Super Bowl Info, trends, systems

[Chico1856]

Lets see how much we can put together for the last game of the year...

Play on the super bowl team that allowed 3pts or less the most times during the regular season: PLAY ON PITT

Record: 25-14-3

PITT: 1
ZONA: 0


Play on the Super Bowl team that allowed less than 10 pts the most times during the regular season: PLAY ON PITT

Record: 18-8-2

PITT: 4
ZONA: 0



Play ON a Super Bowl team that covered in their conference championship game if the opponent did not cover in their game.

Record: 6-1-1

If both teams covered, play on team with more overall wins

Record: 17-4-2

PLAY ON PITT

[Chico1856]

SU Winner of the SuperBowl is 34-5-3 ATS

[Mr. IWS]

SU Winner of the SuperBowl is 34-5-3 ATS

Very powerful trend. I know the Eagles covered though, the year they lost to NE.

[Chico1856]

Arizona Cardnials Super Bowl Press release

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Do ... r_Bowl.pdf

[Chico1856]

Hank Stram System
Unless noted use stats from the regular season only.

1. Award 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last THREE years. (Pitt)
2. Award 8.0 points to any team whose OPPONENT is playing in their very first Super Bowl in Franchise history. (PITT)
3. Award 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes (PITT)
4. Award 7.0 points to the team with the best OVERALL SU win/loss record including playoffs(PITT)
5. Award 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes. (PITT)
6. Award 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry. (PITT)
7. Award 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt Touch Down returns. (ARI)
8. Award 4.0 points to the team the team with the better ATS record. (Push)
9. Award 4.0 points to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards. (PIT)
10. Award 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt. (ARI)
11. Award 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points. (PITT)
12. Award 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing Touch Downs. (PITT)
13. Award 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks. (PIT)
14. Award 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts. (PITT)
15. Award 2.0 points to the team that had the best NET punts (total) on the year. (ARI)
16. Award 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush. (Pitt)
17. Award 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.(ARI)

The outright winner is predicted once all of the points have been awarded to each team (to which they apply)then subtract the difference in points and it will predict the winning margin.

Going into this year's Super Bowl this system now stand at an amazing rate of 33-7-2 ATS ( 82.5 % )

Results: Pitt 63 Ari10.5 (margin 52.5)

[Luke]

SU Winner of the SuperBowl is 34-5-3 ATS

Very powerful trend. I know the Eagles covered though, the year they lost to NE.

So did Carolina when they played NE ,I remember I bet both

[Chico1856]

Here are the 5 Win SU, Lose ATS SuperBowls

Win SU, lose ATS

SB XXXIX NE -7 VS. PHILLLY (WON BY 3)
SB XXXVIII NE -7 VS CAROLINA (WON BY 3)
SB XXX DALLAS -13.5 VS PITT (WON BY 10)
SB XXIII SF -7 VS CINCI (WON BY 4)
SB X PITT -7 VS DALLAS (WON BY 4)

[Chico1856]

The 2008 Steelers are as good as the Steel Curtain

Taken from WEEI via CHFF's

The 2008 Steelers stacked up well defensively against the 1976 Steelers, easily the best of the Steel Curtain defenses.

The 1976 Steelers pitched five shutouts over the last nine games of the year and surrendered a stunning total of just 28 points over that stretch. Here’s how Lambert, Greene & Co. stack up against Harrison, Polamalu & Co.

Against the Run

1976 Steelers – 3.22 YPA

2008 Steelers – 3.29 YPA



Against the Pass

2008 Steelers – 4.71 YPA

1976 Steelers – 5.0 YPA


Yards per Game

2008 Steelers – 237.2 YPG

1976 Steelers – 237.4 YPG


Those comparisons are amazing considering that offenses are so much more prolific today than they were in 1976. The 2008 Steelers had to work harder and perform better to get similar results.

The most important indicator, of course, is scoring defense. This is one area where the 1976 Steelers held a clear advantage: they surrendered just 9.9 PPG, compared with the 13.9 PPG surrendered by this year’s squad.

But it’s not a fair comparison: the average team in 1976 scored just 19.2 PPG, while the average team here in 2008 scored 22.0 PPG.

Plus, the 1976 Steelers played against field goal kickers who converted just 58 percent of attempts. Pittsburgh’s opponents in 2008 converted 89 percent of their attempts. It resulted in a difference of 2 PPG each way.

[Luke]

Here are the 5 Win SU, Lose ATS SuperBowls

Win SU, lose ATS

SB XXXIX NE -7 VS. PHILLLY (WON BY 3)
SB XXXVIII NE -7 VS CAROLINA (WON BY 3)
SB XXX DALLAS -13.5 VS PITT (WON BY 10)
SB XXIII SF -7 VS CINCI (WON BY 4)
SB X PITT -7 VS DALLAS (WON BY 4)

I could only remember Philly and Carolina and that was only because they were recent and I bet on them.

[Chico1856]

Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl Press Release:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Do ... r_Bowl.pdf

[Chico1856]

A Case for the Cardnials

By John Dudley via CHFF's

Much like a detective or trial lawyer, the Super Bowl is about cases.

When Pittsburgh and Arizona square off on Sunday, players from each side will be battling cases of the nerves. Both teams will be seeking to add hardware to their trophy cases. And the winners will spray and swill several cases of champagne.

But in the buildup to Super Bowl XLIII, the most important cases are those that can be made for each team.

As touchdown underdogs, the Cardinals aren’t being given much chance to emerge victorious. Their run to the NFC championship is largely seen as a fluke by the pigskin “pundits.” On paper, the Steelers are clearly the better team.

Yet this season’s final game may not be a foregone conclusion. We’re on the case – and our extensive research reveals three Cold, Hard Football Facts that bode well for Arizona.

ONE – Points aplenty
The Cardinals are the only team to advance to the Super Bowl by scoring at least 30 points in all three of their postseason games.

Twelve other teams have previously won three playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, including the last three champions (2005 Steelers, 2006 Colts and 2007 Giants). But none of them did so by hanging 30 or more points on each opponent.

Including the regular-season finale, the Cardinals have actually scored 30 or more points in four straight games. Here’s a recap:
beat Seahawks 34-21 in Week 17
beat Falcons 30-24 in Wild Card Playoffs
beat Panthers 33-13 in Divisional Playoffs
beat Eagles 32-25 in Conference Championship
Three previous teams have entered the Super Bowl on scoring streaks of 30+ points in three or more consecutive games, and all of them went on to capture the title. Here’s a look at how their runs culminated in championships:

1983 Raiders
beat Chargers 30-14 in Week 16
beat Steelers 38-10 in Divisional Playoffs
beat Seahawks 30-14 in Conference Championship
beat Redskins 38-9 in Super Bowl

1995 Cowboys
beat Cardinals 37-13 in Week 17
beat Eagles 30-11 in Divisional Playoffs
beat Packers 38-27 in Conference Championship
beat Steelers 27-17 in Super Bowl

1996 Packers
beat Broncos 41-6 in Week 15
beat Lions 31-3 in Week 16
beat Vikings 38-10 in Week 17
beat 49ers 35-14 in Divisional Playoffs
beat Panthers 30-13 in Conference Championship
beat Patriots 35-21 in Super Bowl

Not only were these high-scoring teams victorious in the Super Bowl, but they all won by double digits.

TWO – Stingy run defense
The Cardinals have held each of their first three playoff opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards.

Stopping the run is often critical to postseason success, and both of the Super Bowl combatants are cases in point. The Steelers limited San Diego and Baltimore to just 15 and 73 rushing yards, respectively. But consider how the Cardinals have likewise put the clamps on the opposition’s ground game:
held Falcons to 60 rushing yards on 24 carries
held Panthers to 75 rushing yards on 15 carries
held Eagles to 97 rushing yards on 18 carries
What’s even more impressive is that Arizona has faced three of the league’s premier running backs and limited each of them to less than 75 yards from scrimmage. Here are their meager numbers:

Running Back (Team) Att. Yards Rec. Yards Total
Michael Turner (Falcons) 18 42 1 7 49
DeAngelo Williams (Panthers) 12 63 1 6 69
Brian Westbrook (Eagles) 12 45 2 26 71


Only five previous teams have advanced to the Super Bowl by holding three playoff opponents below 100 rushing yards. Two of them played each other, meaning one of them had to lose, but the other four became champions. Here’s the rundown:

1980 Raiders
held Oilers to 97 rushing yards on 33 carries
held Browns to 85 rushing yards on 27 carries
held Chargers to 83 rushing yards on 23 carries

1982 Redskins
held Lions to 95 rushing yards on 21 carries
held Vikings to 79 rushing yards on 18 carries
held Cowboys to 65 rushing yards on 21 carries

1982 Dolphins
held Patriots to 77 rushing yards on 18 carries
held Chargers to 79 rushing yards on 17 carries
held Jets to 62 rushing yards on 24 carries

2005 Steelers
held Bengals to 84 rushing yards on 20 carries
held Colts to 58 rushing yards on 14 carries
held Broncos to 97 rushing yards on 21 carries

2006 Colts
held Chiefs to 44 rushing yards on 17 carries
held Ravens to 83 rushing yards on 20 carries
held Patriots to 93 rushing yards on 24 carries

With the exception of the ’82 Dolphins, who fell to the similarly stout Redskins following a strike-shortened season, all of these teams won the Super Bowl by double digits.

THREE – Nobody beats the Whis
Combining his games as offensive coordinator of the Steelers and head coach of the Cardinals, Ken Whisenhunt is 8-1 in the postseason.

After serving as a tight ends coach, Whisenhunt began running Pittsburgh’s offense in 2004. The team responded by posting a remarkable 15-1 record in the regular season and defeating the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs. Then, in the AFC title game, the Steelers lost to the eventual-champion Patriots.

The next year, Whisenhunt’s play calling helped lead Pittsburgh to a 4-0 postseason. His defining moment was undoubtedly the reverse pass from Antwaan Randle El to Hines Ward that sealed a 21-10 win over Seattle in Super Bowl XL.

With a victory on Sunday, Whisenhunt can become just the fourth head coach to win four games in his first postseason. Here’s a look at his prolific predecessors:

Coach (Team) First Postseason (Record) Playoff Wins To Start Career
Tom Flores (Raiders) 1980 (4-0) 5
Joe Gibbs (Redskins) 1982 (4-0) 6
Brian Billick (Ravens) 2000 (4-0) 5


Whisenhunt would certainly be thrilled to follow the same path of Flores, Gibbs and Billick. Like he did, all of them failed to make the playoffs in their debut season. But in their second year, they advanced to the Super Bowl and – this may sound familiar – won by double digits.

Of course, none of the cases mentioned here will have any bearing on Sunday’s outcome. The Steelers are a very tough opponent, and the Cardinals will need to execute at a very high level in order to prevail.

But when picking a winner, all of this historical data should probably be considered … just in case

[Chico1856]

http://www.peta.org/content/standalone/ ... fault.aspx



Peta SuperBowl Ad that was banned from airing

[Chico1856]

LVSC Super Bowl Projected Boxscore


http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/Su ... _LVSC_.pdf


perhaps some help for the props

[Chico1856]

Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-7 SU & 31-8-3 ATS (78.9%).

Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 37-5 SU & 32-7-3 ATS (81.6%).

In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.

Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-11 SU & 29-10-3 ATS.

Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-1 SU & 31-5-1 ATS. In ’08, New York ran for more yards, passed for more yards per attempt, and possessed the ball longer than New England.

Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots, further indicating that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.

ATS and Money Line Trends


Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.

Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.

The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.

The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.

The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.

The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).

Over/Under Trends


There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.

Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.

The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.

The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.


Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 53-39 ATS (57.6%).
Record in ’09: 8-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Pittsburgh

Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 21-15 ATS (58.3%)
Record in ’09: 3-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona

Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 23-16 ATS (59.0%)
Record in ’09: 4-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona