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Friday 3/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/29/24
March 29, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Friday, March 29, 2024
View Today’s Prime Plays Video
RACE 1
4-GRAZED MY HEART
Degree of confidence: B
• Genuine, consistent, and has winning form over the local lawn.
• Closed with courage but ran out of room in recent turf sprint.
• Stretches out again to her preferred trip; should get up in time.
Others to consider: 2-Control Function; 5-Mahina.
RACE 2
1-UR IN TROUBLE
Degree of confidence: A-
• Wheeled back in six days after finishing far back facing tougher foes.
• Projects to be the controlling speed from the rail in elongated sprint.
• Fastest on figs based on her strong runner-up effort two runs back.
Others to consider: 5-Sugar Fish.
RACE 3
2-DISCO BALL
Degree of confidence: C+
• Tough to count on (two wins, 13 placings) but recent figs are strong.
• Winless in eight starts over local dirt but has hit the board seven times.
• Good tactical speed; projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking journey.
Others to consider: 4-Top Gun Tommy
RACE 4
3-THE WILD GRAZER
Degree of confidence: A-
• Graded stakes placed last year; returns with series of solid workouts.
• Shows excellent form in two starts over this tricky Hillside Turf Course.
• Projects to enjoy her preferred stalking trip, can tag the leaders late.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 5
5-EIGHT CLAP
Degree of confidence: B+
• Wired a maiden claiming field with ease; realistically spotted for repeat.
• Pace scenario looks comfortable, drawn inside but just won from the rail.
• Edge on figures; Berrios opts for him over stable mate Lettheliquortalk.
Others to consider: 6-Autism Puzzle.
RACE 6
2-CITADINO
Degree of confidence: B
• Significant barn switch, nice recent sprint tightener off a layoff.
• Style suggests he should handle two turns; numbers are rising.
• Question mark on grass but the switch to H. Berrios is a positive.
Others to consider: 4-When Heroes Fly; 9-Promissio.
RACE 7
3-STAY IN LINE
Degree of confidence: B-
• Stretches out again and likely will employ pace stalking tactics.
• Excellent recent workout (:59 flat) should have her right on edge.
• Career top speed figure was earned over the local main track.
Others to consider: 4-Sand to Sea.
RACE 8
5-UNCLE TRULY
Degree of confidence: B+
• Raced wide throughout when fourth in a similar spot over local lawn.
• Better draw today; should improve enough to pose a serious threat.
• Uncle Mo colt is lightly raced with plenty of improvement possible.
Others to consider: 2-Bandwagon; 8-Moonlit Sonata; 6-El Rey Rey.
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Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis
March 29, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 9-race card with the 0.20 4 Pick starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 6 (8:25 PM PST)
1-Sherwood (4-1)-Has trouble finishing off miles but did battle in last and that effort was better than the line looks. Fits well with this bunch and James Kennedy should work a nice ground saving journey.
3-Gorgeous For Real (8-1)-Seems to find ways to fall short but drops back to the level of its last win which came 2 back. Is worth a long look at the morning line price.
5-Daniel's Son (2-1)-Jacob Cutting's choice drops to a soft spot. Probably won't offer any value but should be tough to down if close to the leaders turning for the wire.
Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)
2-Cenalta Firedragon (4-1)-Wasn't good enough to win but deserves respect with a good try from the 7-hole. Has the speed to win and Luke Plano can work a smooth trip with this post draw.
5-Frewil Dakota Sven (3-1)-Gets post relief and James Kennedy is between the pipes tonight. Needs a trip and well-timed move to take a picture and this pilot could make that happen.
6-Sweet Timber (10-1)-Price shot has been a bridesmaid in the last 2 starts. Has the gate speed to get the top off the gate. If that happens and Jim Lackey gets there without burning much gas good things could happen at a juicy price.
Race 8 (9:05 PMPST)
2-Gee Wilikers (2-1)-Tried to wire the field last week and faded. The same game plan will probably be in Cutting's pocket but may not have to work as hard to get the top. That difference could be enough to cash the top check.
3-Albergo Hanover (5-1)-Finished right behind the one above and also faded down the lane. That was the 1st race at this level after a sick scratch. Will give the benefit of the doubt it needed the start and will be sharper this time.
Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)
1-Some Playa (4-1)-Has raced well against better in 2 of the last 3 races and Plano can get an efficient trip with this post draw. Should be forwardly placed throughout and like the one below is a logical choice at a short price.
2-Go Viral (8/5)-Raced wide well past the 1/4 pole and working hard to get the top didn't help. Stayed inside and couldn't really shake free down the lane. The beaten chalk finished in a DH for 3rd place. Faces easier and has no excuse for not being a main player.
0.20 Pick 4
1,3,5/2,5,6/2,3/1,2
Total Bet =$7.20
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Frank Carulli: Laurel Bet $100, Get $20 | March 29
March 29, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
LAUREL PARK BET $100, GET $20
Friday, March 29
March Madness isn’t over yet. Not on the basketball court or on the racetrack with 1/ST Technology’s “Bet $100, Get $20” promotion. Get in on the action by wagering $100 on the Laurel Park races this Friday, March 29, and you get a $20 bonus added to your account. Bet to win, bet exactas, be Pick 3’s, bet whatever suits you best. Here’s my picks and wagering strategy for the 10-race card that goes postward at 12:25 EST:
LRL Race 1 (12:25 p.m. EST) -- DASHING D’ARTAGNAN made a winning-type move at this distance with first-time Lasix but settled for second to razor sharp El de Larry (3-8, $56k) three starts back. He was compromised by a slow pace on the class hike to this level but should get ample pace-flow today to launch a contending rally at a good price. BRYSON’S OPTION found Lasix of little help, back-pedaling in a pair of higher-priced route races after his maiden score at 1-1/16 miles. But he has speed, faced eventual stakes-winning stablemate Speedyness two starts ago, then finished behind two next-out winners (with 70+ Beyer speed figures) in a $40,000 claimer.
1/ST Bets on Races 1 and 2
$5 daily doubles: 7-2, 7-4, 8-2, 8-4
LRL Race 2 (12:56 p.m. EST) -- CLAW finished second the last time he ran 5-1/2F under these conditions, leading between calls in late stretch before hard-hitting Savoy (10-35, $247k) prevailed in a triple key race. (Savoy won off the claim for $8,000 for the same barn). He was no match for $318k earner Up Against It in two follow-up starts at 6F, but he’s a good fit in this spot with blinkers on and a 5-pound apprentice aboard. SUNRISE JOURNEY is the one to beat for trainer David Jacobson, who stands 5-for-17 this year with horses who run for a 50-percent claiming tag drop. But 15 of those 17 runners were dismissed at 7-2 odds or less, so he offers little value.
1/ST Bets on Race 2
$15 win and place: #2 CLAW
LRL Race 9 (4:43 p.m. EST) -- WHATSYOURBIGIDEA handled her first ‘lead’ role in strong fashion last out at 7F. She sped clear, dug in when challenged at the 3/16th pole and finished third behind the two favorites, including Too Many Kisses, who came back to win in the $75,000 Conniver Stakes. She broke her maiden from off-the-pace at 5-1/2F and hails from the red-hot Kieron Magee barn.
1/ST Bets on Race 9
$26 win: #1 WHATSYOURBIGIDEA
LRL Race 10 (5:05 p.m. EST) -- Penn National invader BRIT’S CANDYMAN succumbed to a rapid pace and three-way duel in a three-peat attempt at 6F. There’s plenty of speed in this race, too, but the cutback to 5-1/2F suits him well. If the pace falls apart, AEQUOR is a late-running price play to consider if he fires his best shot off a five-month layoff, a live possibility considering his :36 bullet workout to get ready. ADDY’S LADDY T N T projects an ideal trip and continues to outrun his odds, as well, making him a solid complement on gimmick wager tickets.
1/ST Bets on Race 10
$4 exacta box: 2-5-6
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Santa Anita - Race #8
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #1 Gold Foot |
He might be a slight reach, but he's quick enough to have an early impact in a race where the tactical types seem happy to settle. Could see him being right up on the splits from the rail draw. |
| #9 Formidable Man |
He has a couple dull lines on his page from stakes tries, but he woke up last out when getting in with similar and should find a good spot to get first jump from out here. |
| #3 Better Than Gold |
He couldn't hang with Grade III company on the Derby Trail after the graduation run, but he's back in a more reasonable spot to try turf today. His overall form isn't totally convincing, but it's worth noting he's caught Nysos in both career losses -- and there is nobody anywhere close to that drawn in this group today. |
| Race Summary |
Fun to see some of these horses try to find a home on the turf after they showed some talent and were understandably given a shot on the Derby Trail. Gold Foot should be a solid price on the rise as he meets those aforementioned runners, and I think he'll be in a good spot right up on the action. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #10 Bound to Succeed |
He was never all that involved in the debut run when he folded up quickly after trying to chase early, but there is some upside while dropping in for a tag with a steady worktab since that one. Could get a nice trip in a race without a ton of serious pace. |
| #4 When Heroes Fly |
He's definitely the one to beat off a couple good tries against similar, and he's likely in line for another great trip up close to the speed. Risk vs. reward prop may not be there on the tote board in a race where I'm not sure his ceiling is that much higher than some of the others. He's a logical place to hang your hat. |
| #7 Wrong Direction |
He didn't show much in the debut, but he at least finished with some mild interest and got past a couple of them late. Could see him moving forward today after turning in a couple works since the last trip to post. |
| Race Summary |
Bound to Succeed might be just quick enough to find a good spot from this draw, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him track the pace and stick around better today with the debut under his belt. #9 Promissio makes sense on the deeper tickets. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #5 Tizzy Twister |
There are enough at least semi-committed forward players lined up in this short field to think the pace may be honest, and this one has some ability to get past horses. Dirt experience gives her the edge. |
| #6 Abhita |
She's probably a stronger finisher overall than the top choice, but her work has come almost exclusively on the turf, and she's no sure thing to pick up with as much punch on the main track. Her race if the form transfers. |
| #1 La Deuxieme Etiole |
It has been some time since she turned in a really good effort, but she turned in a couple decent lines over this footing around this time last year. Second off the break chance. |
| Race Summary |
Tizzy Twister and Abhita seem like the right two for me in here, but the former should be a better price with some convincing main-track form on the page. |
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Laurel Park - Race #3
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #7 NO WALK INTHE PARK (9-5) |
Looks best of a bad bunch, can upgrade recent runner-up finishes. |
| #8 MAXIMUM EMILY (2-1) |
Hard ridden on turn at Aqueduct, no factor against mostly class droppers. |
| #4 PRETTY COAST (10-1) |
Has speed, can carry it farther in this field in her seasonal debut. |
| Race Summary |
NO WALK INTHE PARK finished second in 3 of her last 5 sprint attempts, one at this level and distance. She should be able to handle this field with a duplicate performance. Bet to win and place and play 7-4 and 7-8 exactas. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #2 VAGABOND SHOES (7-2) |
Can make good enough use of his speed to handle class rise for new connections. |
| #7 ALWAYS GAMBLING (10-1) |
Good try in first start since 2022, move forward makes him dangerous. |
| #6 SWIFTY DEVIL (3-1) |
Ran second from on and off the pace at 6F recently but is 0-for-9 at Laurel. |
| Race Summary |
VAGABOND SHOES backed off a duel, then re-rallied to win in a 6F sprint on Turfway Park’s synthetic track. He should be the target today off the claim, shedding 7 pounds as the light weight in the field. Bet to win and place. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #6 GET SET (9-5) |
Ready, get set, ‘Go’ for the 7-year-old to reach a quarter million in earnings. |
| #2 SUPREME LAW (8-5) |
Versatile, consistent and an allowance winner at this distance. |
| #7 CHARGE TO VICTORY (20-1) |
Tries to recapture 2023 form in third start this year. |
| Race Summary |
GET SET saved ground and finished third, 2 lengths behind odds-on choice No Easy Days, who was winning for the third consecutive time. He’s 4-for-39 overall and winless in seven starts at the distance but rates the edge nonetheless. Bet to win and place. |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers
PURCHASE
| Golden Hour Wagers - Race 2 |
Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 |
| Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 4:24P |
| GG - R6 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
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Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DRIVER'S ED is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DRIVER'S ED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ELCONDOR: Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LUCKY LAD: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equi base Class Rating at the distance/surface. |
5 |
DRIVER'S ED |
3/1 |
4/1 |
3 |
ELCONDOR |
12/1 |
6/1 |
1 |
LUCKY LAD |
9/5 |
7/1 |
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
5 |
DRIVER'S ED |
5 |
3/1 |
Front-runner |
88 |
89 |
100.6 |
85.8 |
80.8 |
3 |
ELCONDOR |
3 |
12/1 |
Front-runner |
86 |
89 |
94.6 |
79.2 |
75.2 |
4 |
NUESTRO ENGREIDO |
4 |
5/1 |
Front-runner |
85 |
81 |
75.6 |
76.0 |
67.5 |
1 |
LUCKY LAD |
1 |
9/5 |
Front-runner |
100 |
93 |
74.4 |
78.2 |
71.7 |
7 |
JERSEY BABE |
7 |
8/1 |
Front-runner |
85 |
83 |
73.6 |
79.8 |
66.8 |
2 |
DUPLICATION |
2 |
6/1 |
Alternator/Stalker |
85 |
84 |
63.2 |
78.3 |
71.3 |
6 |
EDDIE CROSSWIRE |
6 |
4/1 |
Alternator/Non-contender |
80 |
79 |
70.0 |
76.8 |
65.3 |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington ParkPURCHASE
| Remington Park - Race 4 |
WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) (.50 Cent Minimum) |
| Maiden • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 67 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 7:21P |
| QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RAINBOW OF DIAMONDS: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). |
8 |
RAINBOW OF DIAMONDS |
5/1 |
3/1 |
2 |
B FLYIN |
5/2 |
9/1 |
1 |
CORONA COMING THRU |
12/1 |
9/1 |
3 |
ELEGANT TRAIN B |
3/1 |
10/1 |
9 |
RR LEWS ON FIRE |
12/1 |
10/1 |
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
4 |
BV HOPE IS HERE |
4 |
8/1 |
Slow |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5 |
A GOOD REASON TO RUN |
5 |
10/1 |
Average/Trouble-prone |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6 |
KLASSY CARTEL |
6 |
6/1 |
Slow |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate FieldsPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 71
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 7 SIX HOT GRANDS 10/1
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# 5 BROTHER O' BRIEN 3/1
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# 3 WE CAN 8/5
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SIX HOT GRANDS has a respectable shot to take this race and could score at a price in here. Has strong front speed and ought to fare solidly against this group. Is a definite contender - given the 62 speed figure from his most recent race. Solid profits have been scored by gamblers using this jockey and handler tandem recently. BROTHER O' BRIEN - Exhibits the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 59 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this group of horses. No strangers to the winner's circle, McCanna and Alvarado will probably have this gelding breaking away from the field. WE CAN - Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (65 average) at today's distance and surface recently. His 57 average has this gelding with among the top Equibase Speed Figs in here.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Charles Town - Race #7 - Post: 10:02pm - Allowance - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,400 Class Rating: 91
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#1 SWEET SHUGS (ML=6/1)
#6 SING A LULLABYE (ML=8/5)
SWEET SHUGS - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's contest is a shorter trip and should enhance her chances. Batista's agent must relish anytime Ginter gives them a mount; win percent together is outstanding. Have to like the way Ginter has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. Breaking from the inside, this horse should have a distinct advantage. Her early pace setting style should serve her well in this short race of 4 1/2 furlongs. SING A LULLABYE - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this jockey/trainer combination. This horse absolutely loves this track. All her wins have been here at Charles Town. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough outings since the vacation and should be fit. This thoroughbred loves the track here at Charles Town. The recent speed fig of 92 is the top last race figure in the bunch.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MAGGIE'S GIRL (ML=7/5), #3 CEDAR'S WISH (ML=8/1),
MAGGIE'S GIRL - No accomplishments for this racer in a short distance race over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a thorny spot I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended layoff and no drop in level of competition. CEDAR'S WISH - Don't believe this vulnerable equine will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed rating was common when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
#1 SWEET SHUGS is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Box [1,6] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
Skip |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
Skip |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway ParkPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 74
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 11 ANA 5/1
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# 13 OH POLLYANNA 8/1
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# 1 STUPENDOUS 12/1
|
ANA is the top wager in this race. Could best this group of animals based on the speed rating - 69 - of her last outing. Earning some nice paychecks in dirt route contests. OH POLLYANNA - Must be given a shot here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Laurel - Race #10 - Post: 5:11pm - SO - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 88
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#6 BRIT'S CANDYMAN (ML=8/1)
#1 GUAPO AGAIN (ARG) (ML=8/1)
#2 ADDY'S LADDY T N T (ML=5/2)
#4 ARISTOCRATIC (ML=3/1)
BRIT'S CANDYMAN - I have to like this gelding's likelihood of winning at the shorter distance. The March 1st race at Penn National was at a class level of (94). Dropping down in class ranks significantly, so he should be in a good position. GUAPO AGAIN (ARG) - The return on investment when Mena and Sanchez-Salomon partner up is outstanding. This speed freak is cutting back in distance today. Should promote his winning probability. A horse coming back this quickly after a nice effort is a good sign. ADDY'S LADDY T N T - Was in a non-classified race race at Laurel last race out. That race had a class figure of 95 and he is moving down right here in this race. A certain win candidate. ARISTOCRATIC - This front runner should benefit from today's shorter distance. This gelding seems to run pretty good after a layoff. Just view his recent speed rating, 88. That one fits well in this field. Recent Equibase speed figs show strong pattern of improvement.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 COMMANDING GENERAL (ML=2/1), #5 AEQUOR (ML=6/1),
COMMANDING GENERAL - Didn't come through as the chalk the last two times. Probably won't gain a victory today either. Going to have a difficult go of it with all the other early lick in this race. Don't think this racer will make an impact in today's race. That last fig was substandard when compared with today's class figure. AEQUOR - Hard to recommend any animal with lessening speed figures of 81/77/57. Difficult to invest in at 6/1 odds after the last two outings.
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BRIT'S CANDYMAN - Racing pattern would suggest this horse is in good condition for today's race. Should do well in this race.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
#6 BRIT'S CANDYMAN is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Box [1,6] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
None |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
Pass |
