1-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
Baltimore 1 unit



colin cowherd:

ravens
panthers
eagles
steelers



DOC sports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4 Unit Play. #5 Take Baltimore Ravens +3 over Tennessee Titans





KELSO

2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Saturday, January 10, 2009
NFL Playoff Game Of The Year
100 Units
Titans (-3) over Ravens
4:30 PM -- AFC Divisional Playoffs - LP Field
Tennessee by 7-10
TV: CBS Comments: The first thing one must consider in this American Football Conference showdown is the weather, and it could be downright dreadful. The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with a game-time temperature of 45 degrees and with winds out of the west-southwest at 13 miles per hour. That might put the damper on a team that figured to be a low-scoring battle between two ball control teams. Baltimore comes into this game 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS while Tennessee is 13-5 and 12-4 in those categories, with the figures meaning both have played above expectations all season. However, there are three edges Tennessee, which beat Baltimore 13-10 in Baltimore in the fourth game of the season, has that I believe will make the difference. 1. While both teams have excellent running games, the efficiency of the quarterback is going to be a major factor—and Tennessee has a big edge with the grizzled and seasoned old pro in Kerry Collins. He is no world-beater but he does not make the mistakes that get teams beaten. As much respect as I have for Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, he will be facing a one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL and it has not been lost on me that he completed 9-of-23 passes for just 135 yards in last week’s playoff win over Miami. The Titans are no Miami, to say the least. 2. Tennessee had last week off to get ready for this while the Ravens had to play in the wild-card round at Miami. A rested team this deep into the season always has some edge. 3. Tennessee is at home. Both these teams play great defense, with Tennessee giving up just 14.9 points and 293.6 yards per game and Baltimore surrendering just 14.6 points 261.9 yards per outing. The quality of defensive play almost insures a close game and I believe the Titans have a far better chance of taking Flacco out of the game than the Ravens have of rattling Collins.
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.




Al DeMarco

10 Dime Tenn

He suggest buying to -2 1/2.





ATS Financial pick is up:

3 Unites UNDER 34 Tennessee/Baltimore






Steve Budin

25 dime teaser - Carolina/Steelers 6 pt teaser





January 10 2009
Frank Patron First Ever 50000 Unit Lock

Frank Patron
First Ever 50000 Unit Lock
Baltimore Ravens +3





ASA

3* Arizona
3* Under 40 Eagles




ATS Lock Club
3 Ravens +3
8 Michigan St -7
8 N . Iowa -6
7 Arkansas -6
6 BC -2
2 Unit round robin parlay the above 4
5 Marquette -2.5

ATS Financial Package
4 San Diego St -3.5
4 Washington -4.5
4 Rutgers +7





Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Ravens/Titans Under 34
Both teams played in a low scoring game earlier this year and I expect exactly the same type of game today. The Titans have the edge on paper, but Center Kevin Mawae is out and that is going to affect the timing of the offense which will have the Ravens Defense licking their chops. Tennessee has an experience defensive line going against a Ravens O-Line that is very young. The weather will be cold and windy and this should be a classic defensive game. Take the Under.

Panthers -9.5 over Cardinals
In the earlier game this season the Panthers turned the ball over a bit and gave Arizona prime positioning to score. There is one thing that Kurt Warner isn't good at and that is playing in the cold weather. Also, in the last two cold weather games Arizona's Defense has gotten hammered for about 48 pt's in both. The Panthers are 8-0 at home and are a better team in every phase of the game. AZ will be without Boldin and if he does play he will not be a factor at all. The Panthers can key in on Fitzgerald and its going to be a long night. Look for the Panthers to dominate. Take Carolina.






Truschel 20 Tenn





John Ryan

Arizona at Carolina
Play = Over

Simulator shows a 74% probability that 50 or more points will be scored in this game. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that Arizona will gain between 350 and 400 yards, allow 6 or more yards per play, and allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt. Note that Arizona is 6-1 OVER this season and 13-4 OVER the past 3 seasons when they allow 6 or more total yards per play. They are 4-0 OVER this season, 10-0 OVER the past 3 seasons and 30-13 OVER since 1992 when they gain between 350 and 400 total yards. They are also 5-1 OVER this season and 10-3 OVER when they allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt. Arizona is also in a series of strong over roles for this game. Note that they are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game this season. Arizona is also in a solid power type of trend noting they are 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Cardinals certain have their hands full having not only to play a rested Carolina team, but also having to travel to the Eastern time zone where they are just 2-19 and an imperfect 0-5 this season. Carolina’s OL and DL needed the BYE week and for the first time since week 10 – after their BYE – the Panthers will be playing close to 100% full strength. The Cardinals have offensive weapons that will make it difficult for Carolina to consistently contain throughout this game. Yet, the key to this over play is that Carolina knows they can score at will against this Arizona defense if they simply execute. They have NO other choice, but to assign CB Gamble to cover Fitzgerald, especially if Boldin is still not completely healthy. Warner knows how to read this at the LOS and even if Carolina shows zone matchup or Tampa-2, or even base cover-2, he can expect that to transition into man on Fitzgerald. Look for Warner to hook up with Fitzgerald on double move routes when he is on the strong side and has plenty of field to operate within. I also like a 3* amount on the first half line OVER as well. I would not surprised to see this game 24-17 Carolina at the half.






Spec K
Spec K 20 Villanova




Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers - Saturday January 10, 2009 8:15 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Carolina Panthers -9.5 (-110)



While we are not wild about laying this many points in NFL, we still believe that Carolina is the best way to go in this game out of the four options (Carolina, AZ, over or under), as the "numbers don't lie," and Carolina has a clear edge in just about all of them except the one that is keeping this line from "crashing" the double digit barrier, that being the fact that when these two played in mid season in Carolina, the Cards played Panthers tough, losing by only 4 points and "pushing" ATS vs the consensus line for that game, in which they led 17-3 in third quarter before a series of costly mistakes did them in -- what else is new for Cards on the road TY, especially when playing decent teams in the eastern time zone? And that brings us to the first edge that Carolina has in this game, which is Arizona's miserable 0-4-1 ATS record (with average MOL/margin of loss 20 points) when playing road games TY in the eastern time zone. And it just so happens that the only meaningful road games played by cards TY (the four that they played vs teams with .500> W-L records, excluding rout loss at NE after Cards had already clinched NFC-West) were all played in the east. In those four representative games (at Wash, Jets, Caro and philly), AZ was a horrible 0-3-1 ATS, with an average MOL of 15 points. And conversely, Carolina was 4-0-1 ATS in their five representative home games, played vs teams with .500> W-L records (AZ, Denver, TB, NO and Atlanta), with an average MOV of 15.5 points in those five games. So combining and averaging these #s and records, we have a 7-0-1 edge for Carolina (counting earlier game between these two just once), with a projected 15 pont SU and ATS Carolina win. And while it's understandable to be reluctant to lay the big points (>7) against a decent team like Arizona, it should be noted that in playoff point spread records compiled for the divisional round over last 32 years (since 1976), the highest % of wins in any point spread category is for home faves of 7-9.5 points, with a 24-18 (57%) ATS record.We believe that one of the reasons for that good record is that in the playoffs, where there is no tomorrow unless you win, the faves rarely take their foot "off the gas pedal" when they have a late lead, like they often do in the regular season for various reasons. And this results in very few "back door covers" by heavy dogs in the playoffs.

Looking at the stats for this game, while we note that Arizona QB Curt warner played a very solid game in the earlier season match-up between these two, passing for 381 yards with two TDs and just one "pick," we have been really impressed with the development of Carolina's running game, particularly RB De Angelo williams, with 18 TDs TY and an average of 5.5 YPC. resulting in Carolina having one of the top running games in NFL at 145 YRPG on 4.8 YPC. While both teams' run defenses have basically similar #s, allowing about 110 YRPG on 4 YPC, the Arizona rush offense is just so-so, averagging only 73 YRPG on 3.4 YPC. In that mid-season match-up, Carolina outrushed Cards 120-50, and with panther rushing attack much more developed since then and with RB Williams still healthy, we project a 100+ yard rushing edge tonite for Carolina. Nor does it hurt that Carolina also has a significant ST (special teams) edge, being ranked #17 in STs as opposed to Arizona's crappy #31 ranking. The final edge for Carolina that we will mention is with the defensive comparison, especially when looking at the key stat of YPT (yards per point), where Carolina "D" has a very good YPT of 17, compared to Arizona's bad defensive YPT of 12.5. For those of you unfamiliar with the term YPT, Carolina's good YPT of 17 means that opposing teams need to gain 17 yards for every point scored against Carolina defense, while Arizona's bad YPT of 12.5 means that opposing teams need to gain ony 12.5 yards for every point scored against the leaky Arizona defense.

So based on the foregoing, we suggest a small (two unit) play on Carolina at -9.5 (but pass at -10>). We also like Carolina as "teaser bait" for one> 7 point teasers, teasing line down to -2.5 for Carolina and teasing Panthers to one or more of our other NFL picks for this WE, as well as teasing Carolina to the over in this game (with totals line teased down to 42.5 points or less). Once individual team totals lines are released for today's NFL games, we will update this pick write up for our subscribers, with at least one likely individual team totals play as well, along with some very solid second half betting strategy and guidelines for this late game.






North coast
4'* Over Ariz
2* Under Tenn
1* Tenn
1* Car





ATS Financial NHL

3* CAROLINA +190
4* BUFFALO OVER 5 1/2





TEDDY JUNE

NFL
Tennessee Titans

CBB
West Virginia Mountaineers
Miami FL Hurricanes





Matt Far go

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Play Kentucky -8

Kentucky enters this game off a tough loss at Louisville in a game it could have easily won. The Wildcats came back late with a ferocious rally as they tied the game by going on a 7-0 run in fewer than 50 seconds but the Cardinals hit a three-pointer with 2.5 second left to pull off the win. Kentucky had come in on a five-game winning streak and it is starting to look more and more like the team to beat in the weak SEC. After an embarrassing loss to VMI and a blowout against North Carolina, the Wildcats are 11-2 their last 13 games.

Vanderbilt is hot with a winning streak of six games entering SEC action. The Commodores are coming off a 30-point win against Massachusetts, on the road no less. It was the first true road win of the season after getting beaten badly at Georgia Tech in their first. This makes just the third true road game of the season and Vanderbilt has never been a strong road team, especially within the conference. Things are not going to be very easy on Saturday.

Last season, Kentucky made a trip to Nashville and was hammered by the Commodores 93-52. It was its biggest loss ever in SEC action and its worst loss since losing to Kansas by 55 points way back in December of 1989. The Wildcats finished with more fouls (26) than made shots (17) and their 11 first half points were the fewest since scoring 11 in a game against Cincinnati in 1983. I am guessing that Kentucky has not forgotten that game and it will be out for some major payback.

Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series at home and the SEC has seemed to perk it up as it is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 SEC games. The Commodores as mentioned do not travel well and they are just 6-13 ATS as a road underdog of more than seven points and fewer than 13 points. Vanderbilt is also only 6-17 ATS under head coach Kevin Stallings after 15 or more games when playing a team that shoots more than 48 percent from the floor. Look for Kentucky to get its payback on Saturday. 3* Kentucky Wildcats


Harvard at Dartmouth
Prediction: Dartmouth

Reason: Harvard is coming off one of the biggest wins in school history as it upset Boston College on Wednesday. I put out Harvard as a 3* play but I certainly didn?t think it would win outright but considering that the Eagles were coming off a road win at top ranked North Carolina, it may not have been such a big surprise after all. Now Harvard must try and regroup quickly to open Ivy League action on the road. This line is no doubt inflated due to that win over Boston College.

Dartmouth is no prize but it could not be in a better spot here. This is more of a play against the Crimson than anything plus the fact that this rivalry has been home court dominated over the years. The Big Green have dropped five straight games so they do not come in with much momentum but they do come in hungry. In their last loss to Army, the Big Green opened up an 11-point lead in the second half, only to get outscored 21-4 over the final seven and a half minutes.

Dartmouth has been in a big shooting slump over the last five games, as it has hit just 34 percent from the floor and 27.5 percent from three-point range. Any good news from that is the fact that three of those games were on the road and it now faces a defense that is anything but good. Harvard allowed Boston College to shoot 43.9 percent from the floor including a mere 15.4 percent from long range. It was one of those nights where the shots simply were not falling.

Was the Crimson win over the Eagles a fluke? Of course it was. We get tremendous line value because if it as well as a great situation. Harvard is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Ivy League road games and is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Dartmouth is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games and the host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in this series. Look for Dartmouth to give the Crimson all it can handle, something Boston College could not do. 3* Dartmouth Big Green






Stu Feiner

10000 Dime High Roller Club
Pro Football Divisional Playoff GOY
2-0 with these ULTRA rare plays this year!

Carolina


2500 Dime High Roller Club Mismatch

Tennessee




NorthCoast

4'* Over Ariz (4.5)



ras


#570 Georgia State -2
#604 Wilmington +6
#646 New Mexico State -.5
#690 Montana State -3

All 1 unit plays





ATS Sports Club
NCAA Hoops Blowout Winner:

Michigan State -4




ATS Sports Club
$25 NBA Side Winner:

Utah Jazz -8




alatex
neb



lenny stevens
20 byu
10 nd



Stan Sharp | NFL Total Triple-Dime Bet
304 CAR / 303 ARI Over 49.0 BetUS
Analysis: Stan is Betting ARIZONA/CAROLINA OVER today. Neither team plays defense and both teams have very potent offenses. Stan has these two marching up & down the field with the winner hitting the in the 30's. Stan expects 58-62 points in this game. TAKE ARIZONA/CAROLINA OVER as STAN'S NFL TOTAL GAME OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY




Fargo’s **9** CBB 81.1% TOP Revenge Play *BLOWOUT*
Pick # 1 UL Lafayette (2.0)

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers football

20 star nyg under
15 balt

[Mr. IWS]

Bob akmen

10 star tenn
10 star on over tenn

[Mr. IWS]

heisman
carolina-arizona over....regular play

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky
5* Marquette -1
4* G'town -11
4* Oklahoma -1
4* Oklahoma Under 146.5
4* Richmond 1
4* St Bony 1
6* Florida -13.5

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law

Verdict: Arizona 24, Carolina 38
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON CARDINALS/PANTHERS OVER 48.5
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

sebass
20 nc st
30 balt
20 under balt
300 carolina
50 richmond
50 auburn
50 virgina
20 s fla
30 k state

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Sports Club
Saturday, January 10, 2009
$25 Soccer Back of the Net Winner:

Spain La Liga:
Villarreal vs. Valencia over 2.5
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy 6 Unit Play (28-6 Lifetime)

Carolina Panthers -10

[Mr. IWS]

NSA 20* Ravens +3

[Mr. IWS]

(NSA)
20* NFL Baltimore +3
10* NFL Carolina -9.5
10* CBB Boston College -2
10* CBB Stanford +3
10* CBB Villanova -2
10* NBA Charlotte +3

[Mr. IWS]

IC 5* Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

5 Unit Play. January College Basketball GOM. #558. Take Illinois -18.5 over Indiana (Saturday @ 3pm est). I'm not the one to lay points in a ballgame considering I'm a regular dog player. After all, our last GOM for College Basketball was Cleveland State +13 over Syracuse as Cleveland State won Outright at 'Cuse. Well, today, we are taking the heavy favorite. Sometimes you have several factors that come together all at once and such is the case here. After all, not only is Illinois coming home after a tough loss to Michigan on the road, but they lost to Indiana in overtime in their very gym last year as well as losing to Indiana on the road. This is one of the biggest rivalries in college basketball as these two teams hate each other. Indiana is a team of walk-ons and non-scholarship players that are coming together and playing better. But, that changes today when they face an Illinois team that is not only coming off a conference loss at Michigan, but they return home to play a team that swept them last year and these returning letterman know what it felt like when Eric Gordon and company defeated them in their own gymnasium in overtime. I have Illinois winning this game by 20 or more here. Remember, with the young man Legion who transferred from Kentucky, this Illinois team is deeper and stronger. After all, with his entrance, the Illini went on a 7-0 ATS run before that run being snapped by Michigan. The last time the Illini had such a big spread was against Detroit when they won by 31, against Chicago State when they won by 39 or against UGA when they won by 34. Why can't Illinois win by that same margin against a similarly ranked Indiana team, in an arch rivalry, coming home after a tough conference loss and having double-revenge from last year. This should be a burial from the get-go as there is a reason why this spread is so high as we are backing the team that went on the road to defeat Purdue in overtime, the same team that has won by margins of 30 or more against similarly ranked teams and will be fired up to win this Midwest rivalry. The Illini have won their last 6 Saturday games, the alumni and boosters will be there n full circle for this burial. The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and Illinois is 9-4 ATS following a straight up loss.





4Unit Play. #504. Take Minnesota -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks (Saturday @ 8pm est). Note, I was very close to either ride OKC first half or OKC for the game, but decided to go with the Timberwolves at home to get it done for us with our POD selection. We have won 11 of 16 days in the NBA for a 11-5 run with the PODs and we will look to keep that streak going here. Look, with Kevin McHale leading this team, the Twolves are playing great right now. Frankly, I would not want to play this team at this point. Slowly, the Twolves have built confidence and have rejuvenated their productivity. The Bucks defeated the Nets at home but will have Bogut unlikely for this game. Now, that didn't affect them in winning SU against the Nets at home but it will affect them when they are on the road at Minnesota and offense will be at a premium. These Timberwolves not only play great defense but are shooting lights out. Milwaukee is the same team that lot 92-102 to Charlotte on the road and although the Bucks have their moments, the Twolves have covered their last 6 straight and 8 of their last 9. This includes a 42 point win over OKC at home, winning Outright at Memphis by 7, defeating the Bulls on the road by 10 Outright, defeating GS at home by 7 and defeating Memphis at home in overtime as well as the Knicks on the road Outright. Folks, the Twolves are good. Look, this team has won 4 in a row and considering before they had won 6 games all year, this is incredibly significant. I don't care that the Bucks are doing well ATS this year as this is a bad spot for them as they hit the road not complete healthy and the Twolves from start to finish will play strong as they have done the last 8 of 9 games they have covered and unless the Bucks plan on shooting lights out, they can get blown out of the building as the Twolves will be fired up to play with the likes of Smith, Gomes, Telfair, Jefferson and Foye.
________________

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 34/-103 Over Play Title: OVER

Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 7* graded play OVER Baltimore/Tennessee – AIS shows an 83% probability that more than 34 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 ATS for 79% since 1997. Play over home teams where the total is 35 or less in conference games and off a road loss against a division rival. Here is a second system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% since 1997. Play over with home teams where the total is 35 or less in conference games and are off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. Here isa third system hitting 81% ATS for a 30-7 mark. Play over with road teams where the total is 35 or less after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game facing an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. Tennessee is also 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Baltimore is a solid 9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore comes into this game the hotter of the two teams having won 6 of their last 7 games. Tennessee has gone just 4-3 over their last 7 games and two of those wins were against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day and Cleveland. In only two of the last 7 games has Baltimore not scored 27 or more points. Baltimore has the personnel to effectively run a balanced offensive attack against Tennessee. They can use the power running game and play action pass to keep Tennessee defense off stride. I would not be surprised at all to see Baltimore throw on first downs far more than what has been their norm. In the first meeting Baltimore made Collins beat them and he did with a late 4th quarter drive. Yet, they know this is not the type of offense geared toward heroic 4th quarter winning drives and they must put forth a relatively unpredictable offense. Essentially run when Baltimore thinks pass and vice versa. Collins was sacked just 8 times in 15 starts this season and there is reason to believe Baltimore will not blitz choosing to stack their already strong secondary. This will provide easy underneath pass completions for Collins. There will be turnovers too in this game based on the AiS. With that said, if these turnovers occur deep in the offense’s end of the field the over will be a win by the end of the third quarter. Based on the AiS this OVER play shapes to be a potential bar burner type of game. Take the OVER.