Playoff Betting Stats ...
Favorites: 1-7 ATS
Home Teams: 2-6 ATS
Home Favorites: 1-6 ATS
Home Underdogs: 1-0 ATS
Over/Under: 4-4 Over/Under
Outdoors: 2-4 Over/Under
Indoors: 2-0
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Playoff Betting Stats ...
Favorites: 1-7 ATS
Home Teams: 2-6 ATS
Home Favorites: 1-6 ATS
Home Underdogs: 1-0 ATS
Over/Under: 4-4 Over/Under
Outdoors: 2-4 Over/Under
Indoors: 2-0
Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker ...
“We didn’t even want to tempt the bettors with anything closer to a touchdown, and it’s a good thing, because as expected, all of the early money is on New England"
“This spread is probably going to creep north as the week goes on, but I’d be shocked if it went off at double digits. I’m certainly not expecting Jacksonville to win with Blake Bortles at quarterback, but that defense could keep things interesting.”
After opening the Pats -8, Bookmaker.eu was already up to 9 by late Sunday night.
“Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag"
“We saw a lot of moneyline money on that side against Atlanta, and will likely get the same action here. Minnesota was fortunate to get a win in the divisional round, but it was by far the better team"
“Two fantastic defenses on display which should make for an exciting game for the football purists.”
Minnesota drew the early action Sunday night at Bookmaker, bumping the line up to 3.5.
Bet Labs ...
Super Bowl odds per latest simulation:
Vikings 38.11%
Patriots 35.08%
Jaguars 16.83%
Eagles 9.98%
Tom Brady has as many Super Bowl wins (5) as the other three starting QB have playoff starts (5)
Patriots 18-3 at home in playoffs since 2000
3 QBs that beat them: Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco (twice)
Bet Labs Sports ...
NFC Championship
Vikings -3.5 at Eagles
Total 38
Bets evenly split but 60% of spread dollars on Minnesota
AFC Championship
Patriots -9.5 vs. Jaguars
Total 46.5
63% of spread tickets and 74% of dollars on New England
The "great" Jags defense will be a big storyline all week, but don't be fooled.
They've allowed 32 points per game in their last four road games.
The Patriots defense has allowed just 14 points per game over their last 13 games.
Over their last six home games, they've allowed just 12.16 points per game.
The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games. They are the only team in the last 5 years to cover the spread 10 times in an 11 game span during the same season.
In the last 10 years, two other teams did it ... 2011 Saints / 2007 Chargers.
NFL Playoffs
< 50% Bets ... 5-3 ATS
Sports Insights ...
Early spread tickets
63% on Patriots (-9)
37% on Jaguars (+9)
52% on Vikings (-3.5)
48% on Eagles (+3.5)
Conference Championship game #'s
Home team won the last 8 straight up
Home team 7-1 ATS
Faves 6-2 ATS
Lone dog upset was Broncos +3 in 20-18 win over Pats in 2016
Underdogs are a best-ever 7-1 ATS in the NFL playoffs so far.
Previous best to this point ... 6-2 ATS in 2006 and 5-1 ATS in 1984 (only 2 wild card games then).
Jags ... 0-7 SU in Foxborough
Vikings -3.5 at Eagles
Road teams have been favored in conference title games 14 times ... have gone 8-6 SU
Pats -9 vs Jags
This is the first time we've seen a spread of 9 or higher in conference champ game since Pats were -14 vs. Chargers Jan. 20, 2008.
Patriots won 21-12
We've seen 13 spreads of 9 or higher in NFL conference champ games since 1984.
Favorites are 12-1 SU / 7-6 ATS / 6-7 O/U
Faves of exactly 9 (like the Pats vs Jags) are 3-0 SU & ATS.
16 NFL conf. champ games have had totals of 38 or lower since 1984 (before Vikes-Eagles this week)
O/U is 9-7
Top Bet ...
Early Betting Trends
73% of cash on Patriots -9.5
54% on Vikings -3.5
CG Technology ...
Lookahead Super Bowl lines
Vikings vs. Patriots (-3, 48)
Eagles vs. Patriots (-7, 45)
Vikings (-4.5, 40) vs. Jaguars
Eagles vs. Jaguars (-1, 38)
From 107 William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada and their mobile betting app
Public is crushing the Vikings spread (89%) and Patriots spread (77%)
This is the first time since the 1970 merger that all 4 teams in the conference championship games had a Top 5 scoring defense that season
Vikings: 15.8 PPG allowed (1st)
Jaguars: 16.8 PPG allowed (2nd)
Eagles: 18.4 PPG allowed (4th)
Patriots: 18.5 PPG allowed (5th)
Patriots ...
6-0 SU and ATS in last 6 home games with an avg win margin of 17.3 points
7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in last 7 home playoff games with an avg win margin of 18.3 points
7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in last 7 games vs Jaguars with an avg win margin of 17.43
The Vikings had the NFL's #1 total defense this season
In their 4 games without Carson Wentz (including playoffs), the Eagles have averaged 277.5 total YPG ... which would have given them the NFL's worst total offense if applied over the full 2017 season
Brady is a profitable bet in his career in the playoffs - but barely.
He's 18-16-1 ATS, so you'd be up $36.38 if you bet $100 on all of them.
NFL Playoffs ... since 1978
Home Dogs
First 2 rounds of Playoffs ... 20-9-1 ATS
Conference Championship Round ... 6-8 ATS
Since the AFC South was formed in 2002 the New England Patriots ...
24-2 SU home record vs teams in that division.
17-game home-winning streak vs teams in that division.
10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs teams in that division.
Jags must sack Brady to cover against the Patriots
Sacking Brady
0-1 ... 90-43-2 ATS
2-3 ... 64-46-6 ATS
4+ ... 13-21-1 ATS
Patriots ATS Win %
AFC Championship Total holding steady at 46.5 on Tuesday.
Jaguars highest total this season was 43, which easily went over in 44-33 loss at SF.
As of today, bettors backing the over.
The playoffs are a showcase for NFL stars, yet overlooked players or aspects often decide which team advance.
Here are two X-factors for each team during conference championship weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Good Bortles or Bad Bortles ... The Jaguars are built on defense and their ability to run the ball. That's partially because QB Blake Bortles has been wildly inconsistent throughout the season. Including the playoffs, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 18-to-3 in victories but 5-to-10 in defeat.
Jags DT Malik Jackson ... Against the Steelers on Sunday, Jacksonville’s pass rush generated some big plays but couldn't apply enough pressure to prevent Ben Roethlisberger from throwing five touchdowns. The key to disrupting Tom Brady and New England’s offense is to push the offensive line — especially the interior — into the pocket and disrupt Brady’s timing.
Been there, done that ... This is the seventh consecutive season the Patriots have reached the AFC Championship Game and the 12th time overall during the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. However the appearance will be just the Jags' third since their inaugural season in 1995. This is a stage that can intimidate young teams and force them into the type of pressure-laden mistakes New England is unlikely to commit.
Quick release ... Few passers get rid of the ball more quickly than Brady. When facing a Jacksonville defense that has elite speed and athleticism at each level, expect Brady to distribute the ball quickly in hopes his play makers can exploit gaps or maybe take advantage of inexperienced defenders overpursuing the play.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Vikings S Harrison Smith ... His ability to line up just about anywhere on the field presents a physical, game-changing presence. Smith is most comfortable near the line of scrimmage and could be a key figure in smothering TE Zach Ertz and Philadelphia’s running game.
Eagles LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai ... Filling in for injured Jason Peters, Vaitai has had an up-and-down stretch. His next matchup will come against star Vikings DE Everson Griffen, who collected 13 sacks in the regular season and one against the Saints in the divisional round. If Griffen can get to QB Nick Foles regularly, disaster could ensue.
Third downs ... Minnesota shredded New Orleans on ever-crucial third downs, going 10-17 (59%). Though the Vikings needed a miracle touchdown at the end to win, if their offense can stay on the field, Philadelphia’s defense could tire with a high volume of snaps.
Turnover margin ... The Eagles ranked fourth in the NFL in takeaway/giveaway differential (plus-11). But in the victory against Atlanta in the divisional round, Philadelphia gave up the ball twice, leading to all 10 of the Falcons' points. The Eagles might not be so lucky if they’re careless again.
Patriots O-line #1 in run blocking per Football Outsiders adjusted line metric
Jaguars defense 28th in same stat
Vikings and Eagles defenses rank in top 6 in pass and rush yards/attempt
Total is 38 points, lowest over/under for a conference title game since 2011
Conference Championship games ... since 1980
Over/Under
Over - 35
Under - 36
Push - 1
The Patriots haven't played on the road since Dec 17.
During that span, the Jags have traveled to San Francisco, Tennessee and Pittsburgh.
By the time the Jags land in New England, they will have traveled around 9387 miles to the Patriots' 0.
The Vikings are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 January road games.
2 of the Patriots 3 losses came against 2 of the 3 best rushing teams they faced this season (KC, Carolina). Miami had 120 yds rushing in the other loss.
The Jags are 1st in the NFL in rush yds per game.
Tom Brady: 286.1 pass YPG this season (1st in NFL)
Jaguars Defense: 169.9 pass YPG allowed this season (1st in NFL)
This is the 4th meeting between the #1 passer and #1 pass defense in a playoff game since 1990
The #1 pass defense is 3-0 in those games
Prior to Stefon Diggs' TD in the Divisional Round, 5 teams in the last 10 seasons had won a playoff game on a walk-off TD to advance to another postseason game that season
All 5 of those teams lost their next game, by an average of 23 points
Since the Jaguars entered the NFL in 1995, they are 1-10 (.091) against the Patriots, including playoff games.
That's the worst winning percentage of any team vs one opponent (min. 10 games) in that span.
Brady ... Conference Championship Games
15 TDs / 12 INTs / 81.7 QB rating
That's his lowest QB rating of any playoff round.