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I got 1.5u on QJ at -120.
I don't think Evans is going to be able to hurt Rampage with his boxing, while Rampage may very well knock Evans straight the fuck out. Also, Evans won't be able to run a train on Rampage like he did to Silva for 2 rounds. Rampage's wrestling is too good. He doesn't use it much, but he'll be able to defend the takedown.
My only concern on Rampage's side is ring rust.
I like Rampage also .
after seeing what Lyoto Machida did to Evans, barring total lack of conditioning and Rampage being unable to make the weight cut(since he had to put a bunch on to play BA Baraccus) I don't see much of a problem for him. Evans has totally abandoned his sloppy boxing and gone back to his bread and butter. Problem is that was Rampage's bread and butter before he got into MMA. Not even Hendo gave Rampage much of a problem with wrestling, I don't see Evans having a chance at it. I'll be putting My money on Rampage.
NOG opens about where we figured guys. A little higher than I thought but not too much
Not gonna touch Nog at that price.
When's everyone think Forrest starts holding value?
What's everyone think about Leben VS Simpson?
Aaron proved in the Lawlor fight that he has a lot of holes in his striking . . . but he also proved that he has a pretty excellent chin. Leben might be able to put him out if they get into a stand up war.
Simpson's wrestling will obviously be much better and he may be able to control Leben and get a decision, but I think that at +285 Leben may be worth a small play.
I wouldn't have thought about picking Leben before his last fight, but he showed he's willing to do what it takes to win and not just go out and brawl.
He's a much more experienced fighter than Simpson, and seems like quite a bet at +285. I mean there's a good chance he gets taken down and either controlled or has his guard passed and choked out again, but the line seems off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
I thought this line would be -150 so theres already value there imo .I dont think Forrest wins though
I agree. Leben seemed like a rejuvenated fighter in his fight with Jay Silva. I went ahead and dropped .5u on him.
I like Nog at that a lot. I think he slaughters Forrest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
I think Simpson should win but -340 is just nuts imo. Theres no way this line should be that high
Im on Nog like flys on shit.
I at first put a little something on Cain.Quote:
Originally Posted by IWS Zak
Then I dropped, I think, 1.25u on Nog once his line hit -140. Now that he's actually the underdog at a couple of books, I'm thinking of putting a little more on him so that I'll at least make a full unit if he wins.
^^big nog or lil nog?
Im talking about lil nog.
Oh, my bad, I wasn't thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by IWS Zak
Lil Nog. . .
I hope Forrest wrecks his shit.
Do you think that will happen?Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
No, not really. But if the same Forrest who fought Rampage shows up, I think he could win a decision.Quote:
Originally Posted by IWS Zak
I'm pretty sure there's only one incarnation of Forrest, just as there is no old or new Vitor. He's just Vitor.
Forrest gets his shit pushed in at 114.
Yeah, but you know fighters have their good days and their bad days. Also, some fighters do change over time, either getting better or getting worse as they go, and often significantly transforming their skill sets, like wrestlers becoming strikers and strikers getting good on the ground.Quote:
Originally Posted by zY|
Just like he was supposed to at 86 and 76, presumably. . .Quote:
Originally Posted by IWS Zak
Ill admit, I didnt think Griffin would win either of those fights.
I see Griffin a lot like I see Serra. He's a dog to a lot of guys and rightfully so, but he has a special something where he can beat just about anyone on any given night. In that sense, he's a wildcard and hard to bet against.Quote:
Originally Posted by IWS Zak
Yeah but he hasn't really gotten any better. His last fight with Tito, same old Forrest.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPX
He beat Rampage because it was a good matchup for him, considering Rampage was just trying to land the home run the whole fight. He fought a smart strategy and beat Rampage's legs down and kept him at bay. Good day, bad day...it is what it is.
I get that you want to believe he can win and that's fine, but how is he gonna win? Outwork Nog? Doesn't seem likely to me. Just because Forrest won two fights he was supposed to lose doesn't mean he will win this one. He was supposed to lose to Anderson too and lose he did, in a more dominant fashion than anyone could have possibly imagined.
I never said he WOULD win . . . I said he COULD win. And it's not that far out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by zY|
Who has Lil Nog even really beat since getting knocked out by Sokoudjou? Matyushenko and Cane?
If you want to bet on Nog then you can feel free to do so--in fact, since you're so confident I'll have some questions for you if you have not done so by fight night--but at -200 or worse, I won't touch it.
LOL relax.
I'm very relaxed.
I'm just saying that if you are all like "how can Forrest win this fight? doesn't seem likely to me" then -215 sounds like pretty good odds.
They are
How much you got on this one?Quote:
Originally Posted by zY|
None yet.
Lil Nog pushing -260 at some places,this is ust nuts imo.NOG might be good but not this good .If this keeps climbing I'm going to end up on Forrest
Dan Miller-Bisping is going to be on this card now also I just read
Bets I am considering: Rampage, Griffin, Bisping, Escudero, Guillard, and Cane.
Nope.Quote:
Originally Posted by LudoCain
Fixed it ::handshake::
I wonder if the producers were like, "Go Rampage! FUCK THAT SHIT UP!"
It seems like at least once every season a door gets broken, although I could be wrong, I missed like the last 4 seasons before the heavyweights.