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Thursday 4/25/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Jon White: Kentucky Derby Top 10, Plus Preakness Future Wager
April 24, 2024 | By Jon White
The 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby is nearly here. Post positions for the 1 1/4-mile classic at Churchill Downs will be drawn this Saturday (April 27).
I will have my annual Kentucky Derby selections for Xpressbet.com next week. Meanwhile, my Top 10 for this week is below:
1. Forever Young
2. Fierceness
3. Sierra Leone
4. Catching Freedom
5. Honor Marie
6. Mystik Dan
7. Domestic Product
8. Stronghold
9. Endlessly
10. Dornoch
Regardless of what post position Forever Young gets, he is going to be my pick to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.
I learned in 2012 that it’s not a good idea to change one’s top choice due to a post position. When I’ll Have Another drew post 19 in 2012, I seriously considered going with someone else as my top pick. That’s because at that time, no horse had ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 19.
“I was not thrilled to see I’ll Have Another draw post position 19,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby. “Since the use of a starting gate in 1930, post 19 is 0 for 21, with Coax Me Chad, the runner-up in 1984, the only horse to finish second or third.”
“After I’ll Have Another drew post 19, I came very close to going instead with Daddy Nose Best as my top pick. But I’m going to stick with I’ll Have Another despite post 19. I’ve had my eye on him ever since he won Santa Anita’s Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Feb. 4 in his first start since Sept. 5.”
I’ll Have Another’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, said this after the colt drew post 19: “It’s not ideal, but it’s better than being inside. We will get to load late, so that is a plus. We’ll be outside all the speed, so we’ll probably have a good chance to get good position. If they go 46 [seconds] or 47 and change for a half [mile], I’ll feel good. That will put him in position to close strongly.”
The opening half-mile split turned out to be faster than O’Neill had hoped. Pacesetter Bodemeister zipped the first half in :45.39.
When Bodemeister had a three-length lead and was running strongly a furlong from home, it looked like the 4-1 favorite was on his way to victory. But I’ll Have Another rallied resolutely from seventh to overtake Bodemeister in deep stretch. I’ll Have Another prevailed by 1 1/2 lengths in a 15-1 upset.
On March 3 that year, I bet $100 on I’ll Have Another at 23-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
I’ll Have Another recorded a 101 Beyer in the Kentucky Derby, his best figure up to that point. He then won the Preakness Stakes two weeks later at Pimlico when credited with a 109 Beyer.
In the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, Bodemeister again set the pace. Again, he sported a three-length lead a furlong out. But again Bodemeister could not stave off the oncoming I’ll Have Another, who got up to win by a neck.
After the Preakness, I’ll Have Another was entered in the Belmont Stakes while seeking Triple Crown glory. He was installed as a 4-5 morning-line favorite in the Belmont.
However, the day before the final leg of the Triple Crown, O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam announced that I’ll Have Another not only would be scratched from the Belmont, the Flower Alley colt was being retired due to tendon injury.
Bodemeister, like I’ll Have Another, never raced again after the Preakness. You certainly can’t blame Bodemeister’s trainer, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, for regarding 2012 as one of his least-favorite years. Prior to Bodemeister’s runner-up finishes in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Baffert suffered a heart attack in Dubai prior to his trainee Game On Dude finishing 12th in the rich World Cup.
While I was glad that I kept I’ll Have Another as my top pick in the Kentucky Derby even after he drew post 19, sticking with Lookin At Lucky even though he would have to exit the starting gage from the dreaded post 1 in 2010 did not work out for me.
Super Saver, trained by 2021 Hall of Fame inductee Todd Pletcher and ridden by 2013 Hall of Fame inductee Calvin Borel, captured the 2010 Kentucky Derby as the 8-1 second betting choice in the field of 20. Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 favorite trained by Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, experienced trouble galore coming down the stretch the first time on the sloppy track.
“Lookin At Lucky broke alertly, but his troubles began immediately when Super Saver, with Borel already looking to get to the rail, came in and pushed Noble’s Promise into Lookin At Lucky, forcing Garrett Gomez to take a slight hold of him,” Steve Haskin wrote in his BloodHorse recap. Lookin At lucky “still was in good position, but several strides later, Paddy O’Prado rushed up and forced Stately Victor into Lookin At Lucky, who was bumped hard, nearly going into the rail. Gomez had to check sharply and the next thing he knew he was back in 18th.”
On YouTube, you can see for yourself what an absolutely brutal early trip Lookin At Lucky experienced after starting from post 1 (Tom Durkin has the call): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYUQhefukU4
The truth is Lookin At Lucky actually ran quite well under the circumstances to come on from all the way back in 18th and finish sixth.
Super Saver never won another race after the Kentucky Derby.
Lookin At Lucky would go on to win the Preakness (Super Saver finished eighth), Haskell Invitational and Indiana Derby, then completed his racing career by finishing fourth to Blame, the great Zenyatta and Fly Down in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
For me, what happened to Lookin At Lucky in the Kentucky Derby brought to mind Little Current’s horrendous trip in the 1974 Kentucky Derby, a race that devolved into a “demolition derby” with its record 23 starters.
Little Current subsequently won the Preakness by seven lengths and the Belmont by the same margin while on his way to a 1974 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.
Regardless of which post Forever Young draws, I can only hope that he gets a trip much more like I’ll Have Another’s than Lookin At Lucky’s.
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
One of the reasons I am picking Forever Young to win the Kentucky Derby is he has zero strikes in my Derby Strikes System.
I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes.
Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
Despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
The strikes for a number of Kentucky Derby candidates are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Dornoch
Encino
Endlessly
Forever Young
Mystik Dan
Stronghold
ONE STRIKE
Catalytic (Category 2)
Catching Freedom (Category 3)
Domestic Product (Category 3)
Fierceness (Category 4)
Honor Marie (Category 3)
Sierra Leone (Category 3)
Track Phantom (Category 4)*
Uncle Heavy (Category 3)
West Saratoga (Category 4)
TWO STRIKES
Grand Mo the First (Categories 2 and 3)
Just Steel (Categories 2 and 3)
Le Dom Bro (Categories 2 and 5)
Resilience (Categories 4 and 6)
Seize the Grey (Categories 2 and 3)
Society Man (Categories 2 and 8)
THREE STRIKES
Epic Ride (Categories 1, 2 and 4)
Just a Touch (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
T O Password (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
*Track Phantom’s only official strike is in Category 4 for not being able to improve or hold his position during the final furlong of the Louisiana Derby. Meanwhile, a horse gets a strike in Category 6 if blinkers are added or removed in a horse’s final start before the Kentucky Derby. The thinking behind this category is if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not making an equipment change so late in the game. Indications are that Track Phantom is going to have blinkers added for the Kentucky Derby. If that does happen, while Track Phantom officially is a one-strike horse, I personally will be considering him a two-strike horse because of blinkers being added to his equipment on May 4.
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
As mentioned earlier, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. Again, this is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 57 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2023, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
MY UPDATED EARLY KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS
3-1 Fierceness
7-2 Sierra Leone
8-1 Forever Young
10-1 Just a Touch
12-1 Catching Freedom
20-1 Domestic Product
20-1 Dornoch
20-1 Encino
20-1 Endlessly
20-1 Honor Marie
20-1 Just Steel
20-1 Mystik Dan
20-1 Resilience
20-1 Stronghold
20-1 Track Phantom
30-1 Catalytic
30-1 Society Man
30-1 T O Password
30-1 West Saratoga
50-1 Grand Mo the First
MY EARLY KENTUCKY OAKS ODDS
On Tuesday’s SiriusXM radio program At the Races hosted by Steve Byk, he asked me to come up with early odds for Kentucky Oaks candidates. Those odds are listed below:
4-1 Tarifa
9-2 Leslie’s Rose
5-1 Just F Y I
5-1 Thorpedo Anna
5-1 Ways and Means
10-1 Power Squeeze
10-1 Where’s My Ring
20-1 Everland
20-1 Fiona’s Magic
20-1 Lemon Muffin
20-1 Regulatory Risk
30-1 Gin Gin
30-1 Into Champagne
30-1 Tapit Jenallie
PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGER POOL 2 OPENS FRIDAY
While the attention of the racing world currently is focused on the Kentucky Derby, horseplayers should keep in mind that Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager is being offered from noon ET on Friday (April 26) until 6 p.m. ET on May 4 prior to the Run for the Roses.
Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager has a field of 31 individual horses, plus a “field” option consisting of all other 3-year-olds.
Muth, winner of the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on March 30 for trainer Bob Baffert, is listed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite for Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager.
Baffert sent out Medina Spirit to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby. However, the colt was disqualified after he tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day. Following Medina Spirit’s DQ, Churchill Downs Inc. banned Baffert from participating at any of its tracks in 2022 and 2023. The suspension then was extended through 2024, which is why Muth is not currently on the list of prospective Kentucky Derby starters. But Muth is eligible to compete in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
In my opinion, betting Muth -- or any horse, for that matter -- at low odds like 3-1 this far in advance of a race just isn’t a good idea. Too much can happen between now and race day. There are no refunds in future wagering.
Florida Derby winner Fierceness and Blue Grass Stakes victor Sierra Leone are widely expected to be the first and second wagering choices in the Kentucky Derby. Fierceness is 9-2 on the morning line for Pool 2 of the Preakness wager, while Sierra Leone is 6-1.
One horse I will be betting in Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager if he stays anywhere near his 30-1 price on the morning line is Tuscan Gold. It’s my view that, generally speaking, 30-1 is the sort or price that one should be looking at in a future wager rather than Muth’s 3-1.
Trained by Chad Brown, Tuscan Gold had a troubled trip and finished fourth when unveiled in a one-mile maiden contest at Aqueduct last Nov. 4. The winner of that race was Sierra Leone.
In Tuscan Gold’s next start, he crushed a group of Gulfstream Park maidens when he won by 6 1/4 lengths at 1 1/16 miles. The Kentucky-bred Medaglia d’Oro colt then finished a respectable third to Catching Freedom and Honor Marie in the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 23.
I sure do like Tuscan Gold’s Beyer Speed Figure pattern of 65, then 84, then 95.
Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Catalytic (60-1)
2. Catching Freedom (15-1)
3. Copper Tax (20-1)
4. Domestic Product (50-1)
5. Dornoch (40-1)
6. Encino (30-1)
7. Endlessly (50-1)
8. Epic Ride (50-1)
9. Fierceness (9-2)
10. Forever Young (15-1)
11. Grand Mo the First (50-1)
12. Honor Marie (40-1)
13. Imagination (12-1)
14. Imperial Gun (30-1)
15. Informed Patriot (20-1)
16. Just a Touch (15-1)
17. Just Steel (40-1)
18. Le Dom Bro (60-1)
19. Muth (3-1)
20. Mystik Dan (40-1)
21. Patriot Spirit (50-1)
22. Resilience (30-1)
23. Seize the Grey (50-1)
24. Sierra Leone (6-1)
25. Society Man (50-1)
26. Stronghold (30-1)
27. T O Password (60-1)
28. Track Phantom (50-1)
29. Tuscan Gold (30-1)
30. Uncle Heavy (50-1)
31. West Saratoga (50-1)
32. Field (20-1)*
*All Other 3-Year-Olds
NATIONAL HALL OF FAME ANNOUNCES CLASS OF 2024
It was announced Tuesday (April 23) that Justify, Gun Runner and jockey Joel Rosario are among the nine-member class elected for 2024 induction into the national Hall of Fame.
The induction ceremony will be held on Aug. 2 at the Fasig-Tipton sales pavilion located in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Voted into the Hall of Fame this year are Justify, who was voted 2018 Horse of the Year after sweeping the Triple Crown; Gun Runner, who was voted Horse of the Year in 2017; and Joel Rosario, who was voted a 2021 Eclipse Award as outstanding jockey.
Harry Guggenheim, Clement L. Hirsch and Joe Hirsch (no relation) have been selected for induction this year as Pillars of the Turf.
Guggenheim and Clement L. Hirsch were prominent owners, breeders and industry leaders.
The esteemed Joe Hirsch was the longtime executive columnist for the Daily Racing Form.
Jockey Abe Hawkins and racehorses Aristides and Lecomte were selected for induction this year by the Historic Review Committee.
“Hawkins was honored for his prowess as a jockey in the pre- and post-Civil War years,” Daily Racing Form’s David Grening wrote. “He was arguably the most celebrated rider in America prior to Isaac Murphy and the first Black athlete to gain national prominence.”
Hawkins, Grening added, “is most remembered for his victory aboard Lecomte, who in the Jockey Club Purse, a race conducted in multiple four-mile heats at Metairie Course in New Orleans in April 1854, handed Lexington his only defeat in his Hall of Fame career.”
Aristides won the inaugural Kentucky Derby in 1875.
I think it’s a travesty that the champion sprinter Kona Gold has been shunned again by Hall of Fame voters. Also, as I have stated countless times, I believe the champion filly Rags to Riches belongs in the Hall of Fame, but once again she didn’t get receive enough support this year to get in.
I’ve heard some people say that they think Rags to Riches didn’t race enough to get into the Hall of Fame. But Rags to Riches made more career starts than Justify, who is going into the Hall of Fame this year.
Rags to Riches made seven career starts, one more than Justify.
Some might argue that while it’s true that Justify made one start less than Rags to Riches, Justify deserves to be in the Hall of Fame because he accomplished something historic by becoming this country’s 13th Triple Crown winner.
But Rags to Riches also achieved something historic. In 2007, Rags to Riches became the first filly to win the Belmont Stakes in more than 100 years. No filly had won the Belmont since Tanya in 1905.
Despite stumbling at the start and racing wide, Rags to Riches won the Belmont by a head over Curlin, who would be voted Horse of the Year in 2007 and 2008.
For those who don’t feel that Rags to Riches did enough besides win the Belmont to merit Hall of Fame membership, I point out that she did win a total four Grade I races.
In fact, Rags to Riches won more Grade I races than Kentucky Derby winners Genuine Risk and Winning Colors. Genuine Risk and Winning Colors are in the Hall of Fame, as they should be.
Since races in this country were first graded in 1973, only five fillies have won a Triple Crown event. The number of Grade I wins for these five fillies is listed below:
5 Rachel Alexandra
4 Rags to Riches
3 Winning Colors
3 Swiss Skydiver
2 Genuine Risk
Curlin was voted into the Hall of Fame in 2014. All these years later Rags to Riches remains on the outside looking in. Inasmuch as Rags to Riches has been spurned year after year, I now can’t envision her ever getting enough thumbs up from the Hall of Fame voters.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 318 Senor Buscador (24)
2. 243 National Treasure (4)
3. 167 Idiomatic (3)
4. 158 Master of The Seas
5. 142 White Abarrio
6. 99 Saudi Crown
7. 112 Adare Manor
8. 80 First Mission
8. 80 Skippylongstocking
10. 66 Newgate
Though they did not make the Top 10, Laurel River received two first-place votes, while The Chosen Vron received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 325 Sierra Leone (22)
2. 315 Fierceness (11)
3. 230 Muth (1)
4. 191 Catching Freedom
5. 168 Stronghold
6. 110 Forever Young
7. 106 Nysos
8. 82 Resilience
9. 72 Just a Touch
10. 50 Endlessly
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #5
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #6 Sgt. Pepper |
Think he's in line for another dreamy trip as he steps up to face winners after graduating at a marathon trip last time out, and he should get the jump on some of the obvious threats from the back. |
| #9 Champagne Juan |
The honest recent form stacks up well here, and he might be in a similar spot to the top choice as they head for the final turn. Probably the one to beat. |
| #8 Miracle On Ice |
There are several more logical players in here, but he's a fairly honest grinding finisher who was only beaten a couple lengths here last year against special weight company. His form this year is pretty solid -- why can't he bring it over here at a price? |
| Race Summary |
Sgt. Pepper has turned in a couple solid efforts already this year, but he really came to life at a similar trip last time out. Don't think this step up is going to hold him back. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #11 Tarneema |
She caught a nice winner in the debut before scoring easily at second asking, and she could get a pretty nice run of things from a spying spot out of the wide draw. One of the ones. |
| #9 Style Points |
She's the one to beat while dropping out of a couple of runner-up efforts in graded company, but I'm not 100% sold that her late punch is going to be even better while adding some ground today. Won't be any surprise. |
| #5 Royal Wintour |
Wouldn't argue with anyone landing here in hopes that she'll be right up on the pace the whole way. She hasn't done much wrong through two starts and may still have some upside. Interesting. |
| Race Summary |
Tarneema took a nice step forward in her second career start, and I'm hoping a little added ground will help her take another move in the right direction today. Presence of Style Points should help keep the price playable enough. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #1 Day Dawning |
Take a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this, but she has turned in some snappy works here in advance of this and isn't meeting a ton of proven form on paper. |
| #2 Ain't No Other |
There might be something better here at second asking, as she only went evenly over the synthetic at Turfway last month and might like it better here with that race under her belt. Price intrigue. |
| #8 Conquest Dancer |
Interested in both the Catalano players in here, as this one goes first out with Gaffalione up, and she appears to have been working fine over the local footing. |
| Race Summary |
Day Dawning debuts in a spot without much punch, and she can be tough here if she's able to relax just a touch behind some speed players. |
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #1
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #1 NO NAME DUDE (6-1) |
Idle 7 weeks since claim, good fit on best, barn does well with these types. |
| #2 ADIOS ASHER (8-5) |
Finished second in 4 of last 7 starts, remains hot at the claim box. |
| #4 CHRISTENSEN (3-1) |
In top form but one of only two entrants eligible under the nw/3 condition. |
| Race Summary |
NO NAME DUDE had trouble in his last two starts, has some big numbers to run back to and is in the right barn to re-awaken off the claim. He’s a $100k earner at Gulfstream despite an 0-7 mark at the distance. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-4 exacta box. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #2 TINTA ROJA (4-1) |
Awakened on turf, tired in stretch, can parlay speed into win at shorter distance. |
| #5 SUMMER IN TOGA (8-1) |
Barn excels with ‘first turf’ angle; dam won 7F MSW dirt race in debut. |
| #6 PARALLEL (8-5) |
Perfect 7-for-7 in the money but burning a lot of money along the way. |
| Race Summary |
TINTA ROJA showed her true colors when switched to turf for her second start. She set a strong pace at one mile and gave way in mid-stretch after two of the favorites passed by. She shortens up to 7-1/2F in a field that lacks quality speed. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-6 exacta box. |
| Picks |
Notes |
|---|
| #4 PARAKEET (9-5) |
Second from on and off the pace since gelded, rates slight edge. |
| #5 RED ABARRIO (8-1) |
Gets pace to rally into, adds value to gimmick wager tickets. |
| #10 DEVIL’S PLAYGROUND ( |
Faltered on lead in MSW routes, rallied for share in both short sprints. |
| Race Summary |
PARAKEET floated 6-wide at the top of the stretch when second two starts back at this level. He dueled to the stretch and held second as the odds-on favorite last out for a higher claiming tag. His versatility comes in handy in this field. Bet to win and place. |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE
| Belterra Park - Race 1 |
Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double 50 cent Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5) |
| Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 68 • Purse: $24,200 • Post: 12:15 |
| FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SAMURAI WAY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SAMURAI WAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PARTY POOPER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. |
2 |
SAMURAI WAY |
4/1 |
6/5 |
3 |
PARTY POOPER |
7/2 |
7/1 |
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
2 |
SAMURAI WAY |
2 |
4/1 |
Front-runner |
51 |
47 |
53.1 |
36.8 |
31.3 |
3 |
PARTY POOPER |
3 |
7/2 |
Alternator/Stalker |
0 |
0 |
49.0 |
41.8 |
38.3 |
1 |
I'M HIM |
1 |
3/1 |
Alternator/Stalker |
0 |
0 |
42.7 |
37.0 |
34.0 |
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race ParkPURCHASE
| Sam Houston Race Park - Race 6 |
WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 6-7) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Pick 5 (Races 6 thru 10) |
| Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 60 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 9:00P |
| QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. |
| Contenders |
Race Analysis |
| P# |
Horse |
Morn
Line |
Accept
Odds |
|
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MIRACLE B KNOCKOUT: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. FIFTYTOASTSTOSCAMPER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FLASHPOINT DASH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ran ks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. |
6 |
MIRACLE B KNOCKOUT |
4/5 |
4/1 |
1 |
FIFTYTOASTSTOSCAMPER |
3/1 |
9/2 |
10 |
FLASHPOINT DASH |
20/1 |
8/1 |
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| P# |
Horse (In Running Style Order) |
Post |
Morn
Line |
Running Style |
Good
Class |
Good
Speed |
Early Figure |
Finish Figure |
Platinum
Figure |
1 |
FIFTYTOASTSTOSCAMPER |
1 |
3/1 |
Slow |
73 |
72 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2 |
CANDY BAR SA |
2 |
6/1 |
Fast |
71 |
55 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4 |
FREDONIA SENATOR |
4 |
10/1 |
Average/Trouble-prone |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5 |
TUSK |
5 |
30/1 |
Slow |
70 |
56 |
6.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6 |
MIRACLE B KNOCKOUT |
6 |
4/5 |
Fast |
75 |
67 |
2.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7 |
ACCENTONAFARMBABE AW |
7 |
20/1 |
Slow |
0 |
0 |
7.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8 |
VPP YAWLS CARTEL |
8 |
50/1 |
Average |
0 |
0 |
5.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9 |
LOTA TERESA |
9 |
30/1 |
Average |
61 |
45 |
5.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
10 |
FLASHPOINT DASH |
10 |
20/1 |
Average |
74 |
62 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Keeneland - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $47,000 Class Rating: 85
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#1 TRAP LINE (ML=8/1)
#5 SURFACE TO AIR (ML=3/1)
#6 MAIN LINE CIPHER (ML=5/2)
TRAP LINE - This colt's last speed rating is strong enough to score here, I'll wager on him back again this time out. SURFACE TO AIR - Horse's last race was at Churchill Downs in a race with a class figure of 96. Dropping drastically in class rating this time around puts him in a solid position right here in this race. Just look at his recent speed fig, 77. That one fits well in this group. This colt is most certainly on the improve with speed ratings of 70, 74, 77 last 3 out. This animal is in the top spot in earnings per start. He looks solid in today's race. MAIN LINE CIPHER - That recent bullet 46.4 work shows that this colt is ready for a top performance today. Dropping in Equibase class figure points from his Feb 21st race at Gulfstream Park. Based on that element, I will give this horse the advantage. Colt will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 TRUE FAITH (ML=9/5),
TRUE FAITH - This less than sharp equine showed very liitle last time finishing eighth. Don't expect any betterment today. Finished eighth in his most recent performance with a run-of-the-mill speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
Bet on #1 TRAP LINE to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Box [1,5] Box [1,6] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6 |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
Skip |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles TownPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 70
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 3 SHOOT THE BREEZE 8/5
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# 7 SEA OF TRANQUILITY 10/1
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# 4 BRADLEY DO RIGHT 7/2
|
My selection in this contest is SHOOT THE BREEZE. Must be used in the exotic bets. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good angle. This one ranks at the top in this lot. Appears to have a very strong class edge based on the recent company kept. SEA OF TRANQUILITY - Contreras has a very solid winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Should be given a chance - I like the figures from the last contest. BRADLEY DO RIGHT - Vaunts sound speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group of horses. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last contest.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club AnalystsPURCHASE
Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - Post: 8:13pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 92
Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg
#4 GIRL AFRAID (ML=6/1)
#3 FORGOTTEN FORTUNE (ML=5/2)
#2 RAIN (ML=15/1)
GIRL AFRAID - This thoroughbred has shown the ability to win on different racing tracks. Making the move from Fair Grounds for today's event, I have to believe she's ready to run. Any early speed horse that is starting from the inside has a shot on this track. Should jump out of the gate and get good position versus this bunch. The 87 latest race speed rating looks sound on paper. FORGOTTEN FORTUNE - Stokes was aboard this filly last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This filly is a gem of consistency, almost always in the top three. RAIN - Barrera should be able to place this mare right behind the leaders. Ideally, Barrera will rate behind the leaders, then pounce on the turn. You probably want to discount that last clash at Fair Grounds on the mud where she finished off the board. Should do well in this race without a sloppy track.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SWEET ALYSSA (ML=8/5), #7 IM SINGLED UP (ML=5/1),
SWEET ALYSSA - Tough to bet on any entrant to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance. This filly hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance contests. I find it hard to bet on her in this race. IM SINGLED UP - 5/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any horse in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event of late.
| STRAIGHT WAGERS: |
Put your money on #4 GIRL AFRAID on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more |
| EXACTA WAGERS: |
Box [2,3,4] |
TRIFECTA WAGERS: |
Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6 |
| SUPERFECTA WAGERS: |
None |
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 89
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STATE BRED ALLOWANCE. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. STARTER RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED
| RECOMMENDED CHOICES |
| |
# 3 BEGANINGREENPOINT 20/1
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# 4 NO DELIBERATION 7/2
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# 7 CANTARO 5/2
|
BEGANINGREENPOINT is tough to overlook as the wager in here and is a very good value wager given the line. The Equibase Speed Figure of 92 from his latest affair looks decent in here. CANTARO - Is worth taking a close look at and may be a bet - strong speed figures (79 average) at today's distance and surface lately. With a decent 89 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race.
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Teddy C.
3% Orlando Magic (-2.5)
