All games ... 49.7% ATS (-273.29 units)
Games 1-4 ... 55.2% ATS (+68.02 units)
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All games ... 49.7% ATS (-273.29 units)
Games 1-4 ... 55.2% ATS (+68.02 units)
Ranked teams are the best bet in Game 1 but avoid Top 25 matchups. Any advantage the best programs in the country have from talent/coaching would be neutralized against a ranked opponent. By targeting games against unranked teams the win rate improves from 57% to 58.5% ATS.
Top 25 teams in heavily bet games against unranked opponents to start the season are 51-29 (63.8%) ATS, +19.5 units since 2005.
Do you have any numbers on unranked teams favored over ranked teams?