8-31-08

::handshake::

BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm playing on Kentucky and Louisville to finish UNDER the total. People have come to expect a lot of points when these two instate rivals get together. As a result of those expectations, recent Kentucky/Lousiville clashes have seen quite high over/under lines. This, in turn, has left plenty of room for the final scores to fall below those high totals and has helped lead to the UNDER going a profitable 5-2 in this series during the past seven years. Despite the fact that both offenses suffered major losses from last year, this afternoon's number is still generously high. The Wildcats must replace star quarterback Andre Woodson along with running back Rafael Little and the bulk of the receiving corps. Overall, they have just four offensive starters back. Three of those come on the line which should mean that the Wildcats would like to feature a fairly heavy dose of the run early one, which typically will help to chew up the clock. While the Wildcats' offense suffered big losses, the defense should be much improved this season. The secondary is an area of particular strength, with three starters returning, highlighted by shutdown corner Trevard Lindley. Overall, they've got seven defensive starters back and this should be the Wildcats' best defense in the Rich Brooks era. While Kentucky lost Woodson, Little and three of its top four receivers, Louisville has to replace star QB Brian Brohm. Additionally, the Cardinals are breaking in a new running back and have to replace practically their entire receiving corps. They're even dealing with injuries with some of the remaining receivers. While the Cardinals' won't match last year's offensive production, they are also hoping to be much better defensively with new defensive coordinator Ron English in the fold. Note that English did a great job in his two years as defensive coordinator at Michigan. The Cardinals were favored nine times last season and saw five of those games fall below the total. Kentucky has seen the UNDER go 8-4 the last 12 times it was listed as an underdog. Looking a little deeper into that and we find that the Wildcats have only been underdogs of four points or less three times since 2004. All three of those games produced 52 points or less and they averaged less than 41. As for the Wildcats, they scored just seven, 14 and 24 points in those games. With all the offensive losses, I feel this number is too high. Look for the final score to be lower-scoring than expected. *Main Event

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (85-58 in MLB since June 30)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NY Mets at 1:10 ET. The Mets' bullpen let the team down again last night, allowing the game-tying run in the 8th and the game-winner in the 9th, on a bases-loaded walk. The team's regular closer Billy Wagner is currently on the DL and the Mets have blown 11 of 26 save opportunities since the All-Star break. New York's bullpen has a 5.69 ERA since July 21 and with Pedro on the mound this afternoon (he's averaged about 5 1/2 innings per start in '08), the bullpen will likely be called on again. That's the bad news. However, there is plenty of good news here. First of all, Pedro is more than capable of a good effort but more importantly, the Mets get to face Florida lefty Scott Olsen, who has been in a "free-fall" for quite some time now. Olsen "turned some heads" with a solid 2006 season in which he went 12-10. However, he pitched poorly in 2007 (10-15 with a 5.81 ERA) plus had some off-the-filed issues, as well. Olsen seemed to have put his troubles behind him at the start of '08 though, going 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his first nine starts (team was 8-1). However, things have not gone well since. He's 2-7 with a 4.99 ERA over his last 18 starts, with the Marlins going just 4-14. Olsen won his first start back from the All Star break but is winless since, going 0-4 with a 5.27 ERA in seven starts (team is 0-7). Specifically to this matchup, he's faced the Mets three times in '08 already, allowing 21 hits and 11 ERs in just 15.2 innings, going 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA (team is 0-3). That gives him a career mark vs the Mets of 1-4 with a 4.532 ERA in 11 starts (team is 3-8). More bad news comes Florida's way, as the Mets are a solid 26-16 vs left-handers this year, averaging 4.9 RPG. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Mets.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (45-26 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Padres at 4:05 ET. One can always make a case of going against the Padres in '08 and team ace Jake Peavy has suffered this year because of the team's lack of productivity. San Diego is batting .248 as a team in 2008 (27th of 30 clubs) and only the Nationals are scoring fewer runs this year than the Padres' average of 3.89 per game. Peavy owns a 2.84 ERA on the season but is just 9-9 on the year, with San Diego going only 10-13 in his starts. Peavy's home ERA of 1.54 tops the majors but yet he's just 5-4 at home in 12 starts, where the Padres are only 6-6. Some may remember that Peavy was San Diego's starter against the Rockies in last year's one-game wild card playoff game last Oct 1 at Coors. Peavy was far from sharp in that game (6.1 IP / 10 hits / 6 ERs), as the Rockies won in thrilling fashion, 9-8. This year, Peavy's pitched very well in three starts vs the Rockies (2.70 ERA) but he's got nothing to show for it (he's 0-2 and the teamis 0-3). So why should things be any different today? Maybe they won't but I sure like Peavy in this spot. He's been given an extra day off rest, as he threw 121 pitches in his last start, when the Padres beat the D'backs (with Haren on the mound) 4-2 to open the week (Monday). The Rockies have struggled all year on the road, going 28-43 (minus-$1,047) and they are only 21-35 vs righties away from Coors Field. That includes a 3-10 mark in away day games, where they've averaged a meager 3.7 RPG. Starting for Colorado is lefty Jeff Francis, who is pitching better of late, with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts (he's 1-0 and the team is 3-0). However, he's had a rough season, going 4-8 with a 5.36 ERA in 21 starts (team is 8-13). That includes a 5.26 road ERA in 11 starts, with the Rockies going 4-7. He's never had too much luck vs San Diego either, as his lifetime mark is 5-10 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts (team is 7-10). I'm counting on a great effort from Peavy and the Padres giving him enough support for a win. Las Vegas Insider on the SD Padres.

Good Luck...Larry

PPP / GAVAZZI

2% Colorado--
2%Louisville

2% both unders

ROOT

Chairman - Colorado Buffs
Millionaire - yankees

Ben Burns

Blue Chip

LAD / ARZ Under


Burns 3 game Exec totals report



atl/was under,

colo/san deigo,

sf/cin under

Lang

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SUNDAY

10 Dime Colorado

FREE - Louisville