9-5-08

Lang:

FRIDAY

15 Dime - Athletics
5 dime - Ball St
5 dime - Over Navy/Ball St

dr Bob

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BALL ST. (-7.0) vs. Navy

04:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Sep-05

Both of these teams ought to be able to move the ball at will in this game, as Navy’s ground attack should work very well against a sub-par Ball State run defense while Cardinals’ star quarterback Nate Davis slices up a horrible Navy pass defense. Navy was among the worst teams in the nation against the pass last season (8.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense) and, while improved, they will be still be horrible against aerial attacks. Navy gave up 314 passing yards at 6.3 yppp last week against a Towson State team that would average only about 4.5 yppp on the road against an average team. Nate Davis was good the last two seasons (0.7 yppp better than average) and he should be considerably better than that in his 3rd year at the helm with all of his receivers returning from last season. Davis completed 21 of 24 passes for 290 yards last week against Northeastern, a team that is actually better than Navy in pass defense. Navy RB Shun White exploded for 348 rushing yards on just 19 carries in last week’s 41-13 win over Towson and White has now run for 1567 yards at an amazing 10.6 ypr in his career. The Midshipmen appear to be even better than last season running the ball and Ball State gave up 528 rushing yards at 8.3 yards per rushing play to Navy last season and won’t be able to stop them this year either. My ratings favor Ball State by 8 points in this game, but underdogs that can run at will are usually pretty good bets and Navy applies to an 85-34 ATS game 2 situation and a 93-34-1 ATS revenge angle. I like Navy plus the points in this one. I also favor the Over in this game, as I project 69 points and the over/under opened at 59 points. BALL ST. (-7.0) 36 Navy 33

ppp-joe G

3* Navy

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (now 48-27 since May 26!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. No one, especially the Mets themselves and their fans, will ever forget the team blowing a seven-game lead with 17 games remaining in '07. The Phillies eventually edged the Mets by one game last year, in winning the NL East. The Mets will host the Phillies this weekend at Shea in a three-games series, which be the teams final meetings of the season. The Phillies are three games behind the Mets as of Friday and both clubs have 22 games remaining. The Phillies are one of a handful of MLB teams with a winning road record (37-35) but Philadelphia enters this series just 5-9 over its last 14 away games. Meanwhile, the Mets were just 62-56 after a losing an August 11 make-up with the Pirates, but have caught fire by going 17-5 over their last 22 games. The Mets should be confident entering this series, as unlike last year when the Phillies took 12 of 18 games from them (including all SEVEN games played between August 26 and September 16), the Mets have won 10 of 15 meetings this year with the Phillies. Starting for Philadelphia is Brett Myers and for New York, it's Mike Pelfrey. Both are pitching well and have compelling storylines. Myers won 50 games as a starting pitcher for the Phils from 2003-06 but last year was converted into the team's closer, with mixed results (3-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 21 saves). Philly moved him back into their starting rotation at the start of this year and Myers flopped badly. He opened the season 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA over his first 17 starts and was demoted to the minors. However, after a relatively brief stay, he has returned to the majors and pitched extremely well. He's 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA in the eight starts since his return to the bigs, with the Phillies going 6-2. That's great but Pelfrey has been just as good and for a longer stretch. Pelfrey showed few signs of being "ready for primetime" last year, going 3-8 with a 5.57 ERA in 13 starts (4-9). He struggled at the start of '08 as well but he'll enter this game as New York's leader in wins with a 13-8 mark and a 3.66 ERA. The team is 16-11 (plus-$462) in his starts on the year but note that since May 31, they are 14-4 in his starts, as Pelfrey has allowed two ERs or less 12 times! The Mets are opening an eight-game homestand with this series and will get Washington for two games next, plus Atlanta for three after that. Note that the Nats are 54-87 overall (23-47 on the road) and the Braves are 61-80 overall (24-48 on the road). What a great chance for the Mets to put some distance between them and the Phillies. The distancing starts tonight! Las Vegas Insider on the NY Mets.

Good Luck....Larry

ROOT

Mill LAD
CHAIR TEX

BIG AL

At 10:10pm our selection is on the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners 'under' the total. These two teams have played their last nine games against each other in the Bronx, and the Yankees have won eight of those nine games. In this, the first and only series of the season between the Yankees and Mariners to be played in Seattle, the Mariners are hoping to begin a streak of their own and perhaps play the role of spoiler as the regular season comes to a close. This is a very interesting pitching matchup with Yankee veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte going up against 24-year-old righthander Brandon Morrow (1.47 ERA this year out of the bullpen). What makes this a big deal for Seattle is the fact that Morrow is one of their top pitching talents, who until now, was too valuable in relief to be given a shot at the rotation. He has been in a similar situation to New York's own Joba Chamberlain until the latter was finally given a chance to start for the Yanks earlier this season. If Seattle is to contend next season and beyond, they will need a big-time starter to step up and join the likes of King Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard so this start for Morrow makes perfect sense right now. Seattle will certainly keep a close eye on Morrow's pitch count, but if he is successful in an efficient manner against the Pinstripes then don't be surprised to see him go seven innings tonight. If he can do that, then he'll turn it over to what has been one of the few bright spots on this team this season (i.e., the bullpen) with a shot to win his first Major League start. The under is 12-3 in Pettitte's last 15 road starts. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

EXPERT: Ben Burns
TITLE: *75% NCAA RUN CONTINUES* Friday ANNIHILATOR
REASON FOR PICK: I'm laying the points with Ball State. The Cardinals went on the road and upset a better Navy team last season. This season, with a ton of returning starters, Ball State figures to be much improved. Additionally, the Cardinals are playing at home this time and catching Navy playing its first regular season 1-A game without former coach Paul Johnson. The Cardinals have been great under Coach Brady Hoke in September in recent seasons, going 6-1 ATS their last seven lined September games. On the other hand, Navy hasn't fared particularly well at this time of the year, going 3-5 ATS its last eight lined September games, including 1-3 ATS last year. Last year's meeting resulted in a shootout as the Cardinals won by a score of 34-31. With 11 offensive starters back and coming off a 48-point effort in Week 1, the Cardinals are going to put up big numbers once again. That's particularly true when facing a Navy defense which gave up 330 passing yards to lowly 1-A Towson last week. The question will be whether or not the Midshipmen can keep up. I feel that answer will be no. Navy will get its yards on the ground. However, they won't come nearly as easily as they did last week, particularly when considering that the Ball State rush defense allowed just 96 rushing yards on 32 carries in its opening game. It should also be mentioned that the Navy QB is expected to be without QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who is currently listed as doubtful. They won with Jarod Bryant last week but this is obviously a very big step up in class. While they won last year's meeting as an underdog, the Cardinals are also 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were favored by eight points or less. Look for them to improve on those stats with a double-digit victory. *Annihilator