Atlanta +1 (-105)

Too much balance on offense for the Falcons. I hate the line movement on this game, as well as backing a rookie QB on the road for his firstplayoff game, but Matt Ryan has been nothing short of fantastic, despite his rookie status. Arizona is 30th in the NFL in Defensive Passer Rating, and has not been able to run the ball effectively this year, ranking 31st in the NFL gaining just 3.46 yards/rush. Michael Turner and the Falcons should be able to sustain drives and keep Warner off the field, with Turner keeping the Falcons in 3rd and managable situations for his young QB. Arizona ranks near the bottom in opponents 3rd down conversion rate (28th) allowing 1st downs 44.4% of the time. The Falcons counter on offense, ranking 6th in the NFL, converting 43.4% of the time. I lean to the Under but not playing the total.

PROP BET:

1st TD in game scored by Jerious Norwood -- pays 10-1