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Ended the year in boxing Boxing/MMA 52-45 -11.89 units. Lost 14+ units chasing on UFC 129 and close to the same on UFC 121 . Other than that it was an okay year. Was down 30 units with 2 months left in the year so making up 18 units in a short span giving me a very positive attittude going into this year.
Anyone else have anything to say, words of wisdom?
I won like 600 between boxing and mma, but I really fucked myself jumping on Melvin Guillard last minute against Lauzon. I was chasing from a shitty week I was having and that one really killed me.
I remember you doing real shitty overall this year, then it seems like NCAA football really turned you around. Words of wisdom: don't chase. But we all like to chase.
I already did my 2011 retrospective in the 141 results thread, complete with chart. You can move those posts here if you are feeling organized.
We all know that chasing is generally bad. If you thought it was a good bet, you would have made it before the event started. Words of wisdom: find the common thread in your winners and try to make those kinds of plays. For me, it has been easier to identify the common thread in my losers and avoid those. I thought you had a better year than that though. 2012 starts saturday.
In the past, sometimes when I'm doing poorly, I decide to "tighten up" on my bets. But looking at my plays of 2010, I'm glad I didn't. My small plays ended up doing significantly better overall than the larger bets where I thought I had more confidence. Schaub over Nog, Maia over Munoz, Penn over Diaz, Okami over Silva... a lot of my larger bets bombed.
I'm tempted to say that I need to do more research, but the weird thing is that I did better this year than last year, and last year I did a lot more research.
Go figure.
Maybe your just getting better at this SPX. Less research is always bad. Maybe if you do more research in 2012 you will do better than 2011.
2011 Year End Totals:
2011 END
49-48-2 = +.802
Favorites: 34-19-1 = +6.175
Underdogs: 15-29-1 = -5.373
Parlays: 15-14 +2.554
Props: 4-11 = -6.110
Overall: -2.754
Thee last three months or so killed all My profit. As of UFC136 I was up 9.401u on straight bets, about even between props and parlays give or take a unit or so. Since then everything just took the worst kind of turn. For whatever reason I went from winning a good deal at 136 to hemorrhaging losses.
UFC136: +4.235
UFC137: -3.525
UFC138: -.5
UFCFOX: -1.175
UFC139: -2.4
TUF14F: +2.5
UFC140: -1.397
UFC141: -.9
It's like when I come out of things on top it's a good haul for one event, and then I spend 2-3 events giving it all right back. I'm tightening the screws this year. As of tomorrow I'm not betting steep lined dogs just for the hell of it anymore and no more props. Bring on 2012, year of the win.
I for damn sure know that feeling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ludo
Good luck.
I would like to know what my win-to-loss ratio is on +300 or greater faves. I really don't know if I'm a winner or loser in that regard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ludo
I think it can be profitable to bet steep favorites, but you really need to have a strong sense of why the line is off.
Fuck yeah.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ludo