IntPicks
FREE PICK of the DAY
October 18, 2017
NBA
#718
1 Star
9:30 PM ET
Minnesota @ SA
Take SA -1.5
Printable View
IntPicks
FREE PICK of the DAY
October 18, 2017
NBA
#718
1 Star
9:30 PM ET
Minnesota @ SA
Take SA -1.5
DAVE COKIN
PELICANS AT GRIZZLIES
PLAY: PELICANS +2.5
My strategy early on in the NBA season is to focus on underdogs that I have rated superior on my preseason projections. The whole idea is to grab a few early winners vs. some soft numbers and to do so before the odds get adjusted. That will not take long at all, so it’s imperative for me to not hesitate early and to garner what I see as prime early season value.
In this game, I have New Orleans rated considerably stronger than Memphis. So this is strictly a numbers play for me and an opportunity to take basket or so with a Pelicans squad I consider to be stronger than their Grizzlies counterparts. New Orleans plus the points is the choice.
Gary Bart
Hawks at Mavericks
Play: Hawks +6
The Hawks are coming off a 43 win season but are expected to take a step backward this season. They traded Dwight Howard to Charlotte in the off-season. Dallas won 33 games last season, finishing last in their division. Look for the Hawks to keep this game close.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio -1.5
Young Minnesota opens the season on the road on a 4-11-1 ATS run, including 3-8-1 ATS away from home. They were 11-30 straight-up on the road last season and are getting too much respect with this betting number because of the injury to San Antonio star Kawhi Leonard. The Spurs went 61-21 last year, led the league in defensive rating (100.9) and were seventh in offensive rating (108.8 ). They have LaMarcus Aldridge up front, joined by newcomer Rudy Gay, who was strong during the preseason (10.5 points, 5.0 rebounds in 21 minutes per game). San Antonio has the best coach in the league, a strong home court edge, and is 8-3 ATS against Minnesota. The Spurs are also 43-23 ATS in the first half of the season.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -1½ +186 over Detroit
The Leafs will go with backup Curtis McElhinney here and while most think that using a backup is detrimental to the team’s chances of winning, we see it as the opposite. The backup goaltenders are usually the most liked person on the team. They never complain and they work harder than most without getting the playing time. Thus, when they get penciled in the entire team wants them to win so badly that they give a little extra. Aside from that, McElhinney might be better than Frederick Andersen. We liked him when he was backing up Bob in Columbus and have no fear in getting behind him and the Leafs here. As for the Maple Leafs, well they’ve played three home games thus far and have outshot those three opponents by a count of 134-87 and they’re not taking a step up in class here. We love that Toronto is coming off a 6-3 home loss too. That didn’t sit well with the boss.
Detroit comes into this one with a healthy 4-2 record but regression is on the way. Detroit ranks 16th in scoring chances for but they have played Vegas, Arizona, Ottawa and Dallas among others and were just one of two teams (Vegas was the other) that have been outshot by the Coyotes this year. Detroit has surprised some folks early on but it’s not reasonable to expect it to continue. A growing portion of the fan base feels the Red Wings are indeed being "mismanaged into oblivion," and there's no coherent or effective plan going forward. Fair or not, Ken Holland receives criticism for the Wings' salary cap management, poor drafting, poor player development, over-reliance on older veterans, overvaluation of its players, and focus on getting bigger while the most successful NHL teams are trending younger and faster. This is Detroit’s toughest opponent to date. They have had the luxury of an easy schedule thus far and unless Jimmy Howard stands on his head, Toronto figures to expose them in a bad way.
Montreal +155 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. After failing to make the post-season for the second time in three seasons, the Kings parted ways with Darryl Sutter and Dean Lombardi, the architects of their two Stanley Cup championships. With John Stevens behind the bench and Rob Blake in the press box, the Kings are off to a fast start this season, picking up four victories and an overtime defeat in their five games thus far. We’re hearing lots of talk regarding the resurgent play of Anze Kopitar, which has power L.A.’s quick start. Jonathan Quick’s .939 save percentage and a 95% penalty kill efficiency certainly do not hurt matters either. L.A. is relaxed and feeling good while the Canadiens are reeling. You will pay a massive premium to get behind the Kings here due to the start of both respective teams but we can assure you we are getting the better team plus a big price here. That doesn’t mean the Habs will win, as state of mind counts for something, but if we’re playing value, the Habs must be played here.
The Canadiens are mired in a funk right now that goes beyond talent, effort, statistics, and luck. The entire team appears to be playing on their heels, afraid to make an error, and this is particularly evident if (or when) they go down by a goal. As for their opponents, while they have benefited from puck luck (PDO 103), the Kings’ strong start is also accompanied by just above league average underlying possession numbers. Sixteen goals scored puts them exactly at league average. In other words, the Kings are league average and therefore cannot be favored by this much against the Canadiens. Furthermore, Jonathan Quick is not as good as advertised. Regression all around is forthcoming.
Montreal needs to shake this thing up but they have the talent and puck possession numbers to do so. Carey Price has an .885 save percentage this season and once again was not sharp last night (.882 save %). There is a good chance that the Habs will turn to backup Al Montoya tonight but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. The Habs need to get a bounce or two their way and the season could change quickly for them. If we were willing to take back +110 in San Jose last night, of course we’re willing to take back better than 7½-5 tonight. There is too much value not to.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Dodgers +102 over CHICAGO
The Dodgers have outscored the Cubs 15-4 in this series and we have no reason to believe for a second that anything can or will change in Game 4. The Cubbies got off to a shaky start in April and they’re going out to a shaky finish. They lack focus too, as the mental errors add up. It is clear that the Dodgers are the hungrier team while the Cubs hunger was quenched last season. Aside from having an advantage at the plate, in the pen and in mindset, the Dodgers have a big edge on the hill today with Alex Wood opposing Jake Arrieta. While Wood starting out like a house on fire, he’s cooled off a bit but his command, K’s and rising groundball/K-rate combo is intriguing. We’re not betting on Wood here, however, we’re betting on the Dodgers bats and the Dodgers to beat up on Jake Arrieta and the Cubs.
Jake Arrieta would see his first big league action in 2010, making 58 unremarkable (read: bad) starts before sliding into a middle-relief role for the Orioles in 2012. At the 2013 trade deadline, the Orioles sought to bolster their rotation, so they flipped Arrieta and Pedro Strop to the Cubs for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger. Seriously. For the Cubs, it would go down as a heist that would make Danny Ocean proud. Once on the North Side, it didn’t take long for Arrieta to go from trade afterthought to frontline starter. He tinkered with his pitch mix, throwing more sliders and sinkers, which led to a truly anemic homer run rate and a dramatic increase in whiffs. The new repertoire helped Arrieta become one of the best pitchers in baseball, culminating in a Cy Young Award in 2015. While he hasn’t repeated the heights of his award-winning campaign, Arrieta has fluctuated between good and great ever since, anchoring the Cubs’ World Series rotation. That was then. Right now, Arrietta is pitching like he’s back in a O’s uniform.
Early in the 2017 season, Arrieta has a little trouble with the long ball. You know, just like pretty much everyone else in the league. The 31-year-old surrendered 14 dingers in the first half, compared to 10 and 16 home runs he’d given up in the entirety of the 2015 and 2016 seasons, respectively. In his first 11 starts, he struggled as hitters tattooed his sinker and slider, leading to a bloated 4.60 ERA in 62.2 innings. Despite his struggles, he was striking out over 10 batters per nine innings with a swinging-strike rate over 11% but things have gotten much worse.
It’s at least conceivable that Arrieta’s early woes were mostly tied to bad luck. Batters were hitting .337 on balls in play against him and he was able to strand 67% of baserunners, a number well below league average. Having said that, Arrieta lost a couple ticks of velocity this season, which has contributed to the lowest vertical movement on his sinker in his career. In 2015, Arrieta averaged 91 mph with his slider, the hardest in baseball, getting ground balls in over 54% of batted balls. This year the pitch averaged 88 mph (18th in the league), and managed only 29% ground balls, one of the lowest rates for any starter in the league. Over his last five starts, Arrieta’s swing and miss rate is 6%. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is 34%/22%/44% (incidentally, we include infield pops as groundballs). Since the beginning of August, Arrieta has a 1.74 WHIP and a 6.10 ERA with a 5.77 xERA. This is the Baltimore version of Jake Arietta pitching in an elimination game that we give him or the Cubs little chance of success in.
Power Sports
Milwaukee vs. Boston
Pick: Milwaukee +3
Needless to say, this is an awful spot for Boston. Not only did they lose a close game in Cleveland last night (Kyrie Irving's much hyped return), but they also lost their other new acquisition (Gordon Hayward) for probably the entire season. One loss won't kill them, but the quick turnaround w/ an overhauled roster should result in an 0-2 start for the guys in green. Waiting in the wings here is a Milwaukee team that has every bit the chance to finish 2nd in the East as do the Celtics. Take the points (although you likely won't need them).
Boston trailed by as many as 18 last night before a second half comeback ultimately fell short. As I said in my analysis for that game, it's very odd to see a team that finished #1 in its Conference almost completely overhaul its roster the following year. Only four players are back from the team that won 53 games last season. Players such as Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley will all be missed, especially in the wake of the Hayward injury. Marcus Morris is another play out indefinitely, by the way. All of a sudden, there's now a large burden of Irving to carry a lot of fresh faces.
Milwaukee has a darkhorse MVP candidate in Giannis Antetokounmpo. I was a little surprised to see the Bucks finish only 36-46 ATS last season given the move up the standings. But then again, perhaps that reflects how the market views them. They actually didn't live up to expectations last year, but with both Boston and Toronto down coming into 2017-18, I can see this group finishing second in the East. In other words, they may very well be the better team here and they're getting points against a team in a terrible spot.
Team Underground
NBA BOSTON CELTICS ‑2.5 ‑120
Ace / Line Beaters
MLB LOS ANGELES DODGERS +105
Pro Computer Gambler
Oct 18 '17, 8:05 PM in 4h
NHL | Blackhawks vs Blues
Play on: Blues -110 at 5Dimes
*PCG RAW NUMBERS are currently 864-698 +165.29 units for 2017 season
The Blues are 10-4 ON since Mar 10, 2017 at home
The Blues are 410-323 ON since Jan 03, 2009
The Blues are 15-4 ON since Mar 05, 2017 as a favorite
Sal Michaels
Oct 18 '17, 10:05 PM in 6h
NBA | Blazers vs Suns
Play on: Suns +2 -115 at Bovada
Free Play on Suns +2 -115
Teddy Covers
Oct 18 '17, 10:05 PM in 6h
NBA | Rockets vs Kings
Play on: OVER 218 -110
Take Houston – Sacramento OVER (#719-720)
Teddy delivered a perfect Sunday NFL Sweep for himself & his clients and cashed w' the Titans on Monday Night, now hitting 63% through the first six weeks of 2017. Plus, Teddy's riding an 80% MLB Playoff hot streak into Wednesday! Go for the 3-0 MLB/NBA sweep tonight!
It’s not hard to make a case for the Houston Rockets to fly Over the total against any other uptempo team, especially an uptempo team that isn’t ready to play much defense here in Game 1. Houston isn’t going to slow down their pace without Chris Paul on the floor this evening – heck, they are likely to play faster without their aging point guard with a knee injury. We know what the Rockets want to do – push the tempo and launch a barrage of three pointers, their winning formula in Golden State last night. And there’s no reason to expect the rebuilt Kings to get out and defend well in their season debut.
Sacramento is expected to play even faster this year than last. They’ll have their prime offseason acquisition -- point guard George Hill -- in the lineup this evening; a major upgrade over last year at the point. Rookie wing De’Aaron Fox, talking about what he expects after spending the preseason learning head coach Dave Joerger’s style: "We're young, but we have a few veterans. At the end of the day, we're gonna run a lot. We're extremely young team, fast, and want to get up court.” Take the Over.
Primetime Sports Picks
MLB Cubs -110
National Sports Service
NBA Pacers -3.5
Profit On Sports
NBA Memphis -2.5
Insider Sports Report
MLB Astros -115
Wolfman Wins
MLB Cubs -110
Top Rank Sports Picks
NBA Utah -2
Elite Sports Picks
NBA Miami under 206
Monster Sports Picks
NHL Chicago over 5.5