9-14-08

Ben Burns | NFL Total
triple-dime bet200 DET / 199 GBP Under 45.5 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on the Packers and Lions to finish UNDER the number. I really like Week 2 in the NFL and have typically done well with my Week 2 picks by finding games (sides or totals) where the betting public has over-reacted to the results from the opening week. One of my winners from Week 2 last season was the 'under' in the Lions/Vikings game. The Lions had been involved in a shootout vs. a non-conference opponent in Week 1, knocking off the Raiders by a score of 36-21. Although it was only one game, public perception was that they had a very potent offense. Despite the fact that they were playing a divisional game against a Vikings team which allowed a mere three points the previous week, aided by the previous week's offensive explosion, the over/under line was a generous 43. I felt that was too high. Sure enough, the teams combined for just 34 points in regulation and 37 overall.

This season has some similarities as we've got the Lions coming off a high-scoring opener. While the Falcons are from the same conference, they're still from outside the division. Once again, the Lions face a division rival in their second game. Once again, I feel that the o/u line is much too high, based on the Week 1 results. Yes, the Lions gave up a couple of big plays and were torched on the ground by the Falcons. I really think that this defense will prove better than they showed in that game though and that we shouldn't over-react to one game. Throughout the entire offseason, the Lions' mantra has been to attack on defense and control the clock on offense. Trust me, they were disgusted with the Week 1 effort on defense and will be highly motivated to atone with a better showing this week. Note that during the preseason the Lions held ALL four of their opponents to 10 points or less, allowing a total of just 32 in four games. None of those four games produced more than 37 combined points and they averaged just 28.

As for the Packers, they played very well defensively in Week 1, holding the Vikings to just three first half points, six through the first three quarters and 19 overall. That game finished over the number with 43 points. However, that was somewhat of a bad beat for under bettors (myself included) as the score was 17-6 entering the fourth quarter before the Packers scored on a punt return. This gave them a bigger lead and caused them to relax on defense. Regardless, even the 43 points scored in that game wouldn't be enough to go over this afternoon's higher total. Note that the Packers' gameplan should include a heavy dose of the run this week, particularly after seeing the Falcons' success on the ground last week. However, it should also be noted that the ground attack may not be at full strength, as Ryan Grant is banged up. Regardless, as you know, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. As you probably also know, pass-happy coordinator Mike Martz is gone from Detroit and gunslinging QB Brett Favre is gone from Green Bay. Look for the 'new era' of this rivalry to begin with a relatively low-scoring contest. *NFC TOY

Dr Bob
Paid and confirmed

NFL Best Bet Sides

3 Star Selection
Oakland (+3.5) 17 KANSAS CITY 13
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Oakland looked horrible in their 14-41 home loss to Denver on Monday Night Football, but that nationally televised loss has served to put the Raiders in a good situation this week. The Raiders apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and they also apply to a similar 26-2 ATS week 2 angle. My ratings would have favored the Chiefs by just 1 point prior to last week’s results, so the line has certainly been adjusted for how poorly the Raiders played. Oakland’s offense performed pretty well (5.4 yards per play), but their defense was horrible in allowing the Broncos to rack up 7.9 yards per play. Oakland has good personnel on defense and I expect that unit to bounce back with a good effort against a sub-par Kansas City attack. I actually upgraded the Chiefs offense with veteran Damon Huard in place of injured starting quarterback Brodie Croyle, who averaged only 4.7 yards per pass play last season. Huard has averaged 5.6 yppp during his career and 5.55 yppl since last season, so he’s an upgrade. Kansas City’s defense caught a break and spent most of last Sunday defending Matt Cassell instead of Tom Brady, who was injured in the first half. The Chiefs are probably going to be below average defensively this season without pass rushing star Jared Allen, but they ought to keep the Raiders in check. My ratings favor Kansas City by 3 points after adjusting for last week’s games and installing Huard at quarterback for Kansas City, so the line is fair. The situation is strongly in favor of the Raiders and I’ll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +3 points (-120 odds or better).

I’ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 35 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation.

3 Star Selection
San Francisco (+7) 21 SEATTLE 19
14-Sep-08 01:05 PM Pacific Time
San Francisco is one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season, but losing 13-23 at home to Arizona has hidden that fact. The 49ers were the worst offensive team in recent memory last season, but bringing in offensive coordinator Mike Martz has revitalized the 49ers’ attack and quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan looks like he’s more than capable of putting up adequate passing numbers to go with the good running of Frank Gore. O’Sullivan averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt in the pre-season and followed that up with 20 passes for 195 yards last week (9.75 ypa). I’m not ready to call for O’Sullivan to make the Pro Bowl, but he’s averaged 8.3 ypa on 165 passes in Martz’ system in the pre-season and regular season combined, including 7.5 ypa on 46 regular season passes. If I include sacks, which I always do, then O’Sullivan has an overall average of 7.4 yards per pass play in Martz’ system (including preseason), including 5.9 yppp on 53 regular season pass plays (7.6 yppp last week). That’s just a bit below the league average of 6.1 yppp and I have O’Sullivan rated as an average quarterback on a yppp basis – but with a high interception rate. With Gore being a better than average runner the 49ers can move the ball at a better than average clip, which was proven by the 6.8 yppl that the Niners averaged last week. San Francisco has a pretty solid defense too and that unit held the Cardinals’ better than average attack to just 4.3 yppl. San Francisco should have beaten the Cardinals by about 10 points, but they lost by 10 thanks to 4 lost fumbles and zero turnovers for the Cardinals. Fumbles are mostly random in the NFL, so it’s unlikely that they’ll repeat those mistakes this week. If the turnovers are close to even then San Francisco should have no problem competing with an overrated Seahawks team was out-played 3.8 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Bills in their 10-34 loss. Seattle does have a better than average defense (although they didn’t show it last week), but the Seahawks are hurting on offense with no capable receivers on the roster for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to throw to. All of last year’s top 4 wide receivers are gone, as D.J. Hackett left as a free agent, Bobby Engram is still out with a bad shoulder, Deion Branch is still recovering from knee surgery and Nate Burleson, who led the team with 5 catches last week, is out for the season after injuring his knee last week. Seattle isn’t a good enough running team to beat the 49ers, who are pretty good defending the run, and my ratings favor Seattle by just 3 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value, the 49ers apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and Seattle applies to a negative 28-87 ATS situation that is based on last week’s loss. I’ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars from +5 ½ to +3 ½ points.



NFL Strong Opinions

Green Bay (-3.0) 26 DETROIT 19
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I rated Detroit as the 5th worst team in the league heading into the season and they just proved that they are not as good as one of the teams I had rated below them. Losing 21-34 to Atlanta is a sign of trouble, as the defense allowed 322 yards on 38 rushing plays while allowing rookie quarterback Matt Ryan to average a tidy 11.1 yards on his 14 pass plays. Detroit’s offense played about as expected with 5.5 yards per play against a below average Falcons’ defense, but a mediocre offense is not going to cut it against a good Packers team that plays solid defense and looks sharp on offense. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers showed why the Packers didn’t want Brett Favre to come back, as Rodgers completed 18 of 22 passes for 8.1 yards per pass play and no interceptions. Green Bay also ran the ball for 5.6 yards per rush against the best run defense in the league in Monday’s 24-19 win over the Vikings and RB Ryan Grant is probably doing cartwheels in the film room while looking at Detroit’s run defense. My ratings favor Green Bay by 9 points in this game, but I’ll resist making the Packers a Best Bet since the Lions apply to a 28-3-1 ATS bounce-back situation. Green Bay does apply to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll consider Green Bay a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.

Buffalo (+5.5) 20 JACKSONVILLE 21
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Bills are a young team on the rise and they showed that last week with an outstanding all-around performance in a 34-10 win over the Seahawks. Buffalo out-gained Seattle 5.4 yards per play to 3.8 yppl and had their usual great effort on special teams (punt return TD and fake FG TD). I still rate the Bills at below average offensively, but their young defense became a better than average unit starting week 5 of last season when changes were made in the secondary. That defense is even better this season and rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. Jacksonville’s offense was malfunctioning last week against a good Titans’ defense (just 3.3 yppl) and they will probably post just mediocre numbers against the Bills. The Jaguars are a solid defensive team, but they are still susceptible to the pass (Kerry Collins killed them last week after Vince Young left the game with an injury) and Bills’ quarterback Trent Edwards looks pretty comfortable throwing the football (he averaged 6.9 yards per pass play last week with no interceptions). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 5 points, so the line is about right, but Buffalo applies to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator while the Jaguars apply to a negative 33-76-3 ATS early season situation. I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take the Bills in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

Philadelphia (+7) 21 DALLAS 23
15-Sep-08 05:30 PM Pacific Time
Philadelphia appears to be an underrated team to start this season. My ratings favored the Eagles by 14 ½ points last week against the Rams (a 38-3 win) and my ratings favor Dallas by only 3 points in this game, as I have these teams rated the same. The Eagles have a great running back in Brian Westbrook and Donavan McNabb looks completely healthy after spending last season recovering from his knee surgery. The addition of rookie DeSean Jackson has been a bigger factor than most anticipated, as Jackson led the Eagles in receiving yards last week (6 catches for 106 yards) while also setting up a touchdown with a 60 yard punt return. Philly’s defense was pretty good last season (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they’ve added top cornerback Asante Samuel to make the pass defense even better. The Rams were limited to 166 total yards at 3.7 yppl last week and the Eagles are capable of slowing down an explosive Dallas attack. I actually rate Dallas as being slightly better than the Eagles offensively and 0.2 yppl better on defense, but McNabb is the current all-time leader in lowest interception percentage (2.1%) while Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is intercepted 3.7% of the time during his career, which is worse than the league average. Aside from the line value, I also like the fact that Eagles’ head coach Andy Reid is 41-21-2 ATS in his career as an underdog or pick. I’ll consider Philadelphia a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Indianapolis 19 at MINNESOTA 20 UNDER 43.5
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Peyton Manning showed some rust in the Colts’ opening night loss to Chicago and he managed to average just 5.4 yards per pass play, which is much lower than the 7.5 yppp that we generally see from him. Some of the credit must go to the Bears’ defense, but Manning wasn’t looking downfield as much as he usually does, which could have been the result of missing all of training camp and the preseason. I expect Manning to be sharper this week and Minnesota’s pass defense looked vulnerable last week against the short passes of Aaron Rodgers, which kept the Minnesota pass rush at bay (0 sacks against Green Bay). The Colts didn’t do a great job against the Bears’ rookie runner Matt Forte, so there is some concern about stopping Adrian Peterson this week (the Vikings averaged 5.5 ypr last season and 5.7 ypr in their opener). The pass defense should have no trouble shutting down a sub-par Tarvaris Jackson, so it all comes down the run defense. The Colts were better than average in run defense last season, so last week may have been an aberration. Still, I expect Peterson and backup Chester Taylor to get their yards. My ratings favor the Colts by 1 point, so the line is about right, but Minnesota applies to a very good 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator and I’ll lean with the Vikings based on that. I’ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 43 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation that applies to this game.

Ben Burns is the #1 RANKED NFL HANDICAPPER in the entire history of one of the Internet's longest running & most respected sports monitors. Ben was 2-1last Sunday but this afternoon he's determined to GET OUT THE BROOM with his latest 3-Game ULTIMATE REPORT. This POWERFUL CARD includes his Personal Favorite. ALL 3 GAMES GO EARLY!




Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Game Time: 9/14/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I successfully played on the Titans last week. They got a great game from the defense and scored an outright win vs. a very good Jacksonville team. That win was costly though as quarterback Vince Young was injured and will be replaced by Kerry Collins. There were some real disturbing issues with Young, who had played terribly, after the game where Coach Fisher actually called the police on him. Fisher was quoted as saying: "I was given some information from people that were close to him late afternoon, early evening that was quite honestly very concerning to me. I'm not going to go into specifics, but it was concerning to me." That's a very big 'mental' distraction to have to deal with for the entire team. There's more than that too, as the opener was a very hard-hitting and hard-fought game and I expect it to have also taken a 'physical' toll. Note that the Titans were 0-2 after playing the Jaguars last season, losing 34-20 at Denver the week after they hosted Jacksonville. The following week, the Titans played here at Cincinnati and got crushed by a score of 35-6. The previous meeting was in 2005 and the Bengals also won that won, 31-23 at Tennessee. Bengals QB Palmer was 32 for 38 passes with 283 yards and three touchdowns in the most recent game. He was quoted as saying: "We can completely change the feeling we had ... if we come out and be physical, running the ball, throwing the ball and coming out with a win." Look for Palmer's Bengals to do just that, with both these teams moving to 1-1. *Personal Favorite




Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 9/14/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. Casual NFL bettors change their opinions very quickly. Last week, the betting public loved the Lions against the Falcons. Many of those same people were also writing off the Packers, due to the departure of Brett Favre. However, after the Lions were beaten by the Falcons and the Packers beat the Vikings, the majority of the betting public has already abandoned the Lions for this week's game. I believe that's given us terrific value on what I expect will be a highly motivated Lions team. They've got the schedule in their favor as the Packers are coming off a hard-fought divisional win on Monday night and now playing on a short week. Note that they were 1-2 SU/ATS after a Monday night game the past couple of seasons, going 3-5 ATS during that time when coming off a win vs. a divisional opponent. It should also be noted that the Packers were far from perfect in their Monday night victory. In fact, they committed 12 penalties for a Week 1-high 118 yards. I believe that the Lions are better than they showed last week. Detroit coach Marinelli said this of his team: "We are what we believe we are and I've got a great belief in this team, a very strong belief in this team. We'll pull together, hang together, and we're going to come out fighting." Look for the Lions, who were a perfect 4-0 in the preseason, to do as their coach says, bouncing back with a massive effort.




Game: New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams Game Time: 9/14/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Rams Reason: I'm taking the points with ST LOUIS. I successfully backed the Giants in Week 1. At the time, I stated that defending Super Bowl champions were typically highly profitable in the first game of the regular season. However, I also stated that with the exception of opening week, that there usually wasn't much value in backing them, due to the heavily inflated lines. After the Giants won and covered in their opener and with the Rams having been blown out in theirs, this afternoon's line has become very high. I feel that it's too high. Keep in mind that the Giants won at home, while the Rams lost on the road. Looking back to last year and we find that the defending Super Bowl champion Colts won big at home in Week 1 and also were big road favorites in Week 2. Yet, they only won their second game by two points, failing to cover the inflated number. Most know that the Giants lost Strahan in the offseason. They're also dealing with numerous other defensive line problems too though. The Giants have lost three of their last four road games vs. the Rams with the lone win coming by just five points. Looking back further and we find them at just 4-13 all-time in road games against the Rams franchise. Look for them to have their hands full once again.

thanks Zak

Brandon Lang's free pick is:

Pittsburgh and the Over (Teaser)

P P P

3% Tenn +1
3% GB -2.5
4% Pitt -6

spritzer goy

tb

wayne root..... "upset club"

medium plays.........VIKINGS +1- RAMS +8- REDSKINS +1

Larry Ness' 20* Division GOY (PERFECT 2-0 start in FB '08 with 20* plays!)
My 20* play is on the Det Lions at 1:00 ET. The series between the Lions and Packers dates back to the 1930 season but this Week 2 matchup will definitely offer "something new," as Detroit will face Green Bay in a game without Brett Favre being the Packers' QB, for the first time in 15 years! The Lions opened the '08 season with an embarrassing 34-21 loss in Atlanta, as the defense was shredded by Atlanta RB Michael Turner (22 carries for 220 yards) and rookie QB Matt Ryan threw a 62-yard TD pass on his first NFL pass attempt. Meanwhile, the Packers opened their '08 season Monday in Lambeau Field against the Vikings. All eyes were on Aaron Rodgers and he responded. The former first-rounder was 18-of-22 for 178 yards with a TD and no INTs (plus a TD run) in the 24-19 win. Against the highly-touted Minnesota 'D,' Rodgers' 81.8 completion percentage was the second-best in NFL history for a QB making his first start (minimum 20 attempts). That's pretty heady stuff and after the Lions allowed 34 points and 474 yards (third-most allowed in Week 1), Rodgers and the Packers should be confident. After all, they have swept the Lions in each of the last two season series and will take a five-game winning streak over them into Sunday's game. However, don't be too quick to dismiss the Lions after last Sunday's poor effort. The defense was just dreadful but with Green Bay RB Ryan Grant (12 carries for 92 yards on Monday night) being slowed by a hamstring injury and backup RB Brandon Jackson suffering from a concussion, the Packers running game may be way less than 100 percent. Both players were limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday and though both participated fully on Friday, question marks still surround the duo. Rodgers did complete a high percentage of passes LW but this will be his first road start. It comes indoors vs a division rival which is desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. The Green Bay 'D' will have a much tougher assignment this week. They may be happy they don't have to try and contain Adrian Peterson gain but Jon Kitna and Detroit's deep set of WRs are 'light years' ahead (and more dangerous) than Minnesota's Tarvaris Jackson, whose mobility (his greatest 'weapon'), was limited on Monday because of him wearing a brace. Let's remember Kitna has passed for over 4,000 in each of his two seasons in Detroit and it wasn't his fault LW in Atlanta (24-33 for 26 yards with two TDs and one INT) but rather the overall play of the Detroit defense which terribly let the Lions down. Green Bay has two excellent CB's in Harris and Woodson but Woodson has been downgraded to questionable with a toe injury. The Green Bay pass defenders love to "play man" and that could be dangerous here, indoors on turf. Calvin Johnson had seven catches for 107 yards LW, Roy Williams had three catches and a TD plus don't forget McDonald (79 catches LY) nan Furrey (61 catches LY nad 98 in '06). What a difference one week will make! NFC North GOY 20* Det Lions.

Good Luck...larry

Spritzer

5* Tenn

ROOT


Chairman- Jaguars
Millionaire- Redskins
Money Maker- Bucs
No Limit- Vikings
Insiders Circle- Lions
Billionaire- Rams
Perfect Play - Browns

spreitzer
ko...................lions
tko goy..........tb
tko.................denv, carolina
5* total............mia over

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY
20 Dime Jets

5 Dime Bills

Larry Ness' Superstar Triple Play-NFL Week 2 (1st of FB '08)
My three STPs are on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET, NYG/StL Over at 1:00 which is my Week 2 Total of the Week and the Sea Seahawks (4:05 ET).

STP on NYG/StL Over (NFL Week 2 Total of the Week)

Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available. STP on the Ind Colts.

Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available.

STP on the Sea Seahawks.

Note: Larry had some late-night computer problems on Saturday and his usual analysis is not available.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner NFL Week 2 (won 38-3 in Week 1w/Philly!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the TB Bucs at 4:05 ET. A rookie head coach (Mike Smith) and a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) helped lead the Falcons to a 34-21 Week 1 win at home over the Lions. With due respect to the two men just mentioned, RB Michael Turner (22 rushed for 220 yards) and a pathetic effort by the Detroit defense were the main reasons the Falcons won so impressively. Detroit allowed 318 yards on the ground (you must be kidding), as even Jerious Norwood chipped in 93 yard on 14 carries. Ryan, the team's No. 1 pick, threw a 62-yard TD pass on his first attempt and was never asked to do too much, finishing the game 9-of-13 for 161 yards (one TDP and 0 INTs). The start was "just what the doctored ordered" for a franchise which endured a humiliating 3-13 season in '07. Before the year began Michael Vick was imprisoned and Atlanta saw head coach Bobby Petrino quit on his players before the year was through, as some wondered if he had quit on his players before the year had even begun. However, things won't come as easily this week. The Falcons will visit Tampa Bay, which lost a tough 24-20 game LW at New Orleans. The Saints were a highly-motivated team and got an outstanding game from Brees (is he for real, or what?) plus a very good game from the underachieving (up 'til now) Reggie Bush. QB Jeff Garcia was one of the key contributors to Tampa's turnaround in 2007 but he's got a 'bum' ankle and Brian Griese will get the start. Word is that HC Gruden wasn't all that thrilled with Garcia's so-so performance vs the Saints and don't be surprised if Griese winds up as the starter this year. The Bucs didn't run often LW but Graham had 91 yards on 10 carries and Dunn had 54 yards on nine attempts (that's a combined 7.6 YPC!). Veteran WRs Galloway and Hilliard each had six catches and Antonio Bryant had three. Atlanta's rush D ranked 26th last year, its overall D ranked 29th and the Falcons were one of just FIVE team that allowed more than 400 points (414 / 25.9 per). Atlanta went just 1-7 SU on the road last year and the Falcons lost both games LY to the Bucs convincingly, 31-7 at home and 37-3 in Tampa. The Bucs were 6-1 SU and ATS at home in '07 (lone loss by one point to the Jags), before a "give-up" home loss in Week 17 to the Panthers. Note that Tampa was 6-2 SU at home in its playoff season of '05 as well and was 6-2 SU and ATS at home when it won the Super Bowl in '02. I believe the Bucs have "playoff potential" this year and expect them to play well at home, yet again. Atlanta is a rebuilding team with a rookie QB making his first road start and featuring a rookie head coach. That's NOT a good combination when facing the originator of what is known throughout the NFL as the Tampa-Two" defensive scheme. Expect DC Monte Kiffin to have more than a few "tricks up his sleeve" for Ryan, with some confusing zone-blitzes and that famous "cover-two" deep zone. The Bucs were tied for 3rd last year with 35 takeaways and 4th in TO margin at plus-15. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the TB Bucs.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (51-31 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Bo Red Sox at 1:35 ET. The Red Sox haven't given up hopes of a second straight AL East title, as after losing Game 1 of their doubleheader to the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon (8-1), they rallied to win the nightcap, 7-5. Tampa Bay also split a DH yesterday (at Yankee Stadium), meaning the Sox trail the Rays by two games. Perhaps more importantly, Boston leads Minnesota by five games in the wild card race, with 14 games remaining. The Blue Jays entered this four-game weekend series having won 11 of 12 but by losing two of the three so far, have all but been eliminated from postseason play. Toronto ace Roy Halladay (18-10, 2.77 ERA) will start on three days rest against Boston's Jon Lester (14-5, 3.23 ERA). Halladay has been very successful in five career starts on short rest, going 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA but it makes little sense to me why he's coming back on short rest here. I guess it's a personal decision, as he chases a 20-win season. Halladay gave up a season high-tying five ERs plus nine hits in six innings in his last outing (Weds at Chicago) and he'll face a Boston team which is 51-22 in Fenway this year (outscoring opponents by an average of 5.81 RPG-to-4.01), going 36-17 vs right-handers. Meanwhile, Boston lefty Jon Lester will face a Toronto team which is a modest 37-40 on the road in '08 and a team which is just 18-22 this year vs left-handers, averaging only 3.9 RPG. Lester's had quite a season (team is 20-10 in his starts, plus-$956), which included a no-hitter here in Fenway on May 19 (7-0 over KC). He lost his home debut (April 9) against the Tigers but hasn't lost in Fenway since. He's 9-0 in 14 starts in Fenway since that early April start, giving him a season-long 2.66 home ERA , as the Red Sox have gone 13-2 in his 15 home starts. That's some pretty good pitching and I'm riding him here. Las Vegas Insider on the Bos Red Sox.

Good Luck...Larry