Breeders cup 2017

Del Mar full card analysis for Breeders’ Cup Saturday (11-4-17)
By Jarrod Horak (therunawayhorse.com, todaysracingdigest.com, winninghorsepicks.com) Weather: Mostly Sunny. High 69. DMR Best Bets (races 3, 5, 8, 10)
DMR Pick 5, Pick 6, and Pick 4 Spread Tickets included in .pdf file
DMR 1 (G2 Goldikova, 8T) #1 ON LEAVE (9-2) earned a quality number in the All Along at LRL Sept 16 (141 Final) and is a neck shy of a perfect 4-for-4 record at this distance. A ground saving stalking trip under Ortiz Jr. is expected. #11 Aljazzi (6-1) was 2nd in an Ascot Group 2 June 21, easily won a Group 3 Sept 2, and was in too deep in a Group 1 Oct 7. Her last three wins were at 8f. #12 Mrs McDougal (8-1) keeps burning me in SoCal and maybe reconnecting with her winning maiden pilot Castellano will help. I am still waiting for her to rediscover her sharp 2016 form and I would like to see her sit back and make a run this time. #10 Madame Stripes (8-1) fired Trifecta shots in her last eight but finishes underneath more often than not. She won the restricted Osunitas at DMR July 21 (137 Final). #9 Majestic Heat (12-1) sports three local turf wins including back-to- back renewals of the Solana Beach for CA-breds under today’s rider Prat. #7 Kitten’s Roar (5-1) seems well spotted but appears to move up with some give in the ground and the turf will be firm. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Trifecta 1-7-9-11-12/10/1-7-9-11- 12, Trifecta 1-7-9-11-12/1-7-9-11-12/10, 50 cent Pick Five 1/1-2-6/1-3/7-9-13/1-3-6 ($27)
DMR 2 (Golden State Juvenile, 7f) #2 NIGHT AT THE OPERA (3-1) overcame greenness to rally for a debut maiden sprint win at GG Aug 27 and stretched out, switched to dirt, and finished 2nd in the Oak Tree Juvenile Sept 30 (123 Final). He is back in a sprint for Hollendorfer and fired a GG bullet for this Oct 17. #6 Bookies Luck (7-2) won 2 of his last 3 and easily beat today’s favorite #1 Smokem (5-2) in the local I’m Smokin Sept 1 (129 Final). He is a pace factor under Kent D (5-for-9 w/Bonde). The latter, a CA-bred son of Union Rags, fired Exacta shots in all four starts (3 at DMR) and owns competitive numbers. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-6, Exacta 1-6/2, 50 cent Pick Four 1-2-6/1-3-4-5-10/3-7-8-9-12-13/3 ($45)
DMR 3 (Juvenile Turf Sprint, 5T) #3 COUNT ALEXANDER (6-1) might appreciate this shorter trip after a 4th in the G2 Summer (131 Final) and a 2nd in the Zuma Beach (134 Final). He easily graduated in his 6f turf sprint debut at WO Aug 27 (134 Final). #1 Fairyland (5-1) is the inside speed exiting a close-up 2nd in a similar SAR turf sprint stakes event (153 Pace + 126 Final). #10 March X Press (7-2) rallied to win her first two turf sprints (128, Final Aug 16) before an even 4th in the G1 Natalma (2-3 finishers next out stakes winners). She should be finishing under Castellano. #5 Sound and Silence (8-1) is a sharp 4-time overseas turf sprint winner (won Group 3 Sept 20) and Buick has booted him home twice. #4 El Dulce (9-2) won his turf sprint bow at SAR July 29, finished 2nd in the mud Aug 18, and weakened late in the G2 Summer at one mile (129 Final). He reconnects with winning rider Johnny V and should like this abbreviated turf sprint. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/1-4-5- 10, Exacta 1-4-5-10/3
DMR 4 (G1 BC Juvenile Fillies, 8.5f) #13 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (4-1) romped in her bow, got caught up in a speed duel from the rail in the G1 Spinaway second time out, and settled into a stalking rhythm and rebounded nicely in the G1 Frizette (134 Final). She is bred to handle two turns and probably won’t go off as the favorite for the first time. #7 Moonshine Memories (7-2) is 3-for-3 (2-for-2 at DMR) and handled two turns with a solid stalk and pounce win in the G1 Chandelier (134 Final). Her CPR + Final Ratings improved in each outing and the $650k purchase should be forwardly placed under Prat. #9 Alluring Star (6-1) went all the way in her DMR sprint bow and set the pace and held the place in the Chandelier. #8 Piedi Bianchi (15-1) stalked and finished in the Top 3 in all four starts including back-to-back Grade 1 placings in the Del Mar Debutante and Chandelier.
#12 Caledonia Road (15-1) won her SAR debut in the slop and rallied to finish a clear 2nd in the Frizette. She can be used in the exotics. #3 Princess Warrior (12-1) won her dirt sprint bow at CD and followed that up with a rallying 2nd as the favorite in the Alcibiades. #11 Wonder Gadot (8-1) easily won 2 of her 3 WO starts (1st in G3 Mazarine Oct 7) and was a close-up 3rd in the other one. The $325k purchase was the favorite in all three starts and won an extended turf sprint and an all-weather route. She is bred to handle dirt. #5 Blonde Bomber (20-1) earned much better numbers in back-to-back romping GP wins on Sept 2 and Sept 30. #1 Heavenly Love (9-2) was up for 3rd in her GP debut at 5f, rolled by 5 lengths in a maiden turf sprint at KD Sept 7, and cruised again in the G1 Alcibiades Oct 6. G1 Spinaway runner-up #10 Maya Malibu (20-1) adds blinkers after a distant 3rd in the Frizette. #6 Stainless (20-1) rallied from 13th to get up for place in the grassy G3 Jessamine Oct 11. #4 Gio Game (15-1) was competitive in all three outings and switched back to dirt and romped by 9 lengths in a KEE dirt route Oct 6. #2 Tell Your Mama (30-1) is a maiden after two starts and her best finish was a distant 3rd of 12 in a KEE dirt sprint Oct 13. Hess Jr. has her now. THE PLAYS: #13to win, Exacta 13/7-9, Exacta 7-9/13, Trifecta 7-9-13/3-7-8-9-12-13/3-7-8-9-12-13, Superfecta 13/3- 8/3-8/ALL, Superfecta 13/3-8/ALL/3-8, Superfecta 13/ALL/3-8/3-8
DMR 5 (G1 BC Turf Sprint, 5T) #3 LADY AURELIA (5-2) is a nose away from a perfect 4-for-4 record at this distance and she was sharp in back-to-back Group 1 tries in GB. The fresh filly easily won both of her US starts at KEE (149 Final April 15) and I like her early/pressing versatility. Johnny V has ridden her twice and she easily won both times. #6 Marsha (7-2) is consistent and right there with Lady Aurelia on her best day. She likes to sit in the middle of the pack and make a run. #1 Disco Partner (9- 2) is 4-for-5 this year with his lone setback a 4th on yielding ground in the G1 Fourstardave at one mile. He can stalk or close. #8 Cotai Glory (20-1) was a decent 2nd in the G2 Nearctic at WO even though 6f is not his best distance. The 5f specialist was beaten by Lady Aurelia and Marsha twice in Group 1 overseas turf sprints at this trip earlier this year. #2 Holding Gold (15-1) has run well in 3 of 5 turf sprints this year and will try to get involved late. #5 Washington DC (20-1) finished 1-2 in 7 of 12 overseas turf sprint starts at this distance but was no match for Lady Aurelia and Marsha in his last two Group 1 tries. He did run Marsha to a neck May 6. #11 Bucchero (12-1) is sharp now after three straight solid efforts including a turf sprint upset in the G2 Woodford. The IN-bred should show speed. #10 Hogy (12-1) is still holding his form at age eight and usually makes a decent late run at this distance. #7 Richard’s Boy (10-1) has had a full dance card this year from the US to Dubai and back again. He likes this distance and owns nice early/pressing speed but his recent numbers have been lower than his best. #12 Pure Sensation (20-1) has been sensational at Parx this year but nowhere else. He is versatile and 6-for-10 at this distance. #9 Mongolian Saturday (20-1) is 0-for-7 this year (4 minor awards) and his numbers are not as good as the top contenders. #4 Stormy Liberty

(12-1) won four straight downhill sprints to begin 2017 before losing his way in a BEL turf sprint June 10. This is his first attempt at 5f on turf. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/1-6-8, Exacta 1-6-8/3, Trifecta 3-6/1-2-3-6-8/1-2-3-6-8, Superfecta 3/2-8/2-8/ALL, Superfecta 3/2-8/ALL/2-8, Superfecta 3/ALL/2-8/2-8, 50 cent Pick Four 1-2-3-6-8/11-12/1-8-9/2-8 ($30)
DMR 6 (G1 BC F&M Sprint, 7f) #12 SKYE DIAMONDS (5-1) has been an outstanding $40k claim for Spawr. She fired Exacta shots in her last 9 (3 stakes wins) and is 2-for-2 at DMR. I love her tactical speed and she owns competitive numbers (144, 146, 143, 144 Finals last four). #11 Unique Bella (9-5) was 2nd to Chalon as the heavy favorite in her 2016 bow and easily won all five outings since including graded sprint wins in her last four (147 Final Oct 8). #8 Constellation (15-1) finished 1-2 in her last six including runner-up finishes in all four starts this year. Baffert has her now and she was 2nd in the G3 Rancho Bernardo at DMR Aug 13 (140 Final). #2 Paulassilverlining (8-1) had her 4-race stakes win streak snapped in a below par 5th of 7 in the G1 Ballerina Aug 26. She was 3rd at 15-1 in this event in 2016. #9 Finley’sluckycharm (6-1) has captured 7 of her last 9 with two 2nds and she showed the ability to rate and finish in Keeneland’s G2 TCA at 6f Oct 7. #7 By the Moon (12-1) was an okay 5th in this event at 7-1 last year and since that effort she has fired Trifecta shots in all six outings including a trio of graded wins (won G1 Ballerina Aug 26). #1 Carina Mia (12-1) was 9th as the beaten favorite in this race as a 3-year-old in 2016. She moved to the Brown barn and finished in the Top 3 in her last three outings. #4 Finest City (12-1) scored an 8-1 upset in this event last year and she likes DMR (3-2-1-0) but has not been up to par in her last pair. #10 Highway Star (15-1) is a neck away from a perfect 4-for-4 record at this distance and the consistent NY-bred tries to take her act on the road. #3 Curlin’s Approval (20-1) has won 5 of her last 10 but all of those wins were at GP and she was unplaced in her last three graded attempts away from that venue. #14 Ami’s Mesa (20-1) won her last four all-weather starts (3 graded wins) and this is her first attempt on regular dirt. #5 Bar of Gold (30-1) can run on anything and the NY-bred 5-year-old mare has banked more than $1 million. #13 Princess Karen (20-1) set the pace and held the place behind Unique Bella last time. The sophomore filly is getting better but these are probably a bit more than she can handle at this stage of her career. #6 Proper Discretion (30-1) won her last three dirt sprints at TND including back-to-back OH-bred stakes and she adds fuel to the pace fire. THE PLAYS: #12 to win, Exacta Box 11-12, Exacta 11-12/2-8-9, Trifecta 11-12/2-8-9-11-12/2-8-9-11-12, Superfecta 11-12/8-11-12/ALL/2-8-9-11-12
DMR 7 (G1 BC F&M Turf, 9T) #8 GRAND JETE (6-1) won her first three US starts, was unlucky to just miss in the G1 Beverly D, and was in unknown territory setting the pace before succumbing late (3rd by length) in the G1 Flower Bowl. Her last two starts were a bit longer than this race (150, 152 Finals) and this distance might be just about right. #9 Lady Eli (5-2) is 10- for-13 with three 2nds (150+ Finals in 4 of last 6) and won her last three graded turf routes. She missed by a nose at 10f in this event last year and is 3-for-3 at this distance. #1 War Flag (12-1) is always in the Top 3 (9-5-3-1) and got up by a head as an overlay in the G1 Flower Bowl Oct 8 (153 Final). #7 Dacita (8-1) won the G1 Beverly D Aug 12 and just missed in the Flower Bowl last time. She is a classy, consistent mare. #11 Nezwaah (20-1) is an interesting longshot. I liked her in the G1 E.P Taylor but the ground might not have been to her liking. She won a Group 1 in IRE July 2 and might be able to crack the Top 4. #5 Wuheida (20-1) shipped to the US for the QE II Challenge Cup at KEE but was lame and did not start. She was 2-for-2 and a Group 1 winner at two but is 0-for-4 this year. She is reportedly training well for this. #14 Rhododendron (8-1) got back on the beam in the G1 Prix de l’Opera Oct 1 and she was also a Group 1 winner in 2016. She is not out of this for O’Brien. #10 Queen’ s Trust (12-1) won this event last year but has not come close to duplicating that form in 2017 (0-for-5). She is only 2-for-13 so it’s not like she was a win machine heading to the US last year. #4 Zipessa (20-1) exits a nice win in the G1 First Lady at one mile and rallied to finish an okay 5th in this event last year. She handles longer distances but her strongest races have been between 8-8.5f. #6 Cambodia (8-1) won back-to-back grade two turf routes at DMR over the summer and this is the deepest field she has ever seen. #2 Senga (20-1) flopped last time but won a sophomore filly Group 1 June 18 and seems to have a touch of class. #12 Avenge (8-1) went all the way in the G1 Rodeo Drive last year before setting the pace and finishing 3rd in this event at 18-1. Fast forward to 2017 and she won the Rodeo Drive again but earned a better number last year. #13 Goodyearforroses (12-1) gave Lady Eli a scare in the G1 Gamely May 27 but has now dropped four straight after winning her first two 2017 outings. #3 Birdie Gold (30-1) won 4 of 5 starts in Peru but this is a huge class test for the 3-year-old daughter of Birdstone. AE #15 Kitten’s Roar (20-1) moves up with some give in the ground and won’t get that footing today. AE #16 Responsibleforlove (20-1) ran well for 3rd in the Rodeo Drive but that was not a tough race this year. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta Box 8-9, Exacta 8-9/1-5-7-11, Trifecta 8-9/ALL/1, Superfecta 8-9/1-8-9/ALL/1-7-8-9-11, $2 Ultra Pick Six 9/2-8/5-10-12/11/3-5-12/1- 5-8-11 ($144)
DMR 8 (G1 BC Sprint, 6f) #8 ROY H (7-2) is 4-for-5 (155, 162, 153 Finals last 3 wins) with a 2nd this year and he could easily be unbeaten in 2017 if not for loose horse Drefong in the G1 Bing Crosby. He might sit the garden spot trip under Kent D. #2 Drefong (5-2) won this last year and exits a sharp victory in the G1 Forego (164 Final). He is training well for this and is the deserving favorite. #10 Imperial Hint (9-2) is 4-for-4 this year (170 Final Sept 4) and owns early/pressing versatility. He gets tested for class and might get hung out wide chasing lively splits. #7 Takaful (5-1) ran in a trio of Derby preps but could not handle a route of ground. However, he is a stellar sprinter with three wins and a 2nd from four one-turn outings (2-for-2 at 6f). The improving (155 Final Sept 30), fleet 3-year-old colt is firing bullets for McLaughlin. #3 American Pastime (12-1) drilled back-to-back strong bullets for this at SA on Oct 20 and DMR on Oct 27. He won a local sprint Aug 19 and his lone six furlong loss in six outings was a close-up place finish in the G3 Gallant Bob at Parx Sept 23 (155 Final). #5 Whitmore (15-1) got back on the winning track in the G2 Phoenix and is 7-for-9 with a pair of show finishes at 6f. He fired 143 Finals in his last three and that will not get in done today. #6 Mind Your Biscuits (6-1) rallied for 3rd as a 3-year-old in this event last year and has won 3 of 5 since. He threw in a rare clunker when last seen in the G1 Forego. #9 Ransom the Moon (12-1) was a bit below his best in a non-threatening 4th in the G1 SA Sprint Oct 7. He was a neck shy of four straight SoCal dirt sprint wins prior to his last including a course/distance score in the G1 Bing Crosby. #1 Calculator (20-1) is a classy extended sprinter but has never tried this distance on the main. This race is for fleet six furlong specialists. #4 B Squared (30-1) exits a game downhill score vs. older CA-breds in the California Flag and he was right there is both dirt sprint outings. He has yet to beat open company. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta Box 2-8, Exacta 2-8/3-7-10, Trifecta 2-8/2-3-7-8-10/2-3-7-8-10, Superfecta 2-8/2-8-10/ALL/2-3- 7-8-10

DMR 9 (G1 BC Mile, 8T) #12 ROLY POLY (6-1) won Group 1 flat mile affairs in 3 of her last 4 (Moore aboard last 5 wins) and was 2nd in back-to-back Group 1's before that. The sophomore filly is classy enough to take this. #10 Ribchester (7-2) has never actually finished out of the Trifecta in 15 outings (DQ’d from 2nd to 5th April 2016). The multiple Group 1 winner loves a flat mile and is an obvious threat if he brings his sharp form to DMR. #5 World Approval (9-2) has been sensational since cutting back to a flat mile and winning the G1 Fourstardave and G1 Woodbine Mile. He is 4-for-5 this year, drew well, and should be forwardly placed. #11 Ballagh Rocks (12-1) enters in sharp form for Mott but his best win to date was in the G3 Poker. He is a cut below but can be used in exotics. #4 Lancaster Bomber (20-1) finished a troubled 2nd behind World Approval in the G1 Woodbine Mile but he is only 1-for-13 and came back to run 14th at 40-1 in the G1 QE II at Ascot Oct 21. He was 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf last fall. #8 Suedois (6-1) followed up a Group 2 tally in IRE with a 9-1 surprise in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile. These are tougher but he is sharp. #7 Om (20-1) is 0-for-9 in 2016-17 but was very unlucky to just miss in the G1 BC Turf Sprint last fall. He is almost always in the mix at this course and distance. #6 Zelzal (20-1) won 4 of his first 5 as a juvenile but has dropped four straight since. #1 Midnight Storm (15-1) set the pace and held the place in a below par renewal of the G1 Awesome Again Sept 30. He was very sharp last year into early 2017 but has dropped five straight. #3 Mr. Roary (30- 1) is building a reputation as a stakes bomber after a 22-1 win in the G3 Eddie D and a 38-1 tally in the Rainbow. He is obviously in very deep but do not be afraid to include him underneath. #2 Heart to Heart (6-1) has early speed but is not the only one and has come close vs. grade 1 company but is 0-for-6 at the elite level. #9 Home of the Brave (20-1) is a consistent overseas seven panel turf specialist with Smith in the saddle. He came to the US for the BC Turf Sprint last fall and finished 11th. #13 Blackjackcat (15-1) drew a tough post for his early/pressing running style. He has won four straight at this distance (2 stakes wins at DMR) and was 6th in his lone grade one last year. #14 Karar (15-1) finished 14 in the BC Turf Sprint last year and the seven panel lover might be in trouble at this distance from the outside post. THE PLAYS: #12 to win, Exacta Box 10-12, Exacta 10-12/4-5-11, Exacta 4-5-11/10-12, Trifecta 5-10-12/4-5-10-11-12/4-5-10-11-12, Superfecta 10-12/5-10-12/ALL/4-5- 10-11-12, 50 cent Pick Four 12/11/1-3-5-7-8-12/1-5-8-11 ($12), 50 cent Pick Four 4-5-8-10-11-12/11/3/1-5-8-11 ($12), 50 cent Pick Four 4-5-8-10-11-12/11/1-3-5-7-8-12/8 ($18), 50 cent Pick Four 10-12/5-11/3-5/8-11 ($8)
DMR 10 (G1 BC Juvenile, 8.5) #11 BOLT D’ORO (9-5) is 3-for-3 and looked sensational in his romping G1 FrontRunner victory Sept 30. He is 2-for-2 at DMR and wins this for fun if he runs back to his last. #5 Free Drop Billy (5-1) finished 1-2 in all four races and I love his distance progression (5.5f, 6f, 7f, 8.5f). He exits a smart two turn victory in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and is training well for this. #6 Good Magic (8-1) might have been best in the G1 Champagne after chasing fast fractions and getting caught late in just his second lifetime start. Brown’s talented maiden should continue to progress. #2 Solomini (6-1) followed up a sharp DMR dirt sprint win with a clear place finish behind runaway winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner. The Baffert runner figures to stalk the pace and should keep getting better. #3 Firenze Fire (6-1) is 3-for-3 on a fast track and got plenty of pace help in his late running G1 Champagne triumph Oct 8. #8 Bahamian (30-1) stumbled at the start and lost all chance in the Champagne. Before that, he improved smartly to finish a clear 2nd behind Solomini in a local maiden sprint Sept 2 but he is 0-for-3 and does not appear ready for this type yet. #9 Hazit (20-1) wired Good Magic by a length in his debut but was 8+ lengths behind that rival after chasing and weakening from post 11 in the Champagne. #4 Givemeaminit (20-1) is still a maiden after three starts. He came within a head of Free Drop Billy in the G1 Hopeful but was seven lengths behind that foe in the Breeders’ Futurity. #12 Hollywood Star (15-1) continues to slowly improve for Romans but has not made sufficient progress in the morning or afternoon to seriously threaten this group. Romans says watch out when he puts it all together but that will probably have to wait for another day. #1 U S Navy Flag (8-1) won his last three turf sprints vs. group company and the busy 2- year-old has already started ten times. #7 The Tabulator (20-1) is 3-for-3 and his numbers are rising but Hollywood Star was getting to him the G3 Iroquois and these are much tougher. #10 Golden Dragon (30-1) exits back-to-back flat mile turf wins and his numbers are improving but he has never tried dirt and this is a very tough spot. THE PLAYS: #11 to win, Exacta 11/2-5-6, Exacta 2-5-6/11, Trifecta Key 11/2-3-5-6-8, Superfecta 11/2-5-6/2-5-6/ALL, Superfecta 11/2-5-6/ALL/2-5-6, Superfecta 11/ALL/2-5-6/2-5-6
DMR 11 (G1 BC Turf, 12T) #3 HIGHLAND REEL (5-1) won this last year and captured a pair of Group 1's in June but was below par in his last pair (soft ground). He is obviously classy enough to win a race like this and will get preferred firm footing. #5 Ulysses (7-2) landed the show in the G1 Arc last time and has been on his game in all six starts this year including two Group 1 wins. He was 4th in this event last year but was a Group 3 type as a sophomore in 2016 and is much better this year. He seems best at ten furlongs. #12 Beach Patrol (4-1) was always consistent and usually fell a tad short but really turned the win corner with back-to-back grade one scores in his last pair. He has never been better and must be respected throughout for Rosario- Brown. #7 Itsinthepost (12-1) has enjoyed a banner year with a trio of grade two wins and $500k in earnings. He is 2-for-2 at this distance and might be sharp enough to get a piece of this. #1 Talismanic (15-1) is a fresh, consistent turf marathon specialist for sharp international trainer Fabre. His Timeform Ratings are climbing and the Group 2 winner might be good enough to step up and be competitive in a grade one. #8 Bigger Picture (15-1) is consistent and classy enough to finish somewhere in the mix. #10 Fanciful Angel (12-1) landed the place in both grade one starts in the US and Ortiz Jr. got acquainted with the Brown trainee Sept 30. #9 Seventh Heaven (20-1) was up the track in her last pair including a 14th in the Arc. She won a couple of Group 1's last year prior to finishing 4th in the BC F&M Turf and she easily won a Group 2 when she was sharp earlier in 2017. #11 Hunt (15-1) scored back-to-back grade two wins at DMR over the summer but lost his way at SA Oct 1. #13 Sadler’s Joy (12-1) is as talented as many of the US runners and can grab a share if he brings his “A” game. #14 Oscar Performance (10-1) loves to control the pace and has a nose for the wire when he gets the right setup. His only shot is to amble along on the lead. #4 Decorated Knight (15-1) exits a 25-1 surprise in the G1 Champion and the ten furlong specialist tries to navigate a marathon today. #2 Bullards Alley (15-1) totally freaked on soft turf in the G1 Canadian International but was 1-for-20 on turf before that so I will label that race a fluke. #6 Cliffs of Moher (20-1) was in good form vs. 3-year-olds in May/June but the improvement stalled v. older in his last four. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta Box 3-5, Exacta 3-5/1-7-12, Exacta 1-7-12/3-5, Trifecta 3-5- /1-3-5-7-8-12/1-3-5-7-8-12, Superfecta 3-5/3-5-12/ALL/1-3-5-7-12

DMR 12 (G1 BC Classic, 10f) #8 WEST COAST (6-1) is not as fast as Arrogate was heading into the 2016 Classic but the Travers and PA Derby hero earned much better numbers in his last pair and can beat you on the front end, stalking, or closing. Baffert has won the last three editions of this race with 3-year-olds (Bayern, American Pharaoh, Arrogate). Castellano takes over for Smith, who obviously sticks with #1 Arrogate (2-1). The latter has not been quite the same since returning from his awesome score in the G1 Dubai World Cup but the 10f Pacific Classic was a step in the right direction. He won his other three starts at 10f including the 2016 BC Classic and if he is anywhere near his best they are all running for minor awards. #11 Collected (6-1) is 4- for-4 this year (7-for-7 overall on fast dirt) and exits a game 1/2 length score over Arrogate at this course/distance in the G1 Pacific Classic. He could not be training any better heading into this event and rates a big shot to complete a perfect 2017 campaign. #5 Gun Runner (9-5) looks like California Chrome did heading into the ‘16 Classic. Just like Chrome, Gun Runner came back from Dubai and won three straight graded routes in prominent throughout fashion and was all over moderate fractions vs. overmatched foes. Chrome controlled the pace in the ‘16 Classic but Arrogate got by him anyway and the latter easily beat Gun Runner in their two match-ups. Also, Gun Runner is 0-for-3 at 10f. #9 Gunnevera (30-1) ran a big race in the G1 Travers. West Coast controlled the pace in that one and Gunnevera was near the back of the 12-horse field after a bumpy beginning. He made a big, wide early move to take on the front runner and ended up clearly second best. He is firing bullets for this and can spice up the exotics. #2 War Decree (30-1) is slightly interesting for O’Brien. There is no questioning his juvenile class but his first two starts this year were disappointing and he got back on the beam in an all-weather Group 3 in IRE Sept 29. #6 Mubtaahij (12-1) is a classy overseas transplant exiting a nice score in the G1 Awesome Again but it was not a stellar renewal of that event. He can improve 2nd off the shelf but is not as fast as the top runners in this event. #10 Pavel (20-1) is a rapidly improving sophomore colt but he is probably in way over his head in just his fifth lifetime start. If he could not catch NY-bred Diversify and hold off Keen Ice for 2nd in a less than stellar edition of the JCGC, how is he going to catch Collected and Gun Runner and hold off Arrogate and company? I do not see any running style path to victory for him. #7 Churchill (15-1) won 7 of his first 8 turf starts but has dropped his last four and meets some very tough US rivals. #3 Win the Space (30-1) occasionally pops up and hits the board in graded routes (3rd in G1 Awesome Again twice, 3rd in '16 G1 Pacific Classic, 2nd in '16 G1 Gold Cup). Use him underneath only if at all. #4 War Story (30-1) was a baker’s dozen behind Gun Runner in his last pair and was pummeled by Arrogate in his other two grade one starts. He is overmatched. THE PLAYS: #8 & 11 to win, Exacta Box 8-11, Exacta 8-11/1-5-9, Exacta 1-2-5-9/8-11, Trifecta 1-5-8-11/ALL/9, Superfecta 1-2-5-8-11/1-2-5-8-11/1-2-5-8-11/9
Rolling Daily Double & Pick 3 Contenders – in order of preference:
1 (1-11-12-10-9-7) 2 (2-6-1)
3 (3-1-10-5-4)
4 (13-7-9-8-12-3) 5 (3-6-1-8-2)
6 (12-11-8-2-9)
7 (8-9-1-7-11-5)
8 (8-2-10-7-3)
9 (12-10-5-11-4-8) 10 (11-5-6-2-3)
11 (3-5-12-7-1-8) 12 (8-11-1-5-9-2)
ROLLING DAILY DOUBLE/PICK 3 WAGERING STRATEGIES
For Rolling Doubles and Pick 3 tickets, key the top choice in each race to all other contenders. See examples below:
Double (Race 1-2):
Ticket 1 (1-2)
Ticket 2 (1/1-2-6)
Ticket 3 (1-7-9-10-11-12/2)
Double (Races 2-3): Ticket 2 (2-3)
Ticket 1 (2/1-3-4-5-10) Ticket 3 (1-2-6/3)
Pick 3 (Race 1-3):
Ticket 1 (1-2-3)
Ticket 2 (1/1-2-6/1-3-4-5-10)
Ticket 3 (1-7-9-10-11-12/2/1-3-4-5-10) Ticket 4 (1-7-9-10-11-12/1-2-6/3)
50 cent Pick 5 Spread Tickets (Races 1-5, Total Cost - $54):

50 cent Pick 4 Spread Tickets (Races 2-5 Total Cost - $36):
50 cent Pick Four (Races 5-8, Total Cost - $40):

$2 Pick 6 Spread Tickets (Races 7-12, Total Cost - $256):