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Saturday 3/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Coast-to-Coast Pick 5: Siegel & Nicoletti Picks | 3/16
March 16, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Saturday’s 1/ST Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 selections are in. The $1 minimum wager has a low 15% takeout and we’ve got the selections of veteran local handicappers Ron Nicoletti at GP and Jeff Siegel at SA.
Get 10X Wager Rewards Points when you bet the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.
Gulfstream Park Race 10
#1 Cape Trafalgar
#5 Arthur’s Ride
#3 Big Martini
Santa Anita Race 5
#8 Can’t Sleep
#3 Quick Kate
#7 The Shushala
Santa Anita Race 6
#6 Matanzas Creek
#4 Hey Brother
Gulfstream Park Race 12
#6 Saint in the City (longshot play of day)
#1 Better Bet
#4 Fly Right
Santa Anita Race 7
#3 American Glory
#2 Bartholdy
#5 Indespensible
#6 Let Seamus Go
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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/16/24
March 16, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Saturday, March 16, 2024
RACE 1
2-FORTY NINER GOLD
Degree of confidence: C+
• Good debut speed before weakening when third facing similar.
• Has a right to be fitter and stronger in his second career outing.
• Barn has solid stats with the second time starter angle.
Others to consider: 1-Billbernjoejohnick; 5-Antibes.
RACE 2
1-SWEET MILLIE
Degree of confidence: B
• Returned off a long layoff to crush soft maidens up north.
• Moving way up in class but catches a very modest group.
• Fits on speed figures and has more upside than the others.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 3
4-LORD BULLINGDON
Degree of confidence: B+
• Won the Eddie Logan Stakes smartly over course and distance.
• Freshened since late December, shows solid recent workouts.
• Lack of pace may reduce race to a quarter mile dash for home.
Others to consider: 5-Island Cruiser.
RACE 4
5-QUICK BROWN FOX
Degree of confidence: A
• Debuting Justify filly from the multiple Grade-1 winner Bast.
• Strong, athletic, lengthy filly with plenty of scope and class.
• Has outworked everything including older stakes type runners.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 5
8-CAN’T SLEEP
Degree of confidence: B-
• No lead change but was a stylish debut winner over local lawn.
• Overcame a slow start and a wide trip to score with authority.
• Catches a field with suspect front runners, can tag the leaders.
Others to consider: 3-Quick Kate; 7-The Shushala.
RACE 6
6-MATANZAS CREEK
Degree of confidence: B+
• Exits a series of strong races and lands the cozy outside post.
• Very fast on figures and projects to enjoy a soft stalking trip.
• Beaten choice last pair but ran winning races in both starts.
Others to consider: 4-Hey Brother.
RACE 7
3-AMERICAN GLORY (GB)
Degree of confidence: B
• No lead change but finished well in a solid U.S. debut.
• Barn is terrific (24%) with the second off layoff angle.
• Gets an extra furlong to work with and retains U. Rispoli.
Others to consider: 2-Bartholdy; 5-Indespensible, 6-Let Seamus Go.
RACE 8
1-THE CHOSEN VRON
Degree of confidence: A
• California-bred Horse of the Year faces soft open company.
• Has won 10 of his last 11 starts; was fifth in the BC Sprint.
• Successful in eight of 10 career starts over the local dirt strip.
Others to consider: none.
RACE 9
5-CARIBBEAN KING
Degree of confidence: B+
• Confidence building maiden win over course and distance.
• Pace projects to be easy, should be the controlling speed.
• Earned a career top speed figure in his first off the claim.
Others to consider: none.
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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
March 16, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a competitive 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
4-French Shaker (4-1)-Was used hard as soon as the wings folded and throughout much of the mile. Got the top but faltered around the last turn. Still raced well considering, now drops and will look for a different plan. Probably better off not cutting the mile.
6-Bellacache (12-1)-Was pulled up on 2-7 at the Meadows and tonight's pilot Aaron Merriman was between the pipes. Qualified and then put in a no-move mile at Mea, both races were on a sloppy track, and now makes its Nfld debut. Will look for a price and will assume, with the return of Merriman this mare should be ready to roll.
7-Hill Of A Night (9/2)-Was used hard at the start on 2-9 and eventually landed on the point and didn't look back. Thinking another top try could be coming versus this kind and might double up. That won't be easy but does have the gate speed to grab a close-up seat.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
5-Donn's Count (7/5)-Recent form hasn't been great but ships back from MVR and could have his way with this bunch. Merriman should have the pedal down. If the 4-year-old lands on the point without draining much gas it can be picture time.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
1-Royaltys Dreamer (8/5)-Might try to wire the field with this post draw but doesn't have big gate speed. Can win without taking control off the gate and the Kreiser entry has been in sharp form, best to respect.
7-Rockin Requiem (4-1)-Recent from has been dull but gets needed class relief. This mare probably needs to lead every step of the way to win. But does have enough gate speed to get the top and might be able to seal the deal against this kind.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
1-Tonic Treasure (6-1)-Needs an efficient trip to win and this is the time where that could happen. Will take a swing for a trip out win at a good price. Elson Miller may look to get a pocket ride behind the program chalk #2.
2-Indianas Quest GB (6/5)-Meadows shipper seems to have landed in a nice spot to make its Nfld debut. Has good gate speed and Ronnie Wrenn could get the point and be tough to tackle.
3-Modern Q (7/2)-Not exactly sure what to expect but it would be no shock if this mare is overlooked and does seem competitive. Lightly raced 4-year-old could get lucky if Kurt Sugg can be in reach of the leader at the top of the last turn.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
4,6,7/5/1,7/1,2,3
Total Bet=$18
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Jeremy Plonk: $25,000 Exacta-Thon Tampa Bay Picks | Saturday
March 14, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
1/ST BET and Xpressbet are offering a $25,000 Exacta-Thon on Saturday’s racing at Tampa Bay Downs. The 9-race card will provide horseplayers a chance for an extra boost to their balance.
As you play Saturday’s Tampa Bay Downs races, give extra consideration to exacta bets. That’s because players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet who cash any exacta combination in at least 6 of the 9 Tampa Bay Downs races on Saturday will share in an additional $20,000 in free cash. The player(s) who hit the most exactas on the day will be rewarded with their share of an additional $5,000. Exacta-Thon contest wagers are at $2 minimums ($1 exactas do not apply).
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 1
Notable: Claiming race is loaded with early speed and sprinters stretching out in distance. #1 Mr Jack has shown some patience in recent starts and will save ground with a chance to make a move late. But he’s not a great finisher, more apt to come up just short. I’ll key him first and second with the class-dropping speeds to the outside.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Key-box 1 with 6,7 ($8)
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 2
Notable: No strong feel for this race as #3 Dreaming of Style returned from 1-1/2 years away to spread-eagle an easier bunch last time for high-percentage connections. She’ll likely handle the modest class rise if she came out of that win well, but there are no workouts since that Feb. 18 win, raising some concern. #6 Alexa’s Dream has zero sprint speed showing on her form, but has been facing tougher and did break her maiden at 6 furlongs on dirt back in January 2023.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 6 with 1,2,3,4 ($8)
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 3
Notable: Turf claimers this meet have been extremely formful with 42% winning favorites and an average winner at 7-2, far below what you see overall. #3 Gray Vixen and #8 Cupid’s Strike should be well-backed and formidable. #1 Tapit It Up is better than her last, as is #2 Anador, who drew terribly in post 12 and now has an advantage inside off the infield turf chute start. #5 Laloba Feroz should fit well as this level over a course she relishes.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
3,8 with 3,8,1,2,5 ($16)
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 4
Notable: Maiden claiming dirt sprints also have been havens for favorites at the meet, winning over 44%. Trainer Maria Bowersox has had some success in these spots and sends out #7 Bet the Howes, who shares the field’s best, last-out Beyer figure and likely will take wagering action for that. #5 Unfieds Princess may have finally found a field she can beat and adds blinkers, but 6 third-place finishes in 12 starts is hard to trust on top. Tread very lightly in this field. Watch the tote and lean toward the chalk in contest plays.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Straight 7-5 ($2) for a contest play only.
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 5
Notable: Turf allowance features two Chad Brown trainees, #1 Startup Mentality and #4 Royalty Interest for a barn that’s 8: 2-3-0 this meet in turf allowances. Brown has gone to Samy Camacho more often over the years at Tampa, according to the Betmix database, so Startup Mentality may be the stronger of the pair. But he’s had a lot of success in the past several years with Antonio Gallardo (11-23) on Royalty Interest. They’re obviously big players, but #2 Damaso should show early speed and be the one to catch on a modest pace. Look for her to split the Brown pair.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 1,4 with 2 ($4) play multiple times
Part-Wheel 2 with 1,4 ($4) play fewer times
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 6
Notable: #6 Whats Goin On should be a solid favorite for Jose D’Angelo-Antonio Gallardo connections that are a crazy 48% in tandem at the meet. Gulfstream shipper #10 Mudshaft picks up jockey Gabriel Maldonado, who has been Tampa’s top pilot this season in 5-1/2 furlong dirt dashes like this (5-17, 29%). This mare hasn’t won often or in a long, long time, but her recent string of top-3 efforts makes her interesting in the exacta slots. I’ll focus on this pair. You could certainly add additional runners underneath them to your budget.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Box 6-10 ($4)
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 7
Notable: Essentially this same starter allowance was run Feb. 23 and the 2-3-4-5 finishers who couldn’t clear the condition that day against a wire-to-wire winner are back. I’ll look to fresh faces. #6 Big Louie fits the race conditions beautifully, but is just 1-for-16 and tough to trust on the win end for a barn 0-for-19 in 2024 and jockey hitting 2% at the meet. Feels like underneath potential and I’ll put him below all the fresh faces who didn’t run here Feb. 23.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 2,5,7,8,10 with 6 ($10)
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 8
Notable: Tempo looks strong and competitive among several players, giving #5 Sea Art a big-time chance to pounce late while cutting back in distance should naturally put him midflight in this 6-furlong sprint. Like the jockey move to Pablo Morales here for high-percent barn that rarely gets him. Certainly want a win bet here beyond the contest plays as one of my stronger opinions on the card.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 6 with 1,3,4 ($6)
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Tampa Bay Downs // Race 9
Notable: As mentioned earlier, turf claimers this meet have been extremely formful with 42% winning favorites and an average winner at 7-2, far below what you see overall. #2 Harpoon Harry has consistent form and well-drawn, while #8 Nautilus comes off a big figure for high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness and top pilot Antonio Gallardo. They make sense in a race that has made sense most of the meet. Hone in on those two and sprinkle in some prices. You’ll want more weight on the 2-8 combo when gambling, but some extra padding of contenders for contest purposes in the final race if you’re needing that all-important sixth exacta win.
Exacta-Thon Plays:
Part-Wheel 2,8 with 2,8,3,6,9 ($16)
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Fair Grounds - Race #7
| Picks |
Notes |
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| #2 Sally O'Malley |
Debuter goes in a spot that doesn't have a ton of standout form on paper so far, and I'm hoping she'll be able to sit in just behind a few forward players today. |
| #4 Miz Mastery |
She's back up in class off the claim, and she has a little bit of pace that might keep her in the mix early on while making the second start off the break. Maybe. |
| #9 Flightning Bolt |
She's another firster, so take a look at her on the tote and track, but she draws well to avoid trouble if she breaks well. Makes sense. |
| Race Summary |
Sally O'Malley might have found the right spot for a debut score, so check her out in the paddock -- this isn't going to be the most memorable special weight of the meet. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #8 Air It Out |
Barn has done well with route runners in similar spots here this season, and he'll get around two turns after making a mild sprint move last out. Think he can move up enough today to make some noise while getting the jump on the chalk. |
| #9 Cornishman |
He has run on well in those first two starts, and he's already established a pretty tough baseline out of those runs. His lack of early speed seems to be the biggest liability, but he's clearly the one to beat. |
| #1 Gun Party |
Honestly tough for me to split the top three here -- this guy ran pretty well going short in the debut, and he goes from the fence today in a spot without a ton of early speed on paper. Controls the tempo? |
| Race Summary |
Air It Out might offer a price that's just playable enough thanks to the presence of obvious threats like Cornishman and Gun Party, and I think he's got some upside while stretching out. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #1 Helaire |
Finisher has a chance in a spot with a decent bit of pace lined up, including a couple forward players drawn out wide who may hustle and force the issue. His best form here last season came late in the meet, and the last one was a nice step forward off a couple flat tries. Ready to fire? |
| #7 Oak Hill LG |
He just beat some of these last out, including the top choice, and he's dangerous right back with solid pace and an ability to rate a bit if needed. |
| #12 Half Again |
He's got a reliable grinding style and might find another good spying spot from this wide draw. As good as any of these on his better days. |
| Race Summary |
Helaire was shockingly overbet last time out as the 2/1 favorite, but he should at least be some kind of better price today, and I'm hoping all the pace shows. |
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #2
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #2 SUGAR IT’S ELI (6-1) |
Solid run from far turn to finish, moves outside in, should like this distance. |
| #5 RAPSCALLION (5-1) |
‘Took over’ at 5/16s pole, led until late, gets Irad for first grass try. |
| #11 LIVE HIGH LIVE LOW (5-2) |
MSW numbers translate well to this spot, but outside draw no help. |
| Race Summary |
SUGAR IT’S ELI, unhurried to the far turn, sustained a 4- to 6-wide rally when asked for run. He got beat 2-1/2 lengths while wearing blinkers for the second time. He shortens up from a turf route to a long sprint and that could suit him well. Bet to win and place. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #3 BEELINE (5-2) |
Found more when needed, checked home in 1:09-3/5 in smashing debut. |
| #6 VALIANT FORCE (7-5) |
Out-worked 138 others in three morning breezes on Gulfstream dirt. |
| #1 PATRIOT SPIRIT (4-1) |
Stalked and pounced for a 6F stakes win, same trip could be in store. |
| Race Summary |
BEELINE set a torrid pace in his debut, then re-broke for an easy win after his 75-to-1 stablemate collared him on the lead. He jumps right into stakes company in the $100,000 Hutcheson Stakes but, interestingly, races without Lasix today. Bet to win and place. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #4 STICKYMCSHNICKENS (8-1) |
Couldn’t keep up with rapid pace, meets similar foes, adds blinkers. |
| #2 DOCTOR’S ORDERS (9-2) |
Well-prepped for debut; dam won second out and earned $167k. |
| #9 EASTBOSTONBENNY (5-1) |
#9 EASTBOSTONBENNY (5-1) – Dead game on front end, objection against the winner was disallowed |
| Race Summary |
STICKYMCSHNICKENS chased 4-wide and didn’t threaten a couple of rivals in today’s field. But he adds blinkers and could atone as the beaten favorite at a better price in his second go-round. Bet to win and place and play a 2,4/2,4,9, 12/ALL trifecta. |
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Howie Dewey
NCAAB
11:00pm 3 game parlay- Vermont ml, Princeton ml, VCU ml +157 (5u) Maxx
1:00pm Purdue -5.5 -110 (3u)
1:00pm South Florida ml -126 (3u)
3:30pm 2 game parlay Illinois ml, Forida ml +142 (3u)
5:00pm Houston -5.5 - 110 (5u)
6:30pm Marquette +9.5 -114 (5u)
8:30pm 2 game alt parlay- NC State + 15.5, Colorado +3.5 -115 (3u)
** FD Boost 9 game parlay - Vermont ml, VCU ml, Purdue -0.5, Auburn ml, Illinois ml, Florida ml, Houston ml, UConn ml, UNC -2.5 +4190!!!!!! (.5u)
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Docs GOY NBA??
Sorry if this isn't the right area don't see a discussion thread
