Best College Football Bets Week 4
CFB Vegas Experts - ESPN INSIDER
Our experts are back with their Week 4 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 4 of the college football season.
ATS record:
Phil Steele: 5-3 in Week 3 (8-15 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 2-3 in Week 3 (8-5-1 season)
Chris Fallica: 3-4 in Week 3 (11-12 season)
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 16 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-13.5)
Steele: TCU is 34-10 on the road over the past nine years, but Oklahoma State has been one of the most impressive teams in the country led by Mason Rudolph and James Washington. Their highlights are constantly being shown, making the public like them even more. TCU has one of the best secondaries in the nation, holding foes under 50 percent passing. The Frogs have also held each of their foes to their respective season lows in yards and are winning by an average margin of 49-14. Before the season started, I had these teams within a few points of each other, and I still do. This game will be decided on the last possession, so I'm taking the double-digit 'dog.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 35
Coughlin: How does Oklahoma State make scoring points so easy -- and will it continue? Oklahoma State plays at a relentless pace and has been so successful that their star quarterback, Mason Rudolph, has played in only eight of the 12 quarters the team has played so far this season. I think that offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich will be a head coach next year, with the attention this Pokes offense is getting and will continue to get through this season, thanks to them averaging over 54 points. On the other side, you have Gary Patterson prepping his team, and you can be sure he has brought up last year's embarrassing 31-6 loss at home. I wouldn't take too many other coaches in college football to coach TCU in this game. The Horned Frogs' defense played great in a road game at Arkansas earlier this year, giving up only seven points. I think the road team keeps it close and covers.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 31
Fallica: This series has been one of blowouts and unders. The past five meetings were decided by at least 14 points with the average margin of victory of 22.8 points. Only one of the five meetings had more than 51 points scored. I'm curious to see how the line moves. This number was 11.5 on Tuesday, and I guessed it would go up and has now, given how the Cowboys have blown out everyone. That move might give some value to TCU, but I'll steer clear of the side and go with the history of this game and call for a lower-scoring game than most would think.
Pick: Under 71 points
Score: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 28
No. 17 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs (-5)
Steele: Mississippi State has lost nine straight in Athens, with its last win coming in 1956, but Georgia does have SEC East rival Tennessee on deck. Mississippi State has been impressive and has an average game grade of 108.8, the fifth best in the country, after its 465-270 yard edge against LSU. It is outgaining foes by 287 yards per game this year. My computer is calling for Mississippi State to win outright. It has a great shot at the upset here, and I like their quarterback edge with Nick Fitzgerald over true freshman Jake Fromm. Mississippi State is 9-3 as an away 'dog in the past five years and has to be thinking it can break the long losing streak this year. I won't call for the streak to end, but I will call for Mississippi State to keep this game closer than expected.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Georgia 24, Mississippi State 23
Coughlin: After a huge win last week at home versus LSU, the stakes get even bigger as the Bulldogs travel to Athens. Dan Mullen's Bulldogs come in leading the SEC in scoring defense (9.3 points per game) and have outscored opponents 143-28. Still, I like the spot that Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs are in here, as all the talk this week will be about their opponent. The Georgia defense is giving up 14.3 points per game and an average of just 71 yards on the ground. No team has rushed for more than 100 yards against Georgia through three games. I see this being the story of the game, with both defenses playing well. I don't expect a crazy offensive game plan from Georgia, as it will rely on its defense and home field to be a major factor. I see the winner of this game scoring in the 20s. I like the under.
Pick: Under 48.5 points
Score: Georgia 24, Mississippi State 19
Fallica: I liked Mississippi State last week against LSU and noted Dan Mullen's success as a touchdown underdog, but I worry the State bandwagon might be too full this week. I don't think Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams will have as easy of a time running as they did last week. Now, I do think Mississippi State's defense is legit, so I don't know how many points Georgia will put up given the inexperience of quarterback Jake Fromm, but if I had to make a pick on this game, I think it is going to be one of those games that the public sides with the underdog, and then Georgia wins by seven after being close throughout.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 24, Mississippi State 17
No. 20 Florida Gators (-2) at Kentucky Wildcats
Steele: There are three things that are certain in life: death, taxes and Florida beating Kentucky. The nation's longest active winning streak of one opponent over another is now at 30 in a row. The Wildcats have been outscored 125-13 in the first quarter alone the past eight meetings. Feleipe Franks gained a lot of confidence last week and showed off his powerful arm with that 63-yard toss, hitting his receiver in stride for the winning touchdown. Florida has faced Michigan and Tennessee, and is taking a step down in level of competition, while Kentucky is playing its toughest foe of the year to date, and is giving up 64.2 percent completions. The Wildcats are just 3-11-2 as a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Kentucky 20
Fallica: In two of the past three years, people thought the streak was about to be broken. I wasn't one of them. But this year, I think the time has come. The Gators have injuries and suspensions to deal with, and their offense just isn't very good right now. Florida's defense will keep it in the game, but I think Kentucky's defense will also do a good job keeping the Gators out of the end zone. After the emotion of last week, will Florida wear down late if it is again a close, physical game? I'll take the Cats at home to snap the 30-game losing streak.
ATS pick: Kentucky
Score: Kentucky 23, Florida 20
UCF Knights at Maryland Terrapins (-3.5)
Steele: Maryland has a rare extra game under its belt edge this early in the season due to UCF having to cancel/postpone its past two games due to the effects of Hurricane Irma. The Knights haven't played in 21 days. Maryland lost starting quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome in its season-opening win at Texas. True freshman Kasim Hill led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives, and that win looks even better now with the way Texas has responded in the past two weeks. I had Hill rated at the No. 26 quarterback coming out of high school and thought he would contend for the starting job this year, anyway. DJ Durkin has his Maryland squad playing with confidence, and UCF is just 5-16 in road openers. I'll call for the Terrapins to win by over a touchdown.
ATS pick: Maryland
Score: Maryland 44, UCF 35
Coughlin: This is one of my favorite games of the weekend because I absolutely love both of these offensive coordinators: Maryland's Walt Bell and UCF's Troy Walters. These great young minds have serious talent on their side of the ball and are putting up sky-high numbers. While we've only seen one game of the Knights' offense, you could easily see the improvement of quarterback McKenzie Milton, as he threw for 360 yards and four touchdowns. I don't expect him to be rusty. The Terps come in averaging 315 yards per game rushing the football. I expect the scoreboard will be lit up like a Christmas tree. Take the over.
Pick: Over 59.5 points
Score: Maryland 45, UCF 42
Friday games
No. 23 Utah Utes (-3.5) at Arizona Wildcats
Fallica: It pretty much bottomed out last year for Rich Rodriguez at Arizona, as the Cats were 2-10 against the number and weren't very competitive after taking eventual conference champion Washington to overtime in the Pac-12 opener. The seemingly annual Rodriguez upset win never came. Arizona lost at home to Houston a couple of weeks back, but at least the defense played well. This had been a series that Arizona had controlled before last year, winning four straight -- three coming in as a 'dog -- but last year, Arizona couldn't hold a halftime lead, and Utah went on to win by 13 points. We've seen Utah play one road game this year, and it was a struggle with a mediocre BYU team. Our numbers have Arizona favored by about six in the game, so we'll take the points and look for the Wildcats to put forth their best effort of the year.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Arizona 31, Utah 27
Saturday games
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-4.5) at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Steele: Though the schools are just 92 miles apart and have met 22 times, this is their first matchup since 2001. Wake Forest went 4-1 in nonconference games last year and made a bowl game, so this might mean more to it than next week's Florida State game. The Deacons are just the second Power 5 team to travel to Boone, and Appalachian State was fired up last year when it hosted Miami -- but still lost 45-10. I have been extremely impressed with Wake Forest this year, as it played better than my expectations in each game, and its average game grade is 92.7 (No. 34). Appalachian State has played below my expectations in each game and was outgained 385-283 by Texas State, which ended the game at the Appalachian State 1-yard line down seven last week. I expect a good amount of Wake Forest fans on hand and for it to grab the road win.
ATS pick: Wake Forest
Score: Wake Forest 28, Appalachian State 17
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks (-8.5)
Steele: This is the only non-SEC game in a six-week span for South Carolina. Last week, Central Michigan was off an upset road win and traveling again, and Syracuse was off an upset home loss and at home again. Syracuse was laying 9.5 points and won, 41-17. I bring that up because this game has a similar feel, with Louisiana Tech off a huge Conference USA road win over Western Kentucky, while South Carolina is off a home upset loss to Kentucky. South Carolina has played my No. 10 toughest schedule, and Louisiana Tech has played just my No. 81 toughest. Louisiana Tech quarterback J'Mar Smith is completing just 51.5 percent of his passes. I like the value on South Carolina.
ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: South Carolina 37, Louisiana Tech 20
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-11)
Steele: This is the first away game for Rutgers, and the Scarlet Knights dropped their past two road openers by 30 points per game. Rutgers has had 12 Big Ten road games and lost nine of those by 18 or more points. Nebraska had a two-to-one yardage edge last week in the first half but trailed 14-0 due to a pair of interception return touchdowns. The loss was to an improved Northern Illinois team that will make a bowl. Rutgers won 65-0 over a Morgan State team that also was shut out in its first two games against FCS foes. Rutgers is averaging just 13.5 points against FBS foes, and Nebraska is averaging 32 points, and after two straight losses, the Huskers are in must-win mode. Bob Diaco's defense made big strides last week, holding Northern Illinois to just 213 yards. I like the angry Huskers to win big in a game that they have to take seriously.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 35, Rutgers 13
UT San Antonio Roadrunners (-12.5) at Texas State Bobcats
Steele: UTSA was in a bowl last year and is a legit contender to win Conference USA this year. It has already beaten a Power 5 team in Baylor on the road and is giving up only 212 yards per game. Texas State exhorted a ton of energy in its emotional loss last week, finishing one yard short of scoring a touchdown in a seven-point loss. With the schools so close, I expect a good amount of UTSA fans to make the less than one-hour trek. UTSA quarterback Dalton Sturm is completing a remarkable 81 percent of his passes, and the Bobcats are allowing 62.2 percent completions.
ATS pick: UT San Antonio
Score: UT San Antonio 28, Texas State 7
No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs (-3) at Air Force Falcons
Steele: Rocky Long is vastly experienced at defending the option going back to his days as the New Mexico head coach. He has won all five games in this series while coaching San Diego State. Air Force enters off a physical loss at Michigan. There was no luck involved in San Diego State's two wins over Power 5 foes Arizona State and Stanford. The Aztecs outgained both and even had an impressive 21-9 first-down edge against the Cardinal. San Diego State is holding its opponents to 183 yards per game below their season averages. On offense, Rashaad Penny has run for 588 yards with an impressive 8.3 average, and Christian Chapman is completing 68 percent of his throws. The Aztecs could be in line for a New Years Six Bowl bid if they run the table.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Score: San Diego State 28, Air Force 17
West Virginia Mountaineers (-22.5) at Kansas Jayhawks
Fallica: One would have to be a complete fool to back Kansas on the heels of being blown out by Central Michigan and Ohio. Well, I've been called worse. Last year, KU was a double-digit home 'dog four times -- three times as at least a 20-point 'dog -- and the Jayhawks went 3-0-1 against the number and pulled the outright upset win over Texas. West Virginia could be peeking ahead just a bit to an upcoming game with TCU, as well. I'll take the better-than-three-touchdown line in this spot, expecting a much better effort from the Jayhawks.
ATS pick: Kansas
Score: West Virginia 38, Kansas 24
Alabama Crimson Tide (-18.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Fallica: It is apparent that Vanderbilt is improved, but beating Middle Tennessee, Alabama A&M and Kansas State is one thing, while hanging with the top dog in the conference is another. And it's not as if Vandy is just sneaking up on Bama. The Tide will be on full alert with the national attention of Vandy's 3-0 start and hearing how Vandy has the top defense statistically in the country. After a couple of sluggish efforts against Group of 5 schools, expect Alabama to come out and methodically control this one, reminding all that it is still the king of the SEC. You might even get a bit more of a discounted number, as I think there will be money coming in on the Commodores.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 10
Ohio Bobcats at Eastern Michigan Eagles (-2)
Fallica: Ohio righted the ship last week against Kansas and now heads to Ypsilanti with revenge on its mind after being upset at home last year by EMU. FPI has the Bobcats rated as a slight favorite in this game, so I'm willing to take a shot with our numbers.
ATS pick: Ohio
Score: Ohio 27, Eastern Michigan 23
NC State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles (-12.5)
Coughlin: This is such a tricky spot for Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles: a noon game at home, and they haven't been able to get a snap for new starting quarterback James Blackman because they haven't had a game to play since losing De'Andre Francois in the season-opening loss to Alabama. There is plenty to like about the NC State defense, starting with defensive lineman Bradley Chubb, who is the brother of Georgia star running back Nick Chubb. The feeling here is that the Wolfpack defense can cause enough disruption to the Noles' offense, and the NC State offense, led by quarterback Ryan Finley (six touchdowns through the air and no interceptions), can score enough to pull the upset. We'll take the points but also call for the upset.
ATS pick: NC State, over 52 points
Score: NC State 23, Florida State 17
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies (-28.5)
Coughlin: Last week, the Hokies were trailing East Carolina 17-7 and rallied back to score 57 unanswered points, beating the Pirates, 64-17. I love what I'm seeing from quarterback Josh Jackson, who is fresh off a 372-yard, five-touchdown performance, and I don't think there is a possibility that the Hokies could be looking ahead to Clemson next week because I trust head coach Justin Fuente. The Monarchs have a bunch of injuries and don't have the depth to maintain success at the Division I level yet, and it showed up last week when they were dominated by North Carolina 53-23. I like the over, and honestly, Virginia Tech might cover it itself.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech, over 52 points
Score: Virginia Tech 50, Old Dominion 13
