UFC 151

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08-20-2012, 11:18 PM
MMA_scientist

Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...
08-20-2012, 11:20 PM
poopoo333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleveland

Best I can offer is to suggest a look at the Wiman fight. Wiman was on a surge having beaten Nelson, Danzig and C. Miller.

Siver was able to keep him off (Wiman was 5/16 in attempts) and even took him down. He also isn't against fighting to win, which I love if you're in there with a brawler.

He hurt G-sot early so that has to be taken into account, but George couldn't even seem to touch him.

See, when I first watched Siver/Wiman (I had a decent sized bet on Wiman), I could not believe the decision. I really thought Wiman won without being biased (I even watched it again). I'll watch it within the next couple days again.

And in the G-Sot fight, after the first round, G Sot kept it pretty close in the striking but Siver clearly had a slight edge. I think one of the judges even had it 30-28 for Siver
08-20-2012, 11:21 PM
poopoo333

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMA_scientist

Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...

I'm not gonna copy/paste but I plan on posting my little breakdowns on each fight.

And you should do the work too, then we can see where we are missing things and stuff.
08-20-2012, 11:23 PM
MMA_scientist

Poopoo, that sounds like a lot of work. Why would you listen to anyone else right now anyway, youre on fire lately
08-20-2012, 11:24 PM
Cleveland

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMA_scientist

a unit is a percentage of your betting bankroll, generally. Usually, serious bettors have a bankroll they build up, which is dedicated to only gambling. Some people just use a static amount, like $100 and don't havea dedicated bankroll. Usually a unit is somewhere between 1% (conservative) and 5% (aggressive) of the overall bankroll. So if you have $1000 to play with, most people would be using a unit of about $20-50. If you have high confidence, you bet more units, so 5u would be $100 if using a 2% unit.
.

Awesome, thank you both.

So I started with $50 and have been typically doing $5 at a time (I put $20 on my SF parlay this weekend because I was really sold). I'm close to $120 up after two events.

The whole point for me in this was to really have some fun but also turn my obsession (MMA) into maybe some free money.

I'm not always a favourites guy either. I already have a straight up bet on Belcher and got E. Silva and Hendricks at even for an upcoming parlay.

I expect to take a few losses, but as I've held off this long on betting, I'm still steadfast in not letting lines get me. I also won't bet on fighters I'm a fan of.
08-20-2012, 11:27 PM
poopoo333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleveland

got E. Silva

Fuck you.

Banned.
08-20-2012, 11:30 PM
Cleveland

Quote:

Originally Posted by poopoo333

See, when I first watched Siver/Wiman (I had a decent sized bet on Wiman), I could not believe the decision. I really thought Wiman won without being biased (I even watched it again). I'll watch it within the next couple days again.

And in the G-Sot fight, after the first round, G Sot kept it pretty close in the striking but Siver clearly had a slight edge. I think one of the judges even had it 30-28 for Siver

I felt Siver was more effective through the fight, I was actually shocked at how many people disputed the fight. As per the earlier comment, unsuccessful grappling also really seems to effect judging negatively. I also liked that Siver seemed to be able to get back up without much trouble and stayed off the choke.

Yup, agree. The g-sot fight really opened my eyes, Siver looked incredible.

I know the weight cut hurt Kenny, but Siver was just as effective against Nunes. I really think he will make a splash at 145 before he inevitably gets crushed by Aldo or Mendes.
08-20-2012, 11:31 PM
MMA_scientist

With that amount at stake, it is not that important... but it helps everyone else keep track of your actual handicapping ability, rather than focus on your lunch montey bankroll. It doesnt y matow you divide it, but helps us keep track of how your doing, so i can decide if i should just tail you instead of following my own losing instincts.
08-20-2012, 11:31 PM
Cleveland

Quote:

Originally Posted by poopoo333

Fuck you.

Banned.

I take it this a joke I'm not in on...

Is there a dislike for Erick on these boards or is this for the Brennamen fight?
08-20-2012, 11:32 PM
poopoo333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleveland

I take it this a joke I'm not in on...

Is there a dislike for Erick on these boards or is this for the Brennamen fight?

Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.
08-20-2012, 11:33 PM
MMA_scientist

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleveland

Yup, agree. The g-sot fight really opened my eyes, Siver looked incredible.
es.

I dont think he is saying what you are saying... 30-28 means there was a 10-10 rd
08-20-2012, 11:35 PM
MMA_scientist

Quote:

Originally Posted by poopoo333

Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.

We generally run everyone off with our bad personalities. I was trying something new and just hoping zak's new recruits didnt read anything in ot or sny old thread
08-20-2012, 11:39 PM
Cleveland

Quote:

Originally Posted by poopoo333

Naw, I just am going to bet on Fitch.

I figured we were being very not-IWS like to you and everybody gets fucked with, so I had to welcome you to what IWS is really like.

I feel included!

I will just give my two cents.

The Penn fight told me the new leaner Fitch (apparently doesn't cut much weight now) has lost the edge his complete lack of athleticism was hiding.

Erick showed no issue with keeping Brennaman off and that guy can light up anyone on the feet. There's more than enough tape out there on Fitch at this point and Erick has gotten better with every fight. I also don't know how hungry a guy like Fitch can be knowing he will literally never get back to a title shot.
08-20-2012, 11:42 PM
poopoo333

Cleveland, how old are you?
08-21-2012, 07:59 AM
Cleveland

25
08-21-2012, 08:16 AM
SPX

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleveland

I wouldn't put a ton of stake into the Makdessi fight, I love the kid but his wrestling was unforgivably bad.

I'm certainly not going to argue that Makdessi is any kind of great wrestler, but I really think this was a case of Hallman really bringing his A game. Makdessi's wrestling has been fine in all his other UFC fights. It's not like he has a history of getting taken down easily by just anyone.
08-21-2012, 11:08 AM
MMA_scientist

I didn't realize Hieron already fought and beat Ellenberger. Poopoo... video. Make it happen.
08-21-2012, 11:26 AM
poopoo333

Can't find the vid
08-21-2012, 11:51 AM
SPX

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMA_scientist

You will lose 5 bets in a row on favorites at some point, it will happen. The only way to ride that out is right sizing your bets.

That's the truth. It's been a while since I last had a really bad swing, but I can usually count on at least one a year. I remember I once went from something like 15u ahead to 15u in the hole for the year in like a month and a half. It was gay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMA_scientist

I think it is time for someone to link to SPX's betting primer.

Fuck yeah! You can't find it online, though. But I do have it in a Word doc.

Though this is easier:

http://mmajunkie.com/news/1500/where...et-mma-now.mma
08-21-2012, 11:54 AM
SPX

Quote:

Originally Posted by poopoo333

It came out yesterday. Ellenberger actually opened at -215. And yeah I have noticed. It's fucking annoying because you were one of the members that would do write ups and break shit down. Now it's just me, edman (who posts a sentence in each of 10 straight posts. JK EDMAN I LUV U), and the new guy Cleveland who do that.

Maybe I'll start doing breakdowns again. I stopped because no one seemed to give a shit. I wasn't going to waste my time if no one was going to respond.

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