Wednesday 3/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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03-11-2024, 08:59 PM
Can'tPickAWinner

Wednesday 3/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #7

Picks Notes

#8 Louisiana Liberty Think she has a little appeal at a midrange price in a spot where there are a couple of forward players lined up who might produce an honest pace. Capable of better.

#4 Guitar Solo She's the one to beat while cutting back off the Delta route dud, and she's probably the controlling pace from this draw. Dangerous on the engine, but I wonder if she'll get any breathers.

#1 Freeburn Speed has shown a nice little pressing gear that might help her relax just a touch in the early going, but she takes the worst of the draw with Guitar Solo further outside and likely to be in her face from the start.

Race Summary Louisiana Liberty's ceiling might not be as high as some of the others in here, but she's better than she showed in the clunker last time out and might be moving well late.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

Picks Notes

#3 Baltimore Heart Regular readers in this space are probably sick of hearing about this guy, but I really think there is something here after three races with excuses. Toss the dirt debut along with the second try in which he totally blew the break, rushed up with sharp pace, and then folded, and you're left with a guy who might be just a good break away from graduating. He was again away slowly last out and came through from off the pace with a bold move before going flat in the final yards. I'm all in -- he'll put it all together today.

#7 Hero Worship He just missed in a decent race last time out when getting on the turf for the first time, but I'm guessing the price will get on the short side in a race that doesn't appear to have a ton of depth.

#8 Lucchesi Think he might be something more like a miler down the road, but he has been working regularly ahead of this and has turned in a few quick drills. Get a look at him.

Race Summary Baltimore Heart has shown flashes of ability -- namely his pace and ability to accelerate -- but hasn't been able to overcome his own troubles yet. That last one was a really encouraging effort, and a clean break would likely leave him right up on the splits in a race without a ton of pace. Think he's a handful today.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

Picks Notes

#1 Bitsy's Star He took a nice step forward when getting in at this level for the first time, and he might find a decent spot to tuck in just behind the pace. Wonder if he can track on the fence and slip through at the turn in.

#5 Gumball He ran well in the debut when tracking the pace and staying on for a piece, and a similar kind of run would leave him in a really good spot turning for home. In the mix.

#9 Matzoh Ball Expected better from him last time out when getting in for a tag for the first time, but they'll cut the price again after that dull run. Tough call, but he wouldn't surprise.

Race Summary Bitsy's Star has some appeal after signs of life at this level last out, and he might still have another modest move forward in him.

Picks	Notes
#8 Louisiana Liberty	Think she has a little appeal at a midrange price in a spot where there are a couple of forward players lined up who might produce an honest pace. Capable of better.
#4 Guitar Solo	She's the one to beat while cutting back off the Delta route dud, and she's probably the controlling pace from this draw. Dangerous on the engine, but I wonder if she'll get any breathers.
#1 Freeburn	Speed has shown a nice little pressing gear that might help her relax just a touch in the early going, but she takes the worst of the draw with Guitar Solo further outside and likely to be in her face from the start.
Race Summary	Louisiana Liberty's ceiling might not be as high as some of the others in here, but she's better than she showed in the clunker last time out and might be moving well late.

Picks	Notes
#3 Baltimore Heart	Regular readers in this space are probably sick of hearing about this guy, but I really think there is something here after three races with excuses. Toss the dirt debut along with the second try in which he totally blew the break, rushed up with sharp pace, and then folded, and you're left with a guy who might be just a good break away from graduating. He was again away slowly last out and came through from off the pace with a bold move before going flat in the final yards. I'm all in -- he'll put it all together today.
#7 Hero Worship	He just missed in a decent race last time out when getting on the turf for the first time, but I'm guessing the price will get on the short side in a race that doesn't appear to have a ton of depth.
#8 Lucchesi	Think he might be something more like a miler down the road, but he has been working regularly ahead of this and has turned in a few quick drills. Get a look at him.
Race Summary	Baltimore Heart has shown flashes of ability -- namely his pace and ability to accelerate -- but hasn't been able to overcome his own troubles yet. That last one was a really encouraging effort, and a clean break would likely leave him right up on the splits in a race without a ton of pace. Think he's a handful today.

Picks	Notes
#1 Bitsy's Star	He took a nice step forward when getting in at this level for the first time, and he might find a decent spot to tuck in just behind the pace. Wonder if he can track on the fence and slip through at the turn in.
#5 Gumball	He ran well in the debut when tracking the pace and staying on for a piece, and a similar kind of run would leave him in a really good spot turning for home. In the mix.
#9 Matzoh Ball	Expected better from him last time out when getting in for a tag for the first time, but they'll cut the price again after that dull run. Tough call, but he wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary	Bitsy's Star has some appeal after signs of life at this level last out, and he might still have another modest move forward in him.

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #1

Picks Notes

#6 MI TRES POR CIENTO (3-1) Loves to win, projects ideal trip at best distance.

#7 GABE (5-1) Won at three tracks in six short sprint attempts last year.

#4 PUTTHEGLASSDOWN (15-1) Can make gimmick wagers pay with late rally.

Race Summary In a field loaded with front-end types, classy 9-year-old MI TRES POR CIENTO can sit a good stalking trip from post 6 and surpass a quarter million in 6F earnings. He overcame a sluggish start to win going away at 5-1/2F two starts ago and was passed by the trip-sitting favorite last out. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #2

Picks Notes

#5 MUSKOKA SUMMER (3-1) Exits allowance company, runs for cheapest tag yet, looks good on paper.

#2 LOVE IS STRONG (15-1) Fits okay on best, could re-awaken off the claim at a big price.

#7 BLAME CATALAYA (6-1) Ran her best race in similar spot for barn that re-claimed her.

Race Summary MUSKOKA SUMMER, wide in a pair of 6F allowances upon arrival from Woodbine, could prove best of the class droppers for a 20-percent barn with 1- to 2-month layoff types. She picks up second-leading rider Julio Hernandez and gets the call on a win and place wager and 5/2,7/ALL trifecta.

Penn National - Race #4

Picks Notes

#3 CURLIN’S DOVE (7-2) Upstaged 5 of 12 in-the-money run with a win at the expense of 3-to-5 fave.

#4 DOWSER (5-2) Seldom misses a check sprinting, often fails as the favorite, drops below claim level.

#9 BULLET ON TAP (9-2) Second on fast and sloppy tracks at this distance at Parx this year.

Race Summary CURLIN’S DOVE bounced back from a dull effort, got the jump on the odds-on favorite and held safe to end a long winless drought. She rallied for second on a sloppy track the last time she ran 5-1/2F. Bet to win and place.

Picks	Notes
#6 MI TRES POR CIENTO (3-1)	Loves to win, projects ideal trip at best distance.
#7 GABE (5-1)	Won at three tracks in six short sprint attempts last year.
#4 PUTTHEGLASSDOWN (15-1)	Can make gimmick wagers pay with late rally.
Race Summary	In a field loaded with front-end types, classy 9-year-old MI TRES POR CIENTO can sit a good stalking trip from post 6 and surpass a quarter million in 6F earnings. He overcame a sluggish start to win going away at 5-1/2F two starts ago and was passed by the trip-sitting favorite last out. Bet to win and place.

Picks	Notes
#5 MUSKOKA SUMMER (3-1)	Exits allowance company, runs for cheapest tag yet, looks good on paper.
#2 LOVE IS STRONG (15-1)	Fits okay on best, could re-awaken off the claim at a big price.
#7 BLAME CATALAYA (6-1)	Ran her best race in similar spot for barn that re-claimed her.
Race Summary	MUSKOKA SUMMER, wide in a pair of 6F allowances upon arrival from Woodbine, could prove best of the class droppers for a 20-percent barn with 1- to 2-month layoff types. She picks up second-leading rider Julio Hernandez and gets the call on a win and place wager and 5/2,7/ALL trifecta.

Picks	Notes
#3 CURLIN’S DOVE (7-2)	Upstaged 5 of 12 in-the-money run with a win at the expense of 3-to-5 fave.
#4 DOWSER (5-2)	Seldom misses a check sprinting, often fails as the favorite, drops below claim level.
#9 BULLET ON TAP (9-2)	Second on fast and sloppy tracks at this distance at Parx this year.
Race Summary	CURLIN’S DOVE bounced back from a dull effort, got the jump on the odds-on favorite and held safe to end a long winless drought. She rallied for second on a sloppy track the last time she ran 5-1/2F. Bet to win and place.