Wednesday 3/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #4

Picks Notes

#4 Chargina Tough to split the top three, but she might be the best price of the trio, and she draws well to spy the speed from outside early. Better stuff keeps her in the frame with any of these.

#2 Epicurean No excuse behind the top choice last out when 10 cents on the dollar, but that one snapped a five-race winning streak, so the recent form is obviously still competitive with any bounce back today.

#1 Datttsafancyfox She's sharp right now, but I wonder if she might be the tiniest touch light on the class side overall -- still, she beat the top choice recently and fits right back.

Race Summary No strong arguments from me against any of the top three, but Chargina might get the best run of them in this small field, and she could end up as a mildly playable price.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

Picks Notes

#3 Sweet Mobiltee She was sharp in that last one and wasn't embarrassed when she went long a few starts back, so she makes some sense right back while stretching out.

#1 Twisted Justice Hoping the more leisurely route pace helps her stick around a little bit better late, but she doesn't typically offer a ton of resistance when taken on in the final stages. Capable if she can sneak away at some point.

#4 Hello Sweets She's got pretty reliable form going short and should find a decent tracking spot while getting around two turns, but I worry she's going to be a bit overbet.

Race Summary Sweet Mobiltee looked good in the last one, and she has carried her form going long before. Think she'll be in the right kind of spot near the top in a race without much committed speed.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

Picks Notes

#1 May Mayhem The winner and the show horse from the stakes try last out have both been back to win since, and it wouldn't be any surprise to see him wake up with something competitive while getting out of stakes company.

#4 Run Red Run He led until late in the last one, but a similar running line here would probably make him tough with another good trip waiting for him up on the splits.

#5 No Mas Cerveza He might have a little room to grab a share at a price, as he's capable of getting past horses late and might be in a better spot if he can break cleanly today. He's probably a little light to win this.

Race Summary May Mayhem raced against a much better stakes group when making his first start in six months, and moving forward off that would make him a handful against this softer group.

Picks	Notes
#4 Chargina	Tough to split the top three, but she might be the best price of the trio, and she draws well to spy the speed from outside early. Better stuff keeps her in the frame with any of these.
#2 Epicurean	No excuse behind the top choice last out when 10 cents on the dollar, but that one snapped a five-race winning streak, so the recent form is obviously still competitive with any bounce back today.
#1 Datttsafancyfox	She's sharp right now, but I wonder if she might be the tiniest touch light on the class side overall -- still, she beat the top choice recently and fits right back.
Race Summary	No strong arguments from me against any of the top three, but Chargina might get the best run of them in this small field, and she could end up as a mildly playable price.

Picks	Notes
#3 Sweet Mobiltee	She was sharp in that last one and wasn't embarrassed when she went long a few starts back, so she makes some sense right back while stretching out.
#1 Twisted Justice	Hoping the more leisurely route pace helps her stick around a little bit better late, but she doesn't typically offer a ton of resistance when taken on in the final stages. Capable if she can sneak away at some point.
#4 Hello Sweets	She's got pretty reliable form going short and should find a decent tracking spot while getting around two turns, but I worry she's going to be a bit overbet.
Race Summary	Sweet Mobiltee looked good in the last one, and she has carried her form going long before. Think she'll be in the right kind of spot near the top in a race without much committed speed.

Picks	Notes
#1 May Mayhem	The winner and the show horse from the stakes try last out have both been back to win since, and it wouldn't be any surprise to see him wake up with something competitive while getting out of stakes company.
#4 Run Red Run	He led until late in the last one, but a similar running line here would probably make him tough with another good trip waiting for him up on the splits.
#5 No Mas Cerveza	He might have a little room to grab a share at a price, as he's capable of getting past horses late and might be in a better spot if he can break cleanly today. He's probably a little light to win this.
Race Summary	May Mayhem raced against a much better stakes group when making his first start in six months, and moving forward off that would make him a handful against this softer group.

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

Picks Notes

#2 DREAM KNIGHT (6-1) All signs pointing up for sharp barn, good record at the distance.

#7 GRANTED SUCCESS (5-2) Dueled to stretch in long sprint, Gallardo’s choice of uncoupled entry.

#1 JOYFUL GHOST (5-1) Model of consistency at various sprint distances and surfaces.

Race Summary DREAM KNIGHT chased a fast pace in an improved second start off the D’Angelo claim but couldn’t gain on the odds-on winner. He takes a step up in class and cuts back to a short sprint, but he should sit a good stalking trip in a speed-laden field and is worth a win and place wager.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

Picks Notes

#1 ALMA PURA (7-2) Duplicate of 7F race two back at this level makes her today’s Best Bet.

#5 ROCK ME AMADEUS (4-1) Had fastest-of-68 4F work at Tampa Feb. 16; dam was unraced.

#3 AWESOME ELISSA (5-2) Heavily bet in both starts at 6F, drops a notch.

Race Summary ALMA PURA willingly pursued the 4-to-5 favorite from the outside post and held second two starts back in the same spot. She was made the favorite off that effort but couldn’t recover from a rough start. She’d be a bargain if her 7-to-2 morning-line odds stick. Bet to win and place.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8

Picks Notes

#6 HERCULES (3-1) Looks like strong candidate to repeat with decisive speed advantage.

#4 STREET GLIDE (2-1) Chased the odds-on favorite and finished second in a six-horse field.

#2 MISSION KEY (5-1) Won both main-track routes last year, runs for less than September claim price.

Race Summary HERCULES won in his only start at this distance to begin his 4yo season three starts back, then he kicked clear to win at 7F last out when claimed for the third consecutive start. He steps up again but is the controlling speed as he zooms in on a quarter million in earnings. Bet to win and place.

Picks	Notes
#2 DREAM KNIGHT (6-1)	All signs pointing up for sharp barn, good record at the distance.
#7 GRANTED SUCCESS (5-2)	Dueled to stretch in long sprint, Gallardo’s choice of uncoupled entry.
#1 JOYFUL GHOST (5-1)	Model of consistency at various sprint distances and surfaces.
Race Summary	DREAM KNIGHT chased a fast pace in an improved second start off the D’Angelo claim but couldn’t gain on the odds-on winner. He takes a step up in class and cuts back to a short sprint, but he should sit a good stalking trip in a speed-laden field and is worth a win and place wager.

Picks	Notes
#1 ALMA PURA (7-2)	Duplicate of 7F race two back at this level makes her today’s Best Bet.
#5 ROCK ME AMADEUS (4-1)	Had fastest-of-68 4F work at Tampa Feb. 16; dam was unraced.
#3 AWESOME ELISSA (5-2)	Heavily bet in both starts at 6F, drops a notch.
Race Summary	ALMA PURA willingly pursued the 4-to-5 favorite from the outside post and held second two starts back in the same spot. She was made the favorite off that effort but couldn’t recover from a rough start. She’d be a bargain if her 7-to-2 morning-line odds stick. Bet to win and place.

Picks	Notes
#6 HERCULES (3-1)	Looks like strong candidate to repeat with decisive speed advantage.
#4 STREET GLIDE (2-1)	Chased the odds-on favorite and finished second in a six-horse field.
#2 MISSION KEY (5-1)	Won both main-track routes last year, runs for less than September claim price.
Race Summary	HERCULES won in his only start at this distance to begin his 4yo season three starts back, then he kicked clear to win at 7F last out when claimed for the third consecutive start. He steps up again but is the controlling speed as he zooms in on a quarter million in earnings. Bet to win and place.

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 7
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta

Optional Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $91,000 • Post: 4:07P

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SENSE YOU LEFT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EVIDENCIAS (BRZ): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SENSE YOU LEFT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Class Rating at the distance/surface.

1
EVIDENCIAS (BRZ)
6/5

5/2

7
SENSE YOU LEFT
5/2

4/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

7
SENSE YOU LEFT
7

5/2
Front-runner
85

73

79.6

77.8

70.3

3
MAMA MARIA
3

12/1
Stalker
81

65

42.7

48.3

38.8

2
FOUNDER'S DAY
2

10/1
Alternator/Stalker
89

79

55.9

78.7

73.2

1
EVIDENCIAS (BRZ)
1

6/5
Trailer
97

92

71.4

89.6

87.1

6
MISS UCRANIA
6

6/1
Trailer
69

72

54.6

59.2

46.7

5
STEEL RACER
5

5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83

77

58.4

64.0

56.5

4
ORNELA (CHI)
4

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
84

85

57.8

57.8

47.3

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race CoursePURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 2
Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 2-3-4)

Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 45 • Purse: $19,400 • Post: 1:22P

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * STARLITESLEW: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OH EYE SEE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MY TWO JAKES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).

2
STARLITESLEW
5/2

5/1

5
OH EYE SEE
6/1

5/1

3
MY TWO JAKES
4/1

5/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

3
MY TWO JAKES
3

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
49

45

42.6

34.6

29.1

5
OH EYE SEE
5

6/1
Alternator/Stalker
44

48

40.2

36.2

26.7

2
STARLITESLEW
2

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
54

38

40.2

34.0

30.5

4
DEE'S KY WILDCAT
4

3/1
Trailer
48

37

27.6

31.0

22.5

6
TITEBLUEJEANS
6

5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
40

31

52.4

33.6

26.6

1
HALO EFFECT
1

9/2
Alternator/Non-contender
53

34

50.6

31.8

25.3

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 60

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 6 SEATTLE WILDCAT 5/2

# 3 NATALIE'S GOLD 3/1

# 5 HOT CHOCOLATE 4/1

SEATTLE WILDCAT has a respectable shot to take this race. Ran a very strong last race. NATALIE'S GOLD - Is a strong contender based on figures posted lately under today's conditions. Roman has been on fire the last month, winning at a nifty 25 percent clip. HOT CHOCOLATE - Will almost certainly compete admirably in the pace contest which bodes well with this field.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:50pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 BAYOU CHROME (ML=9/2)
#7 KURT'S CHOICE (ML=8/1)
#5 HOT MEMORIES (ML=15/1)

BAYOU CHROME - The fact that this colt is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. This colt has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's race. Rosales has a knack for picking up equines that can be improved. Fantastic win rate with animals off a claim, and they just picked this one up out of his last race. KURT'S CHOICE - Evans has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. Evans drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more information to think this animal should have a chance to win at this level. That recent bullet 58.6 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top race today. HOT MEMORIES - This gelding is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprint horses that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BEAU MISCHIEF (ML=5/2), #4 BUFFETT (ML=7/2), #8 WEALTH N HEALTH (ML=4/1),

BEAU MISCHIEF - I don't have a good sensation about this horse in this affair. BUFFETT - This gelding earned a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. WEALTH N HEALTH - Looked like he was in good form on Mar 6th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. Ran somewhat erratically last time around the track on Mar 6th at Turf Paradise.

STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #3 BAYOU CHROME to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS: Box [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif
# 7 GRANTED SUCCESS 5/2

# 6 AWESOME PRINCE 6/1

# 1 JOYFUL GHOST 5/1

GRANTED SUCCESS is the strongest bet in this race. Risk takers ought to take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field. Ought to be carefully examined in this race if only for the strong Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last contest. Formidable average Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this racer a contender. AWESOME PRINCE - Has competed admirably in dirt sprint races. Love when any racer makes a quick major improvement. JOYFUL GHOST - Is worth a look and may be a wager - strong speed figures (75 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Displays the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 74 speed fig which is one of the best in this group.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,200 Class Rating: 57

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 SELES (ML=7/2)
#1 COLLECTED SUCCESS (ML=5/1)
#2 BUCKFAST ABBEY (ML=6/1)

SELES - Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a good effort on March 7th. Last out, this one was in a race at Charles Town in a race with a class figure of 64. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure today puts her in a solid position in this race. PP lines show this racer with three improving speed figs. Chavez should be on a live one right here. COLLECTED SUCCESS - This filly usually does her best running late. Look for her last down the backstretch early in the race and finishing best of all on the tiring speed horses. Racing at a similar level as last race on February 14th at Charles Town. I think Binning has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances in today's race. BUCKFAST ABBEY - This animal probably isn't going to sit off the pace. She should bust out of the gate and be one of the first to hit that tight turn. Watch for her in the homestretch. Entered a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race at Penn National last time out and raced on a track listed as good finishing sixth. Will most certainly do better in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 UNMATCHED (ML=5/2), #3 TIDBIT (ML=6/1),

UNMATCHED - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. TIDBIT - Finished fourth on March 13th after the long breather. Doubtful if there will be any betterment in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #7 SELES to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS: Box [1,2,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

Gulfstream Park - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $91,000 • Post: 4:07P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SENSE YOU LEFT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EVIDENCIAS (BRZ): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SENSE YOU LEFT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	EVIDENCIAS (BRZ)	6/5	5/2
7	SENSE YOU LEFT	5/2	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	SENSE YOU LEFT	7	5/2	Front-runner	85	73	79.6	77.8	70.3
3	MAMA MARIA	3	12/1	Stalker	81	65	42.7	48.3	38.8
2	FOUNDER'S DAY	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	79	55.9	78.7	73.2
1	EVIDENCIAS (BRZ)	1	6/5	Trailer	97	92	71.4	89.6	87.1
6	MISS UCRANIA	6	6/1	Trailer	69	72	54.6	59.2	46.7
5	STEEL RACER	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	77	58.4	64.0	56.5
4	ORNELA (CHI)	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	85	57.8	57.8	47.3

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 2	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 45 • Purse: $19,400 • Post: 1:22P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif	# 6 SEATTLE WILDCAT 5/2
# 3 NATALIE'S GOLD 3/1
# 5 HOT CHOCOLATE 4/1

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 BAYOU CHROME to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif	# 7 GRANTED SUCCESS 5/2
# 6 AWESOME PRINCE 6/1
# 1 JOYFUL GHOST 5/1

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 SELES to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None