to be keen on that last race figure, 60, which is the best most recent race figure of this group. Asmussen moves this filly to the dirt today. Look for an improvement from the most recent grass race. DOMINA - This filly should give a strong account of herself in today's race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 KAVA (ML=2/1), #3 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN (ML=3/1),
KAVA - Unlikely that the speed figure she notched on March 28th will be good enough in this event. GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN - You always figure that this horse has a shot to be victorious, but she comes up short regularly.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
Go with #8 PERCEPTIVE on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Box [6,8] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
None |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
None |
