Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 10

Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 10
Mark Gallant


There were some real cakewalks across the NFL this past weekend. True shellackings that had many fans changing the channel before halftime. You know who you are ...

Most of these big victors were heavily bet public favorites. Those sorts of teams are ones we tend to shy away from at Sports Insights. Oddsmakers will shade lines on popular teams and heavy favorites because they know that square, public bettors will still bet on them. This creates value on the other side in the long run.

Speaking of "squares," public bettors have had a very strong stretch of late. The past two weeks, teams receiving at least 60 percent of spread bets have gone 13-2-2 against the spread (ATS) based on the closing lines at Pinnacle.

As a whole, though, contrarian bettors have still had a profitable season. Teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone 16-5 ATS and teams garnering less than 35 percent of bets have gone 26-16 ATS.

This week, we will be targeting teams that are coming off a blowout. Historically, teams coming off a 20-point loss or more against a team that has won at least two-thirds of its games have had a significant edge.

Why it works

Taking teams off a big loss has been a profitable strategy regardless of previous opponent. However, it truly takes a massive step forward when we narrow our focus and look at only the ones that have been blown out by a "good" team. Not only do these teams have to boast at least a 66 percent winning percentage to qualify for this system, but the game also has to take place in the second half of the season. Plenty of bad teams can start the year 2-1, but when they are still winning at least two-thirds of their games at this point of the season, they're the real deal more often than not.

Since these teams will be looked upon poorly due to their awful performances, sportsbooks and bettors might overreact and create a better opportunity for a bounce-back cover.


Week 10 system matches


New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game is shaping up to be very interesting from a gambling perspective. The Jets have been one of the bigger surprises in the NFL this season. Nobody expected them to have any sort of success, meanwhile, they've been one of the better bets this season with four wins straight-up and six wins against the spread. In fact, they became the first team to surpass their season win total of 3.5 with their victory against the Bills.

The Bucs are coming off a 30-10 loss to the Saints in which quarterback Jameis Winston had to be taken out due to his shoulder injury. It looked as if Winston probably shouldn't have been playing to begin with.

Before the season began, many would have expected this game to be a laugher. The look-ahead line from CG Technology back in April actually had Tampa Bay as an 8-point favorite.

Instead, we get to see Bucs backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick take on his old team as an underdog. Who would've guessed that? The Bucs will also be without star wide receiver Mike Evans, who was suspended for his blindside hit on Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

With this perfect storm of things going wrong for Tampa Bay, 78 percent of bettors are on the Jets. We'll take Tampa as a contrarian home 'dog plus the points.

The Pick: Bucs +2.5



New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

49ers fans are itching to get a look at their new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but it appears they'll be stuck watching C.J. Beathard again this week. Though the 49ers remain winless, they actually opened as a one-point favorite against the Giants at some offshore books. This truly illustrates how poorly the Giants' season is going.

The Giants can now be found as a pick 'em or -1 across the market. They are the trendiest match of the week, but are still not getting an overwhelming amount of public support at 59 percent of spread bets.

With the Giants coming off a whopping 34-point loss, this is a great chance for them to grab what could be one of just a few victories in a disappointing 2017 season.

The Pick: Giants -1



New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

This one is really painful to write about as a Pats fan. With quarterback Brock Osweiler playing so poorly against the Eagles, it's tough to bet on him against New England, which is coming off a bye week. Public bettors are feeling the same way, as a week-high 85 percent of spread bets are coming in on the Patriots.

This game opened with New England as a touchdown favorite, but the line has moved to 7.5 at most books around the market. The Broncos are coming off four consecutive ATS losses, and at 2-5-1 ATS, they have been one of the worst teams to bet on this season.

With most bettors giving up hope and Denver coming off a 28-point loss, it's time to put your faith in the Brocketship. Fingers crossed.

The Pick: Broncos +7.5



Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.