Troy vs MTennSt

I am starting to get a bit worried over my pick: MTennSt +7. I know Troy is great at home, and of course Wayne Root has to post his pick for taking Troy -6.5. But he did pick Green Bay last night at +5 and that wasn't even close till the onsides kick at the end of the game.

Which premium play service is more reliable from what everyone has observed?

Has anyone ever bet the opposite side to cancel out the bet? Should I stick with MTennST +7 here? I also think this could be a reverse line movement in favor of Troy, which means the books expect Troy to cover. I am pretty sure the public is taking MTennSt for the spread and SU but the line keeps moving up for Troy (from -4 to -7). Three points sure is a big line movement... starting to get worried here.

What to think here??

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Originally Posted by AnotherBadTeaser

Which premium play service is more reliable from what everyone has observed?

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You should look at forum posters Max, RedhottG2, and Luke. They are more consistant than these services.

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Originally Posted by AnotherBadTeaser

Has anyone ever bet the opposite side to cancel out the bet? Should I stick with MTennST +7 here?

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Ive done that may times. No need to bet the game tonight if you dont like it.

::handshake::

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Which premium play service is more reliable from what everyone has observed?

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Redhott sports plays



The answer to your question is :yes I have bet the other side to cancel out a play .I've even done it at halftime because I didnt like the way my team looked.I dont know yet who I'll be on tonight but if you dont feel right about it cancel out the play ,watch the first half and maybe try to bet the halftime line

I'll just gamble tonight and hold on to the play which is just a gut feeling. Maybe I'll get lucky and MTennSt plays great tonight to keep it close or even wins..... or maaaayyyybbbeee not posting.php?mode=reply&f=3&t=5810#

If you want to make some money, just fade Brandon langs picks, that guy is a BUM!!

he will go 0-6 and then put out an obvious 50dime and say hes doing great. I think most of those service sites are scams

Lang has been sucking it up lately as I have noticed most of them do. He lost a 40, and several 20 &15's last week. There is no way he would have had a positive week. The only way he is winning is if he is "chasing" or "doubling down", and how can every week they have a "POY"? Last time I checked there was 52 weeks in a year so if you call a POY that title should be retired for the rest of the season at that sport at least.

I often follow 3-4 guys and when one misses a couple in a row I jump on bc the odds of missing 3 in a row are pretty slim...12.5% to be exact. As I see it there are only 2 options. Winning and losing (push=winner in my book and happen rarely). So you have a 50% chance to win on any given side or total. Statistics shows us 1/2^3=1/8 or 12.5% of not getting a winner on the third try. So should be 87.5% of hitting. Spreadsheets are great at keeping track of this and you can keep track of more guys. I bet if you tracked a lot of these guys they lose more games than they win but they have "winning weeks" none the less bc they double down constantly. Look at some of the bets, 40 dimes, 10000 units, to me a 10000 unit bet would be a $100 bet. I know these guys call a big game but that's how they make their money. How many of these guys do you really think are blowing 10 to 40 to 100+ k on a game that they have no outcome over? I can't do it, not only do I not have the means to do it night in night out, it makes me sick. I've placed 2.5k on the line after some big wins and I almost puked for the next 2 days and I won the bet. I can blow smoke just as good as they can, I just don't have the time to service a website like they do.

Enough with the rambling. Best of luck on your pick but I'm backing Troy and the OVER in this contest.

That being said always go with your gut. I've lost a lot of money by letting people talk me into the other side of the bet. Bottom line if you don't like it, don't take it. These guys throw out picks to make money off of guys like us looking for the edge and more often than not they seem to lose (I've done it before myself). I believe more often than not, at the professional level expecially, the games are rigged and I'm a firm believer there are more professional athletes betting on games of their own in sports than just Pete rose.

Thanks for the advice... I must mention that each bet you make is independent from the last bet. That is .5^3 would be the odds of winning three fair coin flips in a row (.125), but your odds to win the third coin flip do not change to 12.5% because you just won the last two. It is still a coin flip right? Or would it be a conditional probability (maybe i am wrong here?) this is F-ing with my head!

So anyways.... it definitely makes a whole lot of sense what you are saying;people don't have infinite amounts of money to bet after going through a four game losing streak where you are doubling and tripling down your bets to chase losses. I find it odd they always seem to bring in pick after pick with the same old analysis that only talks about previous ATS and O/U stats etc. Each game is independent from the last and obviously any game is a fumble/penalty/int/gd yellow flag away from not covering.

I can take Max and Redhott and luke or whoever has done pretty well so far and has a strong opinion for a game because I am not going to hold it against them if they have a bad day of picks because it was free and they are betting their own money on it instead of lying to people about guaranteed picks and charging a fee for it. I'm just looking for inside info and analysis I can go along with and also question and get feedback for. These cappers don't even make sense half the time and thanks to this forum I can see what they are actually doing. I am glad I haven't ever paid for the picks especially when they tell you to bet big and lose by a mile.....10000 units wtf

Yes each bet is independant but the chances of one of them losing 3 in a row are slim. Occasionally it happens but the chances of you flipping a coin for the third time and gettng the same result (wrong) 3 times in a row is not going to happen very often.uKust saying if they have already missed two in a row then I might bet the third one bc they are "due". Also look at some of the guys that make several picks a day. I do it too and it's fading a way of fading myself. I feel confident I will win at least one of the 3 so maybe have a little loss, win two and have a small gain or hit all three and have a great day. I'd rather spread out my money on several games. Like I said before putting a lot of money on one game freaked me out, but from what I've been told it is the way to win at this "game". I personally know of a couple guys that strictly make a living off of gambling and they might not play but one game a week and they go big on it and it seems like they always win but they have deep pockets to begin with. They have inherited a lot of money or they have played a professional sport in the past. So the money they play with isn't that big of a deal and pocket change for them. Must be nice!!

Re: 10-6-09

Lang

5 DIME Tuesday Trifecta
Tigers
Tigers Over
Mid Tenn St

Comp Troy Over

Looks like Lang took another night to the chin. I would say -6 dimes assuming his comp play was a 1 dimer.

Damn, I def picked the wrong side on this game, wish I would have cancelled it out now. MTennSt had a really bad game though I think it could have been a closer game still idk about 7 points. Ouch.