NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 3
NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 3
By SHAWN HARTLEN | September 18, 2008
Kansas City at Atlanta (-5)
Why Chiefs cover: Are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Have only lost once in six meetings with Atlanta. Falcons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Why Falcons cover: NFC-leading ground game keeps pressure off rookie QB Matt Ryan. Chiefs are allowing 213 rushing yards per game. Kansas City will start Tyler Thigpen (54 percent QB rating) at quarterback.
Total (36 ½): Over is 5-0 in Falcons’ last five home games and 8-1 in their last nine games overall.
Arizona at Washington (-3)
Why Cardinals cover: Kurt Warner playing like an MVP quarterback again. Underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Why Redskins cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Have won last six meetings with Cardinals. New offense looked much better in last week’s win over New Orleans.
Total (42 1/2): Over is 18-6 in Cardinals’ last 24 games overall.
Houston at Tennessee (-5)
Why Texans cover: Vince Young will not play due to mental and knee problems. Kerry Collins will start at QB for the Titans. Underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Why Titans cover: Are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC South. Have won 10 of 12 all-time meetings with Houston, including six straight. Defense holding opponents to 8.5 points per game. Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with Tennessee.
Total (39): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Oakland at Buffalo (-9 1/2)
Why Raiders cover: Have won the last four meetings. Rookie halfback Darren McFadden exploded with a 164-yard performance last week and will be out to claim the No. 1 spot from the injured Justin Fargas.
Why Bills cover: Are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on turf. Trent Edwards has thrived as the Bills’ starting QB (454 yards, 2 TDs, zero INTs). Rumor of coach Lane Kiffin’s impending firing could be a distraction for Oakland. JaMarcus Russell has looked lost at the Raiders QB.
Total (36 1/2): Over is 4-1 in Raiders’ last five road games and 5-0 in Bills’ last five home games.
Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3)
Why Buccaneers cover: Will go with Brian Griese again at QB. Griese has had success under Jon Gruden, throwing for 3928 yards with 28 TDs in 18 games. Defense could feast on an already struggling Chicago passing game. Bears could be without sparkplug Devin Hester, who has a rib injury.
Why Bears cover: Are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and will be without top receiver Joey Galloway, who has a foot injury.
Total (35): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
Carolina at Minnesota (-3 1/2)
Why Panthers cover: Are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Get Pro-Bowl receiver Steve Smith back from suspension. Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
Why Vikings cover: Will it be Tarvaris Jackson in favor of veteran QB Gus Frerotte to spark anaemic passing game? Adrian Peterson could be even more explosive if the passing game can be adequate. Holding opponents to 82 rushing yards per game.
Total (37 1/2): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota.
Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants (-13 1/2)
Why Bengals cover: Allowing the fewest sacks in the league. Held Eli Manning to 201 yards passing with an interception in their last meeting, a 23-22 victory.
Why Giants cover: Tough defense gets another matchup against a struggling offense. Three-headed rushing attack faces a Cincy defense that has allowed 406 yards on the ground through two games. Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Total (41 1/2): Under is 4-1 in Bengals’ last five road games and 7-1 in their last eight games overall.
Miami at New England (-13)
Why Dolphins cover: Large spread for a New England team that is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games and has only managed to score a total of 36 points against weak opponents in 2008. Patriots could be without running backs Laurence Maroney and LaMont Jordan, who were absent from practice Wednesday.
Why Patriots cover: Home team is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Miami has the third worst passing defense in the league. Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in New England.
Total (36): Under is 6-0-1 in Patriots’ last seven home games and 4-0 in their last four games overall.
New Orleans at Denver (-5 1/2)
Why Saints cover: New Orleans still possesses one of the better offenses in the league. While the Saints ground game has been ineffective, Reggie Bush has found the end zone in each of his first two seasons.
Why Broncos cover: QB Jay Culter is finding his groove. The young signal caller leads the NFL in passing yards (650) and touchdown passes (six). Mike Shanahan's offense has gained 927 yards in two games.
Total (51): Over is 7-0 in Saints last 7 games overall. Over is 12-1-1 in Broncos last 14 home games.
Detroit at San Francisco (-4)
Why Lions cover: Have strong passing attack centered on second-year phenom Calvin Johnson (236 yards, 2 TDs). Niners have allowed 12 quarterback sacks, by far the most in the NFL.
Why 49ers cover: Quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has looked good in Mike Martz's offense. Detroit has lost both games this season and by an average of 18 points per game. Lions are 0-5 ATS their last five games.
Total (46 ½): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Francisco.
St. Louis at Seattle (-9 1/2)
Why Rams cover: Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Injuries to the offense continue to hamper the Seahawks, who are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Why Seahawks cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Addition of Koren Robinson should give Matt Hasselbeck a reliable target in the passing game. Rams only averaging 52 rushing yards per game and are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
Total (43 ½): Over is 5-0 in Seahawks’ last five games and 4-1 in Rams’ last five games.
Cleveland at Baltimore (-1)
Why Browns cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and won both meetings outright last season. Baltimore rookie QB Joe Flacco will be making his second NFL start. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Ravens cover: Early bye week allowed injured stars Todd Heap and Willis McGahee another week to recover. Both could play Sunday. Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Browns' offense playing way below expectations.
Total (38 1/2): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Baltimore.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-3)
Why Steelers cover: Holding opponents to 11.5 points per game. Willie Parker (243 rushing yards, 3 TDs) is fully recovered from a broken leg suffered last season.
Why Eagles cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Have the NFC's highest scoring offense. Ben Roethlisberger dealing with a sprained shoulder. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and have not won on the road in Philadelphia in their last seven meetings.
Total (43 ½): Over is 5-1 in Steelers’ last six games.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-5)
Why Jaguars cover: Are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and will be without defensive player of the year Bob Sanders, who has a sprained ankle. Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Why Colts cover: Could get offensive lineman, Jeff Saturday, and tight end Dallas Clark back from injuries. Jaguars once-feared running attack has been awful in 2008 and QB David Garrard has already matched last season's interception total (3).
Total (41 ½): Over is 7-1-1 in Jaguars’ last nine road games and 10-2-2 in their last 14 games overall.
Dallas at Green Bay (+3)
Why Cowboys cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Have the second-best offense in the NFL. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Packers cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Aaron Rodgers has been spectacular, sporting 117.8 QB rating this season. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and will be without starting safety Roy Williams who broke his arm last week. Home team is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Total (51 ½): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
N.Y. Jets at San Diego (-9 1/2)
Why Jets cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with San Diego. Brett Favre is 5-0 in his career against San Diego. LaDainian Tomlinson dealing with a toe injury. Chargers have allowed a whopping 837 yards of offense through two games.
Why Chargers cover: Are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Philip Rivers (594 yards, 6 TDs) has been one of the best quarterbacks so far this season.
Total (44): Under is 4-0 in Chargers’ last four Monday games and 6-0 in Jets’ last six games overall.
