1/8/09

The Edge Vegas Experts = 1-6


Florida

Bruce Feldman = 20-11

Florida 38, Oklahoma 31: I think Florida's back seven will be as good as OU has seen all season and should be good enough to hold OU below 35 points for the first time this season. I expect Tim Tebow and the UF speed to hit on a few big plays and also to capitalize on a few mistakes from the Sooners' shaky kickoff coverage unit (105th in the nation).

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK = 16-16



BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Dolphin Stadium • Miami, FL
Florida over Oklahoma by 6
How many times have we seen it before? Oklahoma lays waste to its
regular season opposition like Grant setting fi re to Atlanta on his march
to the sea, then the Sooners reach the postseason and lay a big, fat egg.
Hey, it was already bad enough for OU that this game will be played in
the fan-friendly confi nes of the Gators’ home state but then Sooner QB
Sam Bradford had to go and steal the Heisman Trophy from Florida’s Tim
Tebow. “We’re going to be ready,” promised Tebow, who was denied a
chance to join Ohio State’s Archie Griffi n as a two-time Heisman winner.
“We’ll use it as motivation just like (the loss to) Ole Miss. Why get over it?
To tell you the truth, it’s more motivating for my teammates… they’ll be
excited.” Regardless of such intangibles, you’d be hard-pressed to fi nd a
college team in America playing better football right now than either the
Gators or the Sooners (UF’s 10-1-1 ATS and OU’s 10-2 ATS marks were the
best in the land this year). Led by the prolifi c Bradford, Oklahoma scored
60 or more points in its last 5 games, an NCAA record, and became the fi rst
team ever to score over 700 points. Meanwhile, Urban Meyer is looking to
claim his second BCS championship in three years for Gator Nation, carrying
a record blemished only by a 1-point loss to Mississippi. However, even if this
one wasn’t for all the marbles, Florida’s ATS edges over OU in this matchup
are vastly superior. Ready? Meyer stands 30-3 SU and 24-4-1 ATS in his career
versus non-conference competition and SEC teams are also 9-1 SU and 8-2
ATS in their last 10 BCS Bowl appearances. By comparison, Oklahoma’s Bob
Stoops owns a lowly 7-27 ATS record when his team allows 27 or more points
(Florida averaged 45 PPG against fellow Bowlers in ’08) and BCS Bowl teams
like the Sooners that allow at least 22.4 PPG are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS of late.
Oklahoma is also 2-4 SU and ATS in BCS Bowl games under Stoops (0-4 SU
and ATS L4) and BCS Bowlers that scored 35 or more in their previous game
(Oklahoma) are just 11-25 SU and ATS. Last but not least, Heisman Trophy
winning teams have failed to cash in on the hoopla, going just 7-19 ATS as
Bowlers since 1980. Whew! Though Florida’s high-octane offense dominates
the headlines, the Gator ‘D’ picked off a whopping 24 interceptions and held
3 of their fi nal 4 foes to season low – or 2nd low – yards. And lest we forget,
UF WR extraordinaire Percy Harvin, who missed the SEC Championship game
against Alabama, has declared himself 100% ready for this showdown with
the Sooners. In a battle between two head coaches with Ohio roots, Florida’s
80 YPG defensive edge and a huge disparity in fan support will be too much
for the Sooners to overcome. Gators chomp their way to the crystal trophy
at Dolphin Stadium tonight

THE GOLD SHEET = 13-21

BCS TITLE GAME
OKLAHOMA (12-1) vs. FLORIDA (12-1)
Thursday, January 8 Night at Miami, FL (Grass Field)
*Florida 37 - Oklahoma 27—While the fatally-flawed BCS continues to court
controversy, it would be hard to argue that the convoluted system didn’t
produce a title game matchup this year that just about every college football fan
outside of Austin, Texas (and Salt Lake City?) can’t wait to see. And even a lot
of Longhorn & Ute fans are probably secretly looking forward to this clash of
one-loss juggernauts, a pair of torrid teams that have combined to cover 21 of
their 24 lined games this season. Oklahoma followed its setback to Red River
rival UT in early October with a stupefying display of offensive puissance down
the stretch, cracking the 60-point barrier in each of its last five games! And
2006 national champ Florida has been similarly dominant since its surprising
late-September home loss to Ole Miss, dragooning its next nine foes by an eyepopping
aggregate score of 445-117!
Would it be a shock if the underdog Sooners are able to ride their seeminglyunstoppable
offense (562 ypg) to a small upset? Hardly. Rarely have we seen
a college field general with more impressive control over an attack than OU’s
Heisman-winning QB Sam Bradford (48 TDP vs. only 6 ints.), who has the
receiving weapons & pass protection to torch the stoutest of stop units. Would
it be a big surprise if this game turns into an offensive shootout, with Bradford
and indomitable Gator QB Tim Tebow, the 2007 Heisman winner, trading points
in a last-team-with-the-ball-wins sort of scenario? Definitely not.
However, we believe that this game is likely to take a slightly different track.
It’s clear that the superior defense belongs to Florida, which has allowed more
than 21 points just once all season. Taking nothing away from the recordsetting
accomplishments of the Sooner offense, but OU is yet to run up against
any stop unit that has the overall talent and speed possessed by the Gators’
pugnacious platoon. Sure, even UF figures to have a tough time preventing the
balanced Sooner attack from moving the chains in the spacious middle of the
field. But converting yards into points might not come so easy for OU against
a Gator defense that has the quickness & depth up front to get some pressure
on Bradford and enough athleticism in the back 7 to blanket the Sooner
receivers in the tighter confines of the red zone. No, it’s actually Florida’s
offense—thanks to the relentless Tebow’s FB-like running near the goal line
and speedy WR/RB Percy Harvin’s nose for the end zone (he’s scored at least
one TD in each of his last 14 games and will be ready for action after sitting out
the SEC title game with a sprained ankle)—that will likely be most efficient at
cashing in drives for scores, giving the favored Gators a good shot at covering
the oddsmaker’s fair (although not insubstantial) impost.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

Winning Points = 15-17


FLORIDA over OKLAHOMA by 7
Championship games should bring the proper resumes to the table, and this one
certainly does. What Oklahoma has done offensively this season has been nothing
short of remarkable – the Sooners have scored at least 35 points in every game,
have topped 50 in nine of 13, and are on a run of five straight games in which they
have scored more than 60. Meanwhile Florida is playing for the BCS trophy for
the second time in three years, and in Tim Tebow has a leader that has a chance to
make a special place for himself in the annals of college football. But while the
offensive numbers for both teams are amazing, and the Tebow vs. Sam Bradford
QB battle brings heavyweight elements, we believe that there might be a significant
difference between these two on the defensive side of the ball, and that is
where we see this game being won. Florida may have as much speed coming out
of the defensive huddle as any team west of Southern Cal, with only Mississippi
able to score more than 21 points against the Gators this season (and note that the
Rebels only had 10 first downs and 325 yards in that game, taking advantage of
three recovered fumbles to help set up easy points). No team at this level is going
to shut down Bradford and the Sooners, but Florida has the talent to make the
occasional stop, and perhaps create some turnovers (in seven of 13 games they had
at least three takeaways). It is a different story when the Gators have the ball. While
big plays make the highlight reels, it is the ability of Tebow to run this offense
without miscues that makes them so difficult to defend, and in 10 of 13 games
they had one turnover or none. There is plenty of operating room against an
Oklahoma defense that has not held a team to less than 21 points since a win at
Baylor back on the first Saturday in October, with the Sooners neither dominating
against the run or the pass. Florida can spread that defense with playmakers at
every skill position, and then the reads of Tebow, and his precision with the ball,
take care of the rest. We will call for the Gators to be much more efficient on
offense throughout the course of the game, which means control of the flow, and
grasp of the trophy. FLORIDA 38-31.

THE SPORTS REPORTER = 19-14




BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Orange Bowl – Miami, FL
OKLAHOMA over FLORIDA by 3
If there was an offensive line that had success against the Gators, it was Alabama. It was
only low Tide when they were forced to pass. If any team’s o-line can match Bama’s size,
strength, and athleticism, it’s Oklahoma’s. Good news for the Sooner Nation is that their team
can run and throw it. How else do you explain 4.8 yards per carry and an insane 10.1 yards
per pass attempt? The Gator d-line is productive, but young. They’ll need to help the other 7
defenders to do what they’ve done all year – generate turnovers. Florida is +21 on the year,
but stealing pigskin against a Heisman winning QB ain’t easy. Offensively, the Gators averaged
7.2 yards per play and are about as balanced as can be with the pass and run, churning
out 3,000 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing on the year. Oklahoma may give up only
106 per game on the ground, but in games against Baylor, Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma
State, they gave up an average of 183 yards rushing. And, oh yeah – Florida has a kid named
Tebow that won’t let his team lose. Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator and play-caller Dan
Mullen will call plays even though he’s been splitting his time between this gig and his new
head gig in Starkville, MS. Mark Richt tried the same thing back in 2000, and Stoops’
Sooners upset Richt and his Florida State offense. Will history repeat itself this time around?
OKLAHOMA, 34-31.

Logical Approach = 31-29 ( 15-15 SIDES AND 15-15 TOTALS )




There is much to recommend BOTH teams in this game as their identical S/U and ATS records are a combined outstanding 24-2 and 20-4! Each has exceeded the lofty expectations set for them and both were playing their best and most dominant football as the regular season ended. Oklahoma scored at least 60 points in each of their last 5 games (and scored 58 in the game before the streak started). Florida held 12 of their 13 opponents to 21 points or less. Florida's better defensive stats may be due to the SEC having so many weak offenses this season - 6 of the 12 SEC teams ranked in the bottom 23 in total offense! Oklahoma faced many high powered offenses, thus making their defense appear weaker than it really was. 6 of the 12 Big 12 teams ranked in the top 12 nationally in total offense and another 4 teams ranked in the top 50. Both teams faced decent non-conference opposition as Florida defeated in-state rivals Miami and Florida State while Oklahoma defeated BCS Bowl bound Cincinnati and a very strong TCU. Both teams bring lengthy S/U and ATS winning streaks into this game. Both teams have rather spotty Bowl records in recent seasons although each has won a BCS Title within the past decade. Both teams have lost 4 of their last 6 Bowls. Since 2000 Oklahoma is 102-18 straight up; Florida 86-29. Both teams have Heisman Trophy winning QBs with Florida's Tim Tebow winning last season and OU's Sam Bradford this season. Both offenses rarely turn the ball over (Florida lost 11 turnovers, Oklahoma 9) while both defenses excelled at creating them (UF forced 33, OU 32). Both defenses excelled against the run (ranking # 16 and 18) and while Florida had the better pass defense statistically (#19 vs # 100) that was, as stated earlier, because they faced some incredibly weak offenses, especially passing offenses. Florida's biggest edge is in special teams which clearly could play a factor in what shapes up as a high scoring, fast paced game of big plays. Both teams have outstanding credentials and are well coached. In a game of this magnitude the underdog always has a chance to pull the upset as BOTH teams know how to win and have done so all season. Florida does have the advantage of playing in state and that is factored somewhat into their being favored. But in the end the key is that the Oklahoma defense is perceived as being weak and the Florida defense is perceived as being strong. But for the reasons mentioned above those perceptions may be erroneous or at least may have created more influence than is justified. The call is for Oklahoma to win 31-28, making

OKLAHOMA a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

Spylock
Oklahoma

NCAAF


Thursday, January 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BCS Championship: #2 Florida vs. #1 Oklahoma [FOX | 8 PM ET]

Florida (-5, O/U 69.5): The Gators enter this game off a huge win over former #1 Alabama in the SEC championship with QB Tim Tebow turning in a Heisman-worthy performance. Tebow ended up third in Heisman Trophy balloting behind Oklahoma's Sam Bradford after becoming the first sophomore ever to win the award a year ago, and Oklahoma CB Dominique Franks said he would be the fourth-best QB if he played in the Big 12. "I like it - it's fun," Tebow said. "It makes it more competitive, and I'll enjoy it. You can say whatever you want. That's fine. We still get to go play. That's what I like I do." Tebow hopes to get the last laugh by winning his second national championship in three years.

Florida is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The OVER is 6-1 in Florida's last 7 lined games.

Key Injuries - WR/RB Percy Harvin (ankle) is probable.
WR Louis Murphy (knee) is probable.
RB Chris Rainey (groin) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 41 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Oklahoma: The Sooners own the nation's top offense, averaging nearly 60 points during a seven-game winning streak to end the regular season. Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford directed the record-breaking offense, which has scored 60 points or more in the last four games, becoming the first school to accomplish that feat since Tulsa did it five straight times back in 1919. The only real criticism for Oklahoma is that the team's defense surrendered 24.5 points per game in the high-scoring Big 12. The Sooners will also be missing leading rusher DeMarco Murray, putting even more pressure on Bradford, who will try to become just the third Heisman winner in 12 attempts to leave a game pitting #1 vs. #2 with a victory.

Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall.
The OVER is 12-1 in Oklahoma's last 13 games overall.

Key Injuries - QB Sam Bradford (thumb) is probable.
RB DeMarco Murray (knee) is OUT.
DT DeMarcus Granger (back) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 35

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA (12 - 1) vs. OKLAHOMA (12 - 1) - 1/8/2009, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
FLORIDA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
FLORIDA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


BCS Championship Game
Miami, FL
TV: FOX
Florida vs. Oklahoma, 8:15 ET

Florida:
7-0 ATS vs. teams with winning record
10-2 ATS in all games

Oklahoma:
11-1 Over this season
15-4 Over after scoring 31+ points 5 straight games

8:15 PM FLORIDA vs. OKLAHOMA
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

RON RAYMOND'S FLORIDA VS. OKLAHOMA BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GOY


under 69.5

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Duke (-14-1/2) Wednesday night.

Today it's Florida and the over.

Free Pick From ***** Sports. #10 Take Florida -125 over Carolina (Thursday 7:35 pm NHL Center Ice)

The Panthers played surprising well in their last road game of a long trip and we expect that success to carryover into Thursday when they are back in Sunrise playing a familiar foe. The Panthers still have visions of a playoff birth and this is an important game for them since the trail the Hurricanes in the standing by five points. Their offense has finally come to life and has averaged scoring five goals in their last three games and we expect another high scoring affair on Thursday with the home team coming out on top. Doc’s Sports

WinningAngle.com your one source for sports information on the web.

Your Thursday Night Football Selection is:

Play on Oklahoma (+5) over Florida*
8:15 P.M. EST Kick-Off (Top NCAA Guarantee)

Oklahoma has won 13 of the last 14 games when the total posted is greater than 63 points and they have also won 7 consecutive games coming off four or more consecutive OVER the totals. Oklahoma has scored at least 60 points in five consecutive games and they are averaging over 54 points a game on offense this season.

Play on Oklahoma plus the points on Thursday

15000 unit frank patron on Oklahoma sooners +5

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

CFB Oklahoma vs Florida 8:00 20* Oklahoma +5.5
CFB Oklahoma vs Florida 8:00 10* OVER 69.5

[Mr. IWS]

Thank you for ordering from WinningAngle.com your one source for sports information on the web.

Your Thursday Night Football Selection is:

Play on Oklahoma (+5) over Florida*
8:15 P.M. EST Kick-Off (Top NCAA Guarantee)

Oklahoma has won 13 of the last 14 games when the total posted is greater than 63 points and they have also won 7 consecutive games coming off four or more consecutive OVER the totals. Oklahoma has scored at least 60 points in five consecutive games and they are averaging over 54 points a game on offense this season.

Play on Oklahoma plus the points on Thursday

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Malinsky

4* Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Budins 25 Dime

Florida

[Mr. IWS]

GREG SHAKER


This play was released about a month ago but all still holds true despite the line movement. The writeup is very brief and to the point.

Play up to -6.5

NCAAF: Florida Gators at Oklahoma Sooners - Florida -3 -110
Game Date: 1/8/2009

Note: I was going to prepare a large writeup on this final College Football game of the year but there really is no reason to. We have learned that the Big 12 is not as good as expected. Texas struggled to beat Ohio State with a non-cover. Texas Tech was thrashed by Ole Miss. Mizzu and Oklahoma State both looked like mediocre teams as well. The fact is, the QB's of the Big 12 looked like average SEC Signal Callers. They are good, but their numbers are way overstated. One has to wonder what kind of numbers Stafford, Tebow, Wilson, and Snead would have had in that conference. The Gators are the Cream of the Crop in the SEC and that cream is a lot creamier than the Cream of the Crop in the Big 12. This team has 6 or 7 players that run a 4.3 forty. Most squads are lucky to have one that can do that. Harvin is 90% or better for this contest and that is a feather in our hat. But probably not needed. They certainly did not need him in the SEC Championship game. Sooner QB Bradford is going to get pressure all game, and he is going to throw up some wounded ducks. Both teams have been good not dealing out turnovers but Florida has accomplished their feat while playing in the defensive minded SEC. I do expect Oklahoma to make some big plays Thursday. They will score some points. They will not be able to sustain long drives. The Gators will have much success. Too much speed and too much talent. I did not go back and look at how many points the Big 12 Top Teams averaged in the regular season, and how much they have averaged in the Bowl Matchups. I do know that they have played what I consider average D's and they have not faired to well. Certainly Texas did play a good one and we saw them win a game, but manage well below their totals for the year. While I have been accused many times of being an SEC Homer Guy, I can assure you that this is not a Homer Play. You should have gotten this one SOONER than later, but it is not too late...

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence's Pick Pack

Matchup: Florida at Oklahoma
Play: Florida -3

How many times have we seen it before? Oklahoma lays waste to its regular season opposition like Grant setting fire to Atlanta on his march to the sea, then the Sooners reach the postseason and lay a big, fat egg. Hey, it was already bad enough for OU that this game will be played in the fan-friendly confines of the Gators’ home state but then Sooner QB Sam Bradford had to go and steal the Heisman Trophy from Florida ’s Tim Tebow. “We’re going to be ready,” promised Tebow, who was denied a chance to join Ohio State ’s Archie Griffin as a two-time Heisman winner. “We’ll use it as motivation just like (the loss to) Ole Miss. Why get over it? To tell you the truth, it’s more motivating for my teammates… they’ll be excited.” Regardless of such intangibles, you’d be hard-pressed to find a college team in America playing better football right now than either the Gators or the Sooners (UF’s 10-1-1 ATS and OU’s 10-2 ATS marks were the best in the land this year). Led by the prolific Bradford , Oklahoma scored 60 or more points in its last 5 games, an NCAA record, and became the first team ever to score over 700 points. Meanwhile, Urban Meyer is looking to claim his second BCS championship in three years for Gator Nation, carrying a record blemished only by a 1-point loss to Mississippi . However, even if this one wasn’t for all the marbles, Florida ’s ATS edges over OU in this matchup are vastly superior. Ready? Meyer stands 30-3 SU and 24-4-1 ATS in his career versus non-conference competition and SEC teams are also 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 BCS Bowl appearances. By comparison, Oklahoma ’s Bob Stoops owns a lowly 7-27 ATS record when his team allows 27 or more points ( Florida averaged 45 PPG against fellow Bowlers in ’08) and BCS Bowl teams like the Sooners that allow at least 22.4 PPG are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS of late. Oklahoma is also 2-4 SU and ATS in BCS Bowl games under Stoops (0-4 SU and ATS L4) and BCS Bowlers that scored 35 or more in their previous game ( Oklahoma ) are just 11-25 SU and ATS. Last but not least, Heisman Trophy winning teams have failed to cash in on the hoopla, going just 7-19 ATS as Bowlers since 1980, including 0-5 SU and ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 2 points versus a .700 or greater opponent. Though Florida’s high-octane offense dominates the headlines, the Gator ‘D’ picked off a whopping 24 interceptions and held 3 of their final 4 foes to season low – or 2nd low – yards. And lest we forget, UF WR extraordinaire Percy Harvin, who missed the SEC Championship game against Alabama , has declared himself 100% ready for this showdown with the Sooners. In a battle between two head coaches with Ohio roots, Florida ’s 80 YPG defensive edge and a huge disparity in fan support will be too much for the Sooners to overcome. Lay the points with the Gators.