Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 3
PJ Walsh - ESPN INSIDER
Two weeks are officially in the books and our contrarian betting systems have resulted in a solid 57.1 percent ATS win rate to start the season. So far, we've been able to leverage the public's perceptions of good and bad teams to find valuable betting opportunities. Looking ahead to Week 3, we'll continue to employ contrarian betting strategies while specifically looking to take advantage of teams that have "burned" bettors through the first two weeks of the 2017 NFL season.
To kick off our analysis, I used Bet Labs' data analysis software to create an NFL betting system with a 60.4 percent against the spread (ATS) record, plus-9.54 units won and a return on investment (ROI) of 19.9 percent since 2005, that is currently offering three value plays for Week 3.
This week's system starts off by isolating NFL teams that have started a season 0-2 ATS. By solely betting on teams in Week 3 that have not covered the spread in either of their first two matchups, we're already in the black with a 57.9 percent ATS win rate and a ROI of 14.2 percent. To finish off this simple system, we included only home teams that are 0-2 ATS in Week 3 and improved the ATS win rate to 60.4 percent and the ROI to 19.9 percent.
Why does this work?
Public bettors are very focused on "what have you done for me lately" and will not back teams that have lost them money, especially those that failed to cover the spread in both of the first two games of the season. Oddsmakers are fully aware of this bias and shade opening lines toward the opponents of our system matches, forcing public bettors to take bad numbers when betting against NFL teams that are 0-2 ATS.
Public bettors are more consumed with betting on or against teams, while sharp bettors don't care about the team as long as they see value in the number they're getting. And, if oddsmakers are going to shade numbers simply to take advantage of public perception, sharp players will not hesitate to buy back the value this creates.
Week 3 system matches
Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets
Since 2003, the Dolphins have only been road favorites of six or more points four times, but add the Jets to the mix and public bettors have no problem laying the six with Jay Cutler. Seventy-seven percent of spread bets are on Miami, and I'm not exactly going out on a limb when I say that we expect this trend of lopsided betting to continue throughout the week. Since this game opened, sharp money has already jumped on Jets +6 at many market-setting offshore sportsbooks. Therefore, those looking to back this play should get the current line before it moves off the important number of six across the market.
The pick: Jets +6
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City is off to a very impressive 2-0 start, beating both New England and Philadelphia ... and public bettors have taken notice. The Chiefs, who are currently receiving 78 percent of spread bets, have only received this level of one-sided public support three times since the start of the 2005 season.
On the other hand, the Chargers have lost their first two games by a total of only five points, yet failed to cover the spread in both. We're not yet convinced that Kansas City is worthy of such lopsided betting, especially taking on a talented divisional opponent on the road.
The pick: Chargers +3
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Death, taxes and the betting public hammering the Cowboys. Despite getting pummeled by Denver on national television, 71 percent of spread tickets and a whopping 93 percent of actual spread dollars are on Dallas in this matchup.
The Cardinals have certainly underperformed to start the season, as evidenced by their needing overtime to sneak out with a win over the Andrew Luck-less Colts last week, so it's no surprise to see public bettors backing the Cowboys. However, based on our system results and the Cardinals getting to play in Arizona for the first time this season, we like the value as three-point home underdogs.
The pick: Cardinals +3
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
