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Sharp Money Plays Sports
NFL
Top Play - 5* Under 44 Eagles/Giants
SSIWINS
Risked 5 units to win 4.55*Cleveland Browns PK -110*vs Indianapolis Colts
Risked 5 units to win 6.5*Detroit Lions +130*vs Atlanta Falcons
Risked 5 units to win 5.75*Philadelphia Eagles -7 +115*vs New York Giants
Risked 5 units to win 4.55*Oakland Raiders -3 -110*vs Washington Redskins
Fezzik
NFL 3* EARLY RELEASE UNDERDOG
Jacksonville Jaguars +4
Seattle Seahawks/Tennessee Titans under
Kansas City Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers over
Oakland Raiders/Washington Redskins over
SSI WINS PARLEY LIFESTYLE PICKS
BAL ML/DEN ML/Mia ML/Phi ML (5 UNITS)-Sun
Ten ML/KC ML/Oak ML (7.5 UNITS)-Sun
VSI
3 Unit Play. Take #461 Baltimore -3.5 over Jacksonville (9:30p.m., Sunday September 24)
Defense wins this game and the defense I have seen in Baltimore has been nothing but impressive. Baltimore is looking to stay perfect after three weeks of football and with the travel to Wembley Stadium - London, England the team that has the better roster and defense wins and that is the Baltimore Ravens. Wouldn't shock me to see the Ravens score a defensive touchdown in this game and I see the Ravens causing problems for the shaky Jacksonville offense. Jaguar's quarterback Black Bortles could be in for a very long day in London and again defense wins this game. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 AFC games and the Jaguars are 7-19-1 in the month of September.
7 Unit Play. Take #478 Detroit +3 over Atlanta (1:00p.m., Sunday September 24)
Last weekend we cashed a 7-Unit NFL Play with a plus points at home - thank you Denver and this Sunday we look to hit again with plus points at home. Here is another team that has shocked me on their play for the first two weeks and if the Detroit Lions continue to play great team defense they should have no problem beating Atlanta. The Falcons beat the Packers last weekend at home but should have lost to the Chicago Bears in Week #1 as the Bears dropped a touchdown pass in the end zone with seconds to go in the 4th quarter. Detroit can go toe-to-toe on offense with Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons and again if the Falcons struggle like they did in Chicago I see the Lions controlling the tempo and squeaking out a home victory. Great quarterback matchup in this game between Matt Ryan against Matthew Stafford and again if RB Ameer Abdullah can get going on the ground that will open up the Lions offense and staying perfect after 3-weeks. The Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and getting plus points at Ford Field I see the Lions winning.
Stephen Nover
2* Kansas City / Chargers over 45.5
2* Seattle +3
Indian Cowboy
3-Unit Play.#481. Take Over 42.5 Seattle vs. Tennessee (4:05pm est)
The Chiefs are explosive with Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill. Alex Smith is much more aggressive with his downfield passing this year. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. It is plain wrong thinking to believe the Chiefs are a conservative team nowadays. The Chiefs are going to get their share of points against a Chargers defense that is likely to still be without stud cornerback Jason Verrett. The Chargers are almost always good for their share of points with Philip Rivers under center. Rivers has his full complement of receiving targets plus a top-10 running back in Melvin Gordon. Rivers' job is made easier with star safety Eric Berry out for the Chiefs. That's a huge plus for Chargers tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter
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The Seahawks are struggling to put up touchdowns through two games. The Titans very well could be the best team in the AFC South Division. They have a lot of young talent. But the Titans lack the pedigree and experience to beat an elite team. I see the Seahawks, with their defense dominant as ever, hanging around to get the victory. The Seahawks know how to win. Tennessee isn't at that stage yet. The Seahawks should have had two additional touchdowns against the 49ers last week, but C.J. Prossie and Tanner McEvoy each couldn't hold on to touchdown passes that were on the money. Russell Wilson is better than ever and the Seahawks may have found their most effective running back with Chris Carson rushing for 93 yards on 20 carries against the 49ers. Thomas Rawls should also be more effective in his second game since returning from a high ankle sprain. The Titans could be without their lead running back, DeMarco Murray, and good-looking rookie wide receiver, Corey Davis. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries.
3-Unit Play.#481. Take Over 42.5 Seattle vs. Tennessee (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
We roll with the Over here as though most of the public is on the Under, we indeed like the Over between these two teams. In fact, the public prefers the Under to a 2:1 ratio here. In fact, if you wait on this line you could probably get an even better line and let it drop all the way. Per this play, you have a Seattle offense that is waiting to bust out. Rememer, there are offensive coordinators and assistant offensive coordinators whose heads are always on the line in the NFL. Heck, look at the Bengals OC who got let go after 2 games. You don't think OC's see that across the league as literally it is truly a what have you done for me lately league. It is not past on the fanbase and upper management that the Seahawks are 26th in offense in the early going and have scored just 21 points against the Packers and Niners (9 against the Pack and 12 against the Niners). How horrible does it look that the Falcons put up a truckload of points on Green Bay where as Seattle did not even break double-digits against them. It looks bad. We think Seattle is going to come out absolutely focused on the offensive side of the ball. Don't give this Tennessee defense too much credit. They gave up 26 against Oakland and gave up 16 to the Jaguars. It's too small of a sample size to think this team is that awesome on defense as they are 20th in the league passing yards allowed and 17th in rushing yards allowed. Plus, Tennessee's offense has looked decent in the early going having the 6h best offense in the league and 6th best rushing attack as well and having scored 53 points in the first two games of the season, that bodes well for this team. We think this is a game that Seattle can bust out on offense after all the crticism they have taken and we think that Tennessee will do what Tennessee does and score their fair share of points as this game goes over the posted total.
Spartan
MONSTER NFL TRIPLE STAR BLOCKBUSTER
Oakland Raiders
NFL (7-5 +2.60) client solution sports
9/24
New Orleans Saints /Carolina Panthers UNDER 46.5 -115 (1PM)
New York Giants/Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 42.5 -110 (1PM)
Oakland Raiders -3 Washington Redskins (830PM)
Raphael Esparza (VSI) soccer
sunday mls
3 por-1
COWHERD BLAZIN' 5
Jags +3'
Chargers+3
Seahawks+2'
Bills+3
Cowboys-3
YTD 8-2
Norm Hitzges - Picks of the Pole
Double Plays
Green Bay -9 Cincinnati
Dallas -3 Arizona
Single Plays
Detroit +3 Atlanta
Baltimore -4 Jacksonville
Baltimore—Jacksonville UNDER 39 1/2
Chicago +7 Pittsburgh
Seattle +2 1/2 Tennessee
Kansas City -3 LA Chargers
Washington–Oakland OVER 54 1/2
Warren Sharp
Dolphins over 42
Browns over 41
Tony George
6* Titans
4* Jacksonville
4* KC / SD over
3* Dallas
Allen Eastman
7* 411 play ... KC
5* Oakland
4* Pitt / Chicago under
4* Miami
3* Browns
3* Eagles
Doc Sports
4* Jets
3* Seahawks
Jason Sharpe
5* KC
3* Saints
3* Bears
Double dragon sports - nfl
4-unit strongs
broncos
lions
titans
chiefs
raiders
cowboys
Big Al
NFL Selections for Sunday, Sept. 24
4* Packers/Bengals 'over' 46.5 (rotation #485/486, 4:25 pm)
3* Texans +14 (rotation #471, 1 pm)
3* Seahawks +3 (rotation #481, 4:05 pm)
1* Lions +3 (rotation #478, 1 pm)
NCAA Football Selections for Sunday, Sept. 24
1* E. Carolina +4.5 (rotation #421, 12 Noon)
The Sports Capper
FOOTBALL
Sunday
10000* Play Miami -6 over New York Jets (NFL)
New York has lost 57 of the last 86 games when playing as a home underdog and they have lost 111 of the last 191 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game. New York has lost 48 of the last 77 games after allowing 30 points or more in their last game and they have lost 119 of the last 207 games coming off a loss in their last game.
10000* Play Pittsburgh -7 over Chicago (NFL)
Pittsburgh has won 71 of the last 107 games coming off a win by 14 points or more in their last game and they have won 135 of the last 174 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Pittsburgh has won 77 of the last 110 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have won 103 of the last 158 games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game.
BONUS FOOTBALL PLAYS
500* Play Cleveland -1 over Indianapolis (NFL)
500* Play Oakland -3 over Washington (NFL)
Winning Angle
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
SUNDAY
NFL FOOTBALL
Play Jacksonville +3.5 over Baltimore (Top Play)
9:30 AM EST
Jacksonville has covered the spread in 10 of the last 14 games when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have covered the spread in two consecutive games when playing on a neutral field. Jacksonville has covered the spread in 14 of the last 24 games vs. AFC Conference Opponents and they have covered the spread in 4 of the last 6 games coming off a division loss in their last game.
Play Buffalo +3 over Denver (Top Play)
1:00 PM EST
Buffalo has covered the spread in 42 of the last 66 home games when the total posted is between 38.5 and 42 points and they have covered the spread in 62 of the last 107 games coming off a road loss in their last game. Buffalo has covered the spread in 48 of the last 84 games when playing in the month of September and they are only allowing an average of 10 points a game on defense this season.
Play Houston +13.5 over New England (Top Play)
1:00 PM EST
Houston has covered the spread in 62 of the last 116 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have covered the spread in 36 of the last 57 games after scoring 14 points or less in their last game.
Play Cincinnati +8.5 over Green Bay (Top Play)
4:30 PM EST
Cincinnati has covered the spread in 10 of the last 15 road games and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off two or more losses. Cincinnati has covered the spread in three consecutive games after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on a natural grass field.
Xpert Picks
FOOTBALL PLAYS
SUNDAY
Play Buffalo +3 over Denver----Top NFL Play
Denver has lost 51 of the last 91 games against the spread coming off a non-conference game and they have lost 41 of the last 72 games against the spread when playing on artificial turf. Denver has lost 70 of the last 131 games against the spread coming off a win by ten points or more in their last game and they have lost 7 of the last 10 games against the spread vs. Buffalo.
Play Oakland -3 over Washington----Top NFL Play
Washington has lost 113 of the last 196 home games against the spread and they have lost 49 of the last 83 games against the spread when playing in the month of September. Washington has lost 52 of the last 91 non-conference games against the spread and they have lost 88 of the last 163 games against the spread when the line posted is between +3 to -3.
EXTRA FOOTBALL PLAYS
Play Jacksonville +3.5 over Baltimore (NFL)
Play Houston +13.5 over New England (NFL)
Cousin Sal ( Iocono )
2 NFL Best Bets
Denver - Buffalo UNDER 40
Tennessee -2 1/2
Dr Bob
Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville (+4) vs Baltimore (London)
The Jaguars played better than their 21-point deficit to the Titans last week would indicate, as my metrics say they should’ve only lost by 6. Jacksonville’s defense has been solid this season with new additions Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye (9th in my metrics) and I expect that to continue against a Baltimore attack ranking below average according to my model who has now lost Danny Woodhead and key offensive lineman Marshall Yanda to injury.
The Ravens have the second-best point differential in the NFL (+34) through two weeks but have been lucky to allow 0 points in their opponents 4 trips to the Redzone. Baltimore has also benefitted from their opponents converting only 20% of 3rd downs against them – even the best defenses surrender about 35% of 3rd downs over the course of a season. I’m passing this game.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (+1.5) over Cleveland
This game will be decided by two young quarterbacks with little starting experience. Thus far in their careers, Jacoby Brissett has greatly outperformed DeShone Kizer – mainly due to Kizer’s near 7% interception rate. Brissett and Kizer have both relied on their feet with career scramble rates of 19% and 14% respectively.
Despite losing by two touchdowns last week, the Browns outgained the Ravens by 0.8 yards-per-play and, if it weren’t for 5 turnovers, Cleveland may have won that game. However, rookie quarterbacks tend to throw interceptions and it’s tough to trust Kizer until he proves to be less careless with his decision making.
Cleveland certainly does appear to be improved and the Colts have struggled without star quarterback Andrew Luck, but the Browns are a road favorite for only the 4th time in the last decade and Indy applies to a 67-20-1 ATS contrary indicator.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
CHICAGO (+7) vs Pittsburgh
There was value on Chicago heading into the season and I won my best bet on them in week 1, as they came within 5 yards from beating Atlanta. However, after playing so well against the Falcons the Bears have been priced like a team expected to win a full game more than their preseason win total in weeks 2 & 3 and the value no longer exists.
The Bears rely on their rushing attack led by a strong offensive line but they were forced to move away from the ground game after falling behind by double digits in the first quarter against the Buccaneers in week 2. That game would’ve been much closer if Chicago didn’t turn the ball over four times – one of which was returned for a touchdown and another was an inexplicable fumble on a Tarik Cohen punt return to set up Tampa’s offense in the Redzone.
Pittsburgh is coming off a convincing home win against the Bradford-less Vikings where their defense took care of business. Still, the Steelers offense has looked poor through two weeks ranking 25th in the NFL according to my metrics. Pittsburgh’s rush offense ranks last and the Steelers will need improve their rushing attack if they hope to get the offense going this season. I expect both Pittsburgh and Chicago to look to establish the run early in this game and the team that has success doing so is likely to cover. But, I have no opinion at the current line.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Lean – NEW YORK JETS (+6) over Miami
The Dolphins were outgained by almost 2 yards per play against the Chargers in week 2 and my numbers say the Chargers should’ve won by nearly 9 points. Miami was able to come out victorious due to a significant edge in special teams as Miami made 4 of 4 field goals, including a 54-yarder, while the Chargers missed 2 field goals including what would have been the game-winning attempt in the final seconds.
The Jets are a bad team but they weren’t as bad last week as the 45-20 score against the Raiders indicates. My metrics show the Jets played about 10 points better than the final score of that game and Josh McCown actually played pretty well with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Preseason implied wins would have made this game MIA -6 and I haven’t seen anything from these two teams to change preseason expectations. While there is no line value in this game I do lean with the Jets on a basis of a 118-65-1 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs of more than 3 points that lost the previous week by 24 points or more. I’d consider the Jets a Strong Opinion if the line gets up to +7 points
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Lean Under (40) – BUFFALO (+3) vs Denver
As discussed last week in our Strong Opinion on Denver, the Broncos have an advantage playing at home in high altitude early in the season when conditioning of their opponents isn’t as good as it is later in the season. Denver certainly benefitted from their altitude advantage as opponents in starting the season 2-0 with wins over the Chargers and Cowboys. The Broncos have a point differential of +28 and my numbers show them as the top performers so far this season. Denver’s 5th ranked defense may not be a surprise but their 3rd ranked offense is certainly much higher than preseason expectations. As I mentioned though, I think opposing defenses have been tiring out in the altitude on these long Broncos drives. These tired defenses have shown in the numbers as Denver has scored a touchdown on every trip to the Redzone this year, which is something that surely will not continue.
Buffalo was a dropped pass away at the end of the game from winning in Carolina last week but my metrics show they were outplayed – the Bills never even got the ball into the Redzone. Buffalo’s offense will need to improve if they hope to get back in the win column in week 3 but the Bills have less weapons on offense this season and I certainly don’t expect them to be as good offensively as they were last season. The Bills still have a solid defense and I will lean with the Under in this game.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) vs Houston
The overreaction to Houston’s disappointing week 1 performance went too far and I won my week 2 Best Bet as the Texans beat the Bengals outright as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The market has moved them back closer to preseason expectations as my ratings make the Patriots a 12.5 point favorite.
New England’s offense turned it around from their week 1 performance by putting up 36 points in New Orleans. However, the status of Rob Gronkowski will be something to monitor going forward. Gronk has been Tom Brady’s most effective receiver by far since coming into the league – he has gained nearly 0.2 points per target more than any other Patriot in that time span, which works out to a couple of points per game. I have no opinion on this game.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Lean Under (46.5) – CAROLINA (-5.5) vs New Orleans
This game will feature the league’s top performing defense against its worst performing defense. The Panthers have only allowed 6 points in their first two games, while the Saints have allowed 65 points. However, I see some room for improvement in the Saints defense because they’ve been unlucky to surrender a whopping 58% of 3rd downs conversions – I expect that percentage to be more like 45% moving forward.
Carolina’s offense has been about 5 points worse than average so that unit also struggled last season, so I don’t expect the Panthers to take full advantage of the Saints’ defensive issues. New Orleans’ offense has been roughly 7 points better than average thus far but they’re at a disadvantage against this menacing Panthers’ defense. The last four games in this divisional series have been decided by less than a touchdown and it should be another good game on Sunday. I lean Under.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lean – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3) over Kansas City
The Chiefs basically played the Eagles to a stalemate last week after a very impressive week 1 performance in New England. Philadelphia outgained Kansas City but was only able to score touchdowns on 2 of their 5 trips to the Redzone. The Kansas City offense has ranked in the top 10 both weeks thus far according to my numbers and much of that success is due to the deep ball. However, contrary to popular belief, Alex Smith hasn’t been much more aggressive than usual this season (14th in attempts of more than 20 yards) – but he has been very accurate and leads the league in deep passing yards.
The Chargers somehow found a way to lose another close game despite out-gaining the Dolphins by almost 2 yards per play. Philip Rivers looked good coming off a tough week 1 matchup in Denver, shredding the Dolphins for nearly 8 yards per pass play. The Los Angeles run game remains a problem, as my numbers have the Chargers rushing offense ranked 30th and Melvin Gordon can’t seem to get it going despite his head coach, Anthony Lynn, being a former NFL running back and a running backs coach for the previous 13 years of his career.
The Chargers have been much better than their record since the beginning of last season, as they’re actually an average team that has been unlucky to lose nearly every close game that they’re in. That can’t go on forever and I see a bit of value with the Chargers at +3 or more.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers
Lean – Cincinnati (+8.5) over GREEN BAY
I won both my best bets on last week’s Thursday night game – HOU +6.5 and Under 38. One of the reasons for making those plays was Andy Dalton’s inability to make plays under pressure. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league this year and Dalton ranked 7th amongst QBs when facing no pressure but ranked just 25th passing while under pressure in 2016, according to Football Outsiders. Last season, the Packers defense ranked better in pressure rate than both Baltimore and Houston, Dalton’s first two opponents, and Dom Capers is a master at disguising his blitzes.
My model has Green Bay’s expected point differential at +10 after two games against top NFC competition. However, the Packers have actually had a negative point differential thus far, which would usually be a flag for some value – but the market has virtually no confidence left in Andy Dalton and the spread on this game is actually a bit higher than it should be.
While I don’t like the match-up for Cincinnati, I do lean with the Bengals on the basis of a 53-17-3 ATS week 3 contrary indicator that is based on the Bengals’ poor performance to date.
Sunday card has the 6* NFL Game of the month and 3 more perfect system plays including the 19-0 Sunday night play and a perfect totals system. NFL Comp play below
The NFL Comp play is on Carolina at 1:00 eastern. The Panthers are 7-0 to the spread at home vs a team off back to back 10 point losses. Carolina fits a solid 40-8 week 3 specific system. The Saints off to their perpetual slow start and are allowing over 500 yards on defense. Conference road dogs off a +3 or higher home dog loss where they failed to cover by 10+ points and allowed 35 or more points are 0-11 and 2-9 ats vs a team off a home win and lose by an average 31-12 score. Look for Carolina to get the cover. On Sunday a massive card is up with a top 6* Play of the Month in the NFL, There are 3 plays from a perfect system, a big undefeated totals system and the 19-0 Sunday night football side on NBC. Simply put we are using the most comprehensive data in the industry and are ranked #1 overall in football combined over the last 3 seasons. Message to jump on. For the NFL Free play. Play on Carolina. RV- GC Sports
Goldsheet lts
Baltimore
Miami
Washington
Detriot
1.5 unit top choice Arizona (MNF)
King Creole
3* Over of the Week
Carolina / New Orleans over 46.5
Just a reminder ...
Ravens / Jags 9:30AM EST Kickoff
Even as a lean ... CPAW posted it for Info purposes.
It serves a better purpose posted here opposed to the Free play thread
Cowherds Blazing 5
Chargers +3
Seahawks -3
Buffalo +3
Jax +3.5
Dallas -3
Maddux
20 Sea -3
10 Jvll
10 KC Ov
10 GB Ov
Mike Francesa - WFAN - Wins every year - leaving Dec 15
LW (3-0) YTD (5-1)
Indy +1
GB -9
NYG +6
Emory Hunt
Oakland -3
Galin Dragiev
Washington money line
Philadelphia -6
Tampa under 41