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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
CFL | Sep 23, 2017
Montreal vs. Toronto
Montreal+7½ -130
*PCG RAW NUMBERS are 812-656 +154.66 units for the 2017 season.
CFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Road dogs of +4 to +13 and Home dogs between -1 and +2 that finished last season at least 2 games below .500 are 88-44-4 ATS.
Active to Play on the Tiger Cats and Alouettes this week!
OTHER TEAM TRENDS:
The Argonauts are 1-17 ATS (-10.19 ppg) since Aug 20, 2010 at home after a game at home
The Argonauts are 12-32-1 ATS (-7.91 ppg) since Nov 18, 2007 as a home favorite
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PURE LOCK
Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 9-23-17
Washington -10 1/2
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Otto Sports
UNLV at Ohio St
Over 64.5
Eliminate for a second Ohio State's dismal offensive showing vs. Oklahoma in which the Buckeyes posted only 350 total yards and 16 points. Instead, turn your attention to Week 1 in which the Buckeyes rolled up nearly 600 yards and 49 points against Indiana. And last week as well as OSU hung 586 yards on only 69 plays in its win over Army. Bettors should feel confident moving forward that Ohio State's offense is only going to get better as first-year OC Kevin Wilson and Urban Meyer adjust to one another. In the meantime, this is still a top-tier offense, especially when facing lower-tier competition which is exactly what they'll see this weekend in UNLV.
The Rebels were not an especially strong defensive team a season ago even though the schedule came up very light in terms of opposing offenses. UNLV faced only three teams in the top 50 in total offense and in those three games it allowed 50 ppg. This season's numbers look tolerable (5.31 ypp allowed) but once again, the competition (Howard and Idaho) was very weak.
Offensively, UNLV head coach Tony Sanchez stated that while run-first, clock churning drives are ideal, they aren't likely to occur against the Buckeyes’ stout stop unit. Meaning, in order for UNLV to put points on the board, they'll need to do so via the big play.
“We know we’ve been a pretty successful run football team, and that’s who we are and that’s kind of how we’ve built ourselves,” Sanchez said, “but we’ve got a talented receiving corps, and if you’re going to have an opportunity in a game like this, you’re going to have to stretch the field. You’re not just going to be able to sit there, run the ball 50 times right at a front like that. They’re pretty stout up there.”
Easier said than done against a very formidable defense on the road but UNLV's offense has a lot of potential. Quarterback Armani Rogers gives the offense a run-pass dynamic it didn't have with last year's trio of sub-par signal callers. And there are weapons in both the backfield and at wide receiver. Despite a litany of key injuries and zero production from the QB position, UNLV still averaged a respectable 5.86 ypp last year in MWC play. And while this year's competition has been ultra-weak, it's a positive sign the Rebels averaged over 8 yards per play in both games. Ohio State’s got the plenty of potential to hang 50+ in this one which means a score or two from a very offensively improved underdog has this one going over the total.
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Power Sports
Air Force +3.5
The AFA was a nice winner for me last Saturday afternoon as they never trailed by more than the spread (23.5 points), covering easily at "The Big House." While ultimately falling short has to be a little disappointing (lost 29-13), it's not like anyone (myself included) gave them much of a shot at beating Michigan outright. It's a different story this week, however, as they return to Colorado Springs for the Mt West opener against division favorite San Diego State. Off B2B upsets, the Aztecs are riding high right now, but this time around I think they are the ones ripe to be upset.
Maybe San Diego State should be in the Pac 12 and not the Mountain West? In the last two weeks, they've beaten Arizona State and then Stanford, the latter as eight-point home dogs. The Aztecs are now 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Pac 12 teams the L2 seasons. However, Saturday night's upset comes w/ a slight caveat in that there was a darkness delay that seemed to adversly affect the road team. SDSU threw the GW TD pass in the final minute, after the delay, and it should also be noted a +3 turnover margin really helped them in pulling the upset. As impressive as the win and the Aztecs defense was, I envision they'll struggle to contain the AFA rushing attack here, which averages over 320 YPG (168 vs. Michigan).
SDSU has certainly had Air Force's number, beating them six straigh times including a win in the '15 MWC Championship Game. But half of those wins have come by a field goal or less. They did not meet last season. As I discussed in LW's analysis, the Flyboys don't have a ton of returning starters (only 1 on defense!), but their a system-based team, so that doesn't matter as much. Last week's loss actually snapped a seven-game win streak for Troy Calhoun's team, but they are still 7-2 ATS their last nine times being an underdog. They're also 12-1 SU L13 home games, 9-4 ATS.
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ALEX SMART
Army +2½
Army works on ball control via a ground heavy attack. The Cadets average 364.7 ypd via the rush this season. Meanwhile, the Green Wave despite of knowing what to expect are just 6-49 SU in their L/55 games when they allow 200 or more yards rushing including a recent loss to Navy 23-21.
With that said, I'm betting on Army piling up at least 200 yards plus, and for Tulane to fail here in a letdown spot after playing Oklahoma last week while allowing the Sooners to score 42 straight points in a lopsided 56-14 home loss.
TULANE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games after a loss by 28 or more points.
CFB Home favorites like Tulane - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after a loss by 17 or more points are just 25-58 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.
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CAPPERS CLUB
Purdue +10
The Purdue Boilermakers have been one of the biggest surprises in football, and with the line moving to +10 I like the value in this game.
The Boilermakers come into this game with a 2-1 record, and their only loss came against the Louisville Cardinals, and that was only by seven points.
The Wolverines offense is no where near as good as the Cardinals, and if the Boilermakers could hold them 35 points, I think they will really be able to slow down the Wolverines in this game.
Some trends to note. Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Boilermakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
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SCOTT SPREITZER
Arkansas State +6
SMU put 36 points on the board against TCU last time out, but allowed 56. The Mustangs have allowed TCU and North Texas to complete 56 of 77, 73% of their passes, for 789 yards, with 7 TDs and just 2 INTs. The porous pass defense plays right into Arkansas State's strength, the passing game led by QB Justice Hansen. The ASU signal caller has completed 71% of his passes on the season, averaging over 385 yards per game with 8 TDs and only 2 INTs. And while Arkansas State was cruising to an easy 45-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, SMU was suffering the tough emotional and physical loss to TCU. SMU's defense ranks 117th against the pass and 104th in total yards allowed per game. We had Arkansas State and cashed when they covered at Nebraska in their season opener.
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Dave Cokin
UMass +28
I won’t try to make much of a case for Massachusetts. The Minuteman are not good, although they might not be as horrible as most think. I have them at #112 out of 130 in my FBS power ratings. Teams outside the top 100 are capable of being blown out at any time, and in fact, the betting line is almost exactly where it should be based on those power ratings.
But Tennessee is the ultimate red flag entry right now. The Volunteers are off a demoralizing final play of the game Hail Mary loss to Florida. It’s never easy to put those in the rear view mirror, and it’s not like the prospect of hosting little UMass is likely to rev up the Tennessee engines.
There’s more. I’ve got good info that there’s a load of conflict taking place off the field for the Volunteers, as members of the coaching staff are not exactly seeing eye to eye these days. That’s not a good thing and I’ve heard, again via respected sources, that the “wheels might be about to come off”.
I felt Butch Jones was on the hot seat coming into this season and the way the Vols lost to the Gators sure didn’t help the coach’s cause. The Georgia game next week is now massive as far as this season is concerned for Tennessee.
Under the circumstances, focus could be a real issue for the Volunteers this weekend. Tennessee figures to dispatch UMass with relative ease, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to cover this enormous line. Getting four TD’s with Massachusetts is the way I’d play this one.
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Harry Bondi
WAKE FOREST -4
We used Wake Forest two weeks ago and cashed a ticket in a blowout win over B.C. In fact, over the last two weeks, the Deacons have outscored opponents 80-20 and covered the spread by an alarming 45 points! App State has covered just five of its last 19 at home and and five of its last 15 as an underdog. Lay the road chalk.
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Robert Ferringo
Arkansas +2.5
I don't think that Arkansas is going to miss out on a chance to pull a key SEC upset here. Bret Bielema has lost to A&M five straight years, including a 21-point rout last season after back-to-back overtime heartbreakers in 2014 and 2015. Well, it is time for the Razorbacks to snap the streak. This A&M team has issues. Kevin Sumlin has fans and regents openly campaigning for his firing. The Aggies still have that unreal choke against UCLA hanging over them. They were also unimpressive in a 10-point win over Nicholls State and the Aggies were actually down 21-14 at halftime last week against Louisiana-Lafayette. Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare for this game and lick its wounds after falling to TCU. But that 28-7 loss was a bit misleading, as it was 14-7 with less than three minutes left to play and Arkansas had two missed field goals. I think Arkansas is extremely motivated in this game and I think that they are more focused than the Aggies. I like the Razorbacks to get this win here.
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Raphael Esparza
South Carolina -8.5
South Carolina is coming off a horrible home loss to the Kentucky Wildcats last Saturday 23-13, and we should see a very mad Gamecocks team Saturday afternoon. Both teams come to Williams-Brice Stadium 2-1, and with the Gamecocks getting back-to-back home games I don't see them losing 2-straight home games. LA Tech beat Western Kentucky on the road last weekend 23-22, but the Bulldogs will struggle with the Gamecocks on Saturday. South Carolina scored only 13 points against the Wildcats defense last weekend but scored an average of 33 ppg before that Kentucky game, and Saturday I see a big offensive numbers coming out of the Gamecocks. Louisiana Tech is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games, and the Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS following a ATS loss.
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Jeff Allen
Colorado +11
Washington has dominated the series of late but Colorado played the Huskies tough in last year's Pac-12 championship game. In fact, it was 14-7 at the half with the Buffs getting the kickoffs before two second-half picks opened the floodgates. Both 3-0s are meaningless as each team opened the year with cupcakes but the Buffalo run defense is especially tough and new QB Montez does not make mistakes or turn the ball over like his predecessor Lifau. Colorado is 6-3 L9 as a home dog and the program as a whole is still on the upswing.
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Dennis Macklin
Wake Forest -5
Wake has been almost perfect in its first three wins that came but an aggregate score of 141-27. They've dominated their three opponents by better than 188 ypg. Going into last week, App State had been on a 28-6 straight up run with three of the losses coming to Georgia, Miami, and Tennessee. Last week we saw the big reason for concern as the Mounties (-22.5) were outgained by the lowly Texas State and had to stop the Bobcats on the final play of the game to preserve a 23-13 win. Wake is 7-1 ATS with suitcase last eight while App State is just 1-9 ATS in its L10. These schools are separated by just 92 miles so there should be a pretty good contingent of Deac fans on hand to support these white hot Deacons.
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Harry Bondi
WYOMING -7
The Cowboys and QB Josh Allen came into the season with high aspirations, but have struggled to a 1-2 record, with the losses coming in blowout fashion to Iowa and Oregon. So, with the season on the line, expect a huge effort here today from Wyoming in a major step down game. Hawaii is just 20-41 the last 10 years when playing away from home and just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games, while Wyoming has gone 10-6 ATS in conference play during that same time period. The island boys will also struggle mightily here as they play a game way out of their element at more than 3,000 feet above sea level in Laramie.
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Jesse Schule
Mississippi St +7
The Georgia Bulldogs are asked to cover seven points at home versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs this week. It could be hard for Georgia to cover here with a backup quarterback and only one of their top two running backs healthy. Sony Michel didn't play last week, and his status for this game is unclear. What is clear is that Mississippi State shut down the high powered rushing attack of LSU last week, and if they can slow Georgia's running game, this should be close.
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Doc's Sports
UCLA +7½
Jim Mora is a very overrated coach but taking him aside UCLA may have better talent than that of the Cardinal. Stanford is coming off back-to-back losses including last Saturday night at San Diego State, a team from a Group of Five conference. I just do not believe they will be able to run a desperate Bruin team out of the building. Stanford is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. 68% of the money is coming in on the Bruins as the spread in this game continues to drop. Doc’s Sports nailed both of their top plays in football last week including a BLOWOUT Nonconference Game of the Year winner behind Wisconsin destroying BYU.
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
Albuquerque - Race 2
Second Half Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
Claiming $6,250 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $9,600 • Post: 6:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 1, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * NORTHERN IOWA: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top thre e in TrackMaster Power Rating. LUCKY DOES IT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. AUSSIE ROCKS (GB): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMast er Power Rating.
1
NORTHERN IOWA
8/1
7/2
8
LUCKY DOES IT
4/1
6/1
12
AUSSIE ROCKS (GB)
3/1
6/1
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #9 - BELMONT PARK - 5:45 PM EASTERN POST
The Kelso Handicap
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $300,000.00 PURSE
#5 SHARP AZTECA
#4 DIVINING ROD
#2 TOMMY MACHO
#1 TOM'S READY
This race honors the career of Kelso, who is considered to be among the best racehorses in history. In the list of the top 100 U.S. thoroughbred champions of the 20th Century by The Blood-Horse magazine, Kelso ranks 4th, behind only Man o' War (1st), Secretariat (2nd) and Citation (3rd). In his long career, Kelso defeated many leading Thorougbred racehorses including Carry Back, Gun Bow, Bald Eagle, Tompion, Never Bend, Beau Purple, Quadrangle, Roman Brother, Crimson Satan, Jaipur, Ridan and Pia Star, as well as other top thoroughbreds, often conceding weight under handicap conditions. In doing so, Kelso beat more champions and Hall of Fame horses than any other thoroughbred racehorse in the 20th Century. Here in the 36th running of this Grade Stakes Test, #5 SHARP AZTECA is the overall speed leader in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, including "POWER RUN WINS" in both his last, as well as in his 4th race back. Jockey Paco Lopez and Trainer Jorge Navarro send him "postward" for the 'Saturday Feature' ... they've hit the board with 77% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #4 DIVINING ROD takes a slight class drop (-1), is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in four of his last five outings, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 2nd race back.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 3.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11400 Class Rating: 0
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 6 BEST IN SPIRIT 6/1
# 4 MAIDEN VOYAGE 15/1
# 5 SASSY CANDY 10/1
BEST IN SPIRIT is the best bet in this race. Likely to see a much stronger attempt with the drop. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is sound for this animal. MAIDEN VOYAGE - Will almost certainly go to the front end and should never look back. Expect a much stronger outing with the drop. SASSY CANDY - Look for this horse to be right there at the finish versus these horses.
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
Delaware Park - Race 2
Daily Double (Races 2-3) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4, 50-cent min.)
Claiming $10,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 1:45P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 23, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 23, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 23, 2017 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $8,500, ALLOWED 3 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR WAIVER CLAIMING $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES.).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * BATTERY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. COLONY STRIKE: Horse has run a Good Race within the l ast 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WORLD CHANGER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BAYCHIMO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4
BATTERY
7/2
9/2
6
COLONY STRIKE
5/2
5/1
5
WORLD CHANGER
6/1
8/1
3
BAYCHIMO
9/5
10/1
