Week 7 Betting Recap

Friday night in the Carrier Dome brought us a Syracuse upset as +24 point dogs over Clemson. The Orange closed +1300 on the moneyline and put a dent into Clemson’s title hopes, especially with QB Kelly Bryant’s status in the air due to a concussion. Syracuse’s upset was the biggest in the ACC that we’ve tracked dating back to 2005. ACC dogs closing +1100 or higher had been 0-48 straight up before the win by Syracuse.


Later on Friday night, Cal crushed Washington State 37-3 as +580 moneyline dogs. The upsets continued into the early Saturday games with BC (+19 spread, +1050 moneyline) winning 45-42 at Louisville, and UConn (+11 spread, +340 moneyline) winning 28-24 at Temple. We even got another big upset late Saturday night when Arizona State (+17 spread, +700 moneyline) beat Washington 13-7. Four Top-10 teams lost overall. There will also be one game played on Sunday (Akron-WMU) after field conditions were too poor to play on Saturday.


Week 7 Betting Trends ...

Home teams: 28-26 ATS
Underdogs: 32-23 ATS
Unders: 34-23


While road teams still have a huge edge overall this season, contrarian home dogs did very nicely in Week 7, going 10-5 ATS.


Unders are now 253-195 this season, a rate of 56.5%. Teams that have gone Under in every game are Akron, Houston, Troy, MTSU, and FSU. Only team that hasn’t been involved in an Under is UL Monroe.


Most Extreme Totals ...

Highest: TTU/WVU 78.5 (barely went over as WVU won 46-35)
Lowest: Michigan St/Minnesota 40 (easily went over as MSU won 30-27)


Biggest ML upsets ...

Syracuse +1300 vs. Clemson (Friday night)
BC +1050 at Louisville
Arizona St +674 vs. Washington
South Alabama +644 at Troy (Wednesday night)
Cal +580 vs. Washington St (Friday night)
Tulsa +447 vs. Houston


Biggest Underdogs ...

Arkansas +37 at Alabama (covered and lost 41-9)
East Carolina +36 at Central Florida (did not cover and lost 63-21)
Missouri +29.5 at Georgia (covered and lost 53-28)



BYU is now 0-7 ATS on the season after losing 35-10 at Mississippi State. BYU opened +21, moved to +24, and closed +22.5. FSU is the only other team in the nation without a cover, going 0-3-2 ATS so far.


Texas (+9) couldn’t get the win but covered in their 29-24 loss to Oklahoma. Tom Herman’s teams have now covered 12 straight games as an underdog dating back to 2012.


There were lots of points in the Texas Tech/WVU game and these may have been the best. However, WVU stormed back to win and cover 46-35 after going down 35-17 after halftime. Every single bet on the ‘Over’ cashed (opened 80.5, dropped to 71.5, closed 78.5).


EMU (+6.5) bettors were thrilled going for 2 at the end of the game rather than forcing overtime. Oh and Army moneyline bettors were happy after the play, too.


Auburn/LSU was an extremely popular game to bet on, and Auburn closed with more than 70% of spread bets. They led 20-0 but LSU came back to win and cover 27-23.


Air Force has now failed to cover the week after playing Navy in 8 straight seasons. They dropped from -10.5 to -7.5 vs. UNLV and while they did win 34-30, they weren’t able to cover the spread.


The Kansas Jayhawks have now lost 43 straight road games. Their last win was in 2009 at UTEP 34-7. They play at TCU next week and will be 21+ point underdogs once again.


Texas A&M finally covered a game following a straight up loss, their first in 13 tries. They beat Florida in a nailbiter 19-17. The Aggies were a popular underdog pick, getting 70% of spread tickets and moving from +4 to +2.5. A nice win for public bettors.


Minnesota (+3.5) scored two touchdowns with under 6 mins to go to cover, but lost 30-27 vs. Michigan St.


Oregon St played its first game under interim HC Cory Hall on Saturday after Gary Anderson was fired. The Beavers had gone just 1-5 ATS this season but were able to cover +10 against Colorado. Oregon State was a very contrarian and sharp bet, getting just 19% of tickets but moving 3+ points off the opening line. They almost got the win too, but lost 36-33.


3 teams had a chance to go over their Season Win Totals on Saturday but all lost: Maryland Over 3.5, Buffalo Over 3.5 and UL Monroe Over 3.5.


UNC sealed the Under 7 for their Season Win Total after losing at home to UVA. Tar Heels are now 1-6 SU.