9-29-08

Brandon Lang

MONDAY
15 Dime 6-point Teaser - Ravens and Under
(Let's take the Ravens up to +11 and take the total up to 40 and go under)



FREE - Under Ravens/Steelers

Dr bob write up for tonite.

PITTSBURGH (-5.0) 16 Baltimore 13
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-29 - Stats Matchup
I don’t see how either team is going to move the ball with any consistency in this game, as both defenses are strong and both offenses are challenged. Baltimore held two pretty good offensive teams, Cincinnati and Cleveland, to just 3.1 yards per play and 3.0 yppl, respectively, so shutting down a Pittsburgh attack that has averaged just 4.5 yppl and will be without star back Willie Parker shouldn’t be a problem. Ben Roethlisberger was banged up in last week physical game against the Eagles (he was sacked 8 times), but he should play in this game and backup Byron Leftwich probably couldn’t be any worse than Roethlisberger has been (just 5.4 yards per pass play). Pittsburgh’s defense has given up just 3.9 yppl to 3 good offensive teams (Houston, Cleveland, and Philly) and the Steelers should dominate a Ravens’ attack that is just below average running the ball (4.1 ypr if you take out Mark Clayton’s 42 yard reverse) and is very bad throwing the ball with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, who has averaged just 5.1 yards per pass play against two teams (Cleveland and Cincy) with bad pass defenses. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 6 ½ points with a total of 25 ½ points, but the Steelers apply to a negative 20-51-2 ATS situation and I’ll lean with Baltimore plus the points. I’ll also favor the under (34 ½ points).

BEN BURNS
TOTAL OF THE WEEK

I'm playing on Baltimore and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the number. This number is low for good reason. The Steelers managed only six points vs. Philadelphia last week. The Eagles sacked Pittsburgh QB Ben Rothlisberger eight times, eventually knocking him out of the game in the fourth. While I expect Big Ben to be in the starting lineup, he may still not be 100% as the injury was to his right-hand. The Ravens have always loved blitzing to begin with and they've been busy studying last week's game tapes. In other words, Rothlisberger is likely to be seeing plenty of pressure again this week. Note that Baltimore coach Jim Harbaugh was a defensive coach with Philadelphia from 1998-2007 and still has regular talks with Andy Reid and Eagles' defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. The Steelers would love to take the pressure off Rothlisberger by getting their running game going. However, that may be easier said than done. For starters, Willie Parker is expected to be out and he entered Week 4 as the AFC's second-leading rusher. Additionally, the Ravens boast the league's top-ranked defense. Through their first two games they've given up an average of only 161.5 yards per game. The Steelers' defense isn't too shabby either though. Indeed, the Steelers have given up a mere 234 yards through game - that's second only to Baltimore. Those outstanding defenses have the Steelers off to a 2-1 start and the Ravens off to a 2-0 start. Looking back at the last couple of seasons and it's interesting to note that the UNDER was 9-2-1 when the Ravens were coming off two or more consecutive victories. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 33-16-1 the last 50 times that the Ravens were in that situation. We've seen some high-scoring Monday night games the past couple of weeks. The Steelers have a tendency to play relatively low-scoring games on Monday though. The UNDER is 2-1 their last three Monday night games and 17-11-1 the last 28. Look for a "defensive battle" with the UNDER improving to a perfect 6-0 the last six times that the Ravens played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 32.5 to 35 points. *NFL TOW

Root

Chairman- Steelers

larry ness 20* steelers

PPP

4% Steelers

Scott Spreitzer

Total Ravens / Steelers Over