1.15.12

The Houston Texans pack their bags and head out to Baltimore, for a rematch of of their October 16th tilt, back when the Texans were still able to have Matt Schaub behind center. Baltimore won 29-14, despite being -2 in turnovers. Ray Rice ran for 101 yards, and Joe Flaco was able to throw for 305 yards against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL (2nd in Defensive Passer Rating). The Ravens were able to shut down Arian Foster, who rushed 15 times for just 49 yards.

The Ravens have several key advantages in this game, not only do they have an extra week to prepare, but the Houston Texans are a warm weather dome team playing outside for the 1st time in a month.

Arian Foster was able to torch the Bengals last week, going for 153 yards on 24 carries, but against the Ravens, Foster will face a team that has allowed an NFL 2nd best 3.54 yards per rush, who are 2nd in the NFL at getting off the field on 3rd downs, allowing conversions on just 32.13 % of tries, and are the NFL's #1 ranked team in Defensive Passer Rating.

For Houston to be able to have a chance, they will need to play great defense, and get Arian Foster going in the running game to take pressure off of their young QB, and that is something that they have not been able to do against top defenses this year, and a difficult task to do today against the Ravens, who have exceled at stopping the run in the playoffs (81.9 yards/game and 3.1 yards per carry, both of which are the best in NFL postseason history). This year agaisnt against teams ranking in the top 10 in yards per carry allowed, he averaged just 3.37 yards a crack in the regular season, and he also struggled catching balls against these types of defenses,, with a 6.04 yards per catch, a huge drop off of his season average of 11.6. The Texans will not only struggle to move the ball between the 20's, but inisde the Red Zone, the Ravens have been the NFL's best defense, allowing TD's on just 38.10% of drives, not a good formula for the Texans, who on the road rank 27th in the Red Zone.

Joe Flaco should be the diffrence maker in this game, and I think he will play well in his first ever home playoff start. Flaco's playoff numbers have been poor, but they have all come in road games, and like most QB's, has better numbers at home. Flacco has won 18 of his last 19 home starts, throwing 29 TD's and 8 INT's. I think Flacco, Ray Rice, and a Baltimore defense that forces over 2 TO's a game at home this year welcome the Texans to cold weather playoff football and advance to the AFC Championship.

Baltimore Ravens -7 (-123)

Im leaning this way too my man. GL today and way to go yesterday!

I wound up changing my mind, gonna get on the Texans.

GL man.

::thumbup:: NICE WRITEUP

cool ::cheers::

The defending Super Bowl Champions have had a tougher bye week than the other home squads, as they have had to try and cope with the loss of their Offensive Coordinators son, who died earlier this week. It is impossible to cap how much the Packers have been able to maintain focus on practice and gameplanning in the wake of this tragedy, but I think we will see an extremely focused, determined team from the opening kickoff.

The New York Giants have been playing well the last few weeks, and have been playing must win football for several weeks now, and the public and pundits are all too quick to remind us of how great the Giants were on their run to the SuperBowl a few years back, a year they went thru the Packers on the road. It is not very often you will see so much love and attention given to a road team in this round, playing a team that lost only 1 game all year, and who also happen to be the defending Super Bowl Champions. And I am sure the Packers remember that game too.

Aaron Rodgers gets his favorite toy back today as Greg Jennings returns, and should be licking his chops to face a Giants team that ranks 20th in Defensive Passer Rating and had good success against in the first game these teams played, going 28/46 369 yards, 4 TD's and 1 Int, and rushing for 32 yards. Rodgers is quite mobile, and that will ease some of the pressure of the Giants pass rush. The Packers should have success moving the ball, and scoring in the Red Zone, where they have been outstanding, especially at home, where they leadthe NFL, scoring TD's on 74.29% of possessions. Turnovers are key in playoff games, the Packers rank 2nd in the league in giveaways, (0.9/game), and 2nd in takeaways (2.4/game)

The Giants will have some success on offense, the Packers defense is far from airtight. I think Eli has had a great year, but think his team lets him down today.

With the Packers being a fast starting team, scoring 23.4 points per game at home in the 1st Half, and the Giants much slower out of the gate, scoring 9/PPG on the road, I am going to double dip on this one


Packers -4.5 1st H (-105)
Packers -7 Game (-123)