9-6-08

Larry Ness' 20* Non-Conference GOY (1st GOY play TY / 7-1 start to CFB '08)-Sat


My 20* play is on Penn State at 3:30 ET. Oregon State opened the '08 season with a conference road game at Stanford, losing 36-28. The Beavers had a chance late but fumbled the ball away at the Stanford goal line, with just under 50 seconds remaining. QB Lyle Moevao impressed with 404 yards passing and three TDs but he also threw two INTs (one returned for a TD) and also botched a swing pass which resulted in a Cardinal safety. WR Sammie Stroughter missed of most of LY with an injury but looked great in his first game of '08, with 12 catches for 157 yards and two TDs. Fellow WR Shane Morales, who had just 16 catches in '07, almost matched that total in his first game of '08, with 13 receptions for 151 yards. However, OSU's running game, which last year featured Yvenson Bernard (1,214 yards / 13 TDs), gained just 86 yards on 28 carries. Things hardly get easier for OSU this week, as the Beavers must travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. By the way, it should be noted that Oregon State is the only BCS school which is being asked to open the '08 season with back-to-back road games. Penn State opened its '08 season with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina. While it's impossible to make too much of that win, it should be noted that the 66 points were the most scored in an opener by a Penn State team since 1926! I was NEVER a fan of QB Anthony Morelli and senior QB Daryll Clark was a solid 11-of-14 with 146 yards (one TD / no INTs) in the team's opener. He's made even better by a trio of WRs in Butler, Norwood and Williams, who are now all seniors. PSU rushed 43 times for 334 yards in the easy win, as four players ran for 60 yards or more, led by redshirt freshman Stephon Green's 89 yards with two TDs. The Penn State defense owns a veteran DL and 2ndy and should have little trouble with the OSU running game (sans Bernard) and will be fore-warned about Moevao, after his 404-yard effort vs Stanford. OSU's defense allowed Stanford only 301 total yards but 210 of those came on the ground. I guess that should come as no surprise, as while OSU led the nation in rushing yards allowed in '07 (71 YPG / 2.1 YPC), the team returns just THREE defensive starters in '08, including NONE of the team's front-seven! Let's note that OSU traveled to Cincy last year and lost 34-3, traveled to Boise St in '06 and lost 42-14 and visited Louisville in '05, losing 63-27. That's three non-conference road losses by an average margin of 31.7 PPG. That margin sounds about right to me here, as well. Non-Conference GOY 20* Penn State.

Good Luck...Larry

Dr. Bob


NCAA

2* Florida
2* Minnesota

Brandon Lang
SATURDAY

20 Dime East Carolina

5 Dime Syracuse



FREE - Mississippi

Scott Spreitzer

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Mismatch GOM Kansas

Big AL

At 12 Noon (time change), on Saturday, on ESPN-U television, our selection is on the Temple Owls plus the points over Connecticut.

At 5 pm (televised on the Versus Network), our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos over Texas A&M.

At 7:30 pm, on ESPN-U television, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers plus the points over Bowling Green, as we will fade the Falcons off last week's upset win, and look for Minnesota to avenge its 32-31 home loss to BGSU last season.

At 3:55pm our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total

Burns

ROYALS

Game: Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals Game Time: 9/6/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Kansas City Royals Reason: I'm playing on KC. The Indians grabbed yesterday's series opener but the Royals should be able to square things up today. Gil Meche gets the call and he's been solid all season. He pitched very well last time out (2 runs in 7 innings) but didn't get any run support. Still, he's got a strong 3.54 ERA his last three outings and has averaged nearly eight innings per start. He should be some run support here. For starters, Zach Jackson has a 6.17 ERA as a starter. Additionally, he's a southpaw and KC has actually hit very well vs. left-handers. In fact, the Royals enter today's game batting a respectable .274 vs. southpaws while averaging five runs per game. That's pretty good when compared to their 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handers. Not surprisingly, the Royals have been very profitable against left-handers for the year. In fact, they're 28-20 (+15.1) against them on the season. These pitchers faced other at Cleveland a couple of weeks ago. Meche outpitched Jackson but the Indians rallied to win after he left the game. Look for Meche to outpitch Jackson again today, only this time look for his team to hang on to the lead, snapping the Indians' extended road winning streak. *AL GOW

Waynre root
Mill GOY-New Mexico
chairman -Utah
Bill-Nevada
No-limit-Wash u
inside circle-C mich
Money maker -E carolina

P P P

3% GT +7
3% ND -21.5
3% Miss +7.5
3% Pitt -13
4% Wisc -20.5
4% E Carolina +8

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CFB (7-2 or 77.8 percent ATS start in CFB '08!)-Saturday
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Syracuse at 3:30 ET. It's seems like decades ago that Syracuse was a major player in the East. The 'Cuse did win 10 games in 2001 (including a 26-3 Insight Bowl win over a Kansa State team that entered 11-1) but the Orange haven't had a winning season since. Greg Robinson enters his fourth year at the school and after last Saturday's 30-10 loss at Northwestern, his record stands at just 7-29. Akron, which didn't join Div I-A until 1987, will be meeting Syracuse for the first time ever. The Zips are coming off a 4-8 campaign in '07 and return just 13 starters, tied for the fewest among MAC schools. For the fourth time in the last five seasons, the Zips opened a new season with a loss, as Akron was easily handled at Wisconsin, 38-17. Akron has not had much success against non-conference foes lately, going 4-12 since 2004 and is just 2-11 all-time vs current Big East teams, with both of those wins coming over Cincinnati (in '89 and '92), before the Bearcats joined the Big East. Akron snuck under LW's huge pointspread, scoring late in the game after a Wisconsin fumble. Akron's rush D was pummeled by the Badgers, who gained 404 yards on 63 carries, as PJ Hill gained 210 yards all by himself. Syracuse may be able to run on the Zips as well, as RBs Brinkley and Carter are both healthy this year. Brinkley had 49 yards on nine carries and Carter had 45 yards on six carries last week vs Northwestern. I expect them to perform much better on Saturday. QB Andrew Robinson was not sharp vs the Wildcats, completing just 14-of-28 passes for only 103 yards. He was sacked twice and threw an INT, as the Orange collected just 11 first downs, while converting on only 3-of-14 third down attempts. However, the Akron defense should be a welcome relief for them, as will Akron's mediocre offense be for Syracuse's questionable defense. The Orange saw Northwestern QB Bacher throw for 215 yards and three TDs last week, while a now-healthy Tyrell Sutton showed his old form, running for 144 yards on just 21 carries. However, the Syracuse D will be facing an Akron offense which has averaged only 19.7 and 21.2 PPG over the last two seasons. Akron's offense was overmatched in its opener against Wisconsin, as the team finished with just 297 total yards. The running game posted just 70 yards on 22 attempts (3.2 YPC) but a bright spot was the play of QB Chris Jacquemain. He completed 22-of-36 passes for 227 yards and two scores but Akron only converted 4-of-11 third down attempts. Syracuse hasn't had a winning season since 2001 and while the Orange are only 14-17 SU the last five years in the Carrier Dome, they are an impressive 11-4 ATS as a home favorite. Syracuse and its head coach Greg Robinson sure need a win here and the Zips seem like the perfect foil. Akron is now 2-13 its last 15 road games since the beginning of the '06 season, winning only at NC State in '06 (Wolfpack went 3-9) and Western Mich in '07 and with such a small spread, almost need to win SU to cover. I not only don't think the Zips can win, I don't think they'll stay with double-digits! At this price, Syracuse is a bargain. Oddsmaker's Error on Syracuse.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (7-2 CFB start / won LW's Wipeout Winner 56-10!)-Sat
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Pittsburgh at 6:00 ET. The last image of Dave Wannstedt from the '07 CFB season was him hobbling around the sidelines on crutches, as his Pitt Panthers were taking on their most-hated rival, West Virginia. Pit upset the Mountaineers at West Va in that regular season finale, 13-9. The loss kept the Mountaineers from their first-ever BCS title game appearance. The win by Pitt gave the Panthers a 5-7 finish to the '07 season and Wannstedt entered this year with a three-year mark of just 16-19 at Pitt but with a No. 25 preseason ranking from the AP. Pitt's season-opener came last Saturday (at home) against Bowling Green, a team which had lost last year's GMAC Bowl, 63-7 to Tulsa. So what happened at Heinz Field. The Panthers jumped out to a 14-0 lead (outgained BG 137-6 in the first quarter) but lost, 27-17. BG put "eight guys in the box" and LeSean McCoy, who ran for 1,328 yards last year in the best freshman season by a Pitt runner since Tony Dorsett in 1973, was held to 71 yards on 23 carries. He didn't have a run longer than 12 yards. Meanwhile, QB Bill Stull was not able to compensate. Stull began last year as Pitt's starting QB but was lost in the season's first game and never returned. He threw for 264 yards vs BG (one TD / one INT) but that came on 51 attempts (29 completions). As for Buffalo, the Bulls opened Turner Gill's third year at the school by routing UTEP, 42-17. The 42 points represent the most scored in a season-opener at the Division I-A level for the Bulls, who return 18 starters from last year's 5-7 team. QB Drew Willy threw just 16 times but he completed 10 of them for 221 yards and four TDs (a school Div I-A record). He also extended his streak to 251 pass attempts since his last INT (longest active streak in the nation). What's more, the Bulls ran for 263 yards. Buffalo averaged only 130.0 rushing YPG in 2007 but both James Starks (1,103-yards LY) and Brandon Thermilus topped 100 yards. Starks had 179 (31 ATTs) and Thermilus had 102 (16 ATTs / 2 TDs). The Buffalo "D" was pretty good too, holding an explosive UTEP team (33.6 PPG and 423 YPG in '07) to 17 points and 266 yards. The Panthers were able to move the ball in their opener against BGSU (393 yards) but their four turnovers proved costly. Defensively, the Panthers only allowed just 254 yards, so expect a better result this Saturday. Wannstedt's team has next week off, so getting a crack at another MAC team here at home, could be "just what the doctor ordered." Gill's been recruiting better athletes since coming to Buffalo but it's only been three years. Under Gill, Buffalo lost all seven games on the road in '06 and last year went just 2-5, winning only at Temple (4-8) and Kent State (3-9). I like Gill (I played Buffalo last week) but this is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for the Bulls. Wannstedt and his team NEEDS this win (and a convincing one at that!) and let's remember that prior to last week's home game to Bowling Green, Pitt was 25-2 against the MAC, 8-0 in season openers and 24-0 at home. Weekend Wipeout Winner on Pittsburgh.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness 15* TV Game of the Week-MLB (185-100 two-year run!)-Day
My 15* play is on the Min Twins at 3:55 ET. The Twins returned from their 14-game road trip and celebrated with a 10-2 win over the Tigers on Friday. Minnesota had gone 5-9 on the trip, after losing all three games earlier this week vs the Blue Jays but continued their domination over the Tigers here in the Metrodome this season. The Twins have now won SIX of seven games over the Tigers here at home, outscoring them 49-19. Actually, the Twins have played well against all opponents in the Metrodome this year, going 47-23 and outscoring opponents by an average of 5.40-to-3.74 RPG. While the Twins remain in a tight race with the White Sox in the AL Central (trail by 1 1/2 games), the Tigers are only 67-74 and 12 1/2 games behind the White Sox. It's been quite some time now since anyone's said, "the Tigers are still alive." Detroit's moves over the winter made them the AL Central favorite entering this year (as well as one of the AL's overall favorites) but the Tigers started 0-7 and never really recovered. Justin Verlander (10-15, 4.74 ERA) gets the start today and in '06 and '07, he was one of the AL's biggest winners, going 35-15 (3.64 ERA) with the Tigers going 41-21 in his starts (plus-$1,652). However, he started horribly this year (team lost 12 of his 15 starts!), then went on a terrific six-start streak from 6/22-7/20 (was 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA as the team was 6-0), but has now regressed to his early season form, going 2-6 with a 7.29 ERA in his last eight starts. On the year, Detroit is 11-18 (minus-$1,380) in his starts, making him MLB's biggest "money-burner" (ranks LAST against the moneyline among almost 300 pitchers who have made a start in '08!). As for the Twins, Scott Baker (8-4, 3.66 ERA) has pitched very well this year. He was placed on the DL on May 7 with a strained right groin (team had won five of his six starts to open '08) and didn't return to the rotation until June 5. The team dropped his first three starts back but Baker pitched well (3.00 ERA). He's continued his solid pitching, allowing three ERs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts, as the Twins have gone 9-5. The Twins are 14-9 (plus-$574) in his in all of his starts this year, including 7-2 in his home starts, where he's posted a solid 3.23 ERA. Both pitchers are right-handers and while the Tigers are just 18-34 vs right-handers on the road (3-13, averaging just 3.0 RPG in day games), the Twins are a solid 30-18 vs righties at home. I realize that this game is inside but 3-13 and averaging 3.0 RPG is downright 'UGLY!' TV Game of the Week 15* Min Twins.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (PERFECT 2-0 start in FB '08!)-Sat
My Las Vegas Insider is on Iowa State at 7:00 ET. Gene Chizik's first game as Iowa State's head coach came a year ago vs Kent State, a game the Cyclones lost at home, 23-14. Leading 14-9 in the early third quarter, the Cyclones allowed the Flashes to drive for the go-ahead score and on the very next series, got intercepted by Kent State. It was returned 50 yards (all the way to the ISU eight-yard line) and KSU shortly made it 23-14. Neither team scored the rest of the way. It was not a good beginning for Chizik, who had made a HUGE name for himself as Auburn's DC in '04 (Tigers went 13-0 that year) and as DC of the Longhorns in '05 (won national title) and '06. ISU did upset Iowa 15-13 (as 17-point dogs) in last year's third game but took a 1-8 mark into the final three games of last season. However, the Cyclones then won back-to-back home games, beating Kansas St 31-20 (plus-15 1/2) and Colorado 31-28 (at plus-3 1/2), before getting crushed at Kansas (45-7). With the team's 44-17 win over South Dakota State on August 28, the Cyclones have now won three straight home games. Saturday, Chizik and his Cyclones get a "revenge game" with Kent State and once again the game is being played in Ames. KSU won last year's game in Ames but then lost FIVE of its remaining six road games, allowing an average of 34.5 PPG. The Zips opened the '08 season getting shutout in Cleveland by Boston College last Saturday, 21-0. QB Edelman completed 10-of-14 passes but for only 123 yards and he threw two INTs. RB Jarvis, who ran for 1,669 yards (6.0 YPC) in '07, had 51 yards on 11 carries. KSU was not up to the challenge of facing a defense the likes of BC and while it should fare better here vs ISU, this is still a Big 12 team vs a MAC team. ISU only averaged around 125 YPG rushing last year (3.1 per) but gained 229 yards on 42 carries last week. The team's running game could get a boost this week if JJ Bass (462 YR) is permitted to return to the field after a suspension. Austen Arnaud and Phillip Bates both saw time at QB last week with Arnaud going 8-of-11 for 98 yards (one TD), and Bates completing 5-of-8 passes for 61 yards (one TD). Overall, Iowa State finished with 20 FDs and converted 6-of-7 red zone chances. The ISU defense (31.8 PPG and 390 TYPG allowed last year) was terrific, forcing SIX turnovers and returning FIVE interceptions for a school-record 202 yards. KSU has only one winning season the last 20 years (went 6-5 in 2001) and its win in Ames last year was the school's first win over a BCS school since it beat Kansas back in 1987. ISU does have Iowa up next but KSU's win last year is one the Cyclones and Chizik will remember well. Las Vegas Insider on Iowa State. Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (48-28 since May 26!)

My Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Cards at 7:15 ET. Both the Marlins and Cards have been pretty mediocre since the break and both look as if their playoff hopes are all but over. The Marlins beat the Cards 4-1 (11 innings) last night, in the opening game of this three-game series. Once again, Ricky Nolasco came through for Florida (7 IP / 6 hits / 1 ER), as the Marlins won for the 16th time in his last 21 starts. However, the Marlins can't expect that kind of a effort out of their starter tonight, Scott Olsen. Olsen entered the '08 season off a terrible '07 season (10-15, 5.81 ERA), which included off-the-field issues as well. Most regular followers of MLB were surprised to see Olsen open strongly in '08, as Florida won EIGHT of his first nine starts. However, Olsen was not able to keep up his fine pitching and his overall record entering this game is 6-9, 4.35 ERA (team is 12-16 and minus-$362 in his 28 starts). He gone winless since July 19, a span of EIGHT straight starts, going 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA (team is 0-8!). There's little reason to expect his current slide to end tonight. Todd Wellemeyer has been another in a growing list of relievers turned starters for St Louis. The Cards 'rescued' him last year from KC and Wellemeyer finished 3-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 20 appearances for St Louis the remainder of the year. However, 11 of his 20 appearances were starts, with the Cards going 9-2 in those games. He's been used strictly as a starter in '08 and enters with an 11-6 record and a 3.76 ERA. He had all sorts of trouble right before the break (team lost his final five starts of the season's first half) but in nine starts since the break, he's allowed three ERs or less in nine starts. A "typical" effort from Wellemeyer will give the Cards an easy win over the Marlins tonight, as Olsen's woes continue. Las Vegas Insider on the StL Cards.

Good Luck...Larry