Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half

Here you go...

Let's say you have a team down like 20 at the half... What's the play...?

TAKE THE LEADING TEAM AND THE UNDER AND, please, get a small play the PARLAY, also!

Note that I didn't mention numbers, because they simply don't come into play - there'll be a close one every once in a while, but this angle always seems to fit. That is to say, the action from people chasing their perceived-losing bets seems to drive the line to a number that always still fits.

I'm not exactly sure where the cut-off is, and as always, you do have to look at the overall match-up.

For example, a good team at home up maybe 10 or 11 on a weak opponent might be 60/40 or better. Bump that number up a little more - you're talking gold. At some point, the trailing team will start missing desparate threes as all of the starters head to the bench to get ready for tomorrow and the leading team just tries to play tight-D...milk the clock...dribble...pass... What else is there to do...???
...So inevitable...

On the road, with an even-ish match-up, the number is probably around 16. Tonight, the SA Spurs were up 20 (61-41) in Denver at the half - line at tip-off was DEN -4 O/U 195; halftime line was Spurs +6 O/U 101... 2nd half Spurs covered by 3 and under covered by 4 - a close call, but not really.

Last night, NYN at CLE: Knicks down 35-61 at the half - Tip-off line was CLE -15.5, O/U 214; halftime line was CLE -1.5 O/U 107.5 - Cav's covered by 8.5 and under by 3.5, again, seemingly close to going over...again, not really that close...

Also last night, the Lakers were up 10 in Philly - guess what - that didn't quite fit - again, it seems like the number is a little higher on the road....16, maybe 18, depending on overall match-up.

Note also that if there is no tomorrow - ie, during or fighting for the playoffs - this angle won't fit.

I'm going to try to dial the numbers in tighter on this and report back, but I couldn't wait to share this...

Please let me know what you think - I'm pretty sure I'm onto something here...

::clover::

Very interesting. Could be a good opportunity to make some bucks.

I shuold have mentioned that I discovered this angle by betting against it WAY too many times, while chasing that losing-big-at-the-half bet. I'd either play on the trailing team to come back a little, or maybe grab the over, hoping the trailing team at least makes a strong effort to come back.

They would never quite get there, even though they may have looked fairly promising early in the 4th. I'd kick myself in the ass, then forget about it, only to make the same bad plays again the next time the situation came up!

One day, just after locking in the wrong way again, I realized what I had done, and then made the 2-unit reverse bet - thank GOD I had bank at that point of the night!

I just realized that's another good idea: Don't beat yourself up over your losers! Do try to review your losers and try to see if maybe there is something to be learned from it...

I wish I could take my own advise more often!

Thanks Spuddy,great info

IT'S ON!

Try
2H UTAH +3
2H Under 105.5

GL Everybody!

Whooop! THERE IT IS!

2H UTAH +3 ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::
2H Under 105.5 ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::

& the parlay - ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::

Looked like the rout might on earlier tonite for NJN vs MIN, but late 2ndQ surge by MIN killed it w/NJ up only 9 at the half - MIN had a reason to come out fighting...

I can't beleive what an automatic lock this can be...

We have John Q Public chasing his perceived-to-be-loser (and of course the books know this - that's who they're throwing the line out for - us), at the wheel and driving this f***ing this automatically in our favor!

FCK GOLD - this may be plutonium fellas...

Stay tuned for... ::hammertime::

Nice!

Yup...

It's ON!

Play-
DEN +3
Under 104

...don't forget a small parlay...

It's ::hammertime::

2H DEN +3 ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::
2H Under 104 **Push** ::moneybag::

...& the parlay... ::moneybag::

Also tonight...

2H CLE +2 ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::
2H Under 193.5 ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::

...& the parlay... ::moneybag:: ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::

CLE @ CHAR - tip-off line CLE -8; o/u 184 - CHAR down 20 @ half (55-35).


MEM @ NO - tip-off NO -14.5; o/u 192.5 - MEM down 19 @ half (39-58) - I was out & about & never did see the halftime line, BUT, it's relatively certain that it was buzy being driven the wrong way and in our favor by John Q Public; and it this is kinda the point here. I'll bet dollars to donuts this one fit too.


GSW @ SAS - tip-off SAS -12; o/u 213 - GSW down 16 @ half (49-65) - I was leary on the 2H Under here, due to GSW-lack-of-D... It may have fit anyway as the 2H total was 97; that plus the 114 1H pts is still under the tip-off line by 2, and the books do try to keep their line intact, as much as possible, and this one likely fit on the under also, although I don't remember the 2H o/u number, since I didn't think I was interested. (...Another good leason...?)

Did take 2H SAS -2.5 ::moneybag:: ::moneybag::

I have taken my account from a rock bottom 2-digit figures to 4-digit figures this week - LARGELY due to this situation.
Please,
Stay tuned for ::hammertime::

Dude, you got a Nice system here man.

Whats the play on the Celtics vs Pacers at half time?

Sorry, this angle only works when a rout is in progress (down around 20 at the half; it may fit elsewhere, depending on the overall matchup)... I will post whenever the rout is on & I'm playing it - if I'm around and got the internet available.

4Q just started & I really have no idea where this one is headed, but seems like Indy thinks they have a reason to play, and therefore, they are still in this - didn't see the line but pick here prob wuz Indy & over...

Not sure this one fits...

LAL up 12 @ half... trying...

2H LAL -5.5
2H Under 103.5 (heavy)

Lakers are 12 points up over the Bucks. I would class this as a rout in progress since the Lakers are the better team and playing on their home ground with a big lead.

Lakers are -17 on the line bet.
The game total at half time stands at +-177 (74 points have been scored so far up to half time.)

Ok lets give this a shot.

$100 on lakers -17
$100 on game total being under 177.
$20 on the parlay.

2H LAL Didn't fit... WAY over 2H... MIL must have believed they were still in this one after half, perhaps inspired by the low 1Q total & really low 2Q total... Lakers 1H lead needed to be larger here for the angle to fit on this one...

2H LAL -5.5 :burn: :burn:
2H Under 103.5 (heavy) :burn: :burn: :burn: :burn:

BOS is up like 25 @ SAC at halftime - gametime line was Bos -13 O/U 197

2H PLAY will be on BOS & UNDER
--------------------
2H BOS +0.5
2H Under 97

Please ENJOY cashing this with me...

GL Everybody!
---------------------
2nd Half-

BOS 49
SAC 29

Covered:
2H BOS +0.5 by 20.5 ::moneybag::
2H Under 97 by 18.5 ::moneybag::

Stay tuned...
-------------------
Still working on this 'system'... (only quitters end up losing)...

In the future, I'll try to post these as early as I start to see this lucrative situation developing...

Like tonight, I'll post early & then update the post with my plays right after the lines hit the boards and I get locked in.

If you see a rout on (that is, a good team up like 20 vs relatively weak team), it's likely this situation fits...

It looks like young teams & the NYN & GSW seem to not know to give up and usually push these OVER and often cover 2H - I'll be avoiding these plays, or maybe even reversing the 'system' where these teams are involved.

Also-
If the halftime score is way low in a game where the total is expected to be HIGH, the 2H Under probably won't fit, extra especially if it's a team with no-D, like GSW or NYN mentioned above.

I'll keep tweeking this - please let me know if you have any further insight here...

12/30
--------------

at the half
MIN 62
DAL 40

tipp-off line DAL -13 o/u 197


PLAY 2H MIN & UNDER...
------------------
2H MINN +12.5
2H UNDER 101.5

(...and both are rising, as expected)
------------------
Did not fit here - :burn: :burn:

The LESSER team was up at the half this time, DAL rightfully believed they could come back and win this thing, which they did and this also led to the 2H Over.
2H
MIN 38
DAL 67

FINAL
MIN 100
DAL 107

The STRONGER team (preferably at home, but don't exclude a strong team on the road) needs to be the one up like 20 at the half, NEVER the WEAKER team, as witnessed above.
When the weaker team is up at the half, the play is the one anyone would guess, that is, for the stronger team to come back and to put up points in heroic fasion...

I'll keep working on this...

Washington vs Boston at half time: 34-58 in favor of Boston. The line was -27, the total for the 2nd half was -188. I had no doubt in my mind that this was a route. After the third quarter, the score is 55-86. Looking right to be on track.

The Boston coach, however, decides to leave the entire Boston bench on for the last quarter. I bet 3K on the line, and as a result I lose 3K as they fail to cover as the bench failed to defend the points coming through. Why do coaches do this? At least put a few starters on to win the quarter and have a comprehensive 4 quarter crushing victory.

I don't think betting on a huge under is at all viable any more given that coaches / players (even referees) will do everything in their power to bring the scores down a bit.