Originally Posted by
edman5555
Daley might not be in good enough shape for this fight. He said before he wanted to fight for the title in june or july so he could get in better shape. That was after missing weight for his last fight. Daley will be relying entirely on his standup in this as well. If it touches the ground diaz can sub him pretty easy. Diaz is a good boxer with a good chin. I can see Daley winning by ko/tko or maybe even dec but it isn't worth betting on. Might as well hold out for something else on another card..too many coin tosses on this card.
Beerbohm is a good all around fighter and Aoki is a wiz on the ground. This is another coin toss. If Beerbohm can avoid getting subbed he can win but Aoki is an animal with subs. No bet for me.
Gegard vs Mike Kyle. This one is up in the air as well. Kyle can hit really hard and he is a lot bigger as far as I understand. Gegard did beat that kickboxer in K1 recently though. I feel like he can avoid getting caught but who knows. Also Kyle might be able to muscle him around the cage. I don't know what Gegards takedown defense is like nor do I know what Kyles takedowns are like.
I don't know shit about Tatsuya. I'm not looking anything up. Too late for that. Melendez did beat him before though.
There are some other fights happening on this card as well. I know Jorge Masvidal is fighting KJ Noons..according to bestfightodds.com alert section. A good area to look at to see upcoming fights. I bet Masvidal comes out as a dog and I think he has a chance. His standup is pretty good and he can land takedowns. He hung in there with Paul Daley and almost beat him.
Now that I mention him almost beating Daley is makes me think Daley is not really that great. Sorry for the mid speech revelation. On top of that, his knockout over kampmann doesn't impress me as much after watching Diego "beat" him/land a lot of shots. He knocked out scott smith who to my amatuer eyes has no boxing defense/limited technique, blocks punches with his face. He def has a lot of ko power though. That can't be overlooked.
Couple things: Daleys offense in this fight is going to be a shitload of leg kicks and punches. He isn't going to be trying to take down Diaz because Diaz is a slick bastard on the ground. Maybe he will incorporate a takedown or two at the end of the round to get some points or something but it won't be happening a lot. Anyone disagree?
Paul Daley leg kicks: those are going to be to wear down Diaz. Daley missed weight( I am pretty sure) for his last fight and said he wanted to wait until june/july to get in "championship shape" for the fight. He is fighting the beginning of April. If Daley gasses by the 4th or 5th round, how much of a difference are those leg kicks going to make? I am going to call those semi-moot because he isn't going to be wearing out diaz in this fight(most likely).
So that leaves boxing. Diaz is a really good boxer and he has a good chin. I think Daley CAN knock him out but he is going to have a hard time. It's not easy to knock out a good boxer with a good chin by outboxing him which is what I think he will have to do and is probably his only avenue to victory. Outside of a head kick or extre luck on the judges cards.
Diaz can even hurt Daley standing. Agree or disagree? He hung in there with KJ noons and outboxed him didn't he? I didn't see the fight..KJ is a pro boxer, probably a crappy one but still. I looked up his record, he only has 6 round fights on it. What is the deal with that? Anyways, I am picking Nick Diaz to win. He has the advantage stylistically if you ask me. I think he can probably hang on the feet with Daley and he can def win on the ground. Daley can't even shoot for a takedown in this one. He is going to be striking and only striking. Daley will have to do the guessing game where he wonders if a strike is coming or a takedown attempt. Anyways I know I just wrote a long story but let's hear your opinions..