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It opened at -205 which was way too high imo . I wouldnt take Rua anywhere near the current line
I think rashad wins
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Originally Posted by poopoo333
I dont know if he'll win but I think it could be really close .
I think Rashad will get it done too. He won't stand with Shogun much, and Shogun has be taken down and controlled. Rashad has shown really goto submission defense.
Please let it be Shogun by knee bar.
I am not convinced that Shogun won't gas. Shogun has been taken down and controlled before, even by an old gassed Mark Coleman @ UFC 93. Lots of people say "Shogun is back!" after the Machida/Liddell fights, but I don't think he was ever completely "gone". He went from Pride to the UFC, ring to the cage, etc etc. Just because he didn't gas in a stand up fight with Machida doesn't mean he won't gas against an athletic wrestler in Rashad. Rashad can wear Shogun up against the cage, and on the mat. Oh, and for the record I hope Shogun wins.
^^ The Forrest fight is what makes me think he will lose.
Who knows what shape Rua's knee will be in.
Before this latest injury to Rua, I would have bet him for sure. Now, I am leaning towards Rashad. Knowing what we know about how Rua came back after his knee injury a couple years ago, I cant trust him.
This fighter's too much of a gamble based on how healthy Shogun turns up.
Rashad
- Knows he's a wrestler now and won't try to stand and bang like he did vs. Machida
- Shogun's never had the greatest TDD
On the other hand, Rashad's weakness has been shown to be the 3rd round. Gets clipped/gassed badly vs. Rampage and Thiago Silva. 5 Rounds is plenty of time for him to get caught.
Yeah Rashad does get caught a lot, but Shogun's wrestling stinks. He might be out of shape for this too.
Depending on how long his knee surgery takes.
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A UFC 128 title fight between light-heavyweight champ Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (19-4 MMA, 3-2 UFC) and Rashad Evans (15-1-1 MMA, 10-1-1 UFC) now will take the main-event slot of a UFC 129 show expected to take place in New Jersey.
Additionally, a lightweight bout between local fighter Kurt Pellegrino (15-5 MMA, 7-4 UFC) and Gleison Tibau (21-7 MMA, 7-5 UFC) is in the works for the show.
Although not officially announced by the organization, UFC 129 is expected to take place March 19 at the Prudential Center in Newark and air on pay-per-view.
Initially, UFC 128 was expected to take place March 12 in Adu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. But as MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) cautioned, officials hadn't been able to secure a venue and hinted that the show could move. On Tuesday, sportsnet.ca first reported the rescheduling of "Shogun" vs. Evans to the UFC 129 slot, and today, Pellegrino announced via Twitter his fight with Tibau. Sources close to the event today confirmed both bookings.
Additionally, as MMAjunkie.com first reported, officials initially planned to host a March 12 event overseas (the potential Abu Dhabi show) and a March 19 event in the U.S. But the shows now could be combined into a single event, so the currently titled UFC 129 event could become UFC 128.
Rua, a longtime star with the now-defunct PRIDE Fighting Championships, is 3-1 since his promotional-debut loss to Forrest Griffin. The lone defeat came to Lyoto Machida in their first meeting, and many in the industry panned the unanimous decision and felt Rua won the fight. Seven months later in the rematch, he needed less than a round to score a knockout and win the belt from his fellow Brazilian. He's now recovering from a knee injury.
Evans earned another shot at the title with a May win over rival Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in the main event of UFC 114. Although he said he'd be open to an interim-title fight if Rua were to experience a lengthy layoff, he later said he'd prefer to wait for the champion. Evans, who also has defeated Thiago Silva since losing his belt, now will have a yearlong layoff while waiting for his shot to reclaim the title.
Pellegrino, meanwhile, recently saw a four-fight win streak snapped with a unanimous-decision loss to George Sotiropoulos back in July. Prior to the loss, Pellegrino, who's been sidelined by his recovery from knee surgery, posted submission wins over Rob Emerson and Fabricio Camoes and decision victories over Thiago Tavares and Josh Neer.
Tibau entered the title picture with a recent 4-1 run in the UFC that saw wins over the likes of Jeremy Stephens, Caol Uno and Neer. But in his most recent bout at UFC Fight Night 22, the American Top Team product suffered a decision loss to division standout Jim Miller.
In addition to those bouts, a fight between Tito Ortiz (15-8-1 MMA, 14-8-1 UFC) and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC) also is expected to move from UFC 128 to UFC 129
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2u on Evans, but I hope Rua wins. Rashad will control him with his wrestling. Unlike Rampage and Silva, if Rua clips him he will finish, unless he's gassed. Im banking on Evans being able to control him though, and Rua may gas.
Fuck I think evans has a LOT of value at +150. Not sure I can pull the trigger since Shogun's my favorite fighter
A welterweight match-up has been added to the upcoming UFC 128 card in New Jersey as Mike Pyle and Ricardo Almeida have agreed to meet on the March 19 show.
The fight was confirmed to MMAWeekly.com by sources close to the match-up who stated verbal agreements are in place for the UFC 128 showdown.
Two talented lightweight strikers will do battle at UFC 128 in Newark, when Anthony Njokuani meets Edson Barboza, according to MMA Junkie.
Mirko ‘CroCop’ Filipovic and Brendan Schaub are set to meet on March 19th and will air on the evening’s PPV main card, Fighters Only can exclusively reveal.
Verbal agreements are in place and paperwork is expected to be finalized soon. It had been reported that Schaub was to face Frank Mir, then Stefan Struve, but neither of those matches were contracted and have now been scrapped.
^^^^^ so who will Schaub be fighting tomorrow?
Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland, UFC 128 in New Jersey
http://aol.it/gSlnKu
That should be a good fight.
Luis Cane-Karlos Vemola Slated for UFC 128
http://bit.ly/e8gyGq
Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus On Tap for UFC 128 in March
-Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Rashad Evans [LHW Title]
-Brendan Schaub vs. Mirko Cro Cop
-Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus
-Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle
-Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland
-Dan Miller vs. Dave Branch
-Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau
-Karlos Vemola vs. Luiz Cane
-Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Njokuani
lol Shalorus is going to get destroyed
Might haveta get tix to this event, I didn't realize it was in NJ and have never seen an MMA event live. Rua-Evans seems like a good one to start with.
Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland added to UFC 128
http://ht.ly/3yjLg
It will be a battle of Jersey pride in Newark, when middleweights Dan Miller and Nick Catone square off at UFC 128 on March 19th
Bye Bye Sexy
The curious case of Akiyama.
Loses to Leben, gets a fight with Bisping.
Loses to Bisping, gets a fight with Sonnen.
Sonnen drops out, gets replaced with Marquardt?
If he loses to Nate does he get a title shot? What the hell?
I would say Sexyama has a shot if his cardio wasn't so horrible.
Where do you guys see the Rashad line going? I want to make a bet on Rashad, but I am not sure if it is going to get better or worse.
^ His line has stayed in the +140 to +155 range... It is at a high point now. I don't think it will get any better personally. A lot of people think Rashad is going to win. I would not be surprised to see it drop closer to fight time. But I am pretty horrible about gauging public perception. I can usually spot a line that is "off" but once the line is set, I am not good about guessing which way it will go.
Usually a good reference to find out on which way the line is going to move is to look on sherdog or mmajunkie's forum. as soon as there is a post on a certain fight, look who the majority of the people are picking. Casual fans and ''casual'' gamblers doesn't care how high is the line. If they think that a fighter A is going to win, they will bet on him either he is at -250 or -500.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzzDUmVUhTY
Even more of a reason to bet on Rashad, he is training hard.
What do you guys think of Sexyama/Marquardt? Everyone is saying Marquardt wins, and I admit I was one of them at first look at the fight, but I am only judging that on Akiyama losing his last 2 fights.