1/1/09

Dr. Bob

Rotation #254 Cincinnati (-2) 3-Stars at -2 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -3 (-1.20 odds or less).

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25* cfb Penn state

[Mr. IWS]

big al

opinion on Mich St
opinion on Penn St
3* south carolina
3* cincy
4* nebraska

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness New Years Day Plays

9* Bowl Total

I begin this analysis by quoting myself in my first 20* bowl total of the 2008-09 bowl season. I took West Va and North Carolina 'over 46' and the teams combined for 35 first-quarter points and a game which finished 31-30 West Va, was 'over' with nine minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Here's how I concluded that analysis. "West Va's averaged 41.3 PPG in Pat White's previous three bowl wins and the games have averaged 74.0 PPG. Throw in West Va's other four bowl games this decade where those contests finished with totals of 48, 48, 70 and 87 points, and West Va bowl games have averaged 67.6 PPG this decade! While West Va's defense is top-notch (15.9 PPG allowed / ranked 9th), I see White excelling once again and North Carolina playing along right." Often times, handicapping has a lot to do with 'feel.' My 'feel' here is that "the old ball coach" has more than a few surprises in store for Kirk Ferentz and his Hawkeyes on January 1 in Tampa. Spurrier's Gamecocks can't run the ball at all, averaging 98.3 YPG (ranks 108th) with an average of 2.9 per rush. His Fun 'n Gun offense has had little 'punch' this year as QB Chris Smelley's play has resembled his name (56.5% with 13 TDs and 15 INTs). Starting this game at QB will be freshman Stephen Garcia, who is only marginally better than Smelley but is likely more motivated. Garcia is from Tampa and is reportedly excited to get a chance to play in front of family and friends in his hometown of Tampa. He has a terrific WR in Kenny McKinley, who with 48 catches this year, now has 201 career receptions, which is a school record. Also, TE Jared Cook (All-SEC) was quoted as saying, "I can't wait man; this is a good chance to finally come out in our last game and prove ourselves to the world." What he's taling about is South Carolina's two-game collapse at the end of the regular season. South Carolina was 7-3 entering its game at Florida on Nov 15. All three losses had come by seven points, losing at Vandy, home to Georgia and at LSU (nothing to be ashamed of in those scores). However, the Gators 'pasted' the Gamecocks 56-6, gaining 519 yards. Then two weeks late, South Carolina lost 31-14 at hated-Clemson. South Carolina's defense entered the Florida game allowing just 15.6 PPG and 256.5 YPG but allowed 87 points (43.5 per) and 902 yards (451 per) in those final two games, while committing eight turnovers (four in each game). In fact, turnovers have been a major problem for South Carolina all season, committing 33 (only Hawaii, Wash St and Wyoming have more). Iowa has a tough 'D,' allowing 13.3 PPG (ranks 8th) and 288.9 YPG (ranks 13th) but it's my 'call' that Spurrier and Co. will be up to the challenge. Consider this. Spuurier returned to the college ranks at South Carolina for the 2005 season and took the Gamecocks to back-to-back bowl games, before LY's 6-6 season (lost final five games). Spurrier's first two bowl games with South Carolina ended in a 38-31 loss to Missouri in '05 and a 44-36 win over Houston in '06. That's two games which have averaged 74.5 PPG. This total is 'hovering' around 43 and I don't expect Iowa to be a 'silent spectator' in this one. After all, Iowa finished with FIVE wins in its final six games, including its 24-23 upset of Penn State on Nov 8. RB Shonn Greene topped 100 yards in all 12 games TY (1,729 yards / 6.2 YPC / 17 TDS) and I believe South Carolina's defense was 'exposed' in those final two games. Also, don't think that for a second that Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are not excited to be back in a bowl game, especially one on New Year's Day. Ferentz began at Iowa back in 1999, going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons. However, beginning in 2001, he had led the Hawkeyes to SIX consecutive bowl games (including the Orange Bowl in the 2002 season) before last year's 6-6 season. Will this game go 'over' as easily as West Va / NC? I can't promise that but I don't believe we'll have to 'sweat out' the 4th quarter!


9* Bowl Total on Iowa/South Carolina Over.


7* Massive Mismatch

Both Georgia and Michigan State come into this game 9-3 but it's fair to say that while the Spartans are thrilled to be in this New Year's Day bowl, the Bulldogs have to be somewhat disappointed. Many argued that Georgia was as good as any CFB team by the end of the 2007 and Georgia began the year No. 1 in both the AP and Coaches' polls. However, it's also pretty fair to say that things never 'clicked' this year for Georgia. The Bulldogs were 'hammered' in their two big showdown games at home to Alabama (lost 41-30 after trailing 31-0 at the half) and in Jacksonville 49-10 to Florida (trailed 35-3 at the end of the 3rd quarter). Then, in the season's final regular season game ("between the hedges"), Georgia took a 28-12 halftime lead, only to lose 45-42, while allowing 409 rushing yards for the game. I think it's safe to say that head coach Mark Richt, all of his players and surely the Georgia fans, had no intention of spending New Year's Day in Orlando. However, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Georgia's chances in this game. While I congratulate Michigan State for its 9-3 season, I believe the Spartans are VASTLY overrated. RB Javon Ringer ran for 1,590 yards (4.3 YPC and 21 TDs) but MSU's running game is NOT all that impressive, despite the presence of four, fifth-year seniors on the OL. The team averaged only 138.4 YPG (tied for 67th in the nation), averaging 3.5 YPC as a team. MSU played seven bowl teams this year and excluding its game with Sun Belt Conference representative Florida Atlantic, look at the rushing totals for the other six games. I'll list them separately, for effect. Cal 203 yards (MSU 81), Iowa 151 yards (MSU 91), Northwestern 176 yards (MSU 128), Ohio State 216 yards (MSU 52), Wisconsin 281 yards (MSU 25) and Penn State 138 yards (MSU 35). Doing the match and those six major bowl opponents ran for an average of 189.2 YPG on the ground against the Spartans, while MSU ran for an average of 68.7! As for MSU's passing game, QB Brian Hoyer lost WR Devin Thomas (79 catches / 8 TDs) who left early for the NFL, leaving Javon Ringer (35 catches LY) as the leading returning pass-catcher in '08. Hoyer completed just 50.8 percent of his throws this year, for a very modest 2,235 yards with just nine TDs. His leading receiver was Blair White, who caught 39 balls wit just one TD. In comparison, Georgia is loaded with future first-round NFL draft picks at the skill positions. Matthew Stafford (61.1 percent / 3,209 / 22 TDs and 9 INTs) is high on almost every scout's list of QBs, while no one even remotely questions RB Knowshon Moreno's (over 1,300 yards rushing for the 2nd straight year) NFL resume. In freshman AJ Green (55 catches / 17.3 YPC / 8 TDs) and senior Mohamed Massaquoi (57 catches / 16.0 YPC / 8 TDs), Stafford likely has two future NFLers as targets. The Georgia OL struggled at times this year and as mentioned at the top, Georgia's defense surely underachieved this year, especially in its biggest games. However, let's rewind MSU's season for just a second. The Spartans opened at Cal and lost 38-31. Then, at 6-1 and 3-0 in the Big 10 on Oct 18, MSU lost its "showdown game" at home to Ohio State, 45-7. In its final regular season game on Nov 22 at Penn State (when a win would have given the Spartans a share of the Big 10 title), MSU lost 49-14. Talk about not showing up in the big games? MSU's defense allowed an average of 44.0 PPG in its three losses, while the offense tallied just 25 points in the Big 10 losses to Ohio St and Penn St. By the way, the highly-touted Javon Ringer was held to 109 yards rushing (3.3 YPC) in his games vs Ohio St and Penn St. Is Georgia thrilled to be here? The answer is probably no but any way you 'slice' it, this game is "men vs boys."

MASSIVE MISMATCH on Georgia

[Mr. IWS]

wayne root

chairman-usc
millionaire-neb
nolimit-mich st
billion goy-cinnci

[Mr. IWS]

Big AL:

ten dimes-s. carolina
offshore steam-vt/cinnci o 42
computer boy-psu/usc u 45

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with SOUTH CAROLINA. Iowa is favored here because it has a slightly better record and looked more impressive at the end of the year. However, the Big 10 wasn't nearly as tough as the SEC this season and a closer look shows that the Hawkeyes lost several of their games against the better teams from the Big 10. They did beat Penn State and Wisconsin but lost vs. Michigan State, Northwestern and Illinois and they were fortunate to avoid Michigan and Ohio State. While the Hawkeyes did close the years on a roll, they're a dismal 2-8 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off back to back SU victories. South Carolina did close the season with back to back losses. They were both on the road though (at Florida and Clemson) and let's not forget that Spurriers' team had won six of its previous seven games. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. During the same stretch, they've also gone 4-2 ATS when coming off back to back SU losses and 12-7 ATS when matched up against a team with a winning record. The Gamecocks are on a mission to get rid of their reputation as a team which chokes down the stretch and to rid the bad taste leftover from the final two losses. As senior receiver Kenny McKinley said: "We lost our last two games. A win could salvage our season." Look for Spurrier's Gamecocks to be at their best, improving to 4-1-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs of four points or less. *New Year's Day Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

NEW YEARS DAY 2009 ...
40 Dime Georgia

10 Dime 3-team 10-Point Teaser - USC/South Carolina/Nebraska

5 Dime 6-point Teaser - Penn St-USC UNDER and Michigan St/Georgia OVER



FREE - Virginia Tech

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 36-9 ATS NEW YEAR's DAY BOWL WINNER!
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats
BIG AL's VIRTUALLY PERFECT 94% (15-1) NEW YEAR's BOWL WINNER!
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions plus the points over USC

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
Ultimate Underdog Nebraska
Daytime Dominator Georgia

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3 Star Selection
***Cincinnati (-2.0) 24 Virginia Tech 14 (at Orange Bowl )

Cincinnati's only two losses this year were at Oklahoma and at Connecticut when they were -6 in turnover margin with their 3rd string quarterback at the controls. The Bearcats beat 5 teams headed for a bowl game and they are clearly a better team than Virginia Tech. The Hokies somehow managed to go 9-4 and out-score their opponents by an average of 22.2 to 17.5 points despite being out-gained 4.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. I doubt that Frank Beamer's club will be able to overcome their offensive deficiencies in this game against a quality opponent. Virginia Tech was a modest 5-4 against other bowl teams (Cincinnati was 5-2 against bowl teams) and they simply don't stack up well against the Bearcats.

Virginia Tech's offense is a bit better with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, as his running ability (776 yards on 117 rushing plays) is the only positive thing about a Hokies offense with a bad offensive line (2.9 sacks allowed per game), bad running backs (3.9 ypr) and a bad pass attack (Taylor averaged just 4.8 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback). Virginia Tech was 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively this season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and they are 0.6 yppl worse than average when Taylor is in the game. I don't see that unit having much success against a consistently good Cincinnati defense that allowed 5.1 yppl in every game they played this season other than their visit against Oklahoma's top rated offense. Even with the Oklahoma game included the Bearcats allowed just 4.7 yppl in 12 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. Even the absence of starting cornerback Mike Mickens the final 3 games of the regular season (he's questionable for this game) did not keep the Bearcats from playing well defensively (they were actually slightly better without Mickens in those 3 games). The only comparable defense that Virginia Tech faced this season was in their two games against Boston College, in which the Hokies gained 240 yards at 3.7 yppl in week 8 and 251 yards at 3.6 yppl in the ACC Championship game (so don't be fooled by the 53 points they scored in those two games). I expect the Hokies to score between 10 and 17 points against Cincy's great defense.

Virginia Tech is even better defensively than their season numbers (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) suggest, as the Hokies improved dramatically coinciding with a change in the lineup starting week 6. From week 6 on the Hokies yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so they are 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. Cincinnati's offense was forced to use 3 different starting quarterbacks this season, as starter Dustin Grutza was injured in the team's second game and backup Tony Pike broke his non-throwing arm a few weeks later. Third string quarterback Chazz Anderson was horrible (5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback), but Pike returned to the starting role after the loss to U Conn and led the team on a 6 game win streak to end the season. Pike was 0.4 yppp better than average and is unbeaten as a starter this season, including 4 wins over bowl teams, but original starter Dustin Grutza posted better compensated numbers (8.3 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp) and may get the start here with Pike listed as questionable after being knocked out the Hawaii victory – a comeback victory that was engineered by Grutza. I'll assume Pike will start just to be conservative (since Grutza would probably be better) and Cincy rates at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively – which puts them at a 0.4 yppl disadvantage against the Virginia Tech defense. However, the Bearcats have a huge 1.5 yppl advantage over the Hokies' offense in this game.

Cincinnati's scoring margin (+5.0 points per game in 1A games) wasn't as impressive as their yardage stats because the Bearcats were unlucky to be -10 in fumbles lost margin in their 12 games against Division 1A teams, which is something that is not likely to continue to be a problem given that fumbles are 90% random in college football. In addition to being a better team from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats are one team that has an advantage over Virginia Tech in special teams. The Hokies' special teams reputation is actually better than their reality this season, as they were a bad punting team (33.0 net avg., compared to 34.0 net for their opponents) and they barely had an edge in average yard line after kickoffs (28.9 yard line to 28.7 ydl for their opponents). Cincinnati, meanwhile, had one of the best net punting average in the nation (41.5 yrds, 41.2 net in 1A games) while their opponents had a net punt of 35.4 yards. Cincy also has a great kick returner in Mardy Gilyard and their average starting yard line on kickoff was the 33.7 yard line while their opponents started at the 24.2 yard line on average after their kickoffs.

So, Cincinnati is a much better team from the line of scrimmage and better in special teams and my math model favors the Bearcats by 9 points in this game. Cincy also applies to a solid 50-19-1 ATS bowl situation and I'll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 points (up to -1.20 odds). I'll also lean with the under at 41 points or higher

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Nebraska and Clemson to finish UNDER the total. Many are expecting a shootout, as this is currently the highest total on the New Year's Day board, just slightly higher (or the same) as the Georgia/Michigan State game. Yes, Nebraska was involved in quite a few high-scoring games this season. However, the Tigers were at the opposite end of the spectrum. Indeed, Clemson held its last three opponents to an average of only eight points and 220 total yards of offense. For the season, the Tigers permitted an average of only 16.6 points (10th best) and 294.4 yards of offense. The Clemson offense was inconsistent much of the year though, particularly away from home, and the Tigers scored an average of only 16.8 points per game on the road. They managed an average of only 246.6 yards of offense in those games. Nebraska, which has seen four of its last five bowl games produce 50 combined points or less, has seen the UNDER go 4-1 its last five games against teams from the ACC and 2-0 its last two games on a neutral field. Clemson, which is a small favorite for this game, has seen the UNDER go 9-1 the last 10 times it was laying points and 12-3 the last 15 times it was a favorite of four points or less. These teams met in a bowl many years ago. That proved to be a defensive affair with the Tigers earning a 22-15 victory in the 1981 Orange Bowl. Look for history to repeat itself in terms of this year's game also proving lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the small number with CINCINNATI. The Hokies have been the stronger team in recent years and many will be surprised to see them listed as underdogs here. However, the Bearcats are favored for good reason. Cincinnati had an excellent season, finishing with an 11-2 record and the #12 ranking in the country. The Bearcats, who are thrilled to playing in their first BCS game, beat three ranked teams this season and coming in having won six straight games. While their spread offense is among the most prolific in the country, the Bearcats' defense is also excellent, recording at least one interception in all six of those games. Cincinnati's last loss was way back in October at Connecticut. Its only other loss all year was at Oklahoma. The Bearcats are 12-4-2 ATS their last 18 games against teams with a winning record and 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games with a line ranging from -3 to +3. The Bearcats are also 9-5 ATS their last 14 non-conference lined games, 15-3 SU overall in non-conference games during that time. Conversely, the Hokies come in at just 2-9 ATS in non-conference games the past few seasons. During that same stretch, they've also gone 0-3 SU/ATS when playing with two or more week's rest in between games. As usual, the Hokies do have an excellent defense. However, their offense has been somewhat inconsistent and they averaged nearly 100 yards less of offense per game than did the Bearcats. Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly had this to say: "It's an honor to be invited to the FedEx Orange Bowl. We've prepared for this moment since we arrived on campus two years ago. It's a big day for our program. That said, we're still going down to Miami prepared to win a football game." Look for Kelly's crew to do just that. *Best Bet