11-29-08

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp CFB

Oregon State -3

Triple Dime

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners

NCAA Football
3 star Rice +3 over Houston
3 star Oregon +3 over Oregon St.
3 star Missouri -16 over Kansas St.

NBA
1 star Wizards -1 over Hawks
1 star Timberwolves +4.5 over Denver
1 star Bucks +7 over Cavs

NCAA Hoops
1 star Detroit +2 over St. Louis
1 star Kentucky +8 over West Virginia
1 star California -3.5 over Fla. St

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens

10-1 NBA run

Wash/Atl under 200.5

[Mr. IWS]

Dominic Brando Sports High Volume Program 2008-09 NCAA/NFL Football Records Grid:
NFL/NCAA Teaser Club 10-1-0 for +930.00 Units (Special 150 Units 1-0, Top 100 Units 9-1-0)
NCAA ATS Plays 78-61-5/+630.00 Units (Special 150 Units 9-8, Top 100 Units 64-53-4, Reg 50 Units 5-0)
NCAA Money Lines 17-20/+98.75 Units (Top 100 Units 2-0, Regular 50 Units 9-10, Light 25 Units 6-10)
NFL Regular Season ATS Plays 49-35-0 for +630.00 Units (Special 150 Units 10-7, Top 100 Units 39-28)
NFL Regular Season Money Line Plays 17-20/-25.00 Units (Regular 50 Units 11-11, Light 25 Units 6-9)

Dominic Brando Sports Saturday NCAA College Football High Volume Program Report #1:
NCAA Special 150 Unit Executive Max Out: #363 OKLAHOMA -6/-130 over Oklahoma State
NCAA Special 150 Unit Executive Max Out: #379 SOUTH CAROLINA PICK/-115 over Clemson
NCAA Top Rated 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #342 BOSTON COLLEGE -6/-115 over Maryland
NCAA Top Rated 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #371 FLORIDA -15/-120 over Florida State
NCAA Top Rated 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #374 TENNESSEE -3/-130 over Kentucky

Pending NFL/NCAA Teaser Club Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock 4 Team 14 Point Teaser Isolation:
1) #305 TENNESSEE TITANS +3.5 over Detroit Lions (Winner 47-10)
2) #308 DALLAS COWBOYS +1.5 over Seattle Seahawks (Winner 34-9)
3) #318 MISSISSIPPI REBELS PICK over Mississippi State Bulldogs (In-Action/Pending)
4) #352 MEMPHIS TIGERS +1.5 over Tulane Green Wave (Saturday 3:30 PM ET)

[Mr. IWS]

ras 2 unit side
idaho st

[Mr. IWS]

Mark Lawrence


* GOM Florida State

[Mr. IWS]

Stu's 100 DIME College Football Rivalry Game of the Year (SF1)

Kansas (69) vs Missouri (-16) @ Kansas City - 12:30 p.m. EST




I have played against an overrated Kansas team several times this year and will do so again this afternoon as Missouri, which was denied a chance at so much (conference title, BCS bowl) with a loss to the Jayhawks last year, gains some serious revenge with this win and cover. Statistically, the Tigers are better than Kansas in scoring, scoring defense, total offense and total defense, passing offense and passing defense, passing efficiency and pass defense efficiency, kickoff returns, punting, kickoff coverage, field goal and PAT kicking, sacks, sacks against, first downs gained and third-down conversions. Don’t count on Mizzou looking ahead to next week’s Big 12 championship game as the Tigers don’t even know who they’ll be facing. Their attention is squarely focused on beating the Jayhawks. Chase Daniel has been hot under center for Mizzou and in his last two games versus Kansas he has tossed for more than 700 yards, seven TDs and no INTs. He gets standout TE Chase Coffman back in the lineup today and he and WR Jeremy Maclin should have big games. Also, Tiger RB Derrick Washington should pick up big yards on this suspect KU defense that ranks just eighth in the conference. KU has a poor pass rush and the secondary has only 10 picks this season. No wonder the Jayhawks’ pass defense is ranked 114th in the country. On offense, KU is hobbling as both QB Todd Reesing and WR Kerry Meier will play but aren’t 100 percent. RB Jake Sharp is listed as doubtful with an undisclosed injury. The offensive line has had protection issues and is facing a Missouri defense that is steadily improving. Against Big 12 North foes this year, the Tigers’ No. 1 unit has allowed just four TD drives. Free safety William Moore has been a stud and the Tiger defense will come to play. And the Tigers have a decided advantage in the special teams and the KU return units have been very sub-par. Kansas has been a pretender in big games this year and against upper echelon teams like Mizzou such as Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Nebraska and Texas, the Hawks are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS (backdoor cover) being outscored by 24 ppg and out-gained by 153 ypg. Missouri will have a decided crowd advantage and comes in 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games. The straight-up winner has covered 10 straight meetings and that’s not changing this afternoon as Missouri rolls.





MISSOURI (-16) 100 Dimes
Stu's 75 DIME College Football No Brainers (Two Pack) (SF2)







Baylor (71) at Texas Tech (-22) - 3:30 p.m. EST



Humiliated last week at Oklahoma, the Red Raiders of Texas Tech still have tons to play for and they will bounce back in style and post a huge number in covering this number against Baylor. Seventh-ranked Texas Tech can still claim a spot in the Big 12 title game with as win this afternoon and an Oklahoma loss later this evening at Oklahoma State. They know they have to take care of business first and they have much respect for this much-improved Baylor outfit. But the Bears will have their hands more than full with this Red Raider offense that is averaging 45.5 ppg and 551 ypg. Baylor has really struggled in the past against Mike Leach’s offenses as Texas Tech (which has won 12 straight over the Bears) has completed 70 percent of its passes for a 27-to-6 TD-INT ratio and averaged 470 passing yards the last six meetings. This game is in Lubbock and it’s Senior Day. At home this year, the Red Raiders are outscoring opponents by 25 ppg and out-gaining them by 232 ypg. On the road this year, Baylor is being outscored by 17 ppg and out-gained by 149 ypg. Baylor has the nation’s 84th ranked pass defense and is facing Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree and a Texas Tech offense that is ranked third overall in the country. With a chance to tie school records for single-season wins and conference victories, this will be a focused Red Raiders team today. Texas Tech has covered 14 of its last 18 home finales and is a series run of 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS the last 17 meetings. In winning 12 straight over Baylor, Texas Tech has won by an average margin of 30 ppg. Yes Baylor has gotten a lot out of freshman QB Robert Griffin this year, but this is a Texas Tech defense that had played well this year before getting steamrolled on the ground last week by the Sooners. Baylor will not be able to push around Texas Tech like OU did last week in Norman, and while Griffin will make some plays, he and the Bears won’t be able to keep pace. The Red Raiders were embarrassed on national TV last week, but the team is 21-10 ATS off a scoreboard loss and they have everything in the world to play for this afternoon. Leach will have them ready and the Red Raiders will score early and often in winning this game by four touchdowns or more.




TEXAS TECH (-22) 75 Dimes








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Tulane (51) at Memphis (-14) - 3:30 p.m. EST



Memphis is as healthy as its been in a long, long time. Tulane is battered and bruised on both sides of the football. The Tigers need this win to become bowl eligible. Tulane, losers of seven straight, just wants this nightmare season to end. And it will today at the Liberty Bowl as Memphis dominates the Green Wave and wins this by at least three touchdowns. Memphis is on a 10-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS runs in this series and have won the last four by an average score of 38-19. Last week, despite out-gaining Central Florida by a 305-194 margin (allowed just 42 yards in the second half), the Tigers blew a chance to become bowl eligible as they allowed a fumble returned for a score and had a blocked punt to set up another as they fell 28-21. That game was QB Arkelon Hall’s first back after a month off due to a thumb injury. He was rusty, but he’ll be much better today against a woeful Tulane defense that gave up 56 points last week to Tulsa, but more importantly 593 yards including a whopping 489 rushing yards! Not only is Hall healthy again, but so is RB Curtis Steele and his backup Charlie Jones. Steele battled illness and a stout Central Florida run defense last week, but he should run and run and run (Tigers average 190 yrg) against this porous Green Wave that ranks second-to-last in C-USA in run defense and is ranked 103rd in the nation in scoring defense. Tulane is last in the country in tackles for losses (Memphis had 11 tackles for loss in last week’s game alone). This Tulane defense has allowed at least 500 yards in three straight games. Offensively, they’re ranked 112th in the country in scoring and have lost star RB Andre Anderson, another RB in Albert Williams and top WR Jeremy Williams to season-ending injuries. The three had accounted for 15 of the team’s 22 touchdowns. The Memphis defense, ranked third in the conference against the pass, has gotten back DT Clinton McDonald from injury and the Tigers will be able to stuff this weak Tulane offense. Twenty of the Tigers’ 25 seniors are in the two-deep depth chart (two more would be if not for injury) and on Senior Day and with an opportunity to become bowl eligible, the Tigers will roll big time over a Tulane squad (losers of five straight by double digits) that is riddled with injury and has all but quit. Memphis big time.



MEMPHIS (-14) 75 Dimes
King's 80 DIME Saturday College Football Trifecta (BK1)









South Carolina (40') at Clemson (-1) - Noon, EST





Spurrier is coming off the worst loss of his college coaching career and I am sure the Gamecocks are coming off the longest two weeks of practice in a long time. The truth is that South Carolina is a few key players short of being a powerhouse program.



Spurrier's former program, the Gators, humiliated him 56-6 two weeks ago and Spurrier will not need much more incentive than that to have his team ready. There is only one thing South Carolina fans would like more than beating Clemson and that is doing it on the Tigers home field. These two teams hate each other and South Carolina has been looking for blood since last year and these two weeks, after the Gator loss, have been plenty of time for the 'Cocks to prepare.




Spurrier can even up his SU mark against Clemson with a win in Death Valley today. Tommy Bowden was able to dominate South Carolina during his tenure but with Bowden relieved of his coaching duties and "newbie" head coach Swinney at the help Clemson will be outmatched on the coaching end for certain.



Clemson is 2-9 ATS in season finales and 0-5 ATS off a SU win. Spurrier on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in season finales off of a loss (3-0 as a dog) and South Carolina is on a 5-0-1 ATS run after a double digit ATS loss.



The last 3 in this series have been decided by less than nine points and you can expect the tenacious defensive front of South Carolina to test the sub par "O-Line" of Clemson. The Gamecocks are playing to be New Years Bowl Eligible for the first time under Spurrier.



Clemson has only a slight offensive edge while the defensive and strength of schedule edge is clearly the Gamecocks. Look for South Carolina to get their pound of flesh this week, after the embarassing Gators loss, in a game that will be a battle of field position and decided by less than 7.



Take South Carolina with the revenge factor and Gator loss big motivators. South Carolina plus the point is the play.





South Carolina (+1) 40 Dimes







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Houston (78') at Rice (+3) - 3:30 p.m. EST



I feel Houston is not getting enough credit today after their poor showing last week in which they had to come back late to get the win and keep their hopes of winning the Conference USA West alive. Now in a position to clinch the West title you can expect a different Cougar team to show up today.



Even though Houston let UTEP stay in that game they still outgained them 700-462 and Houston is now averaging 678 ypg and 51 ppg over the last 3 games. I am hearing all about Rice QB Clement and he is talented and the all time Conference USA TD leader. He averages over 300 ypg and has a 36:7 ratio. But look at Keenum. Keenum is averaging 389 ypg with a 69% completion percentage and a 38:9 ratio while leading the number two passing offense in the country.



Houston is just 1-4 ATS on the road going to face a Rice squad that has won 5 in a row (4-1 ATS). These schools are just 5 miles apart however so Rice's home field advantage is minimized with what is expected to be a strong Houston showing. Houston has won three straight in this series (1-2 ATS) but they were laying big numbers the last 3 years. This year heading into this game Rice's strong last 5 and Houston's poor showing last week when favored by 17 have gotten us tremendous value with this low line.



I know Clement is playing his last game in front of the home crowd but this game is just too big for Keenum and Houston. Last Keenum and company torched the Rice "D" for 21 unanswered points and a shocking come from behind win. Houston amassed 748 yards of offense in that game and they have only improved. Houston's defensive leaks won't be enough to keep Rice in this game. Houston got caught looking ahead last week. They are ready today. Houston comes in with a clear statistical advantage. Take Houston minus the small number to win easily today at Rice.





HOUSTON (-3) 20 Dimes





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Oregon (58) at Oregon State (-3) - 7:00 p.m. EST



Analysis By 1 PM, EST



OREGON (+3) 20 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso other BB
5 units Ball St -4.5
4 units WVU -7.5
3 units W Carolina -7.5
3 units Mavs -5

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 50 unit BB
South Florida -4

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky
6* South Carolina +1
4* Georgia -7.5


6* Memphis -13.5
4* Florida/Flor St Under 56
4* Oregon/Oregon State Under 58


6* 9-11 in football
4* 89-62 in football

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

North Carolina at Duke
Prediction: Duke

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Duke - AiS shows an 80% probability that Duke will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Duke will not gain more than 250 net passing yards. Note that UNC is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 52-22 ATS for 70% since 1992, Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points poor rushing team gaining 100-140 RY/game against a team with an average rushing defense allowing 140-190 RY/game and after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

Florida at Florida St
Prediction: Florida St

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Florida State - AiS shows an 82% probability that FSU will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 32-8 ATS for 80% since 1997. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing D allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game and after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. Here is a second and very simple system that has gone 29-6 ATS for 83% Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win. Fine tuning this system to include only Saturday games produces 90% ATS winning percentage. FSU is also a strong 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of > 75% since 1992. Bowden is a solid 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since being the HC of FSU, whihc is a long, very long, time. Take FSU.


Southern Miss at SMU
Prediction: SMU

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on SMU - AiS shows an 82% probability that SMU will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 42-11 ATA for 79% since 2002. Play against road favorites team with a turnover differential of +0.75/game or better facing a team with a differential of -0.75/game or worse, in conference games. Here is a second system that has gone 74-33 ATS for 69% since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games with an experienced QB returning as starter. SM has ripped off 3 straight wins and covered all three as well. Note, however, that SM is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. SMU HC JIm Jones is in a solid role noting that he is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off 2 straight losses against conference rivals in all games he has coached since 1992. Take SMU

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 50 unit BB
South Florida -4

[Mr. IWS]

RAS

7:00pm Pacific - #568 Portland -2.5 for 1 UNIT

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback
4* under ok st 75

4* memphis -13 1/2

hoops
under denver..4*

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Vernon Croy
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -113 Philadelphia Flyers Play Title: Eastern Conference Game of the Month
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
20 Units, Take Philadelphia ML, We are getting solid value here Saturday night with the overall better team and this pick falls into one of my top NHL systems. The Leafs have allowed an average of 4 goals per game over their last 5 games and they are also winless in their last 5 games. The Flyers come into this game on a high winning 6 of their last 7 games including 3 on the road against a lot better teams than the Leafs. The Leafs have struggled killing penalties at home this season with opponents converting 27.5% against them with the extra man and the Flyers penalty kill has been solid with opponents converting just 3.9% against them over their last 5 games. The Leafs are just 5-16 in their last 21 games when their opponents score 2 goals or less in their previous game and the Flyers are 5-1 in their last 6 games when playing with no days rest. Take Philadelphia as my Eastern Conference Game of the Month and make sure you get on my CFB Rivalry Game of the Year that goes tonight.