11-19-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Wednesday

Weekly Wipeout Winner-NBA

Portland


Non-Conf GOW NCAAB

St. Louis Billikens


NCAAF Conf. GOY 20 Star

Central Mich

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

Unbeaten Ball State will get their toughest remaining test tonight in Mt. Pleasant against a Chippewas team that is pretty good offensively (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but lacking on the defensive side of the ball (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Ball State is an offensive juggernaut that has averaged 7.2 yppl this season thanks the great passing of Nate Davis (9.0 yards per pass play) and the running of MiQuale Lewis (1273 yards at 5.9 ypr) and they should have no trouble scoring at will in this game while their solid defense (5.2 yppl allowed) keeps the Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas in check. My math model actually gives Ball State a 54% chance of covering the spread at -7 points but the situational analysis is pointing strongly the other way. Ball State applies to a very negative 5-41 ATS late season letdown situation while Central Michigan applies to a 103-46-2 ATS home momentum situation and a 55-19-2 ATS home underdog angle. The technical analysis is very strongly in favor of Central Michigan and I'll lean with the Chippewas plus the points despite my math model favoring Ball State. I'll also lean with the Over in this game.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al?

Small card today from Al. He went 5-0 on 3 unit plays yesterday. Oklahoma was -3.5 when Al released it.

Today all cbb.
1* Wake forest

1* Virginia

1* Villanova

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 5* Hammer CBB Game is Virginia -7 vs USF

[Mr. IWS]

South Florida at Virginia November 19th 07:00 EST Scott Spreitzer


Prediction: Virginia
The Bulls are just 1-23 SU away from home over the last three seasons and with the way this team shoots the rock, they're going to be hard-pressed to win away from home again tonight. The Bulls were able to beat a bad SMU team in Tampa in their opener, despite shooting just 36% from the field while making just 10 of 19 from the charity stripe. They will also have their problems underneath against decent teams because USF has no post presence on either end of the floor after losing Kentrell Gransberry. Playing Virginia away from home is definitely a step-up from SMU. And, while the Cavs may be destined for another NIT appearance, they should have little trouble at home in non-conference action. The Cavs are extremely talented in the backcourt. They may not have the experience coach Dave Leitao would call ideal, but that problem won't rear its head until ACC play. In fact, freshman guard Sylvan Landesberg pumped in 28 points in their opener...a 107-97 win over a VMI team that handed Kentucky a home loss. Also, in forwards Mamadi Diane and Mike Scott, the Cavs can bury USF inside at will. Virginia has been quick out of the gates going 6-1 ATS in their last seven lined November games. Meanwhile, going against USF when they're getting points has padded your bankroll. The Bulls have covered just 11 of their last 35 as an underdog. I'm laying the points with Virginia on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Cent Michigan
Millionaire- St Louis

[Mr. IWS]

doc bob
Wednesday NBA Opinion
Toronto (+3) over MIAMI
These are two of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA and I prefer to take Toronto with the Raptors coming off a loss last night while the Heat won their game last night. Miami has won consecutive games just once this season and has not lost in back-to-back games and the Heat are now 4-19 straight up and 4-19 ATS in their last 23 games following a victory, including 1-4 SU and ATS this season. Toronto, meanwhile, is 44-20-1 ATS the last 3 seasons in games following a loss with star Chris Bosh in the lineup, including 30-8-1 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. These teams played on Sunday night with Toronto coming off a loss and Miami coming off a win and the Raptors won 107-96 as a 3 ½ point home favorite. While I like the team trends in this game, I don’t like the line since Miami should be favored by more than 3 points at home since they’ve been the better team this season overall. I’ll just lean with Toronto at +3 points based on the strong team trends.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp oppinions
ball st
ball st over

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NBA TOTAL

I'm playing on the Heat and Raptors to finish UNDER the total. These teams just played a high-scoring game against each other on the weekend. That was at Toronto though where the Raptors have averaged 102 points per game and where the 'over' is now 4-0 on the season. Toronto hasn't scored nearly as many points on the road. In fact, they've only averaged 90.7 points and have seen the UNDER go 4-1 in five road games. Tonight, they'll take on a revenge-minded Miami squad which is allowing just 87 points per game at home. The Heat have seen three of five home game stay below the total and seven of 11 overall. Sunday's result notwithstanding, the UNDER is a profitable 8-2-1 the last 11 series meetings overall. Lastly, the Heat are coming off a strong defensive performance last night, holding the Wizards to 87 points at Washington in a game that stayed below the total by double-digits. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at a lucrative 13-2 the last 15 times that the Heat played the second of back to back games, including 2-0 already this season. Look for another well-played defensive affair here with the final score proving lower than most are expecting. *blue chip

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NBA

I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. Having recorded three straight victories, the 76ers may be patting themselves on the back a bit here and it will be easy to overlook the lowly T-Wolves. That will be a mistake though. For starters, the 76ers are a money-burning 6-11-1 ATS since 2006 when having won their previous three games. During the same stretch the 76ers have just 13 wins in 34 tries when coming off a double-digit victory. Despite their recent win streak, the note that the 76ers are still below 500 (2-3) on the road this season, getting outscored by a 97.4-91.8 margin in those games. Additionally, the T-Wolves played the 76ers very tough in both games last year. The T-Wolves were 2-0 against the number in those games. The first one was at Philadelphia and the 76ers won by only four points. The T-Wolves bounced back in a big way in the rematch. Listed as 3-point home underdogs, they won outright by a score of 104-88. Most people weren't giving the T-Wolves much of a chance for that game, as they had lost five straight coming in. This year, the T-Wolves have lost eight straight and most aren't giving them much of a chance once again. A closer look shows that they've been extremely competitive in those eigth games though, as the losses have come by an average of less than six points. In fact, despite the skid, Minnesota has gone 3-1 ATS its last four. The T-Wolves are getting excellent production from Al Jefferson, who is averaging 22.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Look for Jefferson to get some help from his supporting cast tonight as the T-Wolves rise to the occasion and upset the 76ers here for the second year in a row. *Non-Conference GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NCAA BASKETBALL

I'm taking the points with TCU. Early results have created excellent value with the home underdog here. The Horned Frogs come in at 1-2 while the Huskers come in a 1-0. Let's not over-react to those results though. Nebraska's victory came at home vs. San Jose State while TCU's three games came at the Charleston Classic. Now the Horned Frogs get to play their home opener while the Huskers will be playing their first road game. The Huskers will be solid defensively and they should have another decent season. However, I don't think that they'll have enough scoring options tonight to keep up with a TCU team which scored 75 points last time out. In addition to the homecourt advantage, I expect the fact that TCU has played three real games (compared to Nebraska's one) to work to the Frogs advantage this evening. With Nebraska at just 6-16-1 ATS (5-18 SU!) its last 23 road games, I'm backing the home dog. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

College Baskets
4% virginia -7.5
3% wake 21.5
3% villanova -16

NBA
4% cleve +3
3% phila -3
3% denver +1
3% utah -10

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Main Event
CENTRAL MICHIGAN

I played on Central Michigan as an underdog last week, while also playing against Ball State as a favorite. While both games ended up quite close to the number, both tickets successfully cashed. This week, once again, I feel that the Chippewas offer excellent value as an underdog while the Cardinals are over-valued (laying too many points) as a favorite. Let's take a look at Ball State first. As you're probably aware, the Cardinals bring a perfect 10-0 record to the table, including a perfect 6-0 mark in conference play. They've got an excellent quarterback and have won every single game by double-digits. That's certainly very impressive. It should be pointed out that Ball State's schedule has been extremely favorable. Their non-conference slate began with 1-AA Northeastern. That was followed by Navy, which was still adjusting to its new coach. Both those games were at home. They did have two non-conference road games but those came against Western Kentucky and Indiana, a pair of teams which finished with a combined 5-17 record. In other words, Central Michigan is the best team that the Cardinals will have seen all year. Before moving on to Central Michigan, it should also be noted that the lines have begun to catch up with the Cardinals, as they are now 1-2 ATS their past three games. Like their guests, the Chippewas come in with a perfect 6-0 record in conference play. Like their guests, the Chippewas also have a bigtime quarterback, one which is coming off one of the best games of his career. They're also an impressive 10-2 overall and the schedule has been much more difficult than Ball State's schedule. Like the Cardinals, the Chippewas won outright at Indiana. Unlike the Cardinals, who will play Western Michigan in their regular season finale, the Chippewas have already beaten Western Michigan, doing so by double-digits. That's worth noting as Western Michigan is an excellent 6-1 in conference play (including the loss to Central Mich.) and 9-2 overall. Both Ball State and Central Michigan beat Northern Illinois but the Cardinals did so at home, while the Chippewas did so on the road, a much tougher task. Additionally, the Chippewas beat Buffalo, the top team from the MAC East this year. Ball State avoided the Bulls. Both losses came on the road. The first was at Georgia and there's no shame in that. The second loss also came vs. a Big 10 opponent, as Central Michigan fell by seven at Purdue. A closer look shows that the Chippewas were playing their third straight road game, something Ball State didn't have to deal with all season. Additionally, the Chippewas were up 25-24 with one minute left in that game, so they very easily could have won. It's true that Ball State comes in with loads of motivation. Not only do the Cardinals need a win to keep their perfect season in tact but they also want to avenge an embarrassing blowout loss suffered at the hands of the Chippewas last season. Ball State was a double-digit home favorite for that game but the Chippewas came into Muncie and beat them by 20. The Chippewas have just as much motivation though. Not only do they want to keep their perfect conference record in tact but this is the first time they have hosted a ranked opponent in five years. That makes this a very big deal for the Chippewas, too. The Chippewas are 10-2 SU/ATS their last 12 home lined games and they're 8-1 ATS their last nine games against a team with a winning record. They're also 4-1-1 ATS the last six times they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to seven point range. I feel the Chippewas are offering excellent value here and I look for them to give the Cardinals by far their toughest test of the season.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

10 Dime Ball St./C Michigan Over

Free Play CMU

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS

I'm taking the points with TCU. Early results have created excellent value with the home underdog here. The Horned Frogs come in at 1-2 while the Huskers come in a 1-0. Let's not over-react to those results though. Nebraska's victory came at home vs. San Jose State while TCU's three games came at the Charleston Classic. Now the Horned Frogs get to play their home opener while the Huskers will be playing their first road game. The Huskers will be solid defensively and they should have another decent season. However, I don't think that they'll have enough scoring options tonight to keep up with a TCU team which scored 75 points last time out. In addition to the homecourt advantage, I expect the fact that TCU has played three real games (compared to Nebraska's one) to work to the Frogs advantage this evening. With Nebraska at just 6-16-1 ATS (5-18 SU!) its last 23 road games, I'm backing the home dog. *Best Bet