11-24-08

PickLogic’s Pick:

Game: San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Sport: National Basketball Association
Date: Monday, November 24, 2008
Time: 5:05 PM Pacific time
Selection: UNDER the "total" of 177, -110
Wager: 1 unit

Break your Bookie

Game of the Year !!!
There is no doubt in our mind about this game. We are so confident that we are risking 3 losses. If we win it counts as three 10 star plays and a loss vice versa. Absolutely pound the Saints.

GAME OF THE YEAR

NFL

10 Stars
SAINTS -1

LuckyDaySports

Monday's Comp Play

20 unit

Green Bay @ New Orleans

Take Green Bay +1

LOGICAL APPROACH

Best of the NFL Totals

Green Bay/New Orleans OVER 51 ½

Nelly's

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2008

NEW ORLEANS (-3) Green Bay (52½) 7:35 PM
The Packers had a great game plan last week and finally were able to
run the ball. Green Bay has five losses but all came against teams that
are .500 or better. The Saints have not won consecutive games all
season long but this will be the first home since mid-October for New
Orleans. The Saints have not had success in the home favorite role
Green Bay ’s defense continues to make big plays. A lot of points could
be scored here and the dog makes sense. PACKERS BY 4

POINTWISE

MONDAY
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Green Bay 26 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- First HG for the Saints
since Oct 12th. Bring top-ranked "O" into this one, but just a 5-5 record, as their overland game ranks 26th, & their "D" ranks 24th. Check Brees with 1,027 PYs last 3 outings, but Saints being outrushed in their last 4 games. The Pack has covered 5 straight, & in off snapping 2-game SU slide (3 & 1 pt losses), with that 37-3 wipeout of the Bears. Rodgers: 22-of-30, & 200 RYs, to boot (Grant: 145). The Packers are on a 15-5 ATS road run, while the Saints are 9-18 ATS at home, off a SU/ATS win. The spread is truly minuscule, but we will call this even closer.

STATFOX

11/24/2008 (225) GREEN BAY at (226) NEW ORLEANS
I brought up the term “false favorites” before. New Orleans could
easily apply in this situation, as teams with defenses as poor as the
Saints never make for good chalk. HC Sean Payton’s team is giving up
a healthy 24.9 PPG and 5.7 YPP. The Packers have thrived on such
teams under Mike McCarthy: McCarthy is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. bad
defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of
GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 26.7, OPPONENT
14.2 - (Rating = 1*). Green Bay showed its makeup last week in routing
Chicago, as McCarthy was able to instill a sense of urgency after losses
to Tennessee and Minnesota. With a +6.4 Outplay Factor Rating, Green
Bay is climbing the charts quickly. Meanwhile, the Saints are in mediocre
land at +0.6. That tells me the wrong club is favored. Barring turnover
concerns, the Packers should get it done here.
Play: Green Bay +2.5

TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:

1. NEW ENGLAND (+2.5) over MIAMI 16
2. GREEN BAY (+3) over NEW ORLEANS 13
3. JACKSONVILLE (-1.5) over MINNESOTA 6.5


TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. GREEN BAY (+3) over NEW ORLEANS 9
2. TAMPA BAY (-9) over DETROIT 7
3. PITTSBURGH (-11) over CINCINNATI 5

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (Monday, November 24)...Saints
“over” 19-9 last 28 since late ‘06, and 3-1 as Superdome chalk TY
after subpar 3-11 mark in role past two seasons. Pack “over” 12-
4 last 14 on road. Pack also 7-1 last 8 as road dog since McCarthy
arrived in ‘06. Tech edge-“Over” and Packers, based on
“totals” and team trends

SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-

GREEN BAY over New Orleans (11/24).

DATAMAN ( GILBERT)

Monday
NO

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

4 BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay by 13
Both teams line up under the Monday night lights off double-digit wins
and covers last week, jockeying for position in this year’s playoff picture
with four other teams each with 5 wins on the season. Thus, this is a
crucial game for both clubs. The 5-5 Pack has tanked on the road in
November in games off a double-digit win, going 2-11 ATS. Meanwhile,
thanks to their No. 1 ranked offense, the 5-5 Saints have managed to
outgain all but two foes in total yardage this season. With New Orleans
looking to ‘Prove It All Night’, expect the Saints to improve to 5-1 SU
and ATS at home in the Dome this season. N’Awlins, in a Brees

JB'S COMPUTER PLAYS

Monday, November 24
Green Bay Packers +2½

Norm Hitzges

NFL

Triple Play--Green Bay +2.5 vs New Orleans

Single Play--Green Bay/New Orleans Over 51.5

Spylock

NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars

11/24/08 Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers +2.5 3
8:40 PM New Orleans Saints -2.5

Wild Bill

Packers +3 (5 units)
Over 53 Packers-Saints (5 units)

Sixth Sense

NEW ORLEANS –2.5 Green Bay 51.5

Packers destroyed Chicago last week 37-3 and out gained the Bears 6.3yppl to 4.3yppl. Most surprising in that game was they rushed for 200 yards at 5.3ypr and held the Bears to just 4.3ypr. They also out passed Chicago 7.6yps to 4.4yps. The Saints went to KC and defeated the Chiefs 30-20, out gaining them 5.8yppl to 5.0yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 4.9yps. They were out rushed in the game 5.2ypr to 3.7ypr. For the season, the Packers are now average rushing the ball, averaging 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr. But, they average 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.1ypr but the Saints don’t rush the ball well, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr. GB allows just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and is getting better and healthier in the secondary. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall. The Saints average 7.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. On defense they allow 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. NO qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. Both teams actually qualify in a scheduling situation as long as this line is less than three points. If it is three points or higher, the Saints would not qualify. That situation is 65-25-2. The Saints also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 114-47-8. Numbers favor the Saints by just 1.5 points and predict about 57 points. The Saints are just 1-5 SU this year against .500 or better teams. The Packers are 3-5 SU in the same role but three of those five losses were by three points or less. The situations favoring GB are a little stronger as is the value. I have gone against GB three weeks in a row now and lost each of those weeks, although the Packers lost two of those three games but still managed to cover the spread. The Packers strength is their pass defense and throwing the ball. That matches up well against the Saints. Also, GB seems to have gained some momentum last week with their victory over the Bears and with their health getting better this is a good spot for them here. Total is a little too high for me to bite on the over. GREEN BAY 33 NEW ORLEANS 27

BEST BETS

YTD 38-20-1 +48.00%

3% GREEN BAY +2.5

Sunshine Forecast
==================
NFL Computer Predictions


Monday, November 24, 2008

Green Bay Packers (+2½) at New Orleans Saints

Power Rating Projection:

Green Bay Packers 26 New Orleans Saints 25


Statistical Projections

Green Bay Packers 29
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 246
Turnovers: 1

New Orleans Saints 28
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 289
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Green Bay Packers 35 New Orleans Saints 34

NBA
Write-up


Monday, November 24

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won five of their last six games.
-- Bucks are 9-1-1 vs spread in their last eleven games. Magic won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Rockets won four of their last five games.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games.
-- Portland is 4-0 at home, winning by 1-2-4-42 points.
-- Hornets won last two games, but covered just two of last nine.

Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost four in row, six of last seven games.
-- Miami is 1-5 vs spread in the game following a win.
-- Grizzlies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Bulls are 0-7 on the road (3-4 vs spread). Jazz lost four of their last five games.
-- Kings lost last five games, by 2-2-15-21-10 points.
-- Clippers lost 11 of their first 13 games.

Totals
-- Under is 10-1-1 in Charlotte games this season.
-- Seven of last ten Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Memphis games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Chicago games went over the total.
-- Last three Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Clipper games went over the total; seven of the last nine Hornet games stayed under.

NHL
Write-up


Monday, November 24

Hot teams
-- Flyers won last four games, outscoring foes 13-7.
-- Islanders won four of their last five games.
-- Hurricanes won three of their last four games.
-- Washington won six of its last seven games.
-- Red Wings won their last five games, outscoring foes 20-10. Canucks won three in row, nine of last 12 games.
-- Colorado won four of last six games, with last four wins in SO.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost their last two games, allowing ten goals. Coyotes lost last five games, outscored 19-10.
-- Dallas Stars lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Canadiens lost six of their last nine games.
-- Panthers lost three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota lost its last two games, scoring total of three goals.
-- Ducks lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Three of last four Phoenix road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Florida games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-0-2 in last eleven Minnesota games.
-- Eight of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Anaheim games stayed under the total.

NFL


Monday, November 24

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GREEN BAY (5 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 5) - 11/24/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Green Bay: 7-0 ATS in dome games
New Orleans: 31-53 ATS as home favorite
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks - Monday November 24, 2008 10:05 pm
Pick: 1 unit MONEYLINE: Vancouver Canucks +140



Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Vancouver (NHL) – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-25 making 25.1 units since 1996 with the average play a +122.2 dog. Play against road favorites against the money line off a road win by 2 goals or more in November games. Vancouver off to a fast start this season and are in position for a solid home win against one of the elite teams in the NHL. Note that Vancouver is 8-2 against the money line (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a victorious record this season. Detroit is also playing their third straight road game placing them into a difficult situation of 140-95 against the money line, but losing -47.4 units. Vancouver has a strong offense that is not relying on the power play. They have scored 66 goals in 21 games and 17 goals in their last 5 games. They are only converting 16.7% of their PP opportunities, but they have had more than twice as many PP than opponents. Vancouver has allowed a PP conversion percentage of just 11.9 on only 42 chances for 5 goals. Detroit’s PP is working at a very high level converting 33% of their 81 opportunities, but Vancouver has the PP killing unit that matches up very well against a road weary Detroit team. Moreover, Detroit has allowed opponents to convert PP opportunities at a poor 22.2% of the time. Take Vancouver.