1-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

I'm laying the points with TENNESSEE

*NFL Playoff GOY



Dr bob nfl?

NFL Best Bet Sides

2 Star Selection

??CAROLINA (-9.5) 32 Arizona 14

10-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time

Arizona was a good bet last week at home, but the Cardinals are in a tough spot this week against a rested Panthers team that applies to a very good 36-6 ATS playoff situation. Arizona played well here in a 23-27 week 8 loss as a 4 point dog, but Arizona didn't fair so well against other good teams away from home. The Cardinals played 4 road games against teams that ended the season with a winning record and they were blown out in 3 of those games – losing by 21 points at the Jets, by 28 points at Philadelphia, and by 40 points at New England – so don't put too much stock in the fact that Arizona played well here in week 8. Carolina played very well at home this season, winning their 8 home games by an average margin of 15.4 points and winning by 14 points or more against other .500 or better teams Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver and New Orleans on this field. Panthers' quarterback Jake Delhomme played much better at home (8.7 yards per pass attempt and a 100.8 QB rating) than he did on the road (7.3 ypa and a 71.4 rating) and I expect Carolina's balanced attack to perform well against a Cardinals' defense that gave up an average of 31 points on the road this season. Arizona's defense is actually slightly better than average if you exclude week 4 and 5 when star safety Adrian Wilson was out, but Carolina's attack is 0.9 yards per play better than average in the 14 games with star WR Steve Smith playing. Arizona does have an advantage with their offense (0.6 yppl better than average) going up against a Panthers' defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average, but the Cardinals' advantage disappears if WR Anquan Boldin can't play or is ineffective with this injured groin (I'll assume he's playing). My math model would favor Carolina by 9 ½ points under normal conditions but home field advantage is an additional 2.5 points in this round of the playoffs with the home teams coming off a bye, so Carolina by 12 points is what I get mathematically in this game. The 36-6 ATS situation that applies to Carolina makes the Panthers worthy of a play and I'll take Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.

NFL Strong Opinions

NY GIANTS (-4.0) 24 Philadelphia 14

11-Jan-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time

The Eagles are every bit as good as the Giants, but New York has had an extra week off and that has proven to be a significant factor in the playoffs. The oddsmakers started to adjust for the fact that home teams in this round performed better than expected and the road teams have actually covered more often in recent years. However, that has not been the case for teams that qualify in the 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Philadelphia and New York split their two games this season, with the Eagles winning here in New Jersey in week 14, but teams with revenge are 15-0 ATS in that 36-6 ATS situation, so New York should be prepared to play well. Also, when division rivals meet in the playoffs the team that lost the most recent game is 23-8-1 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of less than .700, which is the case here. These teams are even and my math model favors New York by 5 ½ points with the addition home field advantage for this round of the playoffs and the line has come down from -5 points to -4 points, so there is a little bit of line value on the side of New York in addition to the good situation. My only issue with this game is that the Eagles are 43-22-2 ATS as an underdog or pick under coach Andy Reid, including 5-1 ATS in the post-season. Philly is only 3-5 ATS as a dog or pick against a division rival with revenge, so that trend isn't enough to keep me away from favoring New York. It will, however, keep me from making the Giants at Best Bet at this price. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Giants in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.15 odds or better.

PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 24 San Diego 13

11-Jan-09 01:45 PM Pacific Time

These teams played the only 11-10 game in NFL history in week 11 here in Pittsburgh, but that game should not have been that close. Pittsburgh dominated with 410 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to 213 yards at 4.3 yppl and I think they can do it again. The Steelers defense is the single most dominating unit in this game, allowing just 3.9 yppl for the season against a schedule of teams that would combine to averaged 5.3 yppl against an average defense. San Diego's offense was 0.6 yppl better than average for the season and I rate them at 1.1 yppl better than average with Darren Sproles at running back in place of the injured and washed up LaDainian Tomlinson. As good as the San Diego offense is with Sproles getting more touches, the Steelers' defense allowed more 4.8 yppl or more just one time all season (5.3 yppl at Tennessee) and should contain that attack. Pittsburgh isn't much offensively, averaging 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack and the Chargers are average defensively, but my math model favors Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for siding with the Steelers is a 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Steelers in this game and a negative 4-21-1 ATS negative situation that applies to San Diego. The Chargers were able to win as a home underdog last week, but teams that win as a playoff home underdog are just 1-8 ATS on the road in their next playoff game. The reason I'm passing on this game as a Best Bet is because the Chargers are 19-3-2 ATS as an underdog the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS this season. My research shows that teams trends are not nearly as predictive as general situations, so the technical analysis still favors the Steelers and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ or less.

Other NFL Games

TENNESSEE (-3.0) 17 Baltimore 14

10-Jan-09 01:30 PM Pacific Time

There is no doubt that Baltimore is a better team than Tennessee right now, as the Ravens' defense has been the best in the league since star CB Samari Rolle returned to the lineup in week 10 and the offensive units are about the same, but home teams have a stronger than normal home field advantage in this round of the playoffs, and Tennessee by 3 points is a fair line. The Titans will have their two star defensive linemen Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth available to play this week and the Tennessee defense was 0.7 yards per play better than average in the 13 games in which they both played. Baltimore's offense is just average running the ball and average throwing the ball, so Tennessee's defense has an advantage in that match-up. The Titans are also mediocre offensively, rating at 0.1 yards per rushing play better than average and 0.2 yppl worse than average throwing it with Kerry Collins at quarterback (excluding their week 17 game against the Colts when they rested starters). That unit will also have a tough time moving the ball, as the Ravens' defense is 0.7 ypr better than average defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average team and an incredible 1.5 yards per pass play better than average with their current lineup in the secondary (since week 10 when Rolle came back and CB McAlister was put on IR). Overall, Baltimore is 1.1 yppl better than average defensively and the Ravens have an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game. My math model would have predicted this game even under normal circumstances, but home field advantage in this round of the playoffs, when the home team is rested, is 5 ½ points rather than the standard 3 points, so I get Tennessee by 2 ½ points mathematically. Playoff home teams that are coming off a loss are 39-22-1 ATS over the years, but that's the only significant playoff trend that applies to this game and I don't want to predict the Titans to win by more than 3 points since 3 is such a key number (nearly 10% of all games when the line is around 3 points are won by the favorite by exactly 3 points). I'll lean slightly with the Titans if the line drops to -2 ½ points and I have no opinion on the total (my math model actually projects 32.7 points, which is too close to the 34 point line to be worth betting).




Spreitzer 25* Titans



Brandon Lang

Saturday Playoff Winners

25 Dime Titans
5 Dime Over Cardinals/Panthers






Ben Burns

I'm laying the points with BAYLOR. *CBB Blowout GOW

I'm playing on the Titans and Ravens UNDER the total. *Blue Chip

I'm playing on Arizona and Carolina to finish UNDER the number. *Main Event





big al?

next reports 3:30pm




3* Washington huskies CBB

3* Carolina UNDER NFL


1* Tennessee Titans




Root
Millionaire Tenn
Chairman Carol
No Limit - No Iowa
Insiders Circle- Houston Cougars
Perfect Play- So Illinois





spritzer
knicks
butler
byu
va
richmond
cal
sd st
w va




Spreitzer Conference CBB GOY:

Florida -14




ppp

5 mich st, baylor
4 fla st, st bonny, harvard, portland (ncaa)
3 w va, byu, prov, utah st, ark st

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob

Here are the Strong Opinions and possible Best bets. Have not seen his 3 plays for today yet.

Saturday Daytime Opinions
GEORGE MASON (-5 ½) over Old Dominion
11:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 550
Old Dominion has not been as good as expected so far this season and I successfully went against the Monarchs on Wednesday night in their upset loss to James Madison. That loss as a 10 point underdog is not a good omen for ODU today as they visit a superior George Mason team that usually wins the games that they are supposed to win. The Patriots are now 85-52-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points under coach Jim Larranaga and my ratings favor George Mason by 7 ½ points.

Indiana (+18) over ILLINOIS
12:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 557
Indiana has suffered through a tough rebuilding season so far, but the Hoosiers are starting to play a little better, losing by just 5 points and 6 points in covering both of their Big 10 games so far, and Illinois has a habit of letting up as a big favorite. The Illini are just 24-36-3 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more under coach Bruce Weber and Illinois applies to a negative 48-101-5 ATS big home favorite situation that is based on their loss at Michigan in their most recent game. My ratings favor Illinois by 19 ½ points and I’m not willing to give up too much line value, so I’ll lean with the Hoosiers at +18 ½ or +18 and I’ll take Indiana in a 2-Star Best Bet at +19 points or more.

WASHINGTON (-4 ½) over California
03:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 592
My California Golden Bears are playing well above expectations under former Stanford coach Mike Montgomery, but the Bears apply to a very negative 47-117-4 ATS road letdown situation today and Washington is playing very well since losing a couple of games to Kansas and Florida over Thanksgiving. Cal still isn’t getting quite the respect they deserve, but the line has almost caught up to them, as my ratings favor Washington by 4 points in this game. The situation is worth playing if the price is fair, so I’ll lean with the Huskies at -4 ½ or -5 points and I’d take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.

Memphis (-11 ½) over CENTRAL FLORIDA
02:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 595
Memphis has a tendency to start the season slowly and then get better and better under the tutelage of John Calipari. The Tigers are just 33-37-1 ATS in the first 9 games of the season during Calipari’s tenure, but they are a much better 122-82-7 ATS from game 10 on (101-60-5 ATS when not favored by more than 16 points). This season, Memphis started 4-5 ATS in their first 9 games but, right on cue, they are 4-0 ATS since game 10. I’ll lean with Memphis at -11 ½ or less and I’d take Memphis in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3 Best Bets for Saturday daytime..

Rotation #526 Michigan State (-5 1/2) 2-Stars at -6 or less.
Rotation #553 Rhode Island (+1 1/2) 2-Stars at -1 or better.
Rotation #569 Drexel (+2 1/2) 3-Stars at +2 or more, 2-Stars down to -1

[Mr. IWS]

ppp nfl
3 carolina over

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Game: Mississippi at Florida Jan 10 2009 6:00PM
Prediction: Florida
Reason: Florida is off to an excellent start TY, with a 13-2 mark as the team gets set for its SEC opener. The only losses came 89-83 to Syracuse in Madison Square Garden and at FSU, 57-55. The Gators are still relatively young as only senior guard Hodge (7.7) and 6-8 junior Werner (10.2-4.8) are major contributors among upperclassmen. Three sophomores join Werner in the frontcourt, the 6-6 Calathes (17.0-4.4-6.7), the 6-8 Tyus (12.9-6.3) and the 6-9 Parsons (8.7-5.5). Joining Hodge in the backcourt is 5-8 freshman Walker (8.7). The Ole Miss backcourt took a HUGE 'hit' with the recent injury to Warren (19.6-4.0 APG), who is now out for the year. That leaves former-Gator Huertas (20.1-4.5), as the team's lone double-digit scorer, as 6-5 swingman Polynice (10.7-5.3-4.1 LY) was lost for the season after just one game TY. Ole Miss already lost the 6-8 Curtis (14.9-9.6) and the 6-8 Williams (8.5-6.6) to graduation, so it figures to be a 'long' SEC season for the Rebels. Florida is averaging 79.6 PPG (shoot 49 percent as a team) on the season and is 10-0 at home, barely allowing more than 60 per game. Billy Donovan's relentless presses should wreak havoc against the short-handed Rebels and in this case, "revenge" works (Gators lost 89-87 at Ole Miss last year). Lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Scotty Spreitzer 25* Bailout Blowout------stanford

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Las Vegas Insider (11-5 reg season)

The Cards went 6-0 in their own division this year (the pathetic NFC West), going 3-7 outside it, losing four games by 21 points or more. However, the franchise hosted its first home playoff game since 1947 last Saturday (can't make that up!) and beat the Falcons, 30-24. That being said, it sure helped that the Cards faced a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) and rookie head coach (Mike Smith) in that game. QB Warner was good (not great) and EJ had a second straight good game, following his 100-yard effort in Week 17 with 73 yards (16 carries) vs the Falcons. The Arizona defense "came up big" vs Atlanta's Michael Turner (held the Falcons to ) and a pass rush which had just 10 sacks over its last eight games, sacked Ryan three times. This week however, the Cards are "heading East," where they went 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS), while getting outscored 202-102. Arizona fans will note that the team's Week 8 game at Carolina was its best game in five trips to the Eastern time zone and they would be correct. Warner threw for 375 yards in that game (one of just two QBs to top 300 yards vs Carolina TY), as the Cards took a 17-3 lead before losing 27-23. Warner's had a superb season (67.1 percent / 4,583 yards / 30-14 ratio / 96.9 QB rating), topping 300 yards seven times. In Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston he's got three 1,000-yard receivers, although Boldin is not 100 percent. For some reason people are making a big deal of James' re-birth but let me point out that the Cards, the NFL's worst rushing team during the regular season (73.6 YPG / 3.5 YPC), gained just 86 yards vs the Falcons (3.5 YPC). The Panthers went 12-4 this year and own the NFL's only unbeaten home record (8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS). Jake Delhomme made a miraculous comeback from "Tommy John surgery" at QB. He threw for 3,288 yards (59.4 percent) with 15 TDs and 12 INTs (84.7 QB rating). However, it was the team's running game which 'fueled' the turnaround (7-9 LY and 8-8 in '06). DeAngelo Williams(1,515 YR / 5.5 YPC / 18 TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (836 YR / 4.5 YPC / 10 TDs) led an offense which finished third in the NFL in rushing (152.3 YPG / 4.8 YPC). The team's 30 rushing TDs were an NFL-best and Williams DOMINATED the second half of the season, topping 100 yards in SEVEN of his last nine games, while scoring 16 of his 18 rushing TDs in that span (the OL allowed just 20 sacks). WR Steve Smith caught 78 passes (18.2 YPC / 6 TDs) despite sitting out the season's first two games (suspension) while 'prodigal son' Muhammad caught 65 (14.2 YPC). Then there is John Kasay, who is a terrific kicker, having made 28-of-31 FGs this year (27-of-28 inside 50 yards). Let's get down to the "nitty gritty." The Cards are NOT a quality team, as their regular season record proves. Meanwhile, the Panthers were a missed 50-yard FG by Kasay (at the NYG) away from owning the NFC's best record. Carolina's offense (especially its running game) improved over the season's second half (offense ranked 10th overall but 5th over its final eight games) and this home playoff game is just the second in franchise history. The first came back in 2003, when the Panthers dominated the Cowboys, winning 29-10. Head coach John Fox is 5-2 SU (6-1 ATS) in the playoffs in his career (in '03 and '05), while Arizona's Whisenhunt coaches his first playoff road game. The Cards a phony team, as I've already pointed out with the team's regular season record outside of the NFC West. Now consider this stat. Since the 1970 merger (now 39 seasons), there have been 78 teams which have finished last or next-to-last in rushing yards during the regular season (Cards finished last in '08). It should come as no surprise that only 12 of those 78 teams actually reached the playoffs, with TY's Cards being one of them. Arizona joined the '78 Falcons as the only two of those 12 teams to win playoff game. The '78 Falcons bowed out in their next game and I expect the Cards to suffer a similar fate here, as they get 'exposed.'


Las Vegas Insider on the Car Panthers


Larry's 7* Bailout Blowout

Stan ***** led Arkansas to back-to-back NCAA tournaments in '06 and '07 but was fired anyway. Arkansas had trouble finding a new coach prior to last season, as some big names turned Arkansas down and then a lesser name accepted the job, only to give it up day later. The Razorbacks finally settled on John Pelphrey, a former Kentucky player who was at South Alabama. Pelphrey turned out to be a good 'fit' in Fayetteville, as the Razorbacks went 'dancing' for a third straight year in '08 and won 23 games, including a first round NCAA game. Over in Starkville, Ms, Rick Stansbury has spent 10 years at MSU winning 208 games. Like Arkansas, MSU won 23 games LY, which also included a first round NCAA victory. Entering this season, both schools had lots of question marks. Stansbury expected to lose junior Gordon (16.7.2-6.6-4.9) and the 6-8 Rhodes (17.4-7.8) was a senior but he was not expecting Ben Hansbrough (10.5-3.8-2.6) to transfer to Note Dame. The 6-9 Varnado (12.8-9.9) is back as is guard Stewart (10.6) but overall, the Bulldogs look nowhere close to the team which went 12-4 in the SEC West last year. Bost (9.3-4.3 APG) is a freshman PG and swingman Johnson (12.5-3.9) has been solid but after a 5-0 start, the Bulldogs have split their last 10 games and will open SEC play at 10-5. Arkansas lost Weems (15.0-4.5), Townes (12.1-5.5), Beverly (12.1-6.6), Ervin (9.5-3.8 APG) and Thomas (9.2-4.5) off LY's team. It's really quite a tribute to Pelphrey that some are calling Arkansas the SEC's best team. Arkansas lost at Missouri St in its third game of this season and that's it! The Bears scored the final six points to win 62-57 in that game in Springfield but the Razorbacks haven't lost since. Included in the team's 13 wins TY, are a 96-88 win over then-No. 4 Oklahoma on Dec 30 (Sooners' lone loss to-date) and a 67-61 win over No. 7 Texas this past Tuesday. Expect no "let down" here, as this is the team's SEC opener plus I'm pretty sure Arkansas didn't think the Texas win was much of an upset. This Arkansas team is good and the Razorbacks (and coach Pelphrey) know it! Two juniors, guard Welsh (14.0-3.8-2.4) and the 6-9 Washington (17.8-10.3) have been better than expected (TY especially Washington!) and the freshman have been fabulous. Fortson (15.1-5.8-7.1) is just 5-11 but "what a player!" Fellow freshman guard Clarke (12.2) isn't 'far' behind. Then there is 6-8 redshirt freshman Sanchez (6.9-4.5) plus one wonders how much better this team would be if swingmen Henry (7.0) and McDonald (4.5-5.3) could stay healthy. As is, Arkansas is clearly "the team to beat" in the West, as the Razorbacks are averaging 81.5 PPG and allowing only 68.3. Arkansas beat MSU last year on this court 78-58 and I'm not sure the slumping Bulldogs will stay any closer tonight.


Bailout Blowout on Arkansas


Larry's 8* ACC Game of the Month

Al Skinner of BC knows more than a little about coaching college basketball. The move from the Big East to the ACC didn't slow him or his team down as prior to LY's 14-17 'flop,' the Eagles have made four consecutive NCAA appearances. With only one starter gone from last season, Skinner liked his team's chances of regaining its "mojo" this year and BC enters this game 13-3 (1-0) and ranked 17th in the nation. Miami's Frank Haith led Miami to an NCAA berth last year (his fourth at the school), winning 23 games which included a first-round win in the "Big Dance." Haith has lots of depth TY with seven players averaging between 4.0 and 9.0 points. Guard McClinton (17.3) is the team's leading scorer, while the 6-8 Collins (12.0-7.9) is its best inside player. Miami is 11-3 (0-1) but the Hurricanes are still without a 'signature win,' dropping their first two games against ranked opponents TY. That includes a 91-72 loss to then-No. 25 Clemson (which is now ranked 11th at 15-0) in their ACC opener on Dec 21. However, the 'Canes have won all four games since then, holding all four of those teams under 40 percent shooting and winning the four games by an average of 29.3 PPG. Miami would likely have preferred to play BC right after its upset of then-No. 1 North Carolina but the Hurricanes get no such luck. The Eagles' won their 10th straight game last Sunday, upsetting North Carolina, 85-78, as more than a three-TD underdog. However, the inevitable "let down" came just a few days later (this past Weds), as the Eagles lost at home to Harvard, as more than two-TD favorites! The Eagles looked like a completely different team on Wednesday, allowing Harvard to shoot 50.0 percent from the field while turning the ball over 16 times. Rice (17.1-4.0-6.3), the team's best player and its senior leader, drew Skinner's wrath after the loss. He had scored 25 points against North Carolina but he managed only 14 against the Crimson, while also matching a season-low with three assists and adding five turnovers before fouling out. However, I fully expect Rice to bounce back here. He's teamed with a freshman in the backcourt (Jackson, who is averaging 7.9 PPG) and BC has size and talent in the frontcourt. The 6-8 Trapani (13.6-6.8) and the 6-10 Southern (6.1-5.9) are joined by the 6-6 Raji (12.6-7.1) and the 6-5 Sanders (11.6-4.4) to give the Eagles and impressive inside game (ask North Carolina, not Harvard). Miami has had very little success on the ACC road (just 9-23 in ACC road play since joining the conference) and that includes a 2-6 away from home mark in league games last season, when Miami had its best season since joining the ACC. The Hurricanes have lost six straight at Chestnut Hill, although they did ended a 13-game overall losing streak to BC with a 74-61 home win last March 5. Remember, these teams used to be Big East rivals before both switched to the ACC. BC remembers and "wins this one from memory," erasing the 'bad taste' of that Harvard loss by moving to 2-0 ACC play.

ACC Game of the Month on Boston College