From 107 William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada and their mobile betting app
Public is crushing the Vikings spread (89%) and Patriots spread (77%)
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From 107 William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada and their mobile betting app
Public is crushing the Vikings spread (89%) and Patriots spread (77%)
This is the first time since the 1970 merger that all 4 teams in the conference championship games had a Top 5 scoring defense that season
Vikings: 15.8 PPG allowed (1st)
Jaguars: 16.8 PPG allowed (2nd)
Eagles: 18.4 PPG allowed (4th)
Patriots: 18.5 PPG allowed (5th)
Patriots ...
6-0 SU and ATS in last 6 home games with an avg win margin of 17.3 points
7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in last 7 home playoff games with an avg win margin of 18.3 points
7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in last 7 games vs Jaguars with an avg win margin of 17.43
The Vikings had the NFL's #1 total defense this season
In their 4 games without Carson Wentz (including playoffs), the Eagles have averaged 277.5 total YPG ... which would have given them the NFL's worst total offense if applied over the full 2017 season
Brady is a profitable bet in his career in the playoffs - but barely.
He's 18-16-1 ATS, so you'd be up $36.38 if you bet $100 on all of them.
NFL Playoffs ... since 1978
Home Dogs
First 2 rounds of Playoffs ... 20-9-1 ATS
Conference Championship Round ... 6-8 ATS
Since the AFC South was formed in 2002 the New England Patriots ...
24-2 SU home record vs teams in that division.
17-game home-winning streak vs teams in that division.
10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs teams in that division.
Jags must sack Brady to cover against the Patriots
Sacking Brady
0-1 ... 90-43-2 ATS
2-3 ... 64-46-6 ATS
4+ ... 13-21-1 ATS
Patriots ATS Win %
AFC Championship Total holding steady at 46.5 on Tuesday.
Jaguars highest total this season was 43, which easily went over in 44-33 loss at SF.
As of today, bettors backing the over.
The playoffs are a showcase for NFL stars, yet overlooked players or aspects often decide which team advance.
Here are two X-factors for each team during conference championship weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Good Bortles or Bad Bortles ... The Jaguars are built on defense and their ability to run the ball. That's partially because QB Blake Bortles has been wildly inconsistent throughout the season. Including the playoffs, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 18-to-3 in victories but 5-to-10 in defeat.
Jags DT Malik Jackson ... Against the Steelers on Sunday, Jacksonville’s pass rush generated some big plays but couldn't apply enough pressure to prevent Ben Roethlisberger from throwing five touchdowns. The key to disrupting Tom Brady and New England’s offense is to push the offensive line — especially the interior — into the pocket and disrupt Brady’s timing.
Been there, done that ... This is the seventh consecutive season the Patriots have reached the AFC Championship Game and the 12th time overall during the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. However the appearance will be just the Jags' third since their inaugural season in 1995. This is a stage that can intimidate young teams and force them into the type of pressure-laden mistakes New England is unlikely to commit.
Quick release ... Few passers get rid of the ball more quickly than Brady. When facing a Jacksonville defense that has elite speed and athleticism at each level, expect Brady to distribute the ball quickly in hopes his play makers can exploit gaps or maybe take advantage of inexperienced defenders overpursuing the play.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Vikings S Harrison Smith ... His ability to line up just about anywhere on the field presents a physical, game-changing presence. Smith is most comfortable near the line of scrimmage and could be a key figure in smothering TE Zach Ertz and Philadelphia’s running game.
Eagles LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai ... Filling in for injured Jason Peters, Vaitai has had an up-and-down stretch. His next matchup will come against star Vikings DE Everson Griffen, who collected 13 sacks in the regular season and one against the Saints in the divisional round. If Griffen can get to QB Nick Foles regularly, disaster could ensue.
Third downs ... Minnesota shredded New Orleans on ever-crucial third downs, going 10-17 (59%). Though the Vikings needed a miracle touchdown at the end to win, if their offense can stay on the field, Philadelphia’s defense could tire with a high volume of snaps.
Turnover margin ... The Eagles ranked fourth in the NFL in takeaway/giveaway differential (plus-11). But in the victory against Atlanta in the divisional round, Philadelphia gave up the ball twice, leading to all 10 of the Falcons' points. The Eagles might not be so lucky if they’re careless again.
Patriots O-line #1 in run blocking per Football Outsiders adjusted line metric
Jaguars defense 28th in same stat
Vikings and Eagles defenses rank in top 6 in pass and rush yards/attempt
Total is 38 points, lowest over/under for a conference title game since 2011
Conference Championship games ... since 1980
Over/Under
Over - 35
Under - 36
Push - 1
The Patriots haven't played on the road since Dec 17.
During that span, the Jags have traveled to San Francisco, Tennessee and Pittsburgh.
By the time the Jags land in New England, they will have traveled around 9387 miles to the Patriots' 0.
The Vikings are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 January road games.
2 of the Patriots 3 losses came against 2 of the 3 best rushing teams they faced this season (KC, Carolina). Miami had 120 yds rushing in the other loss.
The Jags are 1st in the NFL in rush yds per game.
Tom Brady: 286.1 pass YPG this season (1st in NFL)
Jaguars Defense: 169.9 pass YPG allowed this season (1st in NFL)
This is the 4th meeting between the #1 passer and #1 pass defense in a playoff game since 1990
The #1 pass defense is 3-0 in those games
Prior to Stefon Diggs' TD in the Divisional Round, 5 teams in the last 10 seasons had won a playoff game on a walk-off TD to advance to another postseason game that season
All 5 of those teams lost their next game, by an average of 23 points
Since the Jaguars entered the NFL in 1995, they are 1-10 (.091) against the Patriots, including playoff games.
That's the worst winning percentage of any team vs one opponent (min. 10 games) in that span.
Brady ... Conference Championship Games
15 TDs / 12 INTs / 81.7 QB rating
That's his lowest QB rating of any playoff round.