UFC 118 Penn-Edgar 2 Toney-Couture

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Originally Posted by zY|

I think your point is good in that BJ may have problems securing the takedown. But once he's on top, unless Frankie is able to scramble up immediately, he's going to have big problems. BJ Penn has the best guard passing and mount/back control in all of MMA. If Penn ever got on top of even GSP it wouldn't be good.

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Yeah, if Penn can get a good solid takedown that Edgar can't get out of, then Edgar's in trouble. And I do think Penn should be a clear favorite to win this fight. But even at a line of -325 I can't get on Penn for this one. Honestly, I would probably need -250 or better, because I am not OVERLY confident that Penn will dominate this one. It's just like I said before, aside from the hiccup with the Maynard fight, Edgar keeps on surprising and it's hard to bet against that.

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Originally Posted by zY|

I think it's a really compelling matchup (much like the Shogun/Machida rematch Saturday), in that one guy utilized an effective strategy, so now we have to see whether the other guy can make adjustments.

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Agreed. I'm looking forward to this one.

If Penn even gets into a scramble that lasts more than a couple seconds, he will probably submit Edgar. But I doubt BJ can take Edgar down. I expect BJ's game plan to just be to hit him harder this time.

I'm glad to see you guys saying this about the Edgar / Penn grappling situation - I was thinking the same thing. After the first fight, everyone was complaining that Penn "made a bad decision" in not taking Edgar down late in the fight, as if he could have done it easily if he wanted to. Of course, Penn would have a huge bjj advantage on the ground, but his takedowns have never been great and he might have to work pretty hard to get a takedown - work that would translate into eating quite a few more punches that could sway the judges against him in a close round.

I see a great amount of value on Randy @-460 right now. I just don't want to tie money up for over 3 months.

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Originally Posted by Svino

I'm glad to see you guys saying this about the Edgar / Penn grappling situation - I was thinking the same thing. After the first fight, everyone was complaining that Penn "made a bad decision" in not taking Edgar down late in the fight, as if he could have done it easily if he wanted to. Of course, Penn would have a huge bjj advantage on the ground, but his takedowns have never been great and he might have to work pretty hard to get a takedown - work that would translate into eating quite a few more punches that could sway the judges against him in a close round.

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I was upset at BJ's decision to try to stand up after Edgar willingly took him down a couple of times. BJ has a great guard and great armdrags to the back from guard. You are a world champion grappler and you don't confidence you can sweep or submit a purple belt from guard? If Edgar was crazy enough to willingly go there, I don't understand why BJ was like "no, I think I would rather standup again where I am close to even with you."

I think it was more a matter of control for BJ. He hadn't decided it was time to go to the ground, and thus he wanted to negate the takedowns by popping back up within 5-7 seconds so the judges wouldn't award Edgar a round based on a takedown.

no opinion on Maynard-Kenflo at the moment need to watch alot of tape on these two

I love the odds but you know the saying.....first time shame on you second time shame on me

I'll take Kenflo over Maynard or Frankie

From SI.com Josh Gross

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Heard conflicting things today re: weight for Couture-Toney. There's talk of a catchweight at 220, but I'm also told it will be heavyweight

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Marcus Davis vs. Nate Diaz added

Interesting. If either guy's a significant dog then I'd probably take him.

Davis, for all his faults, is a solid fighter at the end of the day. And Diaz looked good against Markham. In fact, I think he should just stay at WW.

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Originally Posted by Luke

From SI.com Josh Gross

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Heard conflicting things today re: weight for Couture-Toney. There's talk of a catchweight at 220, but I'm also told it will be heavyweight

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Ya... Cause 220 IS Heavyweight technically.

Where do you guys think BJ holds value?

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Originally Posted by poopoo333

Where do you guys think BJ holds value?

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I'm feeling pretty conservative on this one so I wouldn't take him until -200. But the truth is that he could very well hold value right now. Or the truth could be that Edgar will come out and once again be one step ahead, and in that case BJ never holds value.

It's hard to say, I think.

I am with SPX, I am not going to bet on BJ as a big favorite against a guy that just beat him 2 months ago. In all reality, Edgar should be the favorite. He has fewer losses, and was never hurt in the last fight. And he showed he could take BJ down.

That said, BJ is gonna win.

If I knew that the Penn / Edgar fight would be a replay of the last one, I'd probably take Penn out to about -230, since I think he takes that decision 70% of the time.

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Originally Posted by Svino

If I knew that the Penn / Edgar fight would be a replay of the last one, I'd probably take Penn out to about -230, since I think he takes that decision 70% of the time.

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Hmm. . .

That's some crazy mathematical voodoo right there.

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Originally Posted by SPX

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Originally Posted by Svino

If I knew that the Penn / Edgar fight would be a replay of the last one, I'd probably take Penn out to about -230, since I think he takes that decision 70% of the time.

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Hmm. . .

That's some crazy mathematical voodoo right there.

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Well if I'd said I'd take it out to -233.3333333, someone would have accused me of being over-specific.

Let me also add that I also think that (compared to the last one) the fight is more likely to swing in favor of Penn. The structure of the first fight was perfect for Edgar - the less close grappling or punishing contact, the better for the hummingbird. Obviously, Edgar had something to do with that, but I'm feeling like any change at all has to go against him. If more of the fight happens on the ground or in a clinch, it should favor Penn. Long story short - I think the odds are decent and I doubt I'll bet on the fight.

It is possible that Edgar can use a little bit more top control if BJ decides to work from his back this time. There is a good chance he gets submited, but BJ doesn't really submit guys from guard. So he could do a little GSP/Penn 1 action and take a decision that way too.

Florian or Maynard?